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Tip.it Times 8 November 2009


n_odie

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There are 2 points in the article that annoy me.

 

The first one is your Titanic analogy. The Titanic sank because it was slashed open over just about the whole side. Resulting in making a hole in a lot of watertight compartments. If it had hit the iceberg heads on, it would have made a nice hit, but never would have gone down, since there would only have been 1 compartment with water in it. Making the left turn therefor wasn't a good decicion as it pointed the vurnerable side towards the iceberg, and putting the engines in reverse made it even worse! It just helped turning even faster so there was more side to offer to the iceberg.

 

The second thing which i disagree with is the statement that RC never was profitable in F2P. I don't know about now, i have been members for a long time now, but when i started runescape, i made most of my money with RC. The cost of essence back then was just less then double the cost of an air rune. So by the time you could make 2 air runes from 1 essence you had profit and by the time you could make 3 airs you could hire runners and still make profit!

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I did the math using methods similar to what Duke Freedom did back in '05.

 

For all the assumptions I made, I came out with a number.

Assumptions:

1.Respective XP over a threshold level in each category is only for certain alchable items (if you read his article, it'll make a bit more sense)

2.GP was drained at the same rate as Duke predicted

3.Every player before PVP updates contributed 200k to the economy.

 

The amount of GP I found was on the order of tens of trillions.

 

So, I made the assumption that last month there was 10 trillion GP in runescape.

In order to have 3% inflation over the past month:

4.Each PVP world was 3/8th full

5.Every person on a PVP world received drops of coins only

6.When a person died, they would net zero items (including pvp materials / food, potion, weapons, etc.)

7.Every hour everyone on a PVP world would get a drop

 

To cause 3% inflation, the drop had to be valued at 93k gp.

 

 

 

Pick whatever points you want on the wiki market watch, but I see the worst price increases were from September to October. The CPI appears to go from 141 to 162, which is 14.8%.

That makes the drop value go up to nearly 460k each: The conclusion I draw from this is that while PVP may be a factor of inflation, PVP causing inflation isn't the main source of the 14.8% CPI increase.

 

I will not say that PVP isn't the main source of the CPI increase though, because changes in demand and supply due to PVP can significantly increase CPI levels.

 

 

 

Also TS, the point you made that:

"Market equilibriums happen very fast these days in RuneScape, even with the 5% limit... Just check any update made to the game that has affected prices of an item, and how fast the prices stabilized, but check them before the 15th of June..."

That gives me a month of updates to find things that affected the price, where data is still available. In that time span, there were literally no updates to the game that would case a significant change to supply and demand.

 

However, I have three items in particular that older players will remember: lobsters, rune scimitars and amulets of ranging.

Lobsters - after RWT was removed, lobsters plummeted in price. I do not have historical GE graphs, but it took more than a week.

Rune Scimitars - After PVP worlds were introduced, it took more than a month for the price to stabilize: a couple weeks to climb and hit the price ceiling, and a couple weeks to come down below the price ceiling.

Amulet of Ranging - You can take a look at the graph yourself, but it took more than two months for the price to get anywhere close to "stable"

 

In no way are those time frames "fast".

 

 

 

 

TS, inflation does not hurt players because of how liquid the economy is now. The GP is truly neutral. At any point in time, I can swap out all my GPs for all items, and I can (virtually) swap out all my items for all GP. Unless you hold 2.1 billion GP in your bank (or some other ridiculous sum), the value of GP should not matter to you.

 

Inflation, as I keep repeating over and over again, does not hurt the players. Fixing PVP for the sole purpose of stopping inflation is pointless.

Fixing PVP in order to make it more like the Old PVP system without RWT, or to make it more balanced is a much more worthy goal.

 

Another way you can stop inflation, stop price manipulators, and all that jazz is to make all the prices in the economy fixed. Make every item have a specific price, and make it impossible to trade outside of that price. It "fixes" everything, but it also kills runescape.

99 dungeoneering achieved, thanks to everyone that celebrated with me!

 

♪♪ Don't interrupt me as I struggle to complete this thought
Have some respect for someone more forgetful than yourself ♪♪

♪♪ And I'm not done
And I won't be till my head falls off ♪♪

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Ok, couple of holes...

 

First, you asume way too much, and even Duke Freedom's methods were far from accurate...

 

Second, when using your numbers, you conviniently pick only one month of price numbers... When you calculate with yur numbers the overall from when PVP drops were changed to what it is now, we're looking at an increase of 40,8%...

As said, for 3% you need 93k, so we're now looking at 1.26 MILLION...

As said, we're looking at hyper inflation; "prices go up because people expect prices to go up" is pretty much a golden rule

 

Thirdly, this is an index of consumables and/or raw materials that ultimately end up being alched, which means these items are NOT as likely to rise as fast as items like Whips and Godswords...

 

 

Sadly, the graphs do not go further back then 180 days, but in regards to your examples;

 

Lobsters - more then a week <--- I find this pretty fast for an item that is in abundance as this

Rune Scimitars - several weeks <--- unfortunately I cannot watch that far back, but it is a tell-tale sign that its 30-day average plummets till it hits mid-june and then continues to go upwards again... Overal value gained from PVP has not changed (only the items got changed to pure GP) so the sudden turn around MUST be caused by the statues update...

Amulet of ranging - months <--- since when has a crappy item like that ever had any meaning when discussing the economy? You sound like Mod Fetzki when he quotes the graph of the Dragon Chainbody when seeing how inflation is happening or not... Obviously it went up straight after its introduction, but knowledge about the item and its overall crappyness compared to a Fury amulet caught up with it...

 

TS, inflation does not hurt players because of how liquid the economy is now. The GP is truly neutral. At any point in time, I can swap out all my GPs for all items, and I can (virtually) swap out all my items for all GP.

LOL? GP is neutral? It is neutral when you dont have any, for you...

I find this fricken hilarious coming form a guy that tells me I need to study macro economics... You claim that you can get rid of all your GP when you want to, but does this go for everyone? If everyone decides to BUY BUY BUY from the GE just to get rid of GP, doesnt the other half of the RS community get stuck with the GP? I explained this to you twice now, and once used the proverbial hot potato as an example...

 

Inflation, as I keep repeating over and over again, does not hurt the players.

Ok, I'm not touching this one anymore... You're wrong, very wrong, and I explained it to you in length and in detail... If you do not agree with me, fine, but stop making [cabbage] up...

 

Fixing PVP for the sole purpose of stopping inflation is pointless.

No it isnt, not if its the cause of it in the first place...

 

Fixing PVP in order to make it more like the Old PVP system without RWT, or to make it more balanced is a much more worthy goal.

Proposal 1 is your friend...

 

 

A final thought; I thought you understood a few things about economics, but I was wrong... You're wrong about nearly everything, and make wild assumptions and retrieve facts that can no longer be checked... If you want, I still have the Duke on an instant messenger, and have him take a look at this, he is one of few people I trust to settle this debate...

Former Leader of The Tal Shiar Alliance - An Original Tip.it Clan
Member of the Wilderness Guardians and Founder of the Silent Guardians
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Ok, couple of holes...

 

First, you asume way too much, and even Duke Freedom's methods were far from accurate...

 

Second, when using your numbers, you conviniently pick only one month of price numbers... When you calculate with yur numbers the overall from when PVP drops were changed to what it is now, we're looking at an increase of 40,8%...

As said, for 3% you need 93k, so we're now looking at 1.26 MILLION...

As said, we're looking at hyper inflation; "prices go up because people expect prices to go up" is pretty much a golden rule

I make assumptions because its impossible to do ANY calculation WITHOUT assumptions. Being the genius of economics, surely you of all people would know that.

 

It went up 40.8% over the course of 3 months. If you weren't so [developmentally delayed]ed, you might see that rate of inflation is 12% per month.

As far as your "golden rule" is concerned, I have never read about that in any work on economics. You're pulling crap out of your [wagon], and I'm calling you out on it.

 

Thirdly, this is an index of consumables and/or raw materials that ultimately end up being alched, which means these items are NOT as likely to rise as fast as items like Whips and Godswords...

So put together your own basket, tell me what it is, and then tell me what numbers you get out of it. If you have any knowledge of macroeconomics, this should be a trivial task for you.

 

Sadly, the graphs do not go further back then 180 days, but in regards to your examples;

...

Amulet of ranging - months <--- since when has a crappy item like that ever had any meaning when discussing the economy? You sound like Mod Fetzki when he quotes the graph of the Dragon Chainbody when seeing how inflation is happening or not... Obviously it went up straight after its introduction, but knowledge about the item and its overall crappyness compared to a Fury amulet caught up with it...

I gave you three examples of items that didn't reach equilibrium over night. I proved you wrong when you said:

"Market equilibriums happen very fast these days in RuneScape, even with the 5% limit... Just check any update made to the game that has affected prices of an item, and how fast the prices stabilized, but check them before the 15th of June..."

Two months for a game when you supposedly experience 12% inflation a month IS NOT FAST.

 

I find this fricken hilarious coming form a guy that tells me I need to study macro economics... You claim that you can get rid of all your GP when you want to, but does this go for everyone? If everyone decides to BUY BUY BUY from the GE just to get rid of GP, doesnt the other half of the RS community get stuck with the GP? I explained this to you twice now, and once used the proverbial hot potato as an example...

For your information, I have 54m GP in my bank. Last week I traded it all for uncut sapphires, two days ago I traded it all back. It would have gone faster if I was purchasing for medium price, but I was buying at the minimum.

If you're worried that the GP is losing its value too quickly, then don't keep any of it in your bank.

 

By the way, everyone can get rid of their GP simply by trading shops. It might take a while if you have 2B gp, but you can still get rid of it. It holds true for everyone.

 

A final thought; I thought you understood a few things about economics, but I was wrong... You're wrong about nearly everything, and make wild assumptions and retrieve facts that can no longer be checked... If you want, I still have the Duke on an instant messenger, and have him take a look at this, he is one of few people I trust to settle this debate...

So get him on IM. I'm not "making this stuff up" when it comes to economic principals, I'm interpreting and applying that which two hundred years of the most brilliant minds have produced.

I wish I could say the same for you.

99 dungeoneering achieved, thanks to everyone that celebrated with me!

 

♪♪ Don't interrupt me as I struggle to complete this thought
Have some respect for someone more forgetful than yourself ♪♪

♪♪ And I'm not done
And I won't be till my head falls off ♪♪

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