Grand Exchange: Your thoughts?

[ego_scorpion]

Please use this link to go directly to page 16 from which point the discussion is resumed. Now that GE has been out for a while it would be intresting to see what people think compared to what they thought prior to release.

 

 

 

Once again, please proceed directly to page 16 in order to resume the discussion and disregard 16 pages of spam in between, thanks :)

 

 

 

http://forum.tip.it/viewtopic.php?t=716 ... &start=300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The first thread I made about grand exchange turned into a flame war unfortunately. Please, try to keep this thread civilized, nobody cares about your opinion of my 24 burger king hats. What I earn and what I do with it should not concern you in the slightest eh?

 

 

 

Anyways, here is my projected outcome of what will happen when the grand exchange is released. Once again, I will do this post in parts.

 

 

 

#1: The flood

 

 

 

As stated by jagex, this update will link all the servers and all the players into one grand exchange. Now, imagine, all those hard working gatherers suddenly have the ability to freely sell at their own prices. Not only that, but their target buying audience is 140x bigger now - all the servers combined.

 

 

 

All these happy gatherers all rush to exchange at the same time, to put up all the goods they have collected at their own prices and sell them directly to skillers. Seems all good right? Wrong.

 

 

 

As the first wave of goods hits the exchange at those high prices the human nature will take over. Anybody with any hint of intelligence will quickly realise that if they put it up at the same or higher price as everybody else they have virtualy 0 chance of selling their supplys, considering 1000's of other players are in there doing the same thing.

 

 

 

#2: The collapsing stage

 

 

 

The next logical step in trying to sell your goods just a bit cheaper than everybody else. But once again, lets not forget that all this is happening on the very large scale. Assuming that there is more than one intelligent person in this game most of the people will want to sell their supplys quick and thus will all try to undercut each other.

 

 

 

I anticipate same thing happening with armor, weapons, treassure trail items, and just about everything. When the market is flooded the only logical outcome is the collapse of prices.

 

 

 

#3: The broken backbone

 

 

 

The last stage of the collapse is the collapse of the rare market, the backbone of the economy. All those merchants holding on to their hats, when they see how low the prices on everything are dropping will anturaly want to buy it all out and anticipate the prices to go up. Or simply buy it out and save it for skilling. However, where does one get the cash necessary for such purchases? Thats where rares come in. In hopes of buying things out and reselling for extreme profit later on or simply to use people will begin unloading their rares, which ofcourse will suffer from the very same price flood and in turn collapse.

 

 

 

#4: The conclusion

 

I honestly cant say how it will turn out and this is just my guess of what will happen. But if things do come to this you can expect very large price decrease on everything. Eventualy, it will even out, but the way I see it the best thing one can do is go into this update with lots of cash in order to prepare to buy out all those tradegoods and rares for low prices as drooling masses undercut each other.

 

 

 

#5: The monopoly

 

Lastly, I see people talking about monopolizing certain aspects of the grand exchange. Let me give you a good example.

 

 

 

Lets say 10 wealthiest players int his game all get together and dicide to take control of the grand exchange. With coordinate effort, these said 10 people can all begin buying out a particular item, for arguments sake lets say a santa hat, with x-mas around the corner.

 

 

 

Now, over the period of next months all these merchants can publically buy out all the santa hats that go up for sale and just setting them aside. As people catch on and notice this they will start charging higher prices. Less and less people will sell and more and more people will want them. Prices go up.

 

 

 

Now, as chrismas approaches they will begin putting up those santa hats back for sale. Having bout out all the hats that have gone up for sale for quite some time they have created a big "ARTIFICIAL" demand for them.

 

 

 

As they put up these santa hats for the prices double of what they paid for, all those people who have no idea will foolishly begin buying them, expecting to make a profit since the prices are going up at quite high rate.

 

 

 

By the time merchants unload their hats and everybody catches on the only thing that will happen is the prices will collapse and become lower than what they were prior to this monopolization.

 

 

 

This has been done in the past with the use of forums and coordinated efforts of many merchants, grand exchange will simply make it much easier to do. A lot of people will end up losing all their $ over this.

 

 

 

Oh well, just my thoughts, please refrain from flaming in this thread.

[Enipeus]

it could happen

 

it will definitly be flooded at first.

[TipIt]

My guess is that i'm going to be making a ton of money thanks to threads like there ;)

[quitthegame]

 

#2: The collapsing stage

 

 

 

The next logical step in trying to sell your goods just a bit cheaper than everybody else. But once again, lets not forget that all this is happening on the very large scale. Assuming that there is more than one intelligent person in this game most of the people will want to sell their supplys quick and thus will all try to undercut each other.

 

 

 

I anticipate same thing happening with armor, weapons, treassure trail items, and just about everything. When the market is flooded the only logical outcome is the collapse of prices.

 

 

 

No, the only logical outcome is that the prices go to what the balance of supply and demand dictates. For something like yew logs, the market is already working fairly fluidly, it's already easy to find buyers and sellers for yews. For something like TT items, it can take a long time to find a buyer, which is why you hear a lot of ppl say they're going to put theirTT items up when the Grand Exchange hits. Lowering the transactional cost will have an effect on items that had a relatively high transactional cost before, but your analysis treats the issue like the marketplace for all categories of items was basically nonfunctional, which is pretty naive.

 

 

 

 

 

#3: The broken backbone

 

The last stage of the collapse is the collapse of the rare market, the backbone of the economy. All those merchants holding on to their hats, when they see how low the prices on everything are dropping will anturaly want to buy it all out and anticipate the prices to go up. Or simply buy it out and save it for skilling. However, where does one get the cash necessary for such purchases? Thats where rares come in. In hopes of buying things out and reselling for extreme profit later on or simply to use people will begin unloading their rares, which ofcourse will suffer from the very same price flood and in turn collapse.

 

 

 

How is the rare market the backbone of the economy? If every discontinued item were made nontradeable tomorrow, it would have zero effect on how I play the game. Of course the forums would be filled with people saying that the RS economy was dead, but that happens with every other update already. Jagex leaves rares in the game because some people enjoy trading them or having them as a goal, and they don't want to anger subscribers if it's not necessary. That doesn't make rares the backbone of anything, or important. (don't even go to the rares prevent inflation argument, a 2nd grader can see that's absurd)

 

 

 

I'll provide an analogy. Rares are collectible, in limited supply, and valuable. Kinda like... 1987 Fleer edition baseball cards are in the real world. Does that make baseball cards the backbone of the economy? Backbone implies structural function, do you know what part of the body is collectible, limited supply, and valuable? It's not the backbone, it's artificially overpriced diamond earrings. Not a perfect analogy though, diamonds have practical uses and are much prettier than RS rares. I'm not trying to flame you, I think merchanting is the most interesting (theoretically speaking) part of RS, although I don't do it very much in practice, and I respect your merchanting ability. But why claim rares are the backbone of the economy, without even offering a reason?

 

 

 

Your point about monopolies using the Grand Exchange is true, but it was already possible and there are drawbacks to the GE for monopolists also. Transactional cost being lower means it's easier for the monopolists to do more trades and impact the market more, but the GE will likely have many more participants than the RSOF which means it won't save the monopolists any more time and could dilute their impact.

[jonni]

I'm really not interested in the whole thing. Call me naieve / whatever, I honestly don't care if my masks end up worthless. This game is not just about making money.

 

At the end of the day, as long as I have a bow to shoot and a tree to chop, I'm not going to take much notice of this.

 

 

 

One point I want to add- A lot of my freinds have told me they do not want to use the Exchange at first anyway, in case there is some sort of bug or whatever that causes people to lose items. Something to think about.

 

-jonni

[ego_scorpion]

And here I hoped for a good intelligent conversation without forms of personal attack. Guess Flammacor wanted to share his opinion so much he didnt bother reading through the thread, especially the part about doing so without flaming.

 

 

 

Flammacor, I would like to thank you for your valuable input to this conversation. If you dont see how (or in your case simply think) that rares are the back bone of the economy then perhaps you need to research the subject better prior to making such solid statements.

 

 

 

Consider this, rares like blue party hat or cracker, if sold, can buy such a large amount of those very same yew logs. Their extreme price is what makes them the backbone.

 

 

 

Either way, you are entitled to your opinion, so you do as you see fit.

[Animaslayer]

he disses "burger king hats" then his sig is pretty much bragging he has 4 -.-

 

 

 

OT: there is already grand exchange thread on if it will ruin stuff

[ego_scorpion]

Actualy to clarify I wasnt dissing burger king hats, I was simply saving some time for the people from the other thread about calling them that and dissing merchants. The point of this thread is not to discuss merchanting, but rather the impact of the grand exchange as a whole.

[Solidus_77]

First off, you are ignoring the massive presence of buyers that could very well outweigh the massive presence of sellers. What people do is exactly what they would do on the forums. Also, the whole point of the great exchange is to lessen the time spent waiting, therefore skillers don't have to worry about how long it takes to sell at a certain price therefore skillers have incentive to actually sell at a higher price. Depending on how it is structured, there may be more or less buyers at the great exchange. That's why I think that there is no guarantee that the price will fall for all goods (let alone crash). If the price really did go to an all time low, buyers would be quick to react and grab everything, thus bringing the price back up.

 

 

 

It is even possible that the price of many things fall right away because people as I speak are keeping items tucked away in their banks awaiting for the update. So I believe your theory in the short term is possible but for a different reason. I think it's possible that the short-term supply may have the effect of lowering prices however it depends on the mentality of people and on the structure of the update which are two things that I don't see. Therefore it's possible, but also possible that the exact opposite may happen (due to the lessening of the time taken to sell items)

 

 

 

The next logical step in trying to sell your goods just a bit cheaper than everybody else. But once again, lets not forget that all this is happening on the very large scale. Assuming that there is more than one intelligent person in this game most of the people will want to sell their supplys quick and thus will all try to undercut each other.

 

 

 

I anticipate same thing happening with armor, weapons, treassure trail items, and just about everything. When the market is flooded the only logical outcome is the collapse of prices.

 

 

 

Highly unlikely. After a while the short-term increase in supply will be over and, since the long-term supply has remained the same, the price will go back to what it pretty much was originally. There is absolutely no indication of a further decrease in the price of these items.

 

 

 

The last stage of the collapse is the collapse of the rare market, the backbone of the economy. All those merchants holding on to their hats, when they see how low the prices on everything are dropping will anturaly want to buy it all out and anticipate the prices to go up. Or simply buy it out and save it for skilling. However, where does one get the cash necessary for such purchases? Thats where rares come in. In hopes of buying things out and reselling for extreme profit later on or simply to use people will begin unloading their rares, which ofcourse will suffer from the very same price flood and in turn collapse.

 

 

 

Plausible (although not as dramatic) if and only if merchants lost a significant part of their income. That is yet another theory. If it turns out that merchants can adapt and surpass thanks to this update then we're looking at an increase in the price of rares and not a decrease because, as these are goods of conspicuous consumption, they have a tendency to increase when people's incomes get higher and vice-versa.

 

 

 

I honestly cant say how it will turn out and this is just my guess of what will happen. But if things do come to this you can expect very large price decrease on everything. Eventualy, it will even out, but the way I see it the best thing one can do is go into this update with lots of cash in order to prepare to buy out all those tradegoods and rares for low prices as drooling masses undercut each other.

 

 

 

Now, not only is it far too much of a generalization to say "everything will go down" but also this is based on mere speculation. The way the great exchange is to cut down the waiting time for sellers (and buyers depending on how organized it is). Now that sellers don't have to spent time they can charge a higher price. This means that items that are generally "sitting around in banks" will be all sold therefore greater demand for these items therefore they will fall in price but also a lesser time constraint for people who want to sell their regular product (these are things like raw or processed materials that DON'T have a tendency to sit around until sold in bank sales) therefore the prices of those "regular products" are possibly going to increase.

 

 

 

What I said, however, is based on the small amount of information given, therefore depending on how the GE is structured the outcome may vary tremendously.

 

 

 

Also, monopolies can only be done with discontinued items and the great exchange will not have any effect on the ease of doing so.

[quitthegame]

And here I hoped for a good intelligent conversation without forms of personal attack. Guess Flammacor wanted to share his opinion so much he didnt bother reading through the thread, especially the part about doing so without flaming.

 

 

 

Flammacor, I would like to thank you for your valuable input to this conversation. If you dont see how (or in your case simply think) that rares are the back bone of the economy then perhaps you need to research the subject better prior to making such solid statements.

 

 

 

Consider this, rares like blue party hat or cracker, if sold, can buy such a large amount of those very same yew logs. Their extreme price is what makes them the backbone.

 

 

 

Either way, you are entitled to your opinion, so you do as you see fit.

 

 

 

I wasn't trying to flame you scorpion, I have a lot of respect for your merchanting ability and your well-reasoned posts. But, I still disagree with you sometimes :P

 

 

 

Like on the function of rares ;) Extreme price has little to do with being the backbone of the economy. Extreme price is baseball cards. Backbone = function. The only functions price alone gives an object are investment/hedge potential and use as currency. I don't believe phats are used as currency, so that only leaves the first usage. It's a little ridiculous to me that something that's fairly ugly, and with no game mechanic use, is used as an investment/hedge, but since it's the only item in truly limited supply it makes sense mathematically. Still, that's not even close to backbone status.

[Runedeath]

The Grand Exchange is going to ruin sellers. Since there will be so many sellers to choose from, it will be hard for sellers to sell their items. But it will be easier for buyers...

[Solidus_77]

The Grand Exchange is going to ruin sellers. Since there will be so many sellers to choose from, it will be hard for sellers to sell their items. But it will be easier for buyers...

 

 

 

Wrong. The great exchange is eliminating the time constraint of sellers thus making it EASIER for sellers.

[ego_scorpion]

Solidus_77, my post was written to discribe what will happen initialy when the great exchange comes out. Probably around first week or 2, at most a month. Regardless of what happens eventualy the prices will stabilize at some point.

 

 

 

If I had to guestimate I would say there is a lot more gatherers than skillers in this game. Thus, when all the gatheres from all the worlds start selling all the things they have saved up at the same time you can expect people to undercut each other. Depending on how long that lasts prices can get quite low.

 

 

 

I see it all as a chain reaction. With prices that low people will wonna buy the supplys the gatherers are selling, but in order to get the $ they will quickly want to sell stuff like dragon armor, barrow sets etc, which in turn merchants will want to buy out at low prices and in order to get the cash will end up selling rares for lower prices. Thats why I generalized this, but its just a theory, nobody knows what will happen.

[Solidus_77]

Solidus_77, my post was written to discribe what will happen initialy when the great exchange comes out. Probably around first week or 2, at most a month. Regardless of what happens eventualy the prices will stabilize at some point.

 

 

 

Ah good, I'd appreciate if you added some time frames in your first post. It sounded as if the "conclusion" section was a description of the long-term effect.

 

 

 

If I had to guestimate I would say there is a lot more gatherers than skillers in this game. Thus, when all the gatheres from all the worlds start selling all the things they have saved up at the same time you can expect people to undercut each other. Depending on how long that lasts prices can get quite low.

 

 

 

If all the producers and consumers were gathered in one spot, the price would not budge regardless of the proportion between them because the current price is the price equilibrium in other words to price at which everything sold is bought. Your estimate of the price falling is based on either the short term supply rising, or the short term demand falling. I don't think we have any indication on how it works therefore not enough information to evaluate the short term effect. Since this method is just a substitute to an already existing method I don't think the effect will be really too great for items that are already being traded very readily.

 

 

 

I see it all as a chain reaction. With prices that low people will wonna buy the supplys the gatherers are selling, but in order to get the $ they will quickly want to sell stuff like dragon armor, barrow sets etc, which in turn merchants will want to buy out at low prices and in order to get the cash will end up selling rares for lower prices. Thats why I generalized this, but its just a theory, nobody knows what will happen.

 

 

 

I don't think that the demand for raw/processed materials mainly consists of merchants or people who will sell armor readily.

[ego_scorpion]

I was simply giving an example that on a large enough scale the price drop can become a chain reaction that will affect everything.

 

 

 

And once more I disagree with you. Flooding the market with gathered raw materials will cause a price decrease. I am talking about a short term [bleep]e in supply without the increase in demand, because lets face it, those who need supplys end up getting them one way or another right now as is.

[Solidus_77]

I was simply giving an example that on a large enough scale the price drop can become a chain reaction that will affect everything.

 

 

 

And once more I disagree with you. Flooding the market with gathered raw materials will cause a price decrease. I am talking about a short term [bleep]e in supply without the increase in demand, because lets face it, those who need supplys end up getting them one way or another right now as is.

 

 

 

Flooding the market with gathered raw materials is the short term [bleep]e and, as I keep saying, what about the flood of buyers who are all here to see what the great exchange is like?

[ego_scorpion]

We are kind of going in circles, but remember I said there is far more gatheres than skillers :)

 

 

 

What im saying is the market will be so flooded with cheap goods that there wont be enough demand for them until the price goes so low that people will simply want to buy for profit and look for means of financing through selling other things for fast cash, thus, a chain reaction.

 

 

 

Its just a theory, you are welcome to present your own instead of trying to discredit mine :)

 

 

 

One thing I think we can all agree on is that introduction of this great exchange will do 2 things.

 

 

 

1. change prices of everything for better or worst.

 

2. make skilling a lot easier.

[Soma2035]

[hide]

 

#2: The collapsing stage

 

 

 

The next logical step in trying to sell your goods just a bit cheaper than everybody else. But once again, lets not forget that all this is happening on the very large scale. Assuming that there is more than one intelligent person in this game most of the people will want to sell their supplys quick and thus will all try to undercut each other.

 

 

 

I anticipate same thing happening with armor, weapons, treassure trail items, and just about everything. When the market is flooded the only logical outcome is the collapse of prices.

 

 

 

No, the only logical outcome is that the prices go to what the balance of supply and demand dictates. For something like yew logs, the market is already working fairly fluidly, it's already easy to find buyers and sellers for yews. For something like TT items, it can take a long time to find a buyer, which is why you hear a lot of ppl say they're going to put theirTT items up when the Grand Exchange hits. Lowering the transactional cost will have an effect on items that had a relatively high transactional cost before, but your analysis treats the issue like the marketplace for all categories of items was basically nonfunctional, which is pretty naive.

 

 

 

 

 

#3: The broken backbone

 

The last stage of the collapse is the collapse of the rare market, the backbone of the economy. All those merchants holding on to their hats, when they see how low the prices on everything are dropping will anturaly want to buy it all out and anticipate the prices to go up. Or simply buy it out and save it for skilling. However, where does one get the cash necessary for such purchases? Thats where rares come in. In hopes of buying things out and reselling for extreme profit later on or simply to use people will begin unloading their rares, which ofcourse will suffer from the very same price flood and in turn collapse.

 

 

 

How is the rare market the backbone of the economy? If every discontinued item were made nontradeable tomorrow, it would have zero effect on how I play the game. Of course the forums would be filled with people saying that the RS economy was dead, but that happens with every other update already. Jagex leaves rares in the game because some people enjoy trading them or having them as a goal, and they don't want to anger subscribers if it's not necessary. That doesn't make rares the backbone of anything, or important. (don't even go to the rares prevent inflation argument, a 2nd grader can see that's absurd)

 

 

 

I'll provide an analogy. Rares are collectible, in limited supply, and valuable. Kinda like... 1987 Fleer edition baseball cards are in the real world. Does that make baseball cards the backbone of the economy? Backbone implies structural function, do you know what part of the body is collectible, limited supply, and valuable? It's not the backbone, it's artificially overpriced diamond earrings. Not a perfect analogy though, diamonds have practical uses and are much prettier than RS rares. I'm not trying to flame you, I think merchanting is the most interesting (theoretically speaking) part of RS, although I don't do it very much in practice, and I respect your merchanting ability. But why claim rares are the backbone of the economy, without even offering a reason?

 

 

 

Your point about monopolies using the Grand Exchange is true, but it was already possible and there are drawbacks to the GE for monopolists also. Transactional cost being lower means it's easier for the monopolists to do more trades and impact the market more, but the GE will likely have many more participants than the RSOF which means it won't save the monopolists any more time and could dilute their impact.

[/hide]

 

 

 

RS Rares form the backbone of the RS economy because of their extremely high value. It's not artificial, it's due to the fact they almost never reenter the market.

 

 

 

Holding 10 santa hats means you hold over 200m in buying power. If you add the value of all the rare items in the game, it is enough to trade for a significant portion of the money currently in game, if not more. Someone with a rare item can buy a LOT of stuff. When people have too much money, a lot of them place it in rare items. I realize not every item can be sold right now, but it still places a lot of power in people who hold rare items, and a lot of value in those items themselves.

 

 

 

Now let's look at the relationship again. You mentioned baseball cards. Well, you also have other things you need to buy. You need a house. You need food and water. You'd probably enjoy being able to stay clean. Food, shelter, food, water, and loads of other necessities: You need them.

 

 

 

Tell me what a necessity is in Runescape? After you buy the basics (which none really cost over 20m) any money you have left is extra. In real life, people start spending on bigger houses, cars, huge parties, etc. In RS, people spend on rares.

 

 

 

Now let's look at what you said about rares not affecting your game. I'm sorry, but unless you're COMPLETELY self sufficient, it will definitely affect your game.

 

 

 

First - Forumwise. Do you really think people would let it rest? More spam means more legit threads never living long enough for people to see, and as Jagex has been on a trend of implementing good suggestions, this could reduce the quality of our updates.

 

 

 

Second - If you had 180m saved for a red party hat that you can now never buy, what are you going to buy? Whatever you buy from other players is going to increase the price of that item. Barrow sets, food, PKing equipment, runes, all skilling materials. Right now if I had 100m or so and suddenly nothing to spend on, I'd either buy a godsword or some xp. Since there are thousands of people saving for rares, you'll be seeing higher prices on EVERYTHING. If you want range xp, either you'll be training the old fashioned way, or catching chinchompas. Fletching? Cut your own logs, or spend more and more on them. Smithing? Watch gold ores increase by 50% or more. Or mine your own gold ore. All this money that's suddenly freed will make a huge impact on the market.

 

 

 

Rares ARE the backbone of the economy in the sense that if it was to fall it would heavily impact the rest of the economy.

[Solidus_77]

We are kind of going in circles, but remember I said there is far more gatheres than skillers :)

 

 

 

What im saying is the market will be so flooded with cheap goods that there wont be enough demand for them until the price goes so low that people will simply want to buy for profit and look for means of financing through selling other things for fast cash, thus, a chain reaction.

 

 

 

Its just a theory, you are welcome to present your own instead of trying to discredit mine :)

 

 

 

One thing I think we can all agree on is that introduction of this great exchange will do 2 things.

 

 

 

1. change prices of everything for better or worst.

 

2. make skilling a lot easier.

 

 

 

You're right about the two things, and as for the excess supply (in other words what you call the "flood of cheap good") I am well aware of it, however I am also showing the possibility of an equal excess demand (in other words, lots and lots of people ready to buy stuff from the lots and lots of people selling them). Where people get the money is a different issue, one that gives food for thought however I don't expect such a significant effect

[ego_scorpion]

Thank you Soma2035, I could not have said it better myself.

 

 

 

Any time you have an item that if sold can buy you 99 in every buyable skill and still have enough leftover to buy some of the best armor you have to accept the fact that items of such calibar are the backbone of the economy.

[ego_scorpion]

I would like to redirect the conversation to the other thing I posted, manipulation of the grand exchange and monopolies.

 

 

 

I feel that given enough rich people (1 billion + wealth) they can take complete control of the great exchange.

 

 

 

Things such as Treasure Trail items, rares, and anything else with scarce or limited supply.

[Solidus_77]

It's only possible to have a monopoly on rares (and for rares it's nearly impossible).

[ego_scorpion]

I strongly disagree. A coordinated effort of many rich people can be enough to monopolize anything and temoprarily offset the price in order to make large profit.

[qeltar]

Threads like this amuse me.. they are all so reminiscent of the proverbial blind men and an elephant.

 

 

 

The reality is that it is absolutely impossible to predict what impact the GE will have, because the impact depends entirely on how it is implemented. Even small changes in operation will make a huge difference in how, when and even if it is used.

 

 

 

A few specific comments....

 

 

The first thread I made about grand exchange turned into a flame war unfortunately. Please, try to keep this thread civilized, nobody cares about your opinion of my 24 burger king hats. What I earn and what I do with it should not concern you in the slightest eh?

 

 

When you deliberately mention your Burger King hats in your sig and then rub other people's faces in them -- as you did in the prior thread -- then people respond. You have the power to avoid these situations: stop showing off.

 

 

I anticipate same thing happening with armor, weapons, treassure trail items, and just about everything. When the market is flooded the only logical outcome is the collapse of prices.

 

 

False. Because what you are forgetting is that economies have self-correcting mechanisms, including that of RuneScape. As prices drop, sellers become less motivated to sell, and buyers become more motivated to buy. More buyers enter the market, more sellers leave, and a new equilibrium is reached. It won't be the same equilibrium (at the same price as before) but it WILL be an equilibrium.

 

 

 

There will be no collapse.

 

 

The last stage of the collapse is the collapse of the rare market, the backbone of the economy.

 

 

:lol:

 

 

 

Saying that rares are the "backbone of the RS economy" is like saying that 50-foot yachts or gold toilets are the backbone of the real world economy.

 

 

 

It's beyond silly. Rares only matter that much to the people who are obssessed with them. To everyone else, they are a non-issue.

 

 

Lets say 10 wealthiest players int his game all get together and dicide to take control of the grand exchange. With coordinate effort, these said 10 people can all begin buying out a particular item, for arguments sake lets say a santa hat, with x-mas around the corner.

 

 

This is called cornering a market. It can be done, but it is very difficult to do. And very risky.

 

 

 

If you attempt to corner a market and succeed, you can make a fortune. But if you attempt and you fail, you lose your shirt.

 

 

 

The first thing is that you must have enough liquidity to buy up nearly all of a particular item being sold. I doubt that even 10 wealthy players in the game can do that. If you start buying stuff and can't keep it up, guess what happens? The whole thing unravels and you go broke.

 

 

 

Second, it usually has to be an item with intrinsic worth and demand. Rares have no intrinsic worth -- they are pure luxury goods, showoff items. If the prices go too high, many buyers will just shrug and buy something else. It's not like anyone NEEDS these things.

 

 

 

Third, the main area where RS differs from the real economy is that Jagex has control over it. They are not going to allow the sort of scenario envisioned here to take place. In particular, price manipulation and collusion (which is what is described here) is illegal in the marketplace forums, so I am sure it will be deemed illegal here too. And it would be VERY easy to check for.

 

 

Holding 10 santa hats means you hold over 200m in buying power. If you add the value of all the rare items in the game, it is enough to trade for a significant portion of the money currently in game, if not more. Someone with a rare item can buy a LOT of stuff. When people have too much money, a lot of them place it in rare items. I realize not every item can be sold right now, but it still places a lot of power in people who hold rare items, and a lot of value in those items themselves.

 

 

What you are saying is that rich people are important, not that rares are.

 

 

 

I own items and cash worth more than 10 santa hats, but I don't have any less ability to do what you said than someone who has the rares.

 

 

Tell me what a necessity is in Runescape? After you buy the basics (which none really cost over 20m) any money you have left is extra. In real life, people start spending on bigger houses, cars, huge parties, etc. In RS, people spend on rares.

 

 

Nothing's a "necessity" but some items are clearly more important than others. Rares have absolutely no function in the game.

 

 

Since there are thousands of people saving for rares, you'll be seeing higher prices on EVERYTHING.

 

 

Doesn't really follow. Most people who are saving for rares will continue to save for them, and the prices will go up or down depending on whether more buyers or sellers come into the market. My inclination is to believe that prices on most goods will initially go down, not up.

[subre_y]

Almost every mmorpg has some form of the grand exchange and their economies are not "collapsing" so I don't know why some people are so paranoid about runescape.