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Grand Exchange: Your thoughts?


ego_scorpion

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wonderful read. =D>

 

 

 

One thing though, that has always made me think lately about the market, is, do we know for sure if every item will have a set price to sell?

 

 

 

That would curb Brianite3's merchanting idea.

 

so instead of nats being sold at any price you set, the grand exchange says it can only be sold at 300.

 

 

 

or, even better, what if they have a price cap, so nats can be sold at 300 or less.

 

that way people who want to sell their items fast will be able to undercut the common 300each nature runes, but if someone was to buy them all out, the highest they could ever possibly go is 300each.

 

 

 

of course, I would believe they would give it alot for headroom then capping it off at 300, but anything over common prices of today would probably be the cap.

 

 

 

So the way I see it is this, the grand exchange can one of three ways.

 

 

 

1) You can name any price you want to, and it will be fine for a little bit, but then the rich merchants will start owning whole markets and everything will be alot more expensive.

 

 

 

2) You can name your own price, up to a certain point, so, for the sake of argument, lets say the cap on nat prices can be as high as 350 each, and as low as 250 each. Letting the seller have a choice between earning the most money over a long term time frame, depending on demand, or, making less money in a shoter time frame, depending on demand.

 

 

 

3) You CANNOT name your own price, the grand exchange will sell at the set price it sees fit, say.. 350 for nature runes, no ifs, ands, or buts, about it.

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, I haven't really seen anyone else think about that, so maybe I'm utterly wrong, or I missed something about the pricing when first told about the GE. If so, please prove me wrong, I'm rather curious as to how the pricing will work.

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Very nice read, love the site. :)

 

 

 

I am planning on unloading ~40mill worth of stuff that i've gotten from skilling onto the exchange, i don't care if prices drop, since the time saved in selling (if it works how i hope) far outweighs the lowered cash return. Should be good fun ^_^

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if the rich merchants buy up all of one market, thats where the forums come in and old fashion trading, to under cut them. I don't think it would be possible to buy up a whole market and come out ahead. I think the merchants will just buy the cheaper listed goods and repost them at normal cost.

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The way I think it will work, they will transform Varrock's west bank into the Grand Exchange, to list an item for sale it will have to be in your bank

 

 

 

This would get rid of many problems you talked about

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I usually just close the tab when I see a long article, but I read the whole thing this time. I cant believe I thought the whole economy would collapse before I read this. It's reassuring when someone as smart as you shuts down all of the conspiracy theorists who just prey on gullible people.

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I applaud you to for finaly writing an intellectual response and interpretation of the Grand Exchange.

 

 

 

I also learned that I'm what you call a "good" merchant and not an evil nub merchant. :thumbsup:

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Nicely written and I agree with all points. I wrote a reply on another thread that was similar, especially the part about the people who always cry that the market is going to crash. People always say that but it never happens. :wall:

 

 

 

I do predict two things: bugs and scammers. Price manipulation will also be more of a threat since more people will use the GE than the forums.

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I'm sure you could have written some things a bit shorter, but oh well, overall I agree on most of it.

 

 

 

The GE is also going to lead to changes in prices

 

 

 

I still don't think the GE will actually have such a big impact on the prices of most items though. Sure, it will probably effect items that were not really traded before. Those markets generally aren't so large though and usually that is not because the trading process is inefficient, but because the gathering process is inefficient in itself. So I guess we may see several, relatively useless, TT items drop in value and several raw materials that were previously difficult to get in masses rise in price. That may in turn effect the prices of other items, but really, I don't expect the overall effect to be all that impressive. This update will also further assert that runite items will be trading more towards their intrinsic (high alch) value.

 

 

 

The classical example of a merchant is someone who simply buys something cheap from one player and sells it to another for a higher price.

 

 

 

These merchants profit from the natural price ranges that exist on all items at all times, no matter how efficient the market is. The price ranges will be smaller as a result of the GE update, but the reachable market will be MUCH wider and will compensate partly for the smaller price ranges.

 

 

 

Some merchants specialize in buying small quantities of items for low prices and then reselling them in bulk for high prices to skillers and others who donÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t want to waste time collecting them.

 

 

 

This is going to depend completely on the way the GE is implemented exactly. I actually expect this type of merchanting to suffer most, since the GE will probably make it MUCH easier to buy the preferred amount in various smaller quanities - hence largely removing the "upmark" for bulk sales.

 

 

 

Apart from the two types you describe, the GE will probably mean the rise of what I will loosely call the "time-gap merchant". Prices on items vary throughout the day, most succesful discontinued item merchants have noticed that long before already. As a result of the GE this effect may now be more visible in raw materials and other items as well. Merchants will make use of this new arbitrage opportunity to profit. Again, it depends on how the GE will work exactly, but from what I have observed in other MMOG's that have auction systems, the time-gap merchanting is a very profitable business and one that most former merchants will be going into.

 

 

 

I believe good merchants are among the smartest players in the game, and I have no doubt that these folks will quickly adapt to the changes, dropping old merchanting techniques that no longer work and developing new ones that do.

 

 

 

Yup. I think the best merchants will actually profit more from the change as a result of the initial inability of other merchants to adapt to the new conditions.

 

 

 

It would also be nice to see the game change so that people who wonÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t work on skills are no longer able to automatically make millions any time they want just by standing in a bank buying and reselling things, which was never good for the game to begin with.

 

 

 

You are triviliazing former merchanting too far here and it goes towards jealousy. The statement that these merchants "were never good for the game to begin with" is extremely opinionated as well and I strongly disagree. Furthermore, it is rather contradictionary with what you said earlier as well: that many of these merchants existed to fill the market inefficienty involved in the current system.

 

 

 

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really good thread to read. Long, yes, but highly interesting. I agree with the points that you make, the one thing that you don't really discuss is the effect of people trying to monopolize a particular market. Trying to corner the natures market for example is going to be extremely difficult as there is always going to be a huge supply coming in from runecrafters. Merchanters who try this may find themselves making a big loss, unless they find a good item to try and get monopoly on.

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Thanks for all the replies and comments everyone, much appreciated.

 

 

 

A few replies...

 

 

 

 

Say a person whos really rich (like 1B+) wants to make some money and have some fun controling an entire market. ... He uses his vast money supplies, and buys all the nat runes on the list less than 300e. Then markets them all 300e. Now the entire market of nat runes under 300 is under control of one person. And making 10-20gp per rune selling them back, he gets TONS of profit since theres thousands of nats being sold at a time.

 

What you are describing is called cornering the market. It has a lot of people concerned but in practice it won't happen. Here's why.

 

 

 

First, in order to do this, the people must have a way of monopolizing the entire market for the item. With something like nats that will be virtually impossible. A billion gold sounds like a lot, but that's only around 3 million runes, which is only a few thousand players spending 1 hour each runecrafting. The market is MUCH larger than that.

 

 

 

If he tries doing this and runs out of money, he won't move the market and will be stuck with a huge stockpile of runes that he'll have to dump at a loss.

 

 

 

Second, as swordwarior said, remember that the GE will supplement other methods of trading, not replace them. If the price of nats drives up on the GE, people will stop buying there and will buy in other places.

 

 

 

Third, assuming Jagex is smart about how they design this, you will be able to list items you want to buy in addition to ones you want to sell. Suppose this guy did buy out all the runes for sale and then was the only seller and listed them at 300. Buyers who didn't want to pay 300 would make offers like "buying 10k nats 285 ea". Sellers would take these offers directly and cut the wanna-be monopolist out entirely.

 

 

 

 

The way I think it will work, they will transform Varrock's west bank into the Grand Exchange, to list an item for sale it will have to be in your bank. This would get rid of many problems you talked about

 

 

Could be. Interesting theory.

 

 

 

Duke, thanks for the detailed replies.

 

 

 

 

Those markets generally aren't so large though and usually that is not because the trading process is inefficient, but because the gathering process is inefficient in itself.

 

 

Have to disagree with you here. There are many markets that I believe don't exist, or exist but are miniscule, only because right now there is no way for the small numbers of buyers and sellers to find each other.

 

 

 

Examples: good alternative food items (pineapple pizzas, various types of potatoes etc.), chompy meat (lots of cooks want them but chompy hunters often don't know they are wanted), low-level herb seeds (high level players have tons but can't be bothered trying to sell them), mid-level slayer drops (addy boots, etc.) and a lot more.

 

 

So I guess we may see several, relatively useless, TT items drop in value and several raw materials that were previously difficult to get in masses rise in price.

 

 

Yes.. and also, finished goods are going to drop in price. Especially at first, because of people dumping their banks. It may be a good time to buy up some of these items if you need them (gold bars, cooked low-level fish etc.)

 

 

These merchants profit from the natural price ranges that exist on all items at all times, no matter how efficient the market is. The price ranges will be smaller as a result of the GE update, but the reachable market will be MUCH wider and will compensate partly for the smaller price ranges.

 

 

Not necessarily.

 

 

 

The profit a merchant makes is directly a function of how inefficient the market is. Furthermore, if there are fees to use the exchange, those may eat up any small profit that merchants may make -- end buyers and sellers usually won't care much about paying 3% or whatever for the convenience, but to merchants that could put them out of business.

 

 

You are triviliazing former merchanting too far here and it goes towards jealousy. The statement that these merchants "were never good for the game to begin with" is extremely opinionated as well and I strongly disagree. Furthermore, it is rather contradictionary with what you said earlier as well: that many of these merchants existed to fill the market inefficienty involved in the current system.

 

 

I perhaps was unclear. What I really meant was that it was not good for the game to require people to fill that role.

 

 

 

As for jealousy, yawn. There's nothing to be jealous of.

 

 

While an understanding of markets, finance and economics is necessary to make any theoretical predictions, a lack of practical experience is just as much of a short comming.

 

 

Well.. there are a lot of people with experience in the RS markets who are screaming about crashes, but I've never met anyone who knew about economics who would agree even if they had never played the game. So I'll have to disagree here.

 

 

I don't agree with this. Price elasticity is largely a theoretical concept and it completely ignores the massive psychology involved in markets, especially on the short-term.

 

 

Price elasticity is not a "largely theoretical concept". It is a simplified concept to which other factors apply, such as you said, but it is real and is what forces markets to equilibrium.

 

 

In practice, if people actually observe falling prices, they ARE more inclined to sell for a lower price - that is not based on economic principles, but rather on psychologic principles. Market madness and lemming behaviour certainly effects the market.

 

 

You are right that this comes into effect in some situations, but usually only in markets that are either new or already volatile. For example, we saw some of this "panic dumping" earlier in the year when shark prices started to go down. But this is the exception to the rule. In most cases, shifts in the prices of basic goods will cause changes in demand and supply to counteract them, like the examples I gave.

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Congratulations, a very well written article! First of all, let me just say that, regardless of me agreeing with your oppinions or not, I simply love your articles. Well thought of, well written, they always push the reader to think about things (s)he's usually ignoring. Well done again and keep up the good work, I look forward to your posts/articles.

 

 

 

Back to the topic, while I generally agree with the points you made, there is a point I'm going to underline. It is similar to what Duke Freedom was saying concerning the "lemmings":

 

 

 

Good real-world economists are also pshychologist or sociologists. While the economics could do wonders by predicting behaviours using "incentives", a little (mass) psychology is needed too. I really think everything will happen like you said, but after a small transitional period. Some people will be afraid - the same lemmings that cry out loud the economy crashes - and they will not act very rationally, at least for a while. Behind every character there is a human being and I *know* how responsive the humans are to a crowd effect, how a feeling (usually of panic, fear) can spread out even not grounded on physical facts.

 

 

 

Basically, what I'm trying to say is that, for a few days, maybe one week, there will be a little chaos, but then things will get back to normal. Some people will find the new normal better, some worse, like you analysed it. Some will try to take advantage of the transitional period and some will succeed and others will fail... But that's how life *goes*.

 

 

 

After all, I consider myself lucky: unlike real life, in this game I have been warned of a significant change that will happen in my "world". If I consider myself a rational person, it will be my fault and only mine if I fail to adapt to this change. Nothing stays the same for ever...

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Examples: good alternative food items (pineapple pizzas, various types of potatoes etc.), chompy meat (lots of cooks want them but chompy hunters often don't know they are wanted), low-level herb seeds (high level players have tons but can't be bothered trying to sell them), mid-level slayer drops (addy boots, etc.) and a lot more.

 

 

 

I understand the point and agree with it partly, but I don't expect that there will "suddenly" be a huge market for an item that didn't have a market before. I just don't see why you think that people will "suddenly" be starting to make masses of pineapples, potatoes, etc? If that is going to happen then why aren't people making masses of them already?

 

 

 

Yes, you say because there is a lack of demand - but I do have to point out that lack of demand is caused mostly by a lack of supply. If people could more easily buy bulks of pineapples then I'm sure there would be much more demand as well - i.e. supply creates demand with these items (this is related to the fact that people want to buy items in bulk). Therefore I still think the problem lies mainly in the production of such items. It is simply not efficient to produce them - and the GE won't change that.

 

 

 

Low-level herbs and addy boots may be a different story going off on what you say - as that are apparently items that are gathered (for "free") but never sold due the inefficiency of selling them. I'm sure the market on such items will become larger, but I doubt it will be all that impressive. Furthermore, the price on such items will certainly become (much) lower and items like addy boots are bound to fall down to their high alch values in near to no time (if they aren't already), because there is probably an oversupply of them.

 

 

 

Either way, the liquidity on all those "unpopular" items will still improve significantly and that will be handy for anyone buying/selling any of them.

 

 

 

The profit a merchant makes is directly a function of how inefficient the market is. Furthermore, if there are fees to use the exchange, those may eat up any small profit that merchants may make -- end buyers and sellers usually won't care much about paying 3% or whatever for the convenience, but to merchants that could put them out of business.

 

 

 

Transaction fees themself create market inefficiency, however. I have actually played a game that had a stock market like trading system and transaction fees (only selling fees) of 5%. The price ranges on items were oftenly still large enough to be "merchantable". Especially if you add in the time merchanting I talked about.

 

 

 

What I really meant was that it was not good for the game to require people to fill that role.

 

 

 

Well if those people who fill in that "job" enjoy it, I don't really see the issue, but I guess agree with the conclusion that a more sophisticated trading system (i.e. the GE) is preferred. From the point of view of "realism" or "human interaction" one may argue that the current stone-age trading system is "better" though. :P

 

 

 

Well.. there are a lot of people with experience in the RS markets who are screaming about crashes, but I've never met anyone who knew about economics who would agree even if they had never played the game.

 

 

 

Those are people with a lot of experience in RS merchanting (which doesn't necessarily require much knowledge of economics at all), not with RS markets. Anyway, what I ment is that theory and practice don't always agree. Many economic theories make all kind of idealized assumptions that simply don't hold at all or don't hold completely in practice. Throughout the years I've seen people who said to have all kinds of economic educations claim the weirdest things that were simply not true.

 

 

 

And I'm fairly sure I have seen you make various of such claims as well. I believe you posted at the other thread that according to you the whole rares market in RS doesn't even represent 1% of all items in the game. Without proof or any calculations, I may add.

 

 

 

Price elasticity is not a "largely theoretical concept". It is a simplified concept to which other factors apply, such as you said, but it is real and is what forces markets to equilibrium.

 

 

 

Price elasticity shows what a certain change in price is expected to mean for the demand of the item, according to the demand curve. Psychologic behaviour is not accounted for at all. Sure the factors I mentioned "apply" to / change the demand curve and thus the price elasticity, but that is something completely different than saying the price elasticity actually explains the price fluctuations. Psychology explains them, not economics.

 

 

 

You are right that this comes into effect in some situations, but usually only in markets that are either new or already volatile. For example, we saw some of this "panic dumping" earlier in the year when shark prices started to go down. But this is the exception to the rule.

 

 

 

And I was talking more about the rares market there anyway. Raw material markets are generally much more stable due to the intrinsic / practical value matter I already mentioned in the previous post. However, the GE may (temporarily) distort the supply & demand of more items and as such temporary market madness could arise. Personally, I still don't really expect all that much to happen though.

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Merchants

 

 

 

The merchants that you said that provide a useful service, by buying a lot of something and then selling, to save time, will be the first ones out of buisness. Ok, I spent 2 weeks buying yew logs, now I have 100k yew logs. I go to GE and I put them up for lets say 310 ea, with average price being 300 ea. Figured id make an easy mil by mailing 10gp profit on each one.

 

 

 

Here is where the problem comes on. If there is a lot of people selling yew logs guess what, any intelligent person, who cares about conserving $ will go ahead and buy out all the auctions for 300 each. Although he wont get as many logs (if there isnt enough auctions up), he can get enough to start working and then come back and check GE later to buy the rest. Its just a rough example, but from conserving $ point of view with sufficient supply those who try to sell in large amounts at a time will be hit hard.

 

 

 

Also, if you consider how many people are cutting logs at any given time vs burning or fletching them (on a global scale) im pretty sure that there is more logs coming into the game than being used. Ofcourse, if thats not the case than this does not apply, but if it is the case this well eventualy cause an overstock. That will impact those merchants even more and may even cause the price decrease due to overstock and people undercutting each other. Ofcourse, if all supplys are bought out at the rate that they come up for sale then it will not happen, time will tell.

 

 

 

 

 

Cheaters and Scammers

 

 

 

 

 

Those will never go away. New waves of cheats and scams will always hit the gate. Ill give one example from my own personal experience. Try to understand my example here since its based off of world of warcraft auction house.

 

 

 

In world of warcraft, there was different types of cloth, linen, wool, etc. Cloth was used for tailoring and first aid (making bandages), but thats not the point. Cloth would stack up, up to 20 in 1 stack, when sold in auctionhouse. So one auction could contain at most 20 cloth.

 

 

 

One person would then proceed to put up about 20 auctions of cloth, and in between them slip in 1 or 2 auctions where the price had an extra 0 or so.

 

 

 

A careles person would see this the cloth he needed being sold and would begin buying them out. If said person was carelessly and just kept clicking buy out one after another he may end up buying the ones listed for 10x the price. There wouldnt be any trade scams if people paid attentnion in the first place.

 

 

 

Granted, the ruenscape implementation of GE might not allow for the specific example of scam, but im pretty sure lazy people who refuse to work for their $ will find one way or another to scam.

 

 

 

Other

 

 

 

 

Whenever Jagex makes changes to important workings of RuneScape, such as introducing new skills or items, changing shop prices and so forth, it happens again. Every time, without fail. Out of the woodwork pours an army of Chicken Littles, flapping their wings and sending feathers flying as they announce to everyone that The End Is Nigh. ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¦Ã¢â¬ÅThe economyÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s going to crash! The economyÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s going to crash! Run for your lives! Bawwwwwwwwwwwwwwk!ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬ÃâÃ

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edit:

 

noticed this after I posted, pretty much exactly what I was saying, just beat me to posting it.

 

 

 

 

This is going to depend completely on the way the GE is implemented exactly. I actually expect this type of merchanting to suffer most, since the GE will probably make it MUCH easier to buy the preferred amount in various smaller quanities - hence largely removing the "upmark" for bulk sales.

 

 

 

 

Very well said.

 

 

 

 

The second thing to keep in mind is that the people who are making these dire predictions have absolutely no understanding of markets, finance or economics. How can you tell that someone is commenting on the economy without really understanding it? Well, the first hint is that they say the economy is going to crash.

 

 

 

 

After rereading dukes post I noticed just how far this 60 year old man goes to make an idrect jab at me. Oh well. I agree once more than fancy economic degrees vs actualy in game experience at merchanting is 2 different things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price elasticity is largely a theoretical concept and it completely ignores the massive psychology involved in markets, especially on the short-term. In practice, if people actually observe falling prices, they ARE more inclined to sell for a lower price - that is not based on economic principles, but rather on psychologic principles.

 

 

 

 

Fancy, better way of saying of exactly what I meant. Human greed which makes person willing to sell for less but quicker.

 

 

 

 

Again, the effect is only of short-term nature.

 

 

 

 

Once again, exactly what I meant

 

 

 

edit:

 

Overall your post could have been much smaller and much more to the point. You know, had you not added all the mocker in my direction your post may have looked a lot better. I guess you can grow up without growing up :(

 

 

 

You actualy went and wrote a really big and long post making a lot of points on how this change will get rid of us, the scum and vultures of the game and allow everyone else to live happily ever after. I have to say, I had you figured out wrong at first, but this post did clear it up perfectly for me.

 

 

 

edit:

 

sorry, I keep making edits as time at work permits me, dont want to post more replys.

 

 

 

I further thought about this, consider the following.

 

What was the reason to write this post?

 

 

 

1. To discredit me, since you make countless references to me thoughout the post, without actualy calling names

 

 

 

2. To show off your vast knowledge and understanding of the game and its economics, while at the same time promoting your site?

 

 

 

3. Something entirely different, in which case I have no clue, but would love to hear. And if it were something different then why make countless references to me? And lets say comments werent about me or directed at me and this was just to help the people of runescape... then

 

 

 

Now, if its #1, I have to say that is rather amusing how much of an impact I had on you.

 

 

 

However... if its #2, while calling me a bragger and acusing me of being just about everthing bad, have you considered why I called you a hypocrate? You accuse me of being a bragger while at the same time you are advertising your site... aka your achievement. So who decides when is it justified to advertise one achievement and not the other?

 

 

 

If this big post was not for sake of getting attentnion, then I dont see why you posted it at all. You make a lot of assumptions, based of your existing knowledge of real lifes economics. But allow me to make 1 simple comparison that will prove for good just how different runescape economy is from that of real life.

 

 

 

1 word.... offer. I dont want to guess here, but id say 99 of the time I deal with somebody, regardless of buying or selling people always say offer. Now, do you come to the store and offer your price on bread or milk? didnt think so.

 

 

 

Furthermore, real lifes economy is not controlled by teenagers. Which brings me to my next point, is bigger always better? You make a big post, but have you considered that your real life knowledge of economics might not be the beacon of runescapes economy and you might be creating disonformation?

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