Grand Exchange: Your thoughts?

[TheAncient]

Ego_scorpion, chill :D

 

 

 

Jagex would never implement something in the game that would immediately destroy the game economy. They plan things for months in advance, and they are a professional company.

 

 

 

I would hardly think that the millions Andrew and Paul invest in their employees and game development would not have considered what you said. Surely they make mistakes, but they don't make blunders THAT egregious.

 

 

 

One thing that Jagex might implement is limiting the amount of money you can pass through the GE per week or per day. This would solve the problem you described. In addition, the "backbone" of the economy wouldn't crash if this cash limit was below the value of certain rares.

 

 

 

With that said, you do have some valid points, and they will certainly come into play. Probably just not that dramatic.

[mugged99]

Im sure there will be a massive flood, that, i assume, everyone will agree with. In fact i will be putting up my 400 bananas up for sale for 1gp each -> beat that fellow banana merchants.

 

 

 

As for the rare market collapse i really dont think so. I own a rare and i will not be inclined at all to put my rare into an extremely new system that may have bugs or otherwise. And you can consider me an 'intelligent' person.

[curmudgeony]

 

Think about all the people who lose money by sinking millions into exploits that Jagex later closes. Remember all the people buying maple longs to sell to stores that one day changed?

 

 

Exactly, I'm still smarting from the loss of that and my rogue trader 225 nats. (Gold bracelets alching to 330 + 225 nats = happy mage leveling 'mudge)

[ego_scorpion]

Im sure there will be a massive flood, that, i assume, everyone will agree with. In fact i will be putting up my 400 bananas up for sale for 1gp each -> beat that fellow banana merchants.

 

 

 

As for the rare market collapse i really dont think so. I own a rare and i will not be inclined at all to put my rare into an extremely new system that may have bugs or otherwise. And you can consider me an 'intelligent' person.

 

 

 

What happend when construction came out? people sold rares to buy supplies. It happens when new skill comes out that people wonna buy or when people simply need $.

 

 

 

I am not saying it will happen 100%, but that it can happen and it may, think about it. If people need $ to buy cheap things on exchange in large amounts they might be inclined to sell them and follow the same undercutting principle?

[curmudgeony]

 

Real-world accomplishments are far more important than pixillated imaginary paper hats.

 

 

 

Although Pixillated Imaginary Paper Hats would be good name for an indie punk band...

[kcire]

For the prices dropping, it sounds right in theory, but go to world 1 or 2 and you only see people buying at the low end of the price range, and sellers selling at the high end.

 

 

 

People don't care how much time they waste(Even though they could have easily earned the money lost from selling a little lower, or buying a little higher in that time)

 

 

 

As far as a monopoly on rares goes, how do you know one doesn't already exist?

[berbatovsky]

Heres my thesis:

 

 

 

The opening: pretty much everyone tries out the new exchange, many bugs are found, many people try to exploit said bugs, jagex fixes it.

 

 

 

The next week: People find it an effective and easy way to sell things, the RSOF merchanting forums are much emptier than usual, prices are all over the place.

 

 

 

Near future: Prices become more rigid as people have many options(since there is an easy and convenient way to see ALL the things people are selling) , sellers can no longer buy yew logs at 280 and sell en masse at 330(at least they can't do this using the exchange reliably, but they can still use the now nearly defunct forums and banks/w2)

 

 

 

Future:Merchants still exist but they are subsiding on smaller margins, price ranges are a thing of the past: prayer pots cost 9k and thats it. (in the exchange)Few people TRY to sell at higher than the recognised price.

 

 

 

As for the monopoly, what is stopping people doing this now?In fact rare merchants DO conduct price manipulation by artificially creating demand.

 

 

 

I'm not going to say 'this is just my opinion lol' because that is obvious considering I wrote this post(hint you don't have to justify what you post as being just your opinion because we already know that).

[curmudgeony]

 

The opening: pretty much everyone tries out the new exchange, many bugs are found, many people try to exploit said bugs, jagex fixes it.

 

 

 

The next week: People find it an effective and easy way to sell things, the RSOF merchanting forums are much emptier than usual, prices are all over the place.

 

 

 

Near future: Prices become more rigid as people have many options(since there is an easy and convenient way to see ALL the things people are selling) , sellers can no longer buy yew logs at 280 and sell en masse at 330(at least they can't do this using the exchange reliably, but they can still use the now nearly defunct forums and banks/w2)

 

 

 

Future:Merchants still exist but they are subsiding on smaller margins, price ranges are a thing of the past: prayer pots cost 9k and thats it. (in the exchange)Few people TRY to sell at higher than the recognised price.

 

 

 

I agree this is the most likely outcome of the new Grex system. The only X factor I see, is my previously mentioned "small quantities" issue. If its as easy to buy small quantities from many skillers, as buying from one big quantity from one merchant; I could see problems for the merchants. On the other hand, many from small could be another nail in the autoer coffin.

[wizjany]

If Jagex reads this, they might rethink this whole Grand Exchange idea.

 

Tip to merchanters: Finish up before this comes out, or you'll loose a lot of money once inflation drops into the -40%'s.

 

My friend just started merchanting and is trying to make at least 200k an hour so that he won't loose too much when it comes.

[alcoolj]

I agree with some points of the original post, and disagree with others.

 

 

 

Yes, there will be an initial ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¹ÃâdropÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ in prices of some goods. Primarily caused by players putting up resources of goods at lower than market prices. Once these cheap goods are bought, prices are likely to stabalise. Cheap goods will be snapped up very quickly, leaving the majority of goods at market, or higher than market prices. I believe the equilibrium prices will be reached very quickly, and will prevent any market crash.

[ego_scorpion]

I agree with some points of the original post, and disagree with others.

 

 

 

Yes, there will be an initial ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¹ÃâdropÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ in prices of some goods. Primarily caused by players putting up resources of goods at lower than market prices. Once these cheap goods are bought, prices are likely to stabalise. Cheap goods will be snapped up very quickly, leaving the majority of goods at market, or higher than market prices. I believe the equilibrium prices will be reached very quickly, and will prevent any market crash.

 

 

 

You met my logic half way... where does one get said $ to get said cheap goods quickly? Incease he or she does not have said $? They will sell something else and at times cheaper.. This price decrease will be accross the board, not permanent, but initial.

 

 

 

Yes, eventualy prices will stabilize and some prices might even be different from what they are now, time will tell.

 

 

 

Btw, merchanting will never die simply because of those truely lazy people who rather sell at the bank :)

 

 

 

As for world2 dying, thats a good thing, world2 was fun years ago when it was a place to buy and sell phats :(

[ortiz9471]

I mostly agree with it, except for the very end.

 

 

 

Remember half wines? I forget who, but 1 player bought almost every single half wine. He got the rest of the people owning them to agree to not sell them until he said they could.

 

 

 

So the prices skyrocketed - and he pulled the trigger; they sold. However, by the time a third of them were out people caught on, and it was hard to make some profit off of them.

 

 

 

He made hundreds of millions off of this. And it was this that brought half wines up to par with the other rares. These brought the prices up and they never went down again. They went up - and at a much faster rate then other rares.

 

 

 

So that won't happen.. people simply can't buy out the market on a rare and crash it. It's impossible.

[alcoolj]

 

 

 

You met my logic half way... where does one get said $ to get said cheap goods quickly? Incease he or she does not have said $?

 

 

 

Btw, merchanting will never die simply because of those truely lazy people who rather sell at the bank :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Someone with no RS gp will not be buying up large when the GE opens. Those with spare gp will though. Many bargains will be had on opening day, be sure of it. Yes people will sell 1gp lower than the rest to get fast cash, but again this is unlikely to cause mass panic in all markets.

 

 

 

I sell raw materials, primarily coal. Coal is a staple of the game, and has not altered in price much for years. I highly doubt if GE will affect coal prices negatively, if anything it will show the true supply/demand equilibrium of such products causing some to rise in the short term.

 

 

 

Please explain how the location of where someone sells their goods (apparantly the bank) determines how lazy they are.

[TheAncient]

 

If Jagex reads this, they might rethink this whole Grand Exchange idea.

 

Tip to merchanters: Finish up before this comes out, or you'll loose a lot of money once inflation drops into the -40%'s.

 

My friend just started merchanting and is trying to make at least 200k an hour so that he won't loose too much when it comes.

 

What does GE have anything to do with inflation? It's not taking or putting in cash into the game, assuming there is no tax.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You met my logic half way... where does one get said $ to get said cheap goods quickly? Incease he or she does not have said $?

 

 

 

Btw, merchanting will never die simply because of those truely lazy people who rather sell at the bank :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Someone with no RS gp will not be buying up large when the GE opens. Those with spare gp will though. Many bargains will be had on opening day, be sure of it. Yes people will sell 1gp lower than the rest to get fast cash, but again this is unlikely to cause mass panic in all markets.

 

 

 

I sell raw materials, primarily coal. Coal is a staple of the game, and has not altered in price much for years. I highly doubt if GE will affect coal prices negatively, if anything it will show the true supply/demand equilibrium of such products causing some to rise in the short term.

 

 

 

Please explain how the location of where someone sells their goods (apparantly the bank) determines how lazy they are.

 

 

 

Coal prices might change, because there is a LOT of coal in the market. Perhaps people don't realize this yet, which is why it still sells around 18-200 ea. Or, the people doing hardcore smithing can afford to pay extra. With MTK, Coal should be in the 140-170 range and I expect GE to bring about that change.

[mario_sunny]

The last stage of the collapse is the collapse of the rare market, the backbone of the economy. All those merchants holding on to their hats, when they see how low the prices on everything are dropping will anturaly want to buy it all out and anticipate the prices to go up. Or simply buy it out and save it for skilling. However, where does one get the cash necessary for such purchases? Thats where rares come in. In hopes of buying things out and reselling for extreme profit later on or simply to use people will begin unloading their rares, which ofcourse will suffer from the very same price flood and in turn collapse.

 

 

 

ItÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s a logical prediction, and I admire that, but I personally donÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t think that will happen.

 

 

 

I own a rare and know how the rare market works. ItÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s really amazed me that the rares market is the most evolved, and yet most unpredictable market. Look at how they have evolved; people have actually taken control of the market far enough to create ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¹Ãârare holidays,ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ in which a certain rare(s) dramatically increases in price during itÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s holiday period. Masks increase over Halloween, santas christamas, pumpkins easter, ect.

 

 

 

Why? Because they just do. ThatÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s the only reason. Players raise the price simply because it has evolved into a ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¹Ãâtradition.ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ The constant rise of rares is very similar to this too. Why do rares rise? Simply because they do; players raise rares because everyone else does.

 

 

 

Rares have also taken many ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¹ÃâblowsÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ that it sucessfully dodged. Construction was one; apparently jagex had attempted, and even admitted later to remove a large amount of cash from the economy. Not only did the lack of cash have a potential affect on rares, the fact that players now had an alternative way to show off their wealth(via POHs) was another potential blow.

 

 

 

Rares survived, though. Infact, I noticed they had a slightly dramatic increase in price after the construction hype was over.

 

 

 

With the GE, though, I do not know if jagex intentionally created it to lower rare prices. But if they did- I donÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t think they will find much success.

 

 

 

One player described the rares market once as ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¦Ã¢â¬Åa monster jagex has created and now cannot destroy.ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬ÃâÃ

[TheAncient]

I think with the advent of the GE, shark prices are bound to fall. Because the GE would probably allow for the distribution of unfinished foods (such as unfinished curries, or tuna potatoes), GE could lead to more substitutes for sharks.

 

 

 

Also, mantas and turtles are probably going to become more popular (albeit expensive) due to the GE; they will be more easily traded.

 

 

 

A strawberry market (Basket heals 30) might also develop due to the GE (I'm estimating they'll be traded for around 1K a basket, since 1 seed is typically 1K and I know 3 seeds usually yields a few baskets).

 

 

 

Sharks are bound to fall anyway, with SBrews approaching 2K ea.

[qeltar]

I think with the advent of the GE, shark prices are bound to fall. Because the GE would probably allow for the distribution of unfinished foods (such as unfinished curries, or tuna potatoes), GE could lead to more substitutes for sharks.

 

 

 

Also, mantas and turtles are probably going to become more popular (albeit expensive) due to the GE; they will be more easily traded.

 

 

 

A strawberry market (Basket heals 30) might also develop due to the GE (I'm estimating they'll be traded for around 1K a basket, since 1 seed is typically 1K and I know 3 seeds usually yields a few baskets).

 

 

 

Sharks are bound to fall anyway, with SBrews approaching 2K ea.

 

 

 

These are, I believe, reasonable predictions.

 

 

 

The main difference that the GE is going to make is, as I said earlier, to broaden the market. This will make it much easier for people to buy things that before were rarely sold because it was too difficult to find them.

 

 

 

OTOH, it again depends on how they implement things. If you have to do searches to find items to buy, then people are still going to mostly search for "shark" and "lobster" and not "strawberry basket" (which by the way are an EXCELLENT food for certain applications, very underrated.)

[curmudgeony]

 

Sharks are bound to fall anyway, with SBrews approaching 2K ea.

 

 

 

I honestly think SBrews could go lower. After all Toadflax and nests aren't too hard to get, and with skill share there can be more brews on the market easily.

[g_u_t_h_i_x]

Very organized post.

 

I agree with you, but since I can't merchant for poo, it probably won't affect me.

 

 

 

Notice the *probably*...

[Death_Hippy]

Grand exchange=Auction house in other rpg's...this probably won't happen, those people never had problems like that.

[Solidus_77]

Solidus, if this was a debate I would continue, however, its not, you and your buddy resort to insults and just aobut anything else.

 

 

 

Whether you like it or not, this is a debate although due to the constant personal insults throwing around and the flame baiting that may change.

 

 

 

You say I dont understand economics, thats your opinion.

 

 

 

It's my assessment based on facts, explanations and analysis. Something you have failed to do throughout this entire debate. Don't agree with them? Then prove them wrong instead of saying "oh well that's your opinion" because that doesn't dismiss their validity.

 

 

 

As for responding to duke and debating with him, been there done that and most likely before you even knew him.

 

 

 

You knew him before I did. So what? I neither know nor care about your feud, however when you don't answer to the various arguments and you decide to personally attack, bait, blatantly evade arguments or any sort of cowardly response that does not respond directly the the points presented in the person's argument then I do have a problem.

 

 

 

So essentially scorpion says rares drop, qeltar duke and solidus say they won't?

 

 

 

Basically, ego comes up with several theories, one of which is about discontinued items dropping in price. We say he is wrong and post some detailed explanations, the rest needs not to be mentioned...

 

 

 

If Jagex reads this, they might rethink this whole Grand Exchange idea.

 

Tip to merchanters: Finish up before this comes out, or you'll loose a lot of money once inflation drops into the -40%'s.

 

My friend just started merchanting and is trying to make at least 200k an hour so that he won't loose too much when it comes.

 

 

 

First of all, cut out the -40%, it's obviously based on nothing and just a random statistic you threw in. Second of all, you've got your facts all messed up. A decrease in inflation means that there is much less inflation which means that there is more price stability. Although it sounds like you expected the value of the currency to change in some way or another. Either way you're wrong, because the GE is not going to change the money supply and therefore not going to change the price index by any significant amount. If you're expecting prices to all rise by 1.5, don't get your hopes up. Finally, like I have said to others, this is all speculation and the way that the great exchange functions will GREATLY affect the results so don't say things like "they should re-think this idea" because they know more than any of us at this point.

[Emofury]

What jagex should do imo is put a minimum and maximum...

 

 

 

Example

 

1k Yew longs - minimum 550k

 

Maximum - 650k

[ego_scorpion]

Could you explain a bit more? IÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢m not entirely sure if I understand, or agree with what you are saying. After a monopolization, I could see the price plunging a lot, but not below the original price.

 

 

 

I really do admire the calculations and predictions you did there, it was an interesting read.

 

 

 

 

Dear mario_sunny:

 

 

 

I made my $ back when most of the merchants were friends and worked together, except for one, duke freedom. Primarily, it was me and unleash1 working together and quite a few other merchants sort of mimicing us.

 

 

 

Although we did not achieve monopoly, we did achieve something close to it. When summertrees joined our little duo, the 3 of us started buying out all blue party hats. Anyone who sold 1, 1 of us 3 would instantly buy it. And we did so until we had a lot of them. Well, considering there was much less merchants back then, most party hat merchants started buying them too, demand naturaly went up on its own. At the peak of its demand we would start selling them off. The price difference between buy and sell was quite a bit so even with 1 hat you could make a decent profit. Eventualy price would stabilize.

[ego_scorpion]

Solidus_77, just because you write big posts and attempt to discredit me does not make you right or me wrong.

 

 

 

Its my choice to debate with you or not, I choose not to because of the manner you debate. Initialy I was trying to argue my points with you until you began your attacks on me and taking jabs at me at which point I realised its a waste of time. This will most likely be my last response to you, unless you somehow become civil.

 

 

 

On last note, its not a feud between me and duke, its dukes vendetta against me and my infinite joy over his ban.

[Azurechaos]

Nah, I think it'll be fine.