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primadog

GE Trends |UPDATED March 05th|

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Charts and data tables updated. It appears that the general prices faced a crash in the past three days.

 

 

 

 

 

Sledge, thanks for the data, but I can't get my excel charts to work correctly without a full set of data :( Maybe you can get it working?

 

 

 

Ah I see what you're doing... Yeah, I guess you can't use my info unless you do individual graphs.

 

 

 

I'll see what I can do with the rares.


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2.Snapdragon (this one actually suprised me because super restores our very easy to obtain through the ge)

 

 

 

 

And yet a couple of days ago I sold 2,000 of them for more than they are going for now.

 

 

 

The explanation is rather simple, actually. The 5% price limits are creating "overshoot" distortions in the market. Once prices start going up -- as they did with snapdragon for several days -- they go up 5% every day and tend to go much further up than they should. (I sold about 1k of my snaps for over 9k a piece, a crazy price well above what they were before all the recent changes.) Then when the price starts to drop, everyone jumps off the bandwagon, the price goes down 5% every day until the process reverses.

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure that this also explains the bizarre price moves in several other herbs (marrentill, toadflax) and several other commodities: oak logs, gold ore, certain potions, and definitely pure essence right now.


Qeltar, aka Charles Kozierok

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Charts and data tables updated. It appears that the general prices faced a crash in the past three days.

 

 

 

 

 

Sledge, thanks for the data, but I can't get my excel charts to work correctly without a full set of data :( Maybe you can get it working?

 

 

 

I don't understand what the problem is with your chart.. tell me and I can probably help.

 

 

 

~q


Qeltar, aka Charles Kozierok

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I just invested 5m in Blood runes. I might invest up to another 25m over this weekend. They are selling for 330gp on GE. I predict they are going to rise in price. There is no way to loose money here, as I can just sell them on Karamja with gloves for the same 330 so there is no risk :)

 

 

 

There's no store to do that.

 

 

 

Shilo Village general store with Karamja Diary Gloves. TYVM

 

 

 

The price adjusts after you sell one. You can only sell one blood for 330 gp.


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Ever wanted to find street prices of RS items? Check out the SPOLI Index

 

Nex Drops: Pernix Cowl, Pernix Chaps, Torva Helm, Torva Platebody, Zaryte Bow, Pernix Chaps, Virtus Robe Legs, Virtus Robe Top, Torva Platelegs, Zaryte Bow, Pernix Chaps, Virtus Robe Legs, Zaryte Bow, Virtus Mask, Torva Legs, Virtus Robe Legs, Virtus Robe Top, Virtus Robe Top, Zaryte Bow, Virtus Robe Legs, Virtus Robe Top, Virtus Robe Top, Torva Platelegs, Zaryte Bow, Pernix Body, Torva Platelegs, Torva Platelegs, Virtus Robe Top

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Here are graphs for the rares in the same format. I've split them up to make them easier to read.

 

 

 

minorchartmu0.png

 

 

 

activechartwf3.png

 

 

 

phatchartap2.png

 

 

 

^Yeah, that one isnt exactly useful.

 

 

 

They're all colour coded to their corresponding rare too :o

 

 

 

I'll post the raw data later if you like.


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WOW, it's a lot of time investing on this. Great job.

 

In the other hand, i don't think it can be usefull at all to predict as someone said, because there areno rules on this game, so i could get some friends and start minning something, let's say tin, and selling at the lowest price, that would make it's price fall, and none would have the hability to predict that.


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Just some thoughts on other interesting materials to follow (if anyone is interested):

 

 

 

Big bones

 

Dragon bones

 

Bowstrings

 

Blue dragonhide

 

Yew tree seed

 

Magic tree seed

 

Raw lobs

 

Raw sharks

 

Cooked lobs

 

Cooked sharks

 

Steel arrows

 

 

 

I would title all these materials as 'key' materials too, and they would roughly address the skills cooking, farming, prayer, crafting, range, fishing, fletching.

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I don't understand what the problem is with your chart.. tell me and I can probably help.

 

 

 

~q

 

 

 

broken.PNG

 

 

 

As you see, when I put in Sledge's data, excel won't connect the items with missing points.

 

 

 

Just some thoughts on other interesting materials to follow (if anyone is interested):

 

 

 

Big bones

 

Dragon bones

 

Bowstrings

 

Blue dragonhide

 

Yew tree seed

 

Magic tree seed

 

Raw lobs

 

Raw sharks

 

Cooked lobs

 

Cooked sharks

 

Steel arrows

 

 

 

I would title all these materials as 'key' materials too, and they would roughly address the skills cooking, farming, prayer, crafting, range, fishing, fletching.

 

 

 

We don't have many of the ones you listed tracked, so using them would mean we have to start from scratch. Is it possible to just hand pick the items we have already available for the index?


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As you see, when I put in Sledge's data, excel won't connect the items with missing points.

 

 

Chart on the front page looks fine though?

 

 

We don't have many of the ones you listed tracked, so using them would mean we have to start from scratch. Is it possible to just hand pick the items we have already available for the index?

 

I have prices of those items and many more from 12/31 and 1/4... part of a similar but larger project I have been working extensively on for the last week. I can give them to you if you like.


Qeltar, aka Charles Kozierok

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Featuring the Ultimate Guide to Dungeoneering -- everything you need to know to get the most of the new skill!

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As you see, when I put in Sledge's data, excel won't connect the items with missing points.

 

 

 

You could manually interpolate the missing data as a sort of dirty fix (be sure to mark the interpolating data somehow (in excel not in the graphs), to differentiate it from "actual" data).

 

 

 

I have prices of those items and many more from 12/31 and 1/4... part of a similar but larger project I have been working extensively on for the last week. I can give them to you if you like.

 

 

 

Just a suggestion... Since so many people seem to be tracking the prices of various items - wouldn't it be a good idea if you joined forces to work on gathering the data together. That might save some time, prevent data gaps, and makes it easier to track more items.

 

 

 

Either way, all this seems like something tip.it should be interested in, if you ask me. Ofcourse, Jagex promised to bring out more elaborate data too, but having the actual data ourself can never hurt either.

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marrentil are impossible to invest in now. I'm glad I put 11M in when i could :)

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I just invested 5m in Blood runes. I might invest up to another 25m over this weekend. They are selling for 330gp on GE. I predict they are going to rise in price. There is no way to loose money here, as I can just sell them on Karamja with gloves for the same 330 so there is no risk :)

 

 

 

There's no store to do that.

 

 

 

Shilo Village general store with Karamja Diary Gloves. TYVM

 

 

 

The price adjusts after you sell one. You can only sell one blood for 330 gp.

 

What's the lowest it can drop to in the store? I was just about to invest 20m in bloods =[]


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Now that the pure ess bubble has burst rune essence or reg ess is doing well. People are finding the cheaper alternative to rc with the shortage in pure. In fact, now there is a shortage in rune essence and we all know what that means. The price is going up :) Plus there is speculation that Jagex might get rid of pure ess which would also make reg rune essence rise. It could happen at any time but we all know Jagex likes to drag their feet on these things.. were still waiting for them to get rid of the ditch also with no more scamming possible.


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I just bought 130K more marrentil. 200K marrentil currently. :)

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I have a bit of a follow-up to Qeltar's "overshoot" comment. Qeltar started a thread in the Official Runescape Forum (Recent Updates about it) and tried to discuss pure essence -- quite a few people responded, including at least one Jagex employee several times. (Mod Mark H I believe) Jagex doesn't quite seem to understand Qeltar's argument, although it's economics 101: if you have price floors and price ceilings, you will have shortages. Some people will get more for their product than normal (case of price floor), and some less than normal (case of price ceiling). However, the vast majority of people will not get what they want -- it's just not available.

 

 

 

One off the cuff real-world nice example of that is Venezuela -- they're awash in oil money but have for a while been plagued with supply problems in basic goods and food because of the government's (like Jagex's) moronic inability to grasp how price ceilings and price floors work.

 

 

 

Expect many more of the rune essence type shortages in the future.

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I have prices of those items and many more from 12/31 and 1/4... part of a similar but larger project I have been working extensively on for the last week. I can give them to you if you like.

 

 

 

Would you be doing a similar index? If so, I will let you have the pleasure of making a working index for RuneScape.

 

 

 

 

Just a suggestion... Since so many people seem to be tracking the prices of various items - wouldn't it be a good idea if you joined forces to work on gathering the data together. That might save some time, prevent data gaps, and makes it easier to track more items.

 

 

 

That sounds like a great idea, having each person track a specific data set. So far it looks like Sledge is tracking rares, I am following each NPC, and qeltar is following market indicators. How's that division sound?

 

 

 

Finally, comments and suggestion on the "mover and shaker" section? I am also looking into having a simple table listed next to the charts, for referencing, but having trouble.


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I Thank you Primadog loud and clearly !

 

This is THE thing Runescape.com should have got since GE was on.

 

 

 

 

 

I wonder Jagex will follow your example to enable surch a tool (same as they do with stats) for every items in ge... with historic.

 

 

 

You do a great and wise job : congratz


Oh baby light the dark side...

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I have some insight on the rares market. The reason why prices are plummeting is because everyone is scared and selling. I would take this time to BUY for the long term. Rares aren't like logs or runes, there will never be more entering the market.

 

 

 

There is nowhere to go but up.

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i think mahoganys will rise, They were orginally forced down by the flooding of the market as MTK users found a way to sell their unwanted maples and have since been kept down by MTK users attempting to get the new eggs. Once the egg hype has died down MTK users will realise mahoganys aren't profitable and switch to flax/coal and the price should slowly recover over the next few months if enough people speculate it will rise and start the prices moving.

 

 

 

and on rares because they have no stat bonus the market depends on speculation and their position as status symbols, if a phat or h'ween mask is no longer a status symbol it would no longer be valuable. Their is no guarantee that rares will rise again

 

 

 

edit: a note on elementals, with the recent rise in people RC with normal rune ess this is like to have a knock on effect as only elementals can be crafted from this and thus elementals are likely to drop, then rise again as pure ess comes back down and people revert to normal RC, maybe a quick buck to be had with airs?

 

 

 

edit: edit: Does anyone have any idea why the prices of oaks are so outrageously volatile? I mean they're hardly likely to be used in summoning and construction came out a while ago.......


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Wow Tarromin are looking like a really good investment, they have been going straight up for over a week now.....

 

 

 

Also can you please update the new prices?


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He Said Excuse me Hell Slayer can I speak to you for a moment, would you like to join a clan called The White Legion?

 

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Lots of items go up for a straight week.. and then down for a straight week. And then repeat. Because the GE is completely out of whack and merchants are having a field day.

 

 

 

I'm guessing that updating this every single day is going to be more of a chore than primadog can handle.. I know it's way more than I could commit to. So let's all be patiend, I'm sure he'll update as he can.


Qeltar, aka Charles Kozierok

Webmaster, RuneScoop - Premium RuneScape Information for Expert Players -- Now Free!

Featuring the Ultimate Guide to Dungeoneering -- everything you need to know to get the most of the new skill!

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I can tell you this...tarromin and marrentil are still going way up. Its impossible to buy them right now. Oaks are crashing now and rune ess is settling at about 30. Its not going up anymore either.


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updated 1/11, missing a few thing, but a new section added

 

 

 

 

 

edit2: Arg, I hate rushing things. Will rewrite that section when I get a chance.

 

 

 

BTW, things to watch: when marrentil and tarromin drop, green masks, toadflax's rise.


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