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3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion


bedman

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This topic is mainly meant to discuss the evolution of rares, spirit shields, and other bought out items. "Hot" items, or items showing some strange behaviour, can also be discussed. Basically, this is where you can discuss most merchanting related stuff.

This is NOT a topic to discuss "solutions" to rares or other weird suggestions. Face it, they've been here for ages, so let's just try to make the best out of it, and see if we can make some money out of them, or at least get some insight into their price changes.

 

I might add a list of stable junk items, and if I really can be bothered, a list of street prices of all rares and spirit shields. Help on this is always appreciated.

 

[hide= FAQ]

 

What is junk?

Junk is a term used for items that are unsellable in the GE. Before manipulation clans became big, junk were mainly items wrongly priced by Jagex in the GE. Maple longbow (u) for isntance, was priced at 144 gp each, and couldn't go lower (opposite of a price ceiling). Because the price couldn't go lower, it was "stable junk".

On the other hand, when a manipulation clan manipulates an item's price much above its "real value", this item will become junk once it is dumped by the clan. This junk is "unstable junk", because it quickly falls back to its original price.

 

Okay, I understand what junk is now. What is junk trading?

Junk trading occurs when people trade a highly wanted item (that is unbuyable in the GE) together with junk for cash. The cash that is paid, is the "street price". Someone could sell his purple partyhat for instance for 1.2B gp (= street price). This means he sells his partyhat for 450m (current GE price, which you can't evade because of the trade limit) PLUS 750M worth of junk. It is vital to understand that the "real estimated price" (what people would pay if there was no trade limit) is LOWER than the street price, because although junk is unsellable in the GE, it still holds some value. In my example, the real estimated price could be around 900m. This means that someone would be willing to pay 900m CASH for nothing but the partyhat. People are paying more (1.2B) because they get 750m worth of junk with it, which they hope to turn into cash (around 300m). In the end, the player ends up with a partyhat and 300m cash, so essentially, he has paid 900m for it.

 

Schematic

1.2B cash <=> partyhat + 750m junk

750m junk <=> 300m cash

***add up both of them and scratch the junk at both sides***

1.2B cash <=> partyhat + 300m cash

900m cash <=> partyhat

 

[/hide]

 

[hide= Original first post]

taken from RSOF (Sturm's thread):

 

Okay since today 3A has been changed to 10% and by looks of it Spirit shields may be 20%, Spectral has gone up 22m or so in 2 days.

 

 

Last couple of days Partyhats have been picking up aswell, except the higher ones such as white and blue.

 

 

How long do Spirit Shields and 3A have long left? will Partyhats % be changed, will merchanters dump there 3a/shields and move onto Partyhats and other cheaper goods?

 

 

Or maybe they will hog 3A even more for EVEN MORE profit?

 

 

What are your thoughts

 

 

 

So what does tip it think of this? I'm pretty interested to see what's going to happen.

 

EDIT: the original post is very old. In the mean time, 3a has crashed, spirit shields have crashed and picked up again. Partyhats have picked up again. 3rd age is recently picking up again, and whatnot. Also, this topic seems to have become the place for general merchanting talk, and I think that is a nice evolution. Seen a recent strange price rise and can't explain it? Having troubles deciding whether or not to dump your dragon bones? Well, hopefully we can help you, or at least have a nice discussion about it.

 

Let's recap: this topic is now used to discuss the trends on the "big" items (Rares, 3rd age, Spirit Shields, ...). Questions about other items will most probably be answered too.

[/hide]

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It's just armor/a shield/paper hat... oh well if people make money off the prices rising, it's not like it hasn't happened before :?

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It'll crash sooner or later.

 

 

 

I personally own third age mage hat. I bought it for 14m. I have NO plans to sell it, EVER. Seeing how it is the BEST magic hat in hat in the game ;)

Runescape player since 2005
Ego Sum Deus Quo Malum Caligo et Barathum


 

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The DOW is also up irl.

 

 

 

coincidence?!?!?!

 

 

 

 

 

:ohnoes:

 

Today:

 

-115.65? (-1.49%?) Mar 24 4:23pm ET

 

 

 

 

 

...

 

 

 

thats not what the news just said!

 

 

 

What news are you watching lol? Dow is crazy right now, don't put too much faith into it, although, this new trend of going up 300-500 points a day and only losing 100-200 the next sounds good. Hopefully we see more of it. if you want to track the dow you simply google it, and during market hours you can see live updates every second. Same goes for all others.

 

---

 

 

 

 

 

I think party hats are starting to rise because all the cheap noobs can afford them, 60mil ain't all that much these days, phats will steady out soon. I think 3rd age will hit their price soon, I think spirit shields have a long way to go, unlike 3rd age these items are very good. I sure as hell would buy them at their current price (well arcane and Elysian at least) I haven't followed them that closely(I rarely corp), I have no idea about the rarity, so it's hard to say really. Certain corp clans can't have that much, assuming 5k people have 500mil+ actively playing I would assume at least half of them would put some money into the current spirit shield prices.

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I think party hats are starting to rise because all the cheap noobs can afford them, 60mil ain't all that much these days,

 

Absolute [cabbage]. theres ALOT of players like me who have played since 01' and aren't even hitting the 10m mark.

 

 

 

OT: Spirit shields I can belive to rise alot due to the rareness in drop, the monster and the high requirements and extremly usefull abilities they hold. 3A isn't as strong as Torags but is rare ONLY because of Treasure Trails, hell I see 3A more then what I see of Animal Masks. and Party Hats? honestly dont deserve to be their price. Its a holiday item, a festivity, not a damn tool for players to use as barganing chips to increase their wealth.

Popoto.~<3

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Sold my spectral today . Made 50 m off it and gained 3rd age in the final trade value.

 

 

 

[hide=]specsale214056.png[/hide]

 

 

 

 

 

They WILL crash soon , well when one certain corp clan dumps them ;)

 

 

 

 

 

I hope so, I am saving for one atm so A crash would be nice =)

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I think a lot of players will reflux now that the prices are displaying more accurately.

 

 

 

When Jagex was locking prices, the street value price creation allowed for a newly integrated "Free Enterprise" that allows for price manipulation via junk trading.

 

 

 

With a relaxed reduction on price flux, prices of any non-new items will be the same as street price (or at least should get there). That's a huge development, and there's far less speculation involved in pricing.

 

 

 

Given that there is less speculation, there's less money to be had. Clans will stick to new-item hoarding to drive price manipulation.

 

 

 

That, or the opposite; clans could hold up and let prices go completely insanely out of control as they sit on items. It will be interesting to watch the market control/response habits of Jagex and merchants.

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Lets just say that the CB was never given the stomp ability. They would of crashed a few weeks after they started going up 10m a day. They aren't THAT useful. Ely and divine are only effective on things where you get hit for alot of damage often. Not that useful to remove 1-2 damage per hit :\

Runescape player since 2005
Ego Sum Deus Quo Malum Caligo et Barathum


 

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Lets just say that the CB was never given the stomp ability. They would of crashed a few weeks after they started going up 10m a day. They aren't THAT useful. Ely and divine are only effective on things where you get hit for alot of damage often. Not that useful to remove 1-2 damage per hit :\

 

Doesn't have to be alot (in seperate numbers). It would be good at whichever place your normal healing method doesn't keep up, and banking is a nuisance.

 

 

 

I would love to have an elysian for doing armadyl gwd, or tanking bandos.

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Meh, 0.3% rise on only purple p-hat, the rest are still dropping. Hardly anything to get excited about, I don't think they'll grow in price much, not when 3a items are much more sought after.

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Lets just say that the CB was never given the stomp ability. They would of crashed a few weeks after they started going up 10m a day. They aren't THAT useful. Ely and divine are only effective on things where you get hit for alot of damage often. Not that useful to remove 1-2 damage per hit :\

 

 

 

They wouldn't crash so soon. Spirit sheilds are the best sheilds in game, and you have to be a decent level or have high lsp just to get one. Spectral is super useful at arma, arcane is usefull at bursting lobs/DK maging. Elysian removes 25% of the damage 70% of the time, and divine removes 30% of the damage all the time. Hard to get really owned with that bonus.

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Meh, 0.3% rise on only purple p-hat, the rest are still dropping. Hardly anything to get excited about, I don't think they'll grow in price much, not when 3a items are much more sought after.

 

True, but before they were dropping maximally each trade. Now the drop seems to be stagnating. Which could imply that phats have hit rock bottom.

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3rd age will remain that super rare armor you hardly see and phats will go up one day as more phat owners are quitting and once they become an invesment everyone will want to put money into an item that will keep going up, then they sky rocket. im debating still whether or not to sell my 3rd age and get my complete phat set back but then i'd be an ordinary scaper .. with phat set. which sounds fun to me im considering it. :? and i would probably sell to a friend or TIFer instead of G.E. if they had the white 'n purple.

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I think party hats are starting to rise because all the cheap noobs can afford them, 60mil ain't all that much these days,

 

Absolute [cabbage]. theres ALOT of players like me who have played since 01' and aren't even hitting the 10m mark.

 

 

 

OT: Spirit shields I can belive to rise alot due to the rareness in drop, the monster and the high requirements and extremly usefull abilities they hold. 3A isn't as strong as Torags but is rare ONLY because of Treasure Trails, hell I see 3A more then what I see of Animal Masks. and Party Hats? honestly dont deserve to be their price. Its a holiday item, a festivity, not a damn tool for players to use as barganing chips to increase their wealth.

 

 

 

Wow, how can you play from '01 and not have more than 10m? I have played since mid '07 and have 30m ish +about 30m spent on stats, if not more.

 

 

 

OT: Why should rare things NOT be a bargaining chip? Look at the real world. Things which are rare, such as the 1913 buffalo head nickel is worth alot.

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Tormented Demons: Shard x6 Slice x5 Claws x9 Limbs x3
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