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The Investment Blog - HolyCannoli


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The Investment Blog

 

 

 

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*NOTE: You can find a short information on merching using the ge in a spoiler at the end of this first post.

 

 

 

 

Mission Statement

 

My mission is this: I will start with roughly 450k and invest it using only the Grand Exchange. I will attempt to refrain from any other sources of wealth (mining, woodcutting, etc.) and will be giving updates as to how much money I make with each investment. I will attempt to provide tips for investing on the Grand Exchange as well as suggestions for buying and selling with each update, because the goal of this is not simply for me to make money but also to help anybody reading this get some good tips as to what are good items to invest in at what times, etc. I'd like to teach those who want to learn how to turn 450k into 10Mil, and beyond.

 

 

 

The Goal

 

My goal is to make a total of 10M specifically in investing profits, resulting in roughly 10.5M. I'm not sure how long this will take but I will do my best. This is purely experimental and so I'm not sure how well this will go, since I am using several new techniques.

 

 

Where I'm at:

 

Current Funds: 1.85Mil

 

 

 

Other Things Worth Noting

 

I am also working on photography and have inside-out knowledge of photoshop and am, as a result, quite good at sig making. My sig below is one that I made, so if you want I can probably arrange to make you a cool one. This is of course at my discretion and subject to the amount of time I have.

 

 

 

And now it begins.

 

 

 

January 15, 2010 - I'm back!

 

I've removed my current purchases from this first post. I'll put them in recent posts as they change so I don't have to keep updating this first post.

 

 

 

 

Suggestions

 

 

EDIT: No current suggestions.

 

 

 

 

Important Things

 

 

 

Grand Exchange Guide

 

This is the most important, because it contains all of the sections listed below. It can be found by going to: The runescape homepage. From there, there is a menu bar at the top. Hover the mouse over the "Game Guide" option, then move the mouse down and click on "Grand Exchange" from the menu which drops down. By clicking on an item in the guide, you can see the price history for 7 or 30 days and the current market price, market high, and market low.

 

 

 

Sections of the Grand Exchange Guide

 

 

 

Exchange Top 100 Traded List

 

This is comparable to the trade volume indication on the stock markets - it tells you how much of each item is being traded each day, and it tells you which ones are beign traded the most. The top 100 list can be found in the grand exchange guide.

 

EDIT: The page can be found here - Trade Volume

 

Thanks to bballer for that :)

 

 

 

Price Rises

 

This tells you which items have had the highest precentage rises in price, in descending order.

 

 

Price Drops

This tells you which items have had the highest precentage drops in price, in descending order.

 

 

 

Most valuable traded items

This tells you which items are sellign at the highest price. Not particularly useful for merchanting unless you a hundred million gp or more to play with (and at that point you probably don't need to merchant for money anyways).

 

 

 

Item of the Week

Displays the "Item of the Week". This weeks item is the dragon full helm, which is a good investment right now (if you can get your hands on one, the price is rising so you should make at least 200k overnight per helm).

 

 

 

*Copied from a later post:

 

K, someone asked me for this so this should give a basic understanding of merching using the GE. It's important that you read this if you want to try your hand at merching using the ge, because merching has changed a lot since it's implementation. I'll impress you with some numbers showing how much you can make when we come to the chart for cowhides.

 

The idea is to buy items while the price is low and sell them when the price is high. The price fluctuates for all items depending on the demand for those items. If there is high demand, the price goes up. If there is low demand, the price goes down. The way this works is by what items are selling for. If you can't get an item on the GE for market med., then there is a large demand and low supply. If you can buy it for market min., the supply is too high and the demand is too low. The price then drops.

 

In order to make money, you need to buy an item at a lower price than what you can sell it for. This won't work if the price is going down - if you see the price is dropping, you should'nt buy. You should buy when it starts going up. That's key, by the way. Buy when the item starts going up in price. The price of items typically fluctuate in a normal pattern - up, down, up, down, and so on and so forth. So, how do you know when the price is rising and dropping? There's an easy way to do that.

 

 

Watch The Charts

 

 

Click Here and you will find the grand exchange guide. Click on an item and a price chart will appear. Basically, the graph shows the price of an item as it changes each day. The graphs are updated daily with the price changes for that day.

 

 

 

Below you can see an example of one of these price charts. This is the chart for Adamant Armour Set (L).

 

2878c_graphimg3.gif?id=11834&scale=0

 

 

As you can see, the price chart shows rises and drops in price for the last 30 days. What you want to do it look at the price chart and see the price changes. The fluctuations here are quite small, so this is NOT a good item to invest in.

 

 

 

Below you can see the price chart for cowhides as of today.

 

Cowhides.jpg

 

Notice that the price has increased drastically. Would I buy cowhides right now? No. Look at the chart, how much it's risen. Eventually the bubble will burst and the price will drop. BUT, look at the fourth of January on the chart. You can see that the price has started to increase after leveling off. That is the correct time to buy. The price will stay the same for a day or more before rising after a price drop. You can see the price going down (yellow line - ignore the blue one) for the days leading up the January fourth. Then, the price stays the same for a day - see where the line is flat right before jan. 4th? You want to buy as soon as the price starts to rise.

So what do you do?

 

You buy cowhides at that crucial point. Or, buy whatever it is you're investing in. It doesn't matter what it is, really. Buy as many as you feel is safe.

 

 

Do The Math

 

I said I was going to try and impress you with numbers to show how profitable this can be, so here we go.

 

On Jan. 4 cost 200GP Each. Let's say my name is Jim, and I have 10Mil to invest. I decide to buy cowhides on Jan 4.

 

I buy them at the market medium price (200GP Each); I spend all 10Mil on cowhides.

 

It is now the 14th of January, and my investment has turned out to be a good one. Cowhides are soaring (which is true - these charts aren't old, I copied them from the site as I was writing this).

 

Now it comes time to sell my investment. The price is still rising, so i may be able to sell them at the market Max price. However, they don't sell (which means the price could drop soon), so I try market medium price.

 

I manage to sell all of my cowhides at the market price as of Jan 14, which is 231GP Each.

 

That is an increase of 15.5% using the real numbers from recent days.

 

So how much did I make? Well, I invested 10Mil, so I made 15.5% on my investment. That equals about........1.5Mil?!?

 

Indeed.

 

Before you get too excited, though, notice that I invested 10Mil. What if I had only invested 1Mil? I would have made a meager 150k. If you've only got 1Mil, 150k is still significant, but you need to understand that in order to make big money as a merchant, you need to first acquire sufficient funds. Those who have money make money.

 

 

 

I hope this helps you mate, if you've got any questions send me a message in game or make an account and post here and I'll answer as soon as I'm on.

 

 

 

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WOW! you are awesome i could NEVER have the patience to merch with the ge...

Is Back After About 2 Months!!

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OUR MAIN JOB IS NOT TO SEE WHAT LIES DIMLY IN THE DISTANCE, BUT TO DO WHAT LIES CLEARLY AT HAND

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lol ty

 

 

 

I hope that this blog can be to the benifit of many, not just me. I find that the G E is a good way to make money without actually doing anything, lol.

 

 

 

Update

 

No purchases made today. The above tips still reman true; now is not a good time to sell them, because even though you will make a small profit, the prices are still rising. Lobsters have risen to 226 Each, another 2 gp per item, and clay has made another rise of 1 gp today. Within a week I am expecting clay to peak at around 106, so depending on when and how you invest you can make 4-6% profit from this. It could go higher, possibly even lower, but that's my estimate. I'll keep an eye on it, though, because the price increase has slowed - this might indicate a drop in price soon, though I doubt it because of the items price history.

 

 

 

As predicted yesterday, the rising price of clay has stopped the decline in price of soft clay. Today the price continued at 170, showing no decline from yesterday and possibly pulling out of it's downward slump. The price has in the past gone as high as 185, so, if the price of clay continues to rise, soft clay could turn into a promising investment.

 

 

 

Something Worth Noting

 

I forgot to mention, I'm only using F2P. I'll give updates on good member items to purchase once in a while, but for the moment I'll be only buying and selling F2P items to achieve my first goal.

 

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Market Updates

 

 

 

Yew Logs

 

Yew logs are, for the moment, dropping daily. It would be wise to not go near them unless you can afford a loss. They've been falling since the 24th, and are at their lowest price since before January 4th. It would be a good idea to keep an eye, because if the drop slows

 

and begins to turn into a rise, but even then the profit margins would be too low for any real profit because of their high base price.

 

 

 

Death Runes

 

Death Runes just pulled out of a slump yesterday with a sudden rise to 258 gp each. In the past, prices have soared as high as 277 - now would be a good time to buy, since the sudden price rise indicates that the trend will continue up to 265 gp each within two or three days, and hopefully even higher. As an added bonus, Death Runes were among the top 100 traded items yesterday, indicating a demand for the product. This should push up prices further, especially as people notice this trend and the trade volume increases. This should also make it easy to buy and sell quickly. Watch out, though: when prices start to near the peak, you'll want to sell them immediately. If you are satisfied with profits after a few days then you should sell, because when the price starts to drop every investor who purchased them will suddenly dump all of their runes onto the Exchange - this will push the price down really quickly because the demand will have gone and there will be a surpplus of the item availabe. This will also make death runes extremely hard to sell, which is why it's important to drop your product before the price drop happens. If you can sell before the price stops increasing, it will likely be to your benifit.

 

 

 

If the price doesn't stop increasing on any item, watch out because it's often because of this principle. When the bubble bursts the price will plummet and your stock will be near impossible to sell since the market will be so flooded, plus there will be no demand from those investing their gp in items.

 

 

 

Lobster

 

Now is a bad time to buy lobster. The price has been rising, but the increase in price is starting to smooth off so the price might stabilize and drop. The price is nearing it's peak, so the time to sell is coming soon - three more days if the price slope doesn't increase more after tomorrow, but possibly less. If the price remains constant between today and tomorrow, it's time to dump yoru lobsters onto the exchange. This will push the price down, and other people investing in lobsters will be doing this, so you'll want to make sure you don't leave it until it's too late.

 

 

 

The price doesn't change during the day, but the demand certainly does. If an item smooths off, it might be a good idea to get your lobsters on the exchange in the morning so that yours will be some of the first to sell. If you wait until the night, you might find your lobsters not selling until the day later (don't remove them from the exchange and lose your place in line, just don't touch them ocne they're in unless the price falls to far and you want to wait until the next price increase to sell) and then you're profits will decrease. If they don't sell fast enough, you might even show a loss! :o

 

 

 

Raw Tuna

 

The price has been increasing for a couple days now, and the trade volume is high. As you know, if you've read my other posts and suggestions, this is a good thing. Unfortunately you've already missed the trough so profits won't be as high now if you purchase them today. Sorry - I should have picked up on that one yesterday or the day before, but two days ago I hadn't started this blog so it wouldn't have helped you anyways (although yesterday might have been nice).

 

 

 

*Raw Tuna are not a recommended investment: I'm putting this information up to help anybody readign this learn to make moeny on the exchange. If you invest in Raw Tuna right now, though, it might turn out to be extremely difficult to sell. Sorry, but I haven't bought or sold any of these, so I can't comment on the ease of purchase and sale, but I'm jsut letting you know that you should test and make sure that you'll be able to sell them relatively easily once you've bought them. Always do this with items before investing; if you get stuck with an item you can't sell then you're probably going to lose money by holding onto the item while the price drops. I'm pointing out some good investments, but also I'm pointing out bad ones and how you can tell them and, then, avoid them accordingly.

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Updates

 

No purchases or sales today.

 

 

 

Market Updates

 

Lobsters are still continuing to rise, going up another 2gp today for a total of 226 (market price). Still holding on for the ride, don't let go of your lobsters yet because the price still seems to be rising. I would be surprised if they held on for another two days, but we'll see how well this goes. At this point you can sell if you want, but I suggest waiting because the price appears to be going up still.

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lol spoiling all the items? If there are many people ofllowing this blog and exploiting the price rises I warn you about, that will actually be good for you. I know it's good for me, because I always buy my items before posting them. If you're good at this and you buy your items early, then when people buy all of these items that I "spoiled", the purchases will make the prices rise faster.

 

 

 

So if you look at it that way, it's actually better for me to spoil the items. The prices will rise on items you've purchased because of it.

 

 

 

Updates

 

Sold: 2544 Lobster, 226 Each

 

Cash: 576K

 

 

 

EDIT

 

 

 

Purchases in progress: 18,000 Oak Logs, 32 gp Each, 576k Total Price (I'm going to try and pull of a few extra cents per log, I'm hoping that I can sell them when the price rises though because if it doesn't I'm stuck with them for an extra week or longer until the next cycle).

 

 

 

*I sold some coal that was in my bank, unfortunately I didn't record it, but that is why the increase in profit from strictly market selling is not 100% accurate (I know I said I wouldn't do that but I lied).

 

 

 

I have decided that the profit margin on lobsters is far too low and, though I'll be makign a profit, I can probably increase the speed by 50% or more by buying a higher quantity of less expensive items. Remember: Quantity, not quality!

 

 

 

Oak Logs:

 

 

 

I didn't see this coming, and that's my fault - Oak logs made a huge jump over the night, a jump of about 20%. That would have been nice but unfortunately I missed it - due to duer to previous prices, though, it may still be possible to scrape off 10% (which isn't great, but good enough to not complain about it). The price is fairly low so a rise of 5 gp makes a big difference. Market price rose to 32, so hopefully, if they are relatively easy to sell, the price will rise like it has in the past - up to 37.

 

 

 

EDIT: I have done a test, and oak logs are relatively easy to sell right now. They're a little more difficult to get a hold of, but that's ok - I'm just leaving my trade on and going for lunch and I should have 18k logs in a couple hours. I'll dump them onto the exchange either tomorrow or the day after.

 

 

 

WARNING

 

If you buy oak logs like this, then be wary. With large sudden price rises like this, sometimes the price will drops really quickly after it starts to go up. If this happens then everybody will dump their logs onto the exchange and they might become hard to sell. Plus, you might end up losing money if you buy them and then sell them for less than you bought. It would probably be better to hold onto them until the next rise than to sell them back on the cheap - don't take a price loss. They're logs, they won't suddenly become useless in RS, the price is going to come back up eventually.

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General Update

 

I've purchased most of my logs, and I'll be selling them either tomorrow or the day after, depending on whether price stabilizes or continues to increase.

 

 

 

Purchased: 16,544 Oak Logs, 32 Each

 

 

 

Employment Update

 

I have come up with a new, relatively easy, way for low level players to make money whilst helping me reach my profit goal. I have started to employ low level characters to gather items which I will buy at market price, items such as the oak logs I am purchasing right now. I have started gathering employees to help me with this, and also, I will help them make some easy money. I always buy at market price, because I only buy when the price is low and sell when the price is high.

 

 

 

I am currently offering employment to those who can cut large amounts of oak logs.

 

 

 

Progress and employee numbers:

 

Character names have been ommitted from this lsit for obvious reasons.

 

 

 

Woodcutting

 

Char 1

 

Char 2

 

 

 

Fishing

 

 

 

Mining

 

 

 

Total Employees: 1

 

 

 

 

 

Market Update

 

 

 

Sell your lobsters!

 

 

 

I sold mine this morning before the update for a price of 226 gp Each, and today the price dropped down to 225 gp Each. If this happened to you, then don't worry about it - you've still made money. You'll probably have a harder time selling them, now, but lobsters are in constant demand so they shouldn't really be a pain to sell. You'll want to get your lobsters on the exchange right now, because you need to sell them now if you don't want to have to wait for the next rise in price. If you don't put them on the exchange now, then you might end up holding onto them into tomorrow and the price will start to decrease more by then - if that's the case there's a good chance you'll show a loss.

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Update

 

I never got a hold of 18k Oak Logs. I did, however, get 16k.

 

 

 

Purchased: 16k Oak Logs, 32 Each

 

Sold: 16k Oak Logs, 34 Each

 

 

 

I'm woosing out on this one a little bit, because the price has slowed and in the past the price hasn't really levelled off a whole lot, it just seems to go into a descent. Since the increase was only 1 gp each today (I sold mine at max price, 34) the price increase could be slowing. If you want to be brave then go buy a bunch of oak logs - this will help push the price up anyways - and the price might increase by tomorrow.

 

 

 

Cash: 625k

 

 

 

Market Update

 

 

 

Clay

 

As predicted, clay continues to increase, which has also brought up the price of soft clay. I'm not sure how long this trend will continue, but based on the trends I'm noticing in all of the items, we can probably expect it to start dropping before it reaches 109 (right now it's 103, so if you make 6 gp each? That's not bad).

 

 

 

Cow Hides

 

Cow hides are at the beginning of an increase and appeared on the top 100 traded list this morning - to be honest, I haven't seen it there before, but it ver ywell could have been. You'll want to get your hands on quite a few, which will be difficult because cowhides are now in high demand and low supply. The good news about that is if you can get your hands on a few, the price is going to continue going up and you should make some money. They have gone as high as 131 in the past month, and are now selling at a mere 113 - this is a good thing for anybody who is looking to make some good money. If the price continues to rise and eventually reach even 130, that's 17 gp per hide and a hefty increase in the terms of percent - especially if you buy right now when they're 113.

 

 

 

Lobsters

 

Lobsters continue to drop, as do most fish, makign them a poor investment at the moment but definitely something to watch out for in the near future. I'd stay away from them for now, and even if you're just fishing them, if you can wait a week to ten days you'll make more when you sell them.

 

 

 

Law Runes

 

After a short decrease, the price of law runes has stabilized and will probably start to go up soon (although in the past the price has stabilized and then the price experienced a small drop before going back up again). Soemthign to keep an eye on, but the price is fairly high so a large profit is probably unrealistic.

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lol ty for mentioning it.

 

 

 

I went back and checked it, that's actually a V. I could barely tell them apart when I typed out the V and B beside eachother, but that one's the V. Stupid that they make them so close lol, the two normally really don't look anything alike.

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lol ty for mentioning it.

 

 

 

I went back and checked it, that's actually a V. I could barely tell them apart when I typed out the V and B beside eachother, but that one's the V. Stupid that they make them so close lol, the two normally really don't look anything alike.

 

 

 

weird V :shock:

 

 

 

EDIT: got 2k cowhides myself now ::'

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lol k =)

 

 

 

One thing to keep in mind (I mention it because I made this mistake myself today) is that when you buy something, you have to wait four hours before you can sell it.

 

 

 

Also I hope I'm right then lol

 

 

 

yeah, me too... But luckily my loss won't be too big if you're wrong ::'

 

 

 

EDIT: where do you find that top 100 sales list of yours?

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Oh God, I forgot to mention that in my intro didn't I? I'll just add all that stuff in here right now.....(by the way, I sold all of my cowhides for max price [119 gp Each] and you might want to do the same, just re-buy later tonight before the price increases - it'll give you an extra couple K).

 

 

 

I have posted this on my original post

 

 

 

Important Things

 

 

 

Grand Exchange Guide

 

This is the most important, because it contains all of the sections listed below. It can be found by going to: The runescape homepage. From there, there is a menu bar at the top. Hover the mouse over the "Game Guide" option, then move the mouse down and click on "Grand Exchange" from the menu which drops down. By clicking on an item in the guide, you can see the price history for 7 or 30 days and the current market price, market high, and market low.

 

 

 

Sections of the Grand Exchange Guide

 

 

 

Exchange Top 100 Traded List

 

This is comparable to the volume indication on the stock markets - it tells you how much of each item is being traded each day, and it tells you which ones are beign traded the most. The top 100 list can be found in the grand exchange guide.

 

 

 

Price Rises

 

This tells you which items have had the highest precentage rises in price, in descending order.

 

 

 

Price Drops

 

This tells you which items have had the highest precentage drops in price, in descending order.

 

 

 

Most valuable traded items

 

This tells you which items are sellign at the highest price. Not particularly useful for merchanting unless you a hundred million gp or more to play with (and at that point you probably don't need to merchant for money anyways).

 

 

 

Item of the Week

 

Displays the "Item of the Week". This weeks item is the dragon full helm, which is a good investment right now (if you can get your hands on one, the price is rising so you should make at least 200k overnight per helm).

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Market Update

 

Cowhides

 

As predicted, cowhides have gone up. They rose by 1 gp this morning to 114 gp Each (market price). If you want to make a good profit relatively fast, sell your cowhides now at max price (which is 120 Each) and then buy them back again with the money you made but make sure you buy them at market price (which is 114 each). I've done it this morning once already, so in 4 hours I'll be able to do it again (4 hours since the market purchase limit). I also did this yesterday, which I may have forgotten to mention. That's why i've got 5.8k hides listed belwo instead of the original 5.5k.

 

 

 

Clay

 

As prediceted, clay continues to rise, bringing with it the price of soft clay. Clay has risen to 104, and soft clay has risen to 181. if you bought some when I made the prediction, congrats! Now get ready yo sell it because this won't last - clay rose to 110 in the past, but giong by current price trends, it will stop short of 107. With that beign said, there will be a short lag in price difference before soft clay starts to fall as well, probably a day.

 

 

 

Oak Logs

 

Oak logs continue to rise! however the price is levelling off. My estimate is that the price will peak at no more than 35 gp Each (market price). At the moment they stand at 34 gp each, rising 1 gp from yesterday. Now is a bad time to buy, but it would be a good time to sell considering the price has gone up around 30% since February 3rd (only four days ago). Sell them either today or tomorrow if you bought any, because I'm guessing that the price rise is nearing completion (if it's not already there).

 

 

 

Lobster

 

Lobster is still dropping, now getting as low as 221, so it would be a good idea to keep an eye on it. The price will probably level off in the next couple days. The trend is pretty much constant throughout almost all fish prices.

 

 

 

*Flax

 

The price of flax has dropped to 85, it's lowest price in over a month. Keep an eye on it, because you should buy lots when the price levels off. If the price seems unstable then wait until the first sign of a rise before purchasing, then get your hands on as much as you can because it's always in high demand and the price could rise as high as 91. Good investment if you have over 1 Mil to invest.

 

 

 

Update

 

Sold: Roughly 5.8k Cowhides, 120 Each

 

Cash Return: 697K

 

Purchases in progress: 6.1k Cowhides, 114 Each

 

 

 

In case you haven't noticed yet, my plan today is to buy and sell cowhides not just using the price fluctuaiton, but the max and min market prices. I've learned that I can buy many cowhdies for market price, then resell them for max price because there is demand but a relatively low supply. This also helps push the price up, because I'm forcing sales at a price higher than the market price. Once I've purchased my 6.1k Cowhides, I'll wait the 4 hour limit and sell them for 120 Each. Then I'll buy more back for 114 Each, and either repeat the process once more (depending on if I have time, I probably won't though) or hold onto them until tomorrow morning when the market price shoud rise to 115 (if it follows the current trend) or even higher.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Members

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lol k, I hope I don't screw up then :thumbsup: The first mil is always slow and I'm going mad...I'm up to 700k though so I can't complain.

 

 

 

Update

 

I can't get a hold of any mroe cowhides so unfortunately that cash cow is closed to me unless I can find somebody who is selling them.

 

EDIT: For some reason I couldn't get any cowhides, maybe I had just exceeded the limit for the time period and now the time period is up. Either way, I can get cowhides now so i'm buying 6.1k.

 

 

 

Purchases in progress: 6.1k Cowhides, 114 Each (Price - Roughly 695k)

 

 

 

Market update

 

Salmon

 

Salmon have started to increase! They're on the top 100 and the price is increasing. It seems to be one of the only fish which is good to invest in right now, but there's a slight wrinkle with this one: It's in extremely low demand. Of course, this will push the price up quickly because people who need them will buy at a price higher than the market medium, but it's a problem if you need to buy at market price (like we do in order to make money). The good news is that the demand is high so there's super easy to sell, and that will push the price up (they're low in price so price increases like the oens in the past can mean BIG profits).

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I've decided to speed things up a little bit. The first mil is always fairly slow, so I'm going to mine a little bit. This will bring my cash up a bit so I can really start spiralling my profits - that way I can reach the goal quite quickly.

 

 

 

What I mean by spiralling is this:

 

If I have 100k and I make 10% on my profits, I'll have 110k. A ten percent increase. Good percent, but 10k isn't a whole lot of money.

 

If I have 600k and I make 10%, I'll end up with 660k. Even though the percent stays the same, I've made 60k instead of 10k because I have more moeny to play with.

 

If I get my money up to 1Mil, then for every 10% I make I'll make 100k, and then next time I invest I'll make 110k (since I'll be investing 1.1Mil isntead of 1Mil). Then I do that again, and I've got 1.21Mil. It spirals upwards.

 

 

 

Update

 

Purchases in progress: 6k Cowhides

 

Expense: Rune Pickaxe

 

 

 

EDIT:

 

Update

 

Purchases completed: 6k Cowhides

 

Other Income: 20k (mining)

 

Sales: Rune Pickaxe, 19k

v178InvestmentBlog.jpg
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