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The issues with Jagex proposed trading system


Duke_Freedom

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Introduction

 

 

 

It is clear that Jagex has decided on a total overhaul of nearly all major aspects of its game. Judging from the information given in the Development Diary, Jagex started to work about one and a half year ago on the various changes that are now implemented. Jagex is determined to bring the final death-blow to Real World Item Trading, no matter what it takes.

 

 

 

Not minding the whole argument about whether Real World Item Trading is really so bad that it is worth going through all the effort Jagex has gone through, overall I have to say that they have thought well about the many sections of the game that would need to be changed and I am quite impressed by their ability to find more or less suitable alternatives to each of the affected game sections.

 

 

 

However, despite the fact that they may have spent much thought about all the important matters involved at the top level, they seem to be making vital mistakes with the actual details of the changes. They forgot about the importance of working out the exact details right and tweaking them until they are perfect, while that might make the difference between whether the changes will actually be disastrous for the game in the end or whether all those who are currently spamming up the rants boards with ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¦Ã¢â¬ÅI quitÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬ÃâÃ

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Wow nearly missed this thread in the sea of others about the update.

 

 

 

I've always been interested in the RS ecomony, it was always unique in the game world due to the size and complexity of it. The thing i find realy strange is the price floors of the GE. The fact that there is a floor to how low prices will go, and that items can't be sold for more than their shop price. As i've already noticed with dragon daggers.. they started out with a max price of around 33k, now it's 30k which is what the store sells for, leading me to believe that when an items player value falls below it's shop value it can never go back above it.

 

 

 

The way runescapes free market worked would never allow prices to fall far below alch value anyway, people would notice this then buy items to alch, so to artificially inforce this seems a little over controlling. likewise with the upper caps on prices, the prices were never decided by how much jagex thinks it's worth, but the rarity, usefulness and how easy it was to obtain. i'm wondering what will happen with new items that come into the game.. will they automatically have they're specialist shop price put into the GE?

 

 

 

Although Runescapes old economy was quite different to a real world ecomony, it's still possible to draw some comparison, i'm trying to think of a real world example of a goverment artificially controlling markets but i've drawn a blank on finding one that's actually worked/not resulted in civil war or massive sanctions :-k

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Reek of Mud: (Duke Freedom)

 

 

 

If you were Jagex, and could do whatever you want with the game (outside of change it back to the old system) what would you do?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aside from that, with all of the price decreases, should Jagex have created "phantom" accounts to buy all of the extra items that were in people's banks, thereby controlling the ridiculous amount of supply? Or, again, how would you have handled the GE update?

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Duke Freedom, as always your threads are very much interesting... I do wish to have a word with you sometime soon, do you still have my MSN?

 

 

 

As for your thread, you seem to miss one thing...

 

You're asuming the prices actually get adapted to what players trade...

 

 

 

Try buying a resource which isnt all that popular, like Olive Oil (4) potions... I did that, and I only got 100 at a time, and although I was not on at all times, I could tell that I got those 100 at a time at regular intervals...

 

 

 

Another thing is the price in relation to their alch value... You'll notice it by reading this thread.

 

 

 

I said it before, and I will say it again:

 

Jagex is controlling the market of a game that does not want to be controlled... You can expect a riot and probably a maximum age for this game of 7, because anyone capable of making a decision for themselves will stop paying for such a limiting game...

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The GE is out of whack. And, if what some of you are implying is true, if JaGex IS adding items into it... I don't even know what to say about that.

If the CORPORAL beast is this hard, imagine how hard a GENERAL or COLONEL beast would be. a corporal is not even an admirable rank in armies that use that ranking system.

 

Yeah, it is a pking minigame, so any arguments anybody makes will probably be biased.

The best way this will end :Everybody just says,"I'm not arguing with you anymore, goodbye."

The worst way this will end: I don't really know, psychological warfare? Worldwide thermonuclear war? Pie eating contest?

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i think jadex is trying too hard to keep people from drop tradeing, i dont care if people drop trade from account to account, it doesn't affect me. and it is now going to make it harder to merchant :wall: and pking is going to suck with the gravestone thing. i personaly think these recent update are the worst things they could of done for the game. in a way they kind of have somewhat controll over the economy also. its going to blow..... :cry:

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yet again, i step to give my say, and again, i feel that i'll be flamed for being realistic.

 

 

 

i'd rather have less bots and rwt's, than lower prices. why? because, that means, for those of you who actually READ the development diary about it, they spend tons of their money of programming to stop bots and rwts. without the need for those, there will be able to be better updates, maybe even rs3 (i wish lol). all you people who say it's a bad thing and quit, you'll regret it when the updates come in ext year.

 

 

 

go on and flame me, i bet most of you think i deserve it for taking the rational side of the argument

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1 thing i do not like about this, is with player to player trading you must offer what the GE says. so no more rounded off 20,50 100k's now i have to goto almost the exact GP?

 

 

 

 

 

and we do not have the option to offer the "exact" amount of $ the products are worth? that sucks

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Not sure which of so many threads I should add this to, but this one's as good as any:

 

 

 

I think Jagex's big mistake was making all these changes so soon after GE. I understand the Machiavellian thinking here, getting it all out of the way at once, but I think there'd be less resistance if people had more confidence in the GE.

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The thing i find realy strange is the price floors of the GE.

 

 

 

Yeah, I don't understand Jagex philosophy behind these price floors. I don't get what they are trying to reach by adding them in the first place. As you already mentioned as well, all items already have some sort of price floor: their high alch values. Players will enforce these themselves when the price of an item drops too much below it.

 

 

 

i'm wondering what will happen with new items that come into the game.. will they automatically have they're specialist shop price put into the GE?

 

 

 

You're raising another interesting point here... The first few of a new item used to be sold at extraordinary prices, after which the prices plummet rapidly over the course of just a few days / weeks. Jagex will certainly have to look into this as well, because as it currently stands, the system will probably not be going to allow people to sell new items during this period and likely not even for quite a while thereafter. Furthermore, the issue of determing a "fair market value" price for new items is a very nasty one - I can't think of a suitable solution for this at the moment, other than temporary allowing complete free market trading (i.e. no pricing restrictions) at the Grand Exchange for new items.

 

 

 

If you were Jagex, and could do whatever you want with the game (outside of change it back to the old system) what would you do?

 

 

 

I just want to reiterate that I personally don't agree with the whole notion that RWT is so bad that it is worth all this effort. In fact, I would have long "legalized" RWT one way or another. The figures that Jagex has given us about the billions that were already being sold per year and the fact that players still barely notice any of this (disregarding bots), makes me think that if they would build a well-considered RWT environment they would be better (and easier?) off.

 

 

 

However, I do believe Jagex is doing a fine job at what they are trying to reach: no more RWT at all, including (significantly?) less other rule-breaking (mostly less botting) as a by product. Jagex did some good research on how they could effectively and more or less permanently remove RWT from their game. They made the right conclusion that the only way of getting rid of RWT is to take away all possibilities that you could possibly "launder" gp from one character to another in a "secure" way. Jagex seems to understand well that if there any loopholes left, they can count on it that creative RWT'ers will be going to abuse them.

 

 

 

What surprises me is that Jagex wasn't all that shocked about the amount of major changes that they would need to do, but apparently they consider it to be worth it. Looking at the big picture I believe they came up with excellent alternatives for former game content that had to be changed, but sadly they are now ending up implementing half of it in a rubbish manner in my opinion.

 

 

 

So to conclude, I don't think there are any fundamental problems with Jagex proposed changes. However, they really need to spent more time on working out the (minor) details better, making some small changes to several parts of the new content and tweaking parameters around to ensure that, regarding the trading system for example, we won't be going to see a complete meltdown of trading activity in various items, just because the system works crappy.

 

 

 

Aside from that, with all of the price decreases, should Jagex have created "phantom" accounts to buy all of the extra items that were in people's banks, thereby controlling the ridiculous amount of supply? Or, again, how would you have handled the GE update?

 

 

 

I don't believe that game companies should be interferring in their own game economies at all... Ever. Prices will adapt on their own over time. We're currently just seeing a short-term panic and that will pass by.

 

 

 

Furthermore, from a theoretical point of view, one can argue that many items used to be consistently overpriced according to the real supply and demand of the item, based on the fact that the trading system was inefficient. Potions, for example, were a pain to sell in bulk. For many people the time it took (= opportunity cost) to sell the items was simply too high for them to go about to sell the items, this resulted in structural (but under perfect markt conditions, inefficient) higher valuation of potions than dictated by the real supply and demand equilibrium.

 

 

 

The Grand Exchange largely ment the removal of the opportunity cost and thus the prices of potions and any such items were bound to fall down. I have a hard time really calling that a price drop, however, because one can argue that people "earn" back part of this loss by the fact that they don't have to spent the time selling the potions. Time is still money.

 

 

 

do you still have my MSN?

 

 

 

Yeah, just not so much on MSN lately.

 

 

 

Jagex is controlling the market of a game that does not want to be controlled...

 

 

 

From what I read around the forum and knowing Jagex for 5 years now, I wouldn't be surprised if Jagex actually ends up creating liquidity on the Grand Exchange by buying and selling items themselves, hence also creating price stability by doing so. Of course, it would be a huge loss for the game if they are going to do so though. Like you mentioned in your thread as well, they are taking out the M of Multiplayer in their Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game (MMORPG). Jagex once again underestimates the importance of a dynamic game environment, as they always have.

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Food for thought - do you think Jagex will control rare prices through GE?

 

 

 

In the free market, rares were only valued by the amount you'd pay for them. But now we have to trust GE to set the price for us, but of course we never know the real market price because nobody is able to sell or buy outside of GE.

 

 

 

Jagex could have two options here:

 

 

 

- Artificially raise price of rares (in a similar way a sales tax does). Of course, free market laws would then dictate that the amount of trades would then drop because less people are willing to purchase them. In the end, Jagex could rise rare prices so high that almost nobody would trade them, effectively making them next-to-untradeable, which is how the new rares work.

 

- Artifically lower price of rares. Before GE, they'd have to physically introduce more rares into the market, which would be noticeable. But now, they could just set the "market" value lower than the real market value. We'd have many buyers and no sellers, and effectively achieve the same objective as the first option.

 

 

 

In the end, Jagex has the power to do now what they couldn't do before - dictate how easy or hard it would be to sell an item, up to an including making it effectively untradeable as far as the market is concerned. Or, as you said, they could also facilitate liquidity by buying/selling extra items.

 

 

 

In either case, Jagex could wrestle control of rares with respect to the market to replace them with items they can better control, and which have a steady (even if low) drop rate such as 3a armor. Objectively, perhaps that would be a healthy move for the economy, or it could be a disaster as well.

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Jagex is controlling the market of a game that does not want to be controlled...

 

 

 

From what I read around the forum and knowing Jagex for 5 years now, I wouldn't be surprised if Jagex actually ends up creating liquidity on the Grand Exchange by buying and selling items themselves, hence also creating price stability by doing so. Of course, it would be a huge loss for the game if they are going to do so though. Like you mentioned in your thread as well, they are taking out the M of Multiplayer in their Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game (MMORPG). Jagex once again underestimates the importance of a dynamic game environment, as they always have.

 

 

 

I already pointed out that they ARE creating this liquidity... The ammount of items and the interval between getting batches of those items, as well as the very coincidental ratio of alch value:market value is suspiciously coincidental at best, but if something like this manipulation were to happen in the real world, they'd be jailed for 15 years for fraud...

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Food for thought - do you think Jagex will control rare prices through GE?

 

 

 

Well, they'll certainly have all the necessary tools to do so and we will barely have any way of detecting any of it. Only if we're going to see any strange price behaviour then we'll really know there's something going on.

 

 

 

And yes, Jagex could make the rares pretty much untradable anytime they want now, let their prices devaluate by creating new rares for sale or just ensure that their prices remain stable by both buying/selling them according to player demand.

 

 

 

As Ts Stormrage said, and as can be read in various threads around here as well, there is plenty of suspicious activity already. Is this really so surprising though? Most of the bots will be gone soon and the masses of materials they created will be used up by the players some time.

 

 

 

A logical mid-term / long-term effect of this update would be higher prices for the materials that bots used to gather on a massive scale. However, perhaps we'll not be going to see that happen at all. Jagex could take over the role of the bots by providing the materials that the bots used to gather themselves, using the system that gave them the complete control over the price development of any item in the game. I have to say I'm not too proud of the conspiracy thinking here, but Jagex is crazy enough for it.

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Food for thought - do you think Jagex will control rare prices through GE?

 

 

 

Well, they'll certainly have all the necessary tools to do so and we will barely have any way of detecting any of it. Only if we're going to see any strange price behaviour then we'll really know there's something going on.

 

 

 

And yes, Jagex could make the rares pretty much untradable anytime they want now, let their prices devaluate by creating new rares for sale or just ensure that their prices remain stable by both buying/selling them according to player demand.

 

 

 

As Ts Stormrage said, and as can be read in various threads around here as well, there is plenty of suspicious activity already. Is this really so surprising though? Most of the bots will be gone soon and the masses of materials they created will be used up by the players some time.

 

 

 

A logical mid-term / long-term effect of this update would be higher prices for the materials that bots used to gather on a massive scale. However, perhaps we'll not be going to see that happen at all. Jagex could take over the role of the bots by providing the materials that the bots used to gather themselves, using the system that gave them the complete control over the price development of any item in the game. I have to say I'm not too proud of the conspiracy thinking here, but Jagex is crazy enough for it.

 

 

 

I doubt that will happen. Jagex is specifically interested in keeping raw material prices higher.

 

 

 

When you think about the "social classes" that RS has, Communist Jagex loves the proletariat workers. They are happiest if all players mine or fish all day, that way they cause least trouble, and can be occupied with minimal effort. Its the burgeoisie merchants, intelligencia dissidents, and aristocrat duellers/pkers that Jagex hates.

 

 

 

Keeping raw material prices high is another way for Jagex to ensure more people spend time working for the materials. That's one of the major reasons they moved against bots in the first place.

Live free or die. First option is exhausted, so guess what remains?

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I already pointed out that they ARE creating this liquidity... The ammount of items and the interval between getting batches of those items, as well as the very coincidental ratio of alch value:market value is suspiciously coincidental at best, but if something like this manipulation were to happen in the real world, they'd be jailed for 15 years for fraud...

 

 

 

I noticed this about the intervals at which i bought certain things too. I realised i could buy green bodies and nats together and alch for no loss.. the nats i bought as expected, sometimes a small wait, then i'd get them all at once. But with the bodies, usually i'd get nothing until i log on the next morning, where i'd find 100-200 bodies waiting for coillection. I find it hard to believe that the number of people buying them is always exactly divisable by ten (i buy in 1k's). I guess the GE could have a system where it shares out good in 100's then hangs on to surplus untli another 100 can be sold.. but the fact that it's such a closed doors system just fuels speculation.

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Your articles are always a good read, Duke_Freedom, and I am glad you head back to guide us through this turmoil time. Can you also elaborate on tweaks necessary for the other updates to make them viable?

 

 

 

EugenyG, try to avoid Godwin's law.

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Your articles are always a good read, Duke_Freedom, and I am glad you head back to guide us through this turmoil time. Can you also elaborate on tweaks necessary for the other updates to make them viable?

 

 

 

EugenyG, try to avoid Godwin's law.

 

 

 

If you refer to my use of the term "totalitarian", I don't think I break that law.

 

 

 

Godwin's law only applies to very specific instances (National-Socialist party and Adolf Hitler). Note that it doesn't say a word about "fascism", "communism" or "totalitarianism", not because these words are "better" but because they are generic and unqualified.

 

 

 

Jagex's behavior IN THEIR GAME is totalitarian, because the simple definition of "totalitarian" is running a system with absolute control over it. Here is a dictionary definition of the term "totalitarianism":

 

 

 

"A system of government where the people have virtually no authority and the state wields absolute control, for example a dictatorship." -- Wiktionary, the Free Dictionary.

 

 

 

Note that the DEFINITION says NOTHING about murders, repression, concentration camps, etc, that is just a connotation of the term when applied to real-life situations, but I didn't apply it to real life here.

 

 

 

This definition applies perfectly to Jagex's in-game government. If you don't think having an absolute control in a game is bad, then just don't be offended at the term totalitarian when used in-game, but don't attack my perfectly legitimate usage of the term. You can say that there is nothing wrong with Jagex being totalitarian in their game, or you could argue that they are not (and present facts to back up your claims), but you can't attack me for using the term.

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Worded it wrong, my mistake. I was referring to the "Communist Jagex loves the proletariat workers." It was a bad objection and I'll like to apologize to prevent any further threadjacking.

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Stormrage's law:

 

 

 

Ditto as Godwins law, but then with mentioning Godwins Law...

Former Leader of The Tal Shiar Alliance - An Original Tip.it Clan
Member of the Wilderness Guardians and Founder of the Silent Guardians
Founder of The Conclave - A Tip.it Clan institution
Tip.it Times author (click for all my articles) - When I use the wrong reasons to make the right statement, argue the reason, not the statement.
MSSW4 General - Did we kick your ass too?




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