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Rares prices.... (27,000+ views)

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I see prices prices are going up fast again for ALL rares.

 

 

 

 

 

What gives?

 

 

 

 

 

I think that summoning is a factor and the stabilization of the G.E. is another.

 

 

 

 

 

What are your thoughts on the future of rares?

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No. In January the unbalenced trade update will go into effect. So, I'm assuming since no one can merchant them in the near future, merchants have gave up with rares, thus, causing them to "crash" in price.

 

 

 

But there is a good chance I'm wrong, and I probably am.

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No. In January the unbalenced trade update will go into effect. So, I'm assuming since no one can merchant them in the near future, merchants have gave up with rares, thus, causing them to crash in price.

 

 

 

pretty much what I was about to say :P

 

 

 

And if you hear rumors that players tell you, never believe them until Jagex made it offical.


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If all rares follow the prices of santas, I lost 5-10% of my net worth today D:

 

 

 

I still think they'll go up again eventually as long as summoning isn't a money drain


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Unless JaGEx actually updates prices on GE, prices will have to go back up, because some GE prices are high compared to the new cheaper prices..


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they can still rise in the GE. however, they'll just symbolize wealth or the achievement in owning the rare as they cant go any higher then the regular price at 3k, and making it completely useless for merchanting.

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they can still rise in the GE. however, they'll just symbolize wealth or the achievement in owning the rare as they cant go any higher then the regular price at 3k, and making it completely useless for merchanting.

 

In the GE they can fluctuate 5% - that's only in trades. There's a lot of leeway in change for big rares.

 

And to the thread's creator: You might want to make your title a little less crazy. At least add a question mark. The reason rares are lowering in price is because people like you are freaking out and scaring other people into selling their rares with stupid rumors like that.

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yea.. i saw a phat fall over and have a heart attack today :S :twisted: woot fisrt page


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I reckon they're just rumors started by some platers to make a pile load of money. This is what I think is being done (besides people selling rares to prepare for summoning):

 

 

 

- Sell rares at a current high price

 

- Shortly after, start a rumor that rares will become untradable in January

 

- People start dumping them, causing price to drop

 

- When the price is low enough, buy the rares back, but only just before Jagex implements the unbalanced trade prevention in January.

 

- Jagex will adjust prices (maybe). However, it's safe to assume that G.E. prices will be higher still than what the January street price is, because of the price limits.

 

- Come January, everybody will be *forced* to pay the G.E price, hence the rares in your possession will have increased considerably compared to what you bought them back for.

 

 

 

It's speculation, but if it works, then some people are going to make huge loads of money. I sure hope Jagex will do a good revamp of G.E. prices before the trade limitation is put in effect.


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The decreased prizes of rares is just the normal effect of rumors and chistmas. And i dont mind that, i was finally able to buy a santa. :D


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Oh? Might it be time for me to buy if they go way down mmm...

 

 

 

I just hope its not a bunch of people having a bank sale on rares so they can sell for rl $$ before the trade update in Jan.

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I don't think they will die immediately (unless they are made untradeable but that's unlikely at least in the nearby future. Jagex lost too much support already, they wouldn't want to do something that will make players even angrier (of course I have been mistaken in the past about this :/ ))

 

 

 

The more expensive an item is, the less % fluctuation. A nat rune can easily fluctuate 10%, but a rare wouldn't fluctuate more than 1% in any given normal trading day. Crashes (such as dupes) are of course an exception.

 

 

 

Rares are still:

 

 

 

- Rare (in both senses: there's very few of them, and you can't produce any more)

 

- Can be worn in a unique style that shows off how rich you are

 

- Can be traded on GE, which -currently- is on par with market prices more or less

 

- Is a solid long-term investment thanks to items 1-3

 

 

 

As long as the above are true, I see no reason for rares to drop. Now, since Jagex has complete controls over GE internals, this could change if they artificially change the rare price, or secretly introduce more rares, or secretly buy them up, whatever. There's no direct evidence any of that happens now.

 

 

 

If prices DO fall, I expect the non-wearable rares to be hit hardest, due to them not having the #2 quality on the list. Hats/masks are always desired even if its hard to trade them because they are a showoff factor, but pumpkins/wines/etc have no value other than investment. For example, if Jagex announced that rares become untradeable Jan 1, hat/mask/santa prices would rise LIKE HELL (the rich players would want to reserve one for themselves so they own it forever), but the non-wearable rares would drop to next to nothing.

 

 

 

True, the GE limits how much rares can rise/fall regardless of what the market actually wants. But in a way that may be a good thing, because it prevents mass panic and exploitation. Consider when after 9/11 the US shut down the stock exchange for 5 days, even though people wanted to trade, just so there isn't a massive panic and crash. This could well have prevented 9/11 from being the next Great Depression (we still had a recession, but it could have been much worse).

 

 

 

Jagex's immediate objectives are to stabilize the economy and try to restore the seriously shattered player confidence in the market. Maybe next year they'll do a battle against rares, or start a covert operation, but I don't see it happening in the next few months.


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I think there are a number of factors here, some of which have already been mentioned, such as GE, general unknowns about the future etc.

 

 

 

Obviously it also is much harder to raise the kind of cash required now, compared to staking etc.

 

 

 

One point I have not seen mentioned is summoning in January - are some of the big players liquidising some cash early to be able to buy their way to the coveted number one spot....?

 

 

 

G


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Like I posted on a similiar thread to this one:

 

 

 

Rares are logically declining in price due to a variety of reasons like:

 

 

 

- The uncertainity about their practical tradability once the January update is done.

 

- What Jagex may or may not do: we all know Jagex doesn't really like rares and the GE is giving them absolute control over item prices.

 

- The overall chaos caused by the recent updates is certainly not positive for the price stability of rares. Plus, there are people quiting due to the recent updates and selling off their rares.

 

- People may be 'cashing in' their rares for RWT purposes while it is still possible.

 

- Many other items have declined in price. People may be selling rares to buy those up and profit of them.

 

- New merchanting feature (the GE) that may be far more profitable than actively trading phats for good merchants. This leads to a lower net amount of phats held by merchants and less liquidity of rares as fewer merchants will actively "make a market" in them.

 

- Negative market sentiment

 

 

 

It's quite useless to speculate on what happen after the January as a lot will depend on Jagex, their crappy Adaptive Pricing System and the Grand Exchange Team.

 

 

 

The more expensive an item is, the less % fluctuation. A nat rune can easily fluctuate 10%, but a rare wouldn't fluctuate more than 1% in any given normal trading day. Crashes (such as dupes) are of course an exception.

 

 

 

Rares can fluctuate more or less depending on market sentiment. In general you are right that, procentually, rares fluctuate a lot less than most items. However, the problem is probably not the 5% price ranges imposed by the GE, but the Adaptive Pricing System which works too slow and too inaccurate. Rares are able to [bleep]e up or down 10% or even much more in value in a matter of days - the GE works extremely ineffectively in those cases and that WILL limit trade.

 

 

 

- Can be traded on GE, which -currently- is on par with market prices more or less

 

- Is a solid long-term investment thanks to items 1-3

 

 

 

They are not on par and the long-term investment part has been weak for 1.5 years already. The prices we are currently seeing on rares are about equal to the prices 1.5 year ago.

 

 

 

Now, since Jagex has complete controls over GE internals, this could change if they artificially change the rare price, or secretly introduce more rares, or secretly buy them up, whatever. There's no direct evidence any of that happens now.

 

 

 

Direct evidence is not needed. Rares are speculative items of which the price behaviour is the most stable in steady, stable, consistent and predictable times. We are seeing huge changes, a lot of uncertainity and unstability in the game as well as inconsistency in markets and prices on the GE that don't reflect real demand and supply. Obviously none of that is good for the rares - hence why rares are declining in value currently.

 

 

 

Consider when after 9/11 the US shut down the stock exchange for 5 days, even though people wanted to trade, just so there isn't a massive panic and crash.

 

 

 

That was not "good" in any sense. It creates manipulated, unnatural, unstable and ineffective markets. The markets should have crashed - it is better in the long run. Amerika certainly proved that it not as much of a free market economy as it claims to be.

 

 

 

Jagex's immediate objectives are to stabilize the economy and try to restore the seriously shattered player confidence in the market.

 

 

 

Jagex objectives are to create a fun MMORPG and the second M in that abbreviation stands for Multiplayer, not for Maoism. If Jagex wanted to create stability they could just as well give every item a specific price (i.e. the high alch value) and assert that everyone has to pay the same price for the items. Where's the fun in that though?

 

 

 

In the end, I expect rares to hit rock bottom at some point and - assuming Jagex doesn't make any strange moves - they'll probably go back up again thereafter.

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Rares can fluctuate more or less depending on market sentiment. In general you are right that, procentually, rares fluctuate a lot less than most items. However, the problem is probably not the 5% price ranges imposed by the GE, but the Adaptive Pricing System which works too slow and too inaccurate. Rares are able to [bleep]e up or down 10% or even much more in value in a matter of days - the GE works extremely ineffectively in those cases and that WILL limit trade.

 

 

 

The simple reason rares don't (or didn't before the GE) fluctuate as much as cheaper items is due to cost/benefit and opportunity loss analysis, which can be broken down to 2 main subdivisions:

 

 

 

1. Much more of those who circulate rares are professional merchants, while most of those who circulate, say, nats, are either the producer or the consumer, with the merchant filling an intermediary role, and strictly speaking the GE has overtaken the merchant's role. Now let's be clear here - I don't think that is a bad thing. Merchanting is not the be-all-end-goal, they were useful because they helped the economy. If there is a better way for the economy to function, merchants are obsolete, and they don't deserve any "concessions" that would prevent merchanting from dying. I don't like GE because of (a) it's 5% limit and dysfunctional "adaptive system", and (B) because it's completely intransparent and open to manipulations behind the scenes. But the fact it "removed" merchanting does not make me sorry - adapt, or die, and if you are not needed in the new economy, too bad for you. In short, I think GE should not IMPOSE restrictions upon you, but it is not obliged to care for you either.

 

 

 

2. Typical rare value transaction is much higher than raw material transaction. A rare may cost 400mil, but you almost never sell 400mil worth of nats at once (at least you didn't before GE, now of course you can, but almost no end buyer would buy 400mil worth at once, or original producer sell that much at once). It's all about how much money you are going to make per a time period of trading. If your goal is 5mil/day, the best cost/benefit is to try and buy/sell 10 rares with 500k profit on each deal. Trying to buy/sell 20 rares with 250k profit will take longer, as will trying to buy/sell 5 rares with mil profit. With raw materials, it's another story, because unlike rares where daily circulation can be in the billions, you are not likely to daily circulate more than 100mil worth of raw mats. Therefore, you obviously want to target a higher percentage profit, to keep a similar daily profit.

 

 

 

Direct evidence is not needed. Rares are speculative items of which the price behaviour is the most stable in steady, stable, consistent and predictable times. We are seeing huge changes, a lot of uncertainity and unstability in the game as well as inconsistency in markets and prices on the GE that don't reflect real demand and supply. Obviously none of that is good for the rares - hence why rares are declining in value currently.

 

 

 

Rares can drop for a variety of reasons, and while you are right that in an absolutely tranquil market rares will be stable or increase in a stable manner, the market is not tranquil and it should not be. In real life, stock prices can be sharply impacted by external events, but that's very different from them being impacted by cheating or insider trading. If RL gold drops due to a new alloy better suitable for electric conductivity, that's life, and too bad for the gold, but it's better for the overall market. Same here - the "welfare" of rares is not the end goal. If rares drop or [bleep]e because there are more/less market alternatives or other legitimate means, the market will benefit even though rares suffer. But if rares drop/[bleep]e because Jagex manipulates them, the market suffers together with rares. It's obvious that the first situation is going on right now, but as I said, there is no evidence that the second situation is taking place ATM.

 

 

 

That was not "good" in any sense. It creates manipulated, unnatural, unstable and ineffective markets. The markets should have crashed - it is better in the long run. Amerika certainly proved that it not as much of a free market economy as it claims to be.

 

 

 

I agree that America did not behave in a free market manner in that case. I have no other choice but to say that, with all due respect, absolute free market is not the best course of action in all circumstances. Saying that "it's not good because it's not free market" doesn't make logical sense; rather, you say "free market is good because it provides benefit X". Free capitalism isn't good for its own sake, but only because of its benefits to society, and while -usually- in the long run its better than socialist/communist alternatives, there may be certain cases where exceptions are justified, and I think that was one of those cases. You may disagree with me on that one, though.

 

 

 

In other words, I support capitalism (and oppose socialism/communism) not for dogmatic reasons, but because I think capitalism usually brings the best benefit to society in the long run, certainly better than alternatives. But if in a particular, given situation, a socialistic approach would work better than a capitalistic one, the socialistic approach should be used in that particular case.

 

 

 

Jagex objectives are to create a fun MMORPG and the second M in that abbreviation stands for Multiplayer, not for Maoism. If Jagex wanted to create stability they could just as well give every item a specific price (i.e. the high alch value) and assert that everyone has to pay the same price for the items. Where's the fun in that though?

 

 

 

They already do that, in various grades of directness. Jagex controls all item market prices simply by controlling the rate at which resources can be mined, rate of monster drops, etc. If they think an item should be cheaper, they just make it more available, and vice versa.

 

 

 

As for the assertion, they do that too with the GE, for better or for worse. Jagex already set the ballpark average price by controlling drops, and now they make sure nobody trades outside of that ballpark. Put together, those 2 items mean Jagex has complete control over the cost any item will go for.

 

 

 

Rares are an exception with regards to the first part, since Jagex can't control the percieved market price due to their non-droppability. The fact they can, and DO, control the actual market price (through GE) is where this disruptive action shows most.

 

 

 

If you think about it, Jagex's policy is pretty much as communistic as you can possibly get. They have a vision of what's a "fair" price for an item, and will both make sure the masses agree by controlling supply/demand (monster drops for supply, exp gained from an item for demand, etc), and now also make sure no "wise guy" will ever be able to substantially deviate from what they consider to be "fair". They also have a notion of how much it's "fair" to make per hour of work, which is why they removed easy moneymaking routes such as staking, because it's not "fair" in their eyes. They justify it on RWT, but I just don't buy that argument. It's very similar to Stalin enforcing his policies, and blaming the "people's enemies" for both having to implement the policy and for everything that goes wrong as a result of its implementation.

 

 

 

With respect to "where's the fun in that", I believe I repeatedly stated that Jagex's definition of "fun" is different from yours and mine, and is much more in line of what an eight-year-old kid considers "fun". :-)

 

 

 

In the end, I expect rares to hit rock bottom at some point and - assuming Jagex doesn't make any strange moves - they'll probably go back up again thereafter.

 

 

 

Rare prices are next to impossible to determine in the current situation, IMO. The GE will act as a deadweight to slow down price shifts, so regardless of whether the market wants rares or not, their price will remain more or less artificially stable until the overall situation stabilizes. Of course, its quite possible almost nobody will buy or sell rares (Jagex can set a false price, but they can't force players to trade at that price). Then again, it's quite likely that's what Jagex wants to do to begin with.


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No time to reply in detail at the moment.. perhaps later.

 

 

 

But overall.. this is not surprising. It happens all the time in bubbles created for useless items in the real world, and was only a matter of time before it happened in RS as well.


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No. In January the unbalenced trade update will go into effect. So, I'm assuming since no one can merchant them in the near future, merchants have gave up with rares, thus, causing them to crash in price.

 

 

 

pretty much what I was about to say :P

 

 

 

And if you hear rumors that players tell you, never believe them until Jagex made it offical.

 

 

 

Well the problem is, when Jagex tell you its too late.

 

Remember me saying about Jagex will remove drop piles, unbalanced trading and change Pking-only afew believed.

 

By the time Jagex made it official there was nothing people could do to change their fate, whilst sold all my chinchompas and bought raw materials.

 

Some rumours/speculation can be useful.

 

 

 

Anyway, this is not a rumour that i will believe; Jagex seem to have lost enough customers already, i doubt they want to see the backs of many more. :pray:

 

 

 

BTW, what price are rares atm?


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Yeah...Some people just go out of their way to ruin other peoples fun.
Sounds like Jagex to me...

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Probalby it's just a rumour that rares will go untradeable in January. But it's true that the prices will crash, since the merchanting update will arrive in January. This means no more merchanting and thereforce the prices will go down very much.


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I hope rares crash... I want a santa hat just so i can wear it, not to make profit off of.


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I hope rares crash... I want a santa hat just so i can wear it, not to make profit off of.

 

 

 

They won't be a status symbol any more. Won't be as admirable to wear. Agreed they may still look cool.

 

 

 

Anyway i suspect if rares crash, no-one would sell them because they are still 'rare' but not worth trading. When the crash they will be very hard to aquire and will probably rise again.


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Yeah...Some people just go out of their way to ruin other peoples fun.
Sounds like Jagex to me...

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Whatever they go, rare are a pure risk.

 

What if GE price is not the price rare owner want it to ?

 

- > no trades to price evolution, it can't move

 

- > trades = loss from wanted price ?

 

 

 

I've seen so many friends who though to be wise enough to buy a trimed/rare and finally lost money that it made me keeping myself away from it.

 

The worse is those who put all (or most) of their bank value in rares. What a shock when they fail !

 

 

 

Of course some have (will?) win some cash, but i think they are rare and wise enough not only playing only those items.


Oh baby light the dark side...

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