Is there such a thing as 'dry worlds'?

[Joskeuhtje1]

When I go to the God Wars Dungeon, and we haven't got a drop in 40 kc, my team mates start saying: 'lmfao dry world lets hop'

 

 

 

Are drops randoms, or are there really dry worlds?

 

What do you think?

[Musky44]

I experience dry worlds all the time, and they seem to exist.

 

They're either dry, or you're just unlucky :/

[blakdragon39]

I'm pretty sure it's just luck. :P

[oliboli1992]

i've heard of it before people say it is caused if they world has given out a good loot recently it won't give out another good loot for a while...but do not take this as it to be true..this is what i heard, i'm not sure if it's right..

[Joskeuhtje1]

i've heard of it before people say it is caused if they world has given out a good loot recently it won't give out another good loot for a while...but do not take this as it to be true..this is what i heard, i'm not sure if it's right..

 

 

 

Yes, they say for example: I got hilt last trip in this world so let's hop

[Musky44]

i've heard of it before people say it is caused if they world has given out a good loot recently it won't give out another good loot for a while...but do not take this as it to be true..this is what i heard, i'm not sure if it's right..

 

 

 

Yes, they say for example: I got hilt last trip in this world so let's hop

 

 

 

Usually you won't see two hilts in the same world in like an hour.

 

My most common one was 2 hilts 2 ss in 4 hours in the same world.

[oliboli1992]

well my group managed to camp at sara for about 2 - 3 hours and we got 2 sara hilt...in one trip...epic times!!

[Wkw]

It is a common superstition of corp beast teams that if a world got a sigil in 2-3 days time, they avoid it

[SwordKing]

It's all maths. Dry worlds don't exist, I'm sure.

[Da_Latios]

I've never experienced "dry worlds". Paranoid American gaming conspirators tbh.

[Bauke]

Selective perception.

[Zaaps1]

It's all in your head. If switching worlds makes your team better, then do that. Your still just wasting time though, but if it raises the moral of your team it's worth it.

[Will H]

It's almost certain that dry worlds do not exist, but it's going to be very hard to prove this. After all, it is rare for example to get a hilt drop in a single given trip, let alone two. People see this and assume that a mechanism is in place that prevents it. It's human nature, we like to think that there's patterns and causes to everything.

 

 

 

If a large part of your team wants to switch, it's best to do it instead of arguing with them and potentially losing them and not getting any kills at all!

[Master_Smither]

Drops are not world specific

 

 

 

I have hilt-coins-coins-hilt in the same world at bandos. It's all luck which is not effected by the ring of wealth if your lsing/csing.

[Dragonlordjl]

It's all superstition. The drops are rolled from a chart resembling a roulette table. Just like in roulette, certain numbers may get hot, but it's all selective perception. It's not that numbers get hot, it's just a cluster of random variation. If you flip a coin twenty times and on the last 8 flips you get all tails, does that mean the coin has a greater chance to flip tails? No. It's just a random variation which occurs in a cluster.

[compfreak847]

I've gotten back to back chests and 3 hilts in 1 trip at 1 world at bandos. It's all in their head, it's their brain trying to make a pattern where there is none.

[Maximusa]

Wonder if mathematically it would be a better 'chance' to hop when a drop has occurred by someone else.

 

 

 

Your less likely to get a drop after a drop by any person compared to getting a drop after 100 attempts by any person.

 

 

 

Logically they do exist as your less likely to get a drop after one has occurred compared to hopping to a world that has had more attempts. I wouldnt think it counts with yourself though as your count remains the same if you hop or not.

 

 

 

You have to know the drops on each world though to make it worth while. Otherwise your hopping onto a world that just had a drop. So while they exist its difficult to know which worlds are more 'wet' than others.

[Bauke]

Wonder if mathematically it would be a better 'chance' to hop when a drop has occurred by someone else.

 

 

 

Your less likely to get a drop after a drop by any person compared to getting a drop after 100 attempts by any person.

 

 

 

Logically they do exist as your less likely to get a drop after one has occurred compared to hopping to a world that has had more attempts. I wouldnt think it counts with yourself though as your count remains the same if you hop or not.

 

Uhm no. That's not how the concept of "chance" works.

[Maximusa]

In a open field lightening is unlikely to hit in the same place twice. If you stand somewhere else you have more 'chance' of being hit again than standing in the same place. Its still chance but you know its less likely to happen and its chances have decreased. Everywhere else has increased.

[compfreak847]

In a open field lightening is unlikely to hit in the same place twice. If you stand somewhere else you have more 'chance' of being hit again than standing in the same place. Its still chance but you know its less likely to happen and its chances have decreased. Everywhere else has increased.

 

That's lightning, a physical phenomenon not a mathematical concept. In probability, the previous and future drops have no effect whatsoever on the current drop.

[Master_Smither]

Well I knew I had it somewhere and I found it.

 

 

 

My team was telling me to hope because this world was dry and it sucked. Well the picture explains itself.

 

 

 

[brunokiller]

Considering a computer generated random number is never truly random but most of the time uses your computer clock and other variables to produce a semi-random number, it could be that the world number makes a difference.

[RuneAge]

I'm not sure if Dry worlds are true or not, on the first time i went to bandos, i got a hilt split, bandos chest plate split x2, and tassets, now i think that it was just luck, where-as i've gone before and got nothing, so, maybe there true, not sure though.. :|

[Maximusa]

In a open field lightening is unlikely to hit in the same place twice. If you stand somewhere else you have more 'chance' of being hit again than standing in the same place. Its still chance but you know its less likely to happen and its chances have decreased. Everywhere else has increased.

 

That's lightning, a physical phenomenon not a mathematical concept. In probability, the previous and future drops have no effect whatsoever on the current drop.

 

 

 

There is less chance of getting a drop after a previous drop than after 100 drops. There is more chance getting a drop after 50 attempts than 25 but less than 100. The chance increases each time. Its random but its chance of happening will increase.

 

 

 

I pretty certain if a survey of this was done that they would discover more drops happened after 20 than 10. More after 10 than 5. I know those results from other rare drops. The results will show a favour towards it happening later than sooner - as each kill occurs as the more attempts the greater the likelihood. The fact each kill individually has the same chance is irrelevant when your doing 100 kills. You have to factor in any previous kills you or others have done for it happening on that world. Put it all together mathematically and you created higher and lower odds of a drop occurring. Creating drier and wetter worlds.

[Maximusa]

To be clear when I say a survey of people its a survey of all the worlds at once and their drops. A drop is more likely to occur on a different world than your own if it has been the most recent. So hopping to any one of them will increase your odds - but this topic is about if you can class them as wet or dry which I think you can. If you mean dry worlds by worlds that have recently had a drop reducing their odds of it happening again significantly to a world that hasnt had a drop in ages - increases its chances mathematically that one is going to happen sooner. Its because that other world has had less opportunities for it to drop than the one in which it just happened.