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I've never run into an anti vaxxer in the wild before, I thought it was a big meme out of control. I just can't believe anyone would think it's the right idea. It's like the whole flat Earth thing.


#KERR2016/17/18/19/20/21.

 

#rpgformod

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Yea but someone with that many followers has a fair amount of influence. It's like idol worship, anything people with that many followers says has significant consequence due to the broad range of the audience. It's irresponsible to promote something as dangerous as anti vax when your voice carries that much weight (or at all, but especially when you have a platform)

 

One idiot is bad, but an idiot feeding thousands of uninformed others is tremendously dangerous

 

I think shes probably a true believer which is why shes saying it. And in a way its tragic for her as well, that she may think because she has a large platform she can spread her worldview but instead all anyone cares about is her booty pics.

 

But yes you get enough people and a few individuals are bound to behave in weird ways. I'm sure theres a few dozen people who might become anti vaxxers because of her. But I also am sure theres a few dozen people who might become stalkers and dox her and harass her as well because they thought she was hot and decided they own her now.

 

And I don't think your responsible for unstable members of your audience even if you want to be

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I think that's a pretty big get out of jail free card...


"Fight for what you believe in, and believe in what you're fighting for." Can games be art?

---

 

 

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I'll preface this by saying I haven't looked at any kind of meta analysis of employment statistics

 

but from my completely anecdotal personal experience of gathering takes from people in the engineering industry, I get the impression that the job market for young people is bleaker than it has been in some time. and I seemingly hear this over and over from people. yet unemployment is very low.

 

I know that statistic doesn't include people who have stopped looking - were a lot of people just knocked out after the recession and have stopped trying to get up? are more of the current jobs considered shitty than they used to be? are people living and working longer, preventing people lower down from moving up and creating a logjam at the bottom?

 

I don't really follow mainstream media but it seems that people on the right and left were saying in 2016 that the us job market was in the worst state it had been in decades. that doesn't seem like something that could really reverse in 2 years. of course at election time both sides have an incentive to sell the idea that everything is going to hell unless they get out in charge, but I still see this take from normal people who have no reason to try to convince me either way

 

if I can't even confidently assess the present state I don't see how I can make recommendations for the future

 

/ramblepost


TANSTAAFL

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but from my completely anecdotal personal experience of gathering takes from people in the engineering industry, I get the impression that the job market for young people is bleaker than it has been in some time. and I seemingly hear this over and over from people. yet unemployment is very low.

the problem with anecdotal evidence such as this is that there's no way it can capture a society wide phenomenon. I've heard (and experienced) pretty much the opposite, at least in technical fields.

 

I know that statistic doesn't include people who have stopped looking - were a lot of people just knocked out after the recession and have stopped trying to get up? are more of the current jobs considered shitty than they used to be? are people living and working longer, preventing people lower down from moving up and creating a logjam at the bottom?

it is true that labor force participation rate has declined over the past 20 years (though it is still much higher than it was in the 50s and 60s), though it does tend to have a moderate inverse relationship to unemployment rate (there's been a recent uptick as unemployment has gone down).

 

There are definitely demographic issues that most western countries have relating to aging populations and increased female participation in the workforce. The implications of all this definitely go beyond the scope of my knowledge though

 

I don't really follow mainstream media but it seems that people on the right and left were saying in 2016 that the us job market was in the worst state it had been in decades. that doesn't seem like something that could really reverse in 2 years. of course at election time both sides have an incentive to sell the idea that everything is going to hell unless they get out in charge, but I still see this take from normal people who have no reason to try to convince me either way

 

if I can't even confidently assess the present state I don't see how I can make recommendations for the future

 

/ramblepost

Unemployment in 2016 was at 4.7%, so it's definitely decreased since then...the economy has generally done well over the past 2 years. There was a minor recession in 2015-2016, so some of it is a rebound from that. Still, 4.7% unemployment isn't at all bad.

 

I think a lot of the angst about the job market in 2016 was due to the political angle like you suggest, but also because emotional and anecdotal evidence tends to resonate with people more than statistics do. If a minor recession occurs and 100k people lose their jobs, the natural emotional reaction to that is to freak out, but as previously mentioned it's not nearly as big of a problem as some might think.

 

Anyway - the big takeaway from all this is not that everything is 100% great and definitely going to remain so - more that people like to panic and it isn't always warranted. Though there are some negative indications, there are a lot of positive ones too.


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"It's not a rest for me, it's a rest for the weights." - Dom Mazzetti

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I'll preface this by saying I haven't looked at any kind of meta analysis of employment statistics

...

if I can't even confidently assess the present state I don't see how I can make recommendations for the future

 

This is probably the most intelligent approach to anything that is as complicated as national employment trends - Admitting that you don't have the answers. What I find most frustrating is that someone somewhere has hard factual data on these things, but it's always impossible to find through all the garbage and bias of other people's thoughts and opinions.

 

I wonder if nepotism also adds to the "bleak" factor in modern job hunting.


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I'll preface this by saying I haven't looked at any kind of meta analysis of employment statistics

...

if I can't even confidently assess the present state I don't see how I can make recommendations for the future

 

This is probably the most intelligent approach to anything that is as complicated as national employment trends - Admitting that you don't have the answers. What I find most frustrating is that someone somewhere has hard factual data on these things, but it's always impossible to find through all the garbage and bias of other people's thoughts and opinions.

 

I wonder if nepotism also adds to the "bleak" factor in modern job hunting.


Quote

 

Quote

Anyone who likes tacos is incapable of logic.

Anyone who likes logic is incapable of tacos.

 

PSA: SaqPrets is an Estonian Dude

Steam: NippleBeardTM

Origin: Brand_New_iPwn

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This is probably the most intelligent approach to anything that is as complicated as national employment trends - Admitting that you don't have the answers. What I find most frustrating is that someone somewhere has hard factual data on these things, but it's always impossible to find through all the garbage and bias of other people's thoughts and opinions.

Actually, a lot of these questions are just hard to answer. Statistics can give you the basic facts, but extrapolating complex trends from that is hard enough that there's an entire profession devoted to doing so. There are a lot of really good economics papers that cover these questions, but there isn't always a consensus, and they aren't necessarily written with the average person in mind.

 

 

 

 

I wonder if nepotism also adds to the "bleak" factor in modern job hunting.

 

 

if I had to guess I'd say nepotism is probably *less* prevalent now than ever, if for no other reason than that companies have much larger pools to recruit from and many more means of doing so than they did 30 years ago.

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I think that's a pretty big get out of jail free card...

missed this...what's the alternative, though? There will always be people (lots of them) who do stupid stuff and look to someone influential to provide something that can vaguely justify it. It's not prudent to hold people responsible for the actions of others unless the actions are extremely serious, and it's practically certain that the person of influence is knowingly acting maliciously.


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Take for example, Alex Jones. His whole persona is stirring up absolute bat shit insane conspiracy theories, but then he's surprised when the "schizophrenics go to these people's[parents of Sandy Hook victims] homes and threaten them" (his words)

 

If you are lucky enough to build a fan base with a large platform, it is your responsibility to use it for good and not evil. Spreading dangerous propaganda should be met with resistance and the influencer should absolutely be held accountable


Quote

 

Quote

Anyone who likes tacos is incapable of logic.

Anyone who likes logic is incapable of tacos.

 

PSA: SaqPrets is an Estonian Dude

Steam: NippleBeardTM

Origin: Brand_New_iPwn

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Agreed (about responsibility, anyway), but you do you do that practically? unless someone nakedly condones violence, you immediately fall into the trap of government essentially having to decide what opinions are acceptable and which aren't, which causes massive problems much worse than anything alex jones does

 

and tbh dealing in misinformation and highly biased viewpoints is just as prevalent in a lot of "mainstream", "respectable" media as it is someone like AJ. I almost think he's better because at least the average person is probably pretty aware he's full of shit


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Jones does make those "non-average" people a lot worse than they would be without his existence. My dad has always been conservative, but it's only been since he started listening to Jones and alt right people online that it's felt dangerous. I don't feel that, had he only ever had access to mainstream media, his political opinions would have ever been this far right.

 

So I guess you have to weigh whether "won't be taken seriously by most people" is enough of a benefit to outweigh "will radicalize some people and make them out and out neo nazis". My cost/benefit feels like, no, that's not a good tradeoff, but

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Jones does make those "non-average" people a lot worse than they would be without his existence. My dad has always been conservative, but it's only been since he started listening to Jones and alt right people online that it's felt dangerous. I don't feel that, had he only ever had access to mainstream media, his political opinions would have ever been this far right.

 

So I guess you have to weigh whether "won't be taken seriously by most people" is enough of a benefit to outweigh "will radicalize some people and make them out and out neo nazis". My cost/benefit feels like, no, that's not a good tradeoff, but

How many people are actually neo-nazis because of alex jones (and other online personalities), though? I think it's probably a miniscule amount. Furthermore, how many neo-nazis actually engage in violent or illegal activity?

 

Again - if you accept that the government has the right to decide what opinions are acceptable and which aren't, that immediately affects *everybody* - and suppression of free speech rarely tends to work out in its proponents favour.

 

My view is basically that isolated violence perpetrated by a few select idiots is much preferable to mass violence perpetrated by the state, which is what you get when you take away free speech rights.


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>the problem with anecdotal evidence such as this is that there's no way it can capture a society wide phenomenon. I've heard (and experienced) pretty much the opposite, at least in technical fields.

 

that's fair and it does make sense. but I think there are other factors that actually do make it worse. like student loan debt is at an all time high.

 

even if you're more likely to get a job (any job) as an entry level worker in 2019, I think you're still a lot further away from achieving the lifestyle your parents had. by that I mean when my dad was growing up, his mother didn't work, his father worked a middle class job, but they had a house and supported him and his two brothers, sent all 3 of them to college. even my parents working lower middle class type jobs were able to afford a house, 2 cars, 5 kids etc at a young age, only a few years older than I am now.

 

so maybe the unemployment rate is low but it feels like there are fewer jobs than ever that actually provide you with that type of lifestyle. especially as the country becomes more and more urbanized, with so many of those jobs concentrated in urban/suburban areas where prices are so inflated

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TANSTAAFL

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That problem is wage growth vs inflation. Our parents (and their parents, to a degree) had higher wages relative to cost of living than we do for the most part.

Also houses were a lot smaller and more basic. Although my mom lived in a house where my grandparents paid like $60/month mortgage, the house is smaller than the one I live in now (it was under 1,000 square feet; my home is about 900 sq/feet) and didn't have central heating/cooling, etc. They don't build houses like that anymore ("starter houses" is what they were called?), plus with real estate being seen as an investment, prices are higher. This is a different problem than wage growth.

 

<socialist>

The bourgeoisie are stealing pocketing the increases in our increased productivity because they're getting greedier and greedier. This is unsustainable! To the gulags!

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@both of you: I agree, but the single biggest reason for this is likely increased female participation in the labor force. Increased supply of workers = more competition for jobs, salary declining. Unless we want to return to 1950s, where most women didn't work, this is the reality we have now.


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Weird thing to blame it on but ok

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Weird thing to blame it on but ok

Why is it weird? It's completely consistent with economic theory that when you increase the supply of something relative to demand it has a depressive effect on prices (salaries when it comes to employement).

 

Here's some info on female labor force participation rate if you doubt that it's increased significantly since the 50s.

 

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don't we see the same stagnation of real wages in fields that were all male and remain nearly all male?


TANSTAAFL

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don't we see the same stagnation of real wages in fields that were all male and remain nearly all male?

Yes, but competition for those jobs still increases with the size of the labour pool because competition in other fields (where women work more) increases too - there are more men trying to get jobs in male dominated fields because it's harder for them to get jobs in fields that were previously male dominated and aren't anymore.

 

This is one of the "negative" effects of increase female labour force participation, but there have been a ton of positives too - consumer goods are generally much less expensive today than they were fifty years ago. The increased pace of technology and innovation is also due to more women working to a significant extent. My point is just that when it comes to economics, most phenomenon are not *all good* or *all bad* - in most cases, there are pros and cons..these things are all about tradeoffs. What you consider an appropriate tradeoff depends on your personal biases, like most things.


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Weird thing to blame it on but ok

Why is it weird? It's completely consistent with economic theory that when you increase the supply of something relative to demand it has a depressive effect on prices (salaries when it comes to employement).

 

Here's some info on female labor force participation rate if you doubt that it's increased significantly since the 50s.

 

lfpsex25.gif

 

So of all of the literally millions of things that correlate with income inequality, you decided to pick labor force participation rate by gender? You don't think that's weird?

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So of all of the literally millions of things that correlate with income inequality, you decided to pick labor force participation rate by gender? You don't think that's weird?

The posts I responded to didn't say anything about income inquality, they were saying salaries were higher when households had a single income. In response, I show that salaries declined in large part because most modern households have dual income, which is highly correlated with increased female participation in the labour force. No, I don't think it's weird, I think it's answering the question that was asked.


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In here we are currently at a phase where older people are feeling left out and people over 50-55 have the largest struggles with unemployment. Everybody wants to hire young people here these days, cause they are more eager and willing to do more work for less money.

 

In other words, "finished" my training at work and in shifts now. Pretty cool. Didn't take half as long as I thoight it would.


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So I've noticed this thread's regulars all follow similar trends.

 

RPG is constantly dealing with psycho exes.

Muggi reminds us of the joys of polygamy.

Saq is totally oblivious to how much chicks dig him.

I strike out every other week.

Kalphite wages a war against the friend zone.

Randox pretty much stays rational.

Etc, etc

 

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