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Oil and the Future


Yomyth105

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Every week the gas price increases and now its getting ridiculous. A full gas tank with "good" gas costs 70$ and im in an area with good gas prices. I cant imagine what it is like in the city. What will happen in the future? Discuss.

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[hide=Yahoo! News]New York - Some of the long-term factors that have pushed oil prices to record levels are starting to change.

 

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In large part because gasoline prices are over $4 a gallon, demand for fuel in the US is falling for the first time in 17 years. China is raising prices for gasoline and diesel a move that might ultimately lower demand. And, on Sunday, there were signs supply might increase as Saudi Arabia's oil minister indicated that the country would increase production through the end of the year if needed. Iraq is also set to sign contracts with foreign companies to hike production.

 

 

 

"It's all a step in the right direction," says Phil Flynn, an oil analyst and trader at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "These are certainly signs to the market that prices can't just continue to go up."

 

 

 

However, some of the shorter-term factors are becoming worse.

 

 

 

On Friday, the energy markets were digesting news of an attack on a Royal Dutch Shell oil platform in Nigeria that shut down over 200,000 barrels of oil per day in production. Then energy traders fretted over news of an Israeli military exercise involving 100 planes, with some speculating that the aim of the exercise was to send a message about Iran's nuclear ambitions.

 

 

 

And, it's not clear how badly the US corn crop, used to make ethanol, a gasoline additive, has been hurt by the flooding in the Midwest.

 

 

 

"These factors are keeping the price up for now," says Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy risk management at MF Global, a commodities brokerage.

 

 

 

By the end of day Friday, the price of oil had closed at $134.62, down 24 cents for the week. Nationally, the price of gasoline is $4.07 a gallon, according to American Automobile Association, down 1 cent a gallon from the record high.

 

 

 

Short term tensions

 

The attack on the Royal Dutch Shell platform occurred last Thursday, about 75 miles offshore. Although Nigerian rebels had attacked oil rigs before, this is the furthest from shore they have ventured. "When the manager saw the attack, he immediately shut down production of the oil and natural gas," says Rainer Winzenried, a spokesman for Shell in The Hague, Netherlands.

 

 

 

As of Sunday, the Shell platform was still shut down. Mr. Winzenried says Shell has declared force majeure, a legal move that frees the company from its obligation to deliver oil. "It can only put upward pressure on the prices," says Mr. Fitzpatrick.

 

 

 

The energy markets were also roiled by a news story in The New York Times that Israel had mounted a military exercise involving 100 F-15s and F-16s. The article linked the exercise to Iran's nuclear ambitions. "What are the Israelis thinking?" asks Fitzpatrick. "It lights up the whole area."

 

 

 

Over the short run, the energy markets are also watching for updated corn crop estimates given the flooding in the Farm Belt. On the futures market, the new crop corn is up about 25 percent in the first half of June. "One of the uncertainties is the ethanol situation in the Midwest," says Tancred Lidderdale, an energy analyst at the Energy Information Administration in Washington.

 

 

 

"A number of plants are shut down, there has been a disruption of the distribution process, and the railroads are flooded," he says. "We typically have gotten imports from Brazil, and they can increase their exports but I'm not sure they will."

 

 

 

With gasoline prices on the rise for months, consumers are now starting to cut back. According to the EIA, in the first quarter of the year, demand for gasoline fell about 100,000 barrels per day, or about 1.3 percent of daily consumption. For the year, EIA expects consumption to drop 0.7 percent over 2007. "This would be the first year over year decline in consumption since 1991," says Mr. Lidderdale.

 

 

 

The lower gasoline consumption is probably due largely to less driving. According to Department of Transportation statistics released last week, from November through April, Americans drove 30 billion fewer miles than the same period the prior year. "That's the sharpest drop in recorded history, some 66 years of collecting data," says Doug Hecox, a spokesman for the Federal Highway Administration in Washington, adding that "the drop took place before the price hit $4 a gallon."

 

 

 

China's price hike

 

Initially, oil prices fell after China announced it was raising the price of gasoline by 17 percent and the price of diesel by 18 percent. Some analysts thought it would cut demand, which grew by 7 to 8 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter. But, in the last three months, demand growth has slowed to 3 percent, partly because of shortages, says Paul Ting, an energy analyst.

 

 

 

Now, he says Chinese refiners, although they are still losing money, might increase production somewhat. "So, we have conflicting forces, higher prices which might have some marginal impact on demand and more product available from the refiners," he says. "I think the end result will be an increase in demand, but not back to the 8 percent growth rate."

 

 

 

Slowing demand may be met by an increase in supply. On Sunday, Saudi oil minister Ali el-Naimi, at a special meeting of oil consumers in Jeddah, said production might increase over the current 9.7 million barrels of oil per day if the market needs extra supplies.

 

 

 

The kingdom had already committed to produce an extra 200,000 barrels a day starting in July on top of an additional 300,000 produced in May.

 

 

 

The extra Saudi production comes at a time when Iraq is also talking about adding to its capacity. Last week, the Iraqi government said its production was up to 2.5 million barrels per day, about where it was prior to the coalition invasion. On Sunday, officials also said it was awarding additional oil contracts to 41 foreign companies in the hope of boosting exports by another 500,000 barrels per day. It will be the first time the global energy companies will be back in Iraq since Saddam Hussein kicked them out in 1972.

 

 

 

Wire service material was used in this story.[/hide]

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I read in National Geographic that, by the middle of the century, with an optimistic outlook, it is estimated that the world will have used half of it's oil reserves. Given the fact that oil has only been used in the last century and it's use is going up, we might be out of oil in 150 years. Nothing that concerns those of us that are alive now.

 

 

 

There are a couple of ways of looking at this. One is to not change our habits any, because it's their [the people of the future] problem to deal with when we run out of oil. The other way, which I don't think will be effective unless EVERYONE does it, is to cut back on oil use so that it lasts longer. Mark my words, if the world ran out of oil tomorrow, it wouldn't take more than a month or two before a new system is developed that's cheap and a reasonable replacement for gasoline use.

 

 

 

Oil is going up because of high demand, not because it's costing more to produce, refine, etc. Make the demand go down and you've got cheaper gas. The problem is, and I don't know why it took this long to figure out, but the oil companies know that we'll buy gas in the same quantities as we were, because most of us are dependent on it.

 

 

 

I drive about 45 miles a day for work alone, and that doesn't include anywhere else I drive. It doesn't sound like much of a daily drive, but I spend about $75 a week on gas at this rate. I won't ever cut back because the only way to do that would be to stop showing up for work and that won't happen. My demand will stay the same, and I know that a majority of the gasoline consumers in the world are in a similar situation. The minority of gasoline users have found ways, sometimes extreme, to lessen their gas use such as buying a hybrid, riding a bike, using mass transit, etc.

 

 

 

I'll say it again for emphasis though, if nothing happens and our oil habits don't change, a new system will be found and used. I'm not going to change anything except my driving habits because I might get 1 mpg more if I drive like an old man, but it all adds up I guess.

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[hide=Yahoo! News]New York - Some of the long-term factors that have pushed oil prices to record levels are starting to change.

 

ADVERTISEMENT

 

 

 

In large part because gasoline prices are over $4 a gallon, demand for fuel in the US is falling for the first time in 17 years. China is raising prices for gasoline and diesel a move that might ultimately lower demand. And, on Sunday, there were signs supply might increase as Saudi Arabia's oil minister indicated that the country would increase production through the end of the year if needed. Iraq is also set to sign contracts with foreign companies to hike production.

 

 

 

"It's all a step in the right direction," says Phil Flynn, an oil analyst and trader at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "These are certainly signs to the market that prices can't just continue to go up."

 

 

 

However, some of the shorter-term factors are becoming worse.

 

 

 

On Friday, the energy markets were digesting news of an attack on a Royal Dutch Shell oil platform in Nigeria that shut down over 200,000 barrels of oil per day in production. Then energy traders fretted over news of an Israeli military exercise involving 100 planes, with some speculating that the aim of the exercise was to send a message about Iran's nuclear ambitions.

 

 

 

And, it's not clear how badly the US corn crop, used to make ethanol, a gasoline additive, has been hurt by the flooding in the Midwest.

 

 

 

"These factors are keeping the price up for now," says Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy risk management at MF Global, a commodities brokerage.

 

 

 

By the end of day Friday, the price of oil had closed at $134.62, down 24 cents for the week. Nationally, the price of gasoline is $4.07 a gallon, according to American Automobile Association, down 1 cent a gallon from the record high.

 

 

 

Short term tensions

 

The attack on the Royal Dutch Shell platform occurred last Thursday, about 75 miles offshore. Although Nigerian rebels had attacked oil rigs before, this is the furthest from shore they have ventured. "When the manager saw the attack, he immediately shut down production of the oil and natural gas," says Rainer Winzenried, a spokesman for Shell in The Hague, Netherlands.

 

 

 

As of Sunday, the Shell platform was still shut down. Mr. Winzenried says Shell has declared force majeure, a legal move that frees the company from its obligation to deliver oil. "It can only put upward pressure on the prices," says Mr. Fitzpatrick.

 

 

 

The energy markets were also roiled by a news story in The New York Times that Israel had mounted a military exercise involving 100 F-15s and F-16s. The article linked the exercise to Iran's nuclear ambitions. "What are the Israelis thinking?" asks Fitzpatrick. "It lights up the whole area."

 

 

 

Over the short run, the energy markets are also watching for updated corn crop estimates given the flooding in the Farm Belt. On the futures market, the new crop corn is up about 25 percent in the first half of June. "One of the uncertainties is the ethanol situation in the Midwest," says Tancred Lidderdale, an energy analyst at the Energy Information Administration in Washington.

 

 

 

"A number of plants are shut down, there has been a disruption of the distribution process, and the railroads are flooded," he says. "We typically have gotten imports from Brazil, and they can increase their exports but I'm not sure they will."

 

 

 

With gasoline prices on the rise for months, consumers are now starting to cut back. According to the EIA, in the first quarter of the year, demand for gasoline fell about 100,000 barrels per day, or about 1.3 percent of daily consumption. For the year, EIA expects consumption to drop 0.7 percent over 2007. "This would be the first year over year decline in consumption since 1991," says Mr. Lidderdale.

 

 

 

The lower gasoline consumption is probably due largely to less driving. According to Department of Transportation statistics released last week, from November through April, Americans drove 30 billion fewer miles than the same period the prior year. "That's the sharpest drop in recorded history, some 66 years of collecting data," says Doug Hecox, a spokesman for the Federal Highway Administration in Washington, adding that "the drop took place before the price hit $4 a gallon."

 

 

 

China's price hike

 

Initially, oil prices fell after China announced it was raising the price of gasoline by 17 percent and the price of diesel by 18 percent. Some analysts thought it would cut demand, which grew by 7 to 8 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter. But, in the last three months, demand growth has slowed to 3 percent, partly because of shortages, says Paul Ting, an energy analyst.

 

 

 

Now, he says Chinese refiners, although they are still losing money, might increase production somewhat. "So, we have conflicting forces, higher prices which might have some marginal impact on demand and more product available from the refiners," he says. "I think the end result will be an increase in demand, but not back to the 8 percent growth rate."

 

 

 

Slowing demand may be met by an increase in supply. On Sunday, Saudi oil minister Ali el-Naimi, at a special meeting of oil consumers in Jeddah, said production might increase over the current 9.7 million barrels of oil per day if the market needs extra supplies.

 

 

 

The kingdom had already committed to produce an extra 200,000 barrels a day starting in July on top of an additional 300,000 produced in May.

 

 

 

The extra Saudi production comes at a time when Iraq is also talking about adding to its capacity. Last week, the Iraqi government said its production was up to 2.5 million barrels per day, about where it was prior to the coalition invasion. On Sunday, officials also said it was awarding additional oil contracts to 41 foreign companies in the hope of boosting exports by another 500,000 barrels per day. It will be the first time the global energy companies will be back in Iraq since Saddam Hussein kicked them out in 1972.

 

 

 

Wire service material was used in this story.[/hide]

 

 

 

I saw that the other day. The thing is there's only a certain amount of oil in the world and it will be depleted someday unless we find some way to produce oil. Until then, oil prices will only continue to rise even after it falls drastically.

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I <3 Gears of War 2.

 

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It made me laugh that for my friend's 18th his mum got him a full tank of diesel for his van. Came to about £80. :mrgreen:

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It made me laugh that for my friend's 18th his mum got him a full tank of diesel for his van. Came to about £80. :mrgreen:

 

Lol! :lol:

 

Guess it really makes sense though. I don't understand the difference in diesel though. Is it just more combustible? I just my Jeep doesn't run on it, boy did I learn that. :oops:

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"Oil" and "future" are almost oxymorons. Technology should be at the state where we don't have to get energy from underground. We just need a catalyst for a lot of alternative energy research. And it looks like that may be happening.

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It made me laugh that for my friend's 18th his mum got him a full tank of diesel for his van. Came to about £80. :mrgreen:

 

 

 

My birthday is Sunday and my mom offered for my present to be a full tank of gas, lol. Even though it sounds tempting, I went with a year of XBL instead :)

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I <3 Gears of War 2.

 

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Oil isn't rising because of increased demand or decrease in output. Saudi Arabia is constantly increasing it's oil output while biofuels are becoming more and more popular. If anything, the supply is rising and the demand is staying the same. The problem is that the corporations are pushing the prices up, and the stock market is helping.

 

 

 

I just hope that this is just a very big bubble that will eventually burst like the housing market, but for as long as the demand stays high, that is a very optimistic view.

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Im sure America will attack Iran because they "have" weapons of mass destruction and come across lots and lots of oil by accidnet and the fuel crisis will be sorted out!

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If we keep on using oil like we do, we will soon run out of oil. The fact that we use up all the oil doesn't scare me as much as the consequences of burning fissil fuel.

 

 

 

[hide=Global warming for newbies](This explanation is very simplified, and some important details may be left out)

 

 

 

In the atmosphere, there are certain gases that reflect heat coming from the Earth. This is called the greenhouse effect. Without the greenhouse effect, the average temperature would be -19 degrees Celsius, instead of 15 degrees, which we currently have.

 

 

 

Close to all living things(animals, plants and stuff) contain carbon. When a thing containing carbon is burnt or is rotting, it will release that carbon in either CO2 or CH4(methan). This a part of a natural circle, and is not affecting the greenhouse effect. Oil and other fossil fuels, however, come from a storage which is not a part of this. When we add burn these items and add greenhouse gasses to the circle, more heat will be reflected to the Earth. This will lead to a raise in average temperature. Even a very small raise in temperature can change many things, and make it impossible to live like we live today.[/hide]

 

 

 

 

Im sure America will attack Iran because they "have" weapons of mass destruction and come across lots and lots of oil by accidnet and the fuel crisis will be sorted out!

 

 

No. There is little oil left on this planet. And regardless of that, how do you think more oil to America will solve a global conflict?

 

 

 

Well, one of these days, there will be no oil left, and we have to use other sources. As far as I know, there are two major contestants to oil products.

 

 

 

Biodiesel - Diesel made from plant oils. It will not affect the amount of greenhouse gasses, and it is renewable. However, there are people starving because they don't have enough of these plants, and making fuel out of this will decrease the amount of food in the world.

 

 

 

Hydrogen - Yay! A marvellous and non-polluting fuel. The only problem is to find a gainful way to "make" hydrogen.

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Americans are whiny. 'Gas' is $9 per gallon in the UK. Get over yourselves.

For it is the greyness of dusk that reigns.

The time when the living and the dead exist as one.

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Every week the gas price increases and now its getting ridiculous. A full gas tank with "good" gas costs 70$ and im in an area with good gas prices. I cant imagine what it is like in the city. What will happen in the future? Discuss.

 

 

 

Everyone will use pedal power

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There are two schools of thought as to why the oil price is so high at the momet. Some insist that it's basic supply and demand economics, demand is high, supply is low ergo prices are high. But i'm not convinced by this. From what i've read, it seems to me that the oil price has long since become decoupled from the market equilibrium, and is now soaring because of self-fulfilling speculation on the price rising.

 

 

 

This is a key section from a very interesting article which explains the alternative view:

 

 

 

To see that these fundamentals are all irrelevant, we have merely to ask which of them has changed in the past nine months. The answer is none. The oil markets didn't suddenly discover China's oil demand nine months ago so this cannot explain the doubling of prices since last August. In fact, China's insatiable demand growth has decelerated. In 2004 it was consuming an extra 0.9 million barrels a day; in 2007 it was consuming just an extra 0.3 mbd. In the same period global demand growth has slowed from 3.6 mbd to 0.7 mbd. As a result, the increase in global demand growth is now well below last year's increase of 0.8 mbd in non-Opec production, according to Mike Rothman, of ISI, a leading New York consulting group.

 

 

 

Full Article

 

 

 

As to what the future holds, I don't think we'll remain dependent on Middle-Eastern oil for much longer. Incentives have never been stronger for alternative energy providers to buck their ideas and come up with the next energy source, I don't think it'll be long.

"Da mihi castitatem et continentam, sed noli modo"

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Americans are whiny. 'Gas' is $9 per gallon in the UK. Get over yourselves.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

so many things i could say, but i am tired. I guess i will limit it to

 

 

 

why are you talking?

 

 

 

 

 

this a serious discussion that is not based on one nation especially since its a world wide product and "issue"

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Americans are whiny. 'Gas' is $9 per gallon in the UK. Get over yourselves.

 

 

 

so many things i could say, but i am tired. I guess i will limit it to

 

why are you talking?

 

this a serious discussion that is not based on one nation especially since its a world wide product and "issue"

 

 

 

It's a fair point though that petrol prices in the UK are much higher than in the US, and since we have a lower disposable income on average than Americans rising oil prices hurt us more, and is more likely to push the UK into any kind of recession than the US at a simplistic level.

"Da mihi castitatem et continentam, sed noli modo"

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Its sad, either way. Oil goes up ten cents, the public freaks out. After a couple weeks, the price goes five cents down, and everyone is relieved. Yet, they forget that they are still paying five cents more than they used to.

 

 

 

I think I'll ride my bike everywhere.

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Meh, I'm gonna use wind power for my vehicle.

 

 

 

Yes, I'm going to put four-wheel-drive wheels on my sailboat and sail everywhere. Best idea ever.

 

 

 

Anyways, I vote look into better ways to produce biodiesel (without making food prices shoot up) using leftover wastes, particularly from fast-food chains, and even better, hydrogen.

catch it now so you can like it before it went so mainstream

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[Americans drive twice as much as the English, their entire economy survives on traveling long distances every day.

 

 

 

Is that just something you pulled out your [wagon]? (Not the economy bit)

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Would be funny if McCain gets voted in and makes that plan for a $300 million dollar prize for a good battery happen.

 

Then in a few months after some big oil company "miraculously" discovers a new source for energy. :lol: Would be a little fishy. :^o

 

 

 

 

 

Funny how we complain of oil prices going up and yet we still pay for it. =D> They showed lots of people yesterday on the news and one after another they said it was outrageous and complaint after complaint after complaint kept being said. :lol: I love those people, they make my day.

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Funny how we complain of oil prices going up and yet we still pay for it. =D> They showed lots of people yesterday on the news and one after another they said it was outrageous and complaint after complaint after complaint kept being said. :lol: I love those people, they make my day.

 

What are they supposed to do, go out, buy a bike, and bike ten miles to work everyday in a suit? People can't just suddenly stop driving a car. You have to understand that, even if people hate buying oil, they still need it to get to places.

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Americans are whiny. 'Gas' is $9 per gallon in the UK. Get over yourselves.

 

 

 

With that logic, we could ignore every problem in our developed countries because 3rd world countries have worse problems. Stop using this "get over it. europe pays more" bull crap to us. Just because we pay less than others do that means we should sit there watching prices roll up and up with no end with the gas company CEOs (as Linkin Park puts it) "laughing their way to the bank and cashing the check" and our transportation and dependancy on oil are in jeopardy? Just because the UK is taking their gas prices with their mouths shut and their tiny smartcars rolling down the street doesn't mean we have to do the same.

 

 

 

Now that I'm done raving, I'll try to put something into this thread. Toyota has already developed a car that runs purely on hydrogen and emits only water vapor. not only is this safe for the environment but the car gets 70 mpg too. Currently the car is only sold in southern california. but if we can get more places to buy such cars and enough hydrogen, we can screw ExxonMobil. There's also E-85 ethanol. already Venezuela has transitioned and is completely dependant on the grain product to run their cars. The only good thing about rising gas prices is that it helps our nation to find other ways to reduce their dependancy. Hybrid technology, carpooling, public transportation... we're on our way.

 

 

 

Africa's sitting on a gold mine of minerals and oil. If the countries governments can find efficient ways to handle their resources (because currently the only way for them to get it is with american companies help) we can have Africa be a fully developed country and increase our oil supply.

 

 

 

On a side note: I feel really bad for Canada right now. They get their own oil from their own country but then need to ship it to American refineries to get it refined, then shipped back to Canada as fuel. If they had their own refineries they could control their own prices. Meh, they'll find maple syrup powered cars eventually.

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tip it would pay me $500.00 to keep my clothes ON :( :lol:
But then again, you fail to realize that 101% of the people in this universe hate you. Yes, humankind's hatred against you goes beyond mathematical possibilities.
That tears it. I'm starting an animal rebellion using my mind powers. Those PETA bastards will never see it coming until the porcupines are half way up their asses.
[/hide]

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