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Why Dragon Bone prices will keep increasing...


Deltaer

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If you are planning on training prayer in the next year or two, I recommend that you stock up on dragon bones soon. If you are quitting the game, and are looking to invest in something while you're gone.. and can't quite afford a rare, dragon bones might be something good to look into. Likewise, if you just want to merchant something, dragon bones are a good option too!

 

If you are expecting the bonecrusher to cause a decrease in price in dragon bones, think again. Why? Using a bonecrusher is highly inefficient and really slow in comparison to dragon bones on a guilded altar. Don't agree? Do the math yourself. E.g. I'd have to kill 5k ogres to get just 75k prayer xp... how much combat xp is that? About 1.2M -- which assuming I'm getting 50k xp per hour, would take 24 hours.. a whole day. Sorry, but not worth it, when I could do that on a guilded altar in what? Less than half an hour or something? Dragon and other high leveled bones will still remain the prayer leveling method of choice. At best, I see bonecrushers being used as an indirect, secondary method of training prayer (e.g. you are killing ogres for seeds and to raise your strength level, and you decide you might as well bring your bonecrusher to get some prayer xp).

 

With that said, I can pretty much GUARANTEE that dragon bone prices will keep increasing in the long term, unless a revolutionary update is made to prayer and its methods of training, which I just don't see happening.

 

Why is this? Simple economic analysis that anyone can do...

 

SUPPLY of dragon bones will stay CONSTANT. There are only a few places that you can kill greens and they are packed enough as it is... the threshold of bones available in the game is pretty much supplied to the market each day. We will assume that the number of bones coming from other dragons is negligible... it is still far too inefficient to use those dragons for bone collection than greens.

 

DEMAND of dragon bones will keep RISING. As more and more players get to the higher levels, and become richer, they will all aim for the coveted 138 combat...

 

As we see in the market now, demand is overtaking supply and causing the price to rise (look at the 30 day average price on the g/e graphs). Based on the constant supply and rising demand, this will undoubtedly continue.

 

 

Can anyone think of any other items that will keep increasing in the long term? Discontinued rares obviously, because their supply is always decreasing, but anything else?

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There will be a point where the price of dragon bones is too unreasonable you can say for players to pay, and that's when the price declines. What you've described has already been happening for years, and there hasn't been any major fluctuation from the 4-5k price range.

 

What you've not factored in however, is hoarders. There's more dragon bones in the market out there than you think.

 

So in short no, dragon bones will never continue to rise and rise and rise without falling. The price of the bones will always remain under the price of the better bones that can be offered, Ourg and Dagannoth.

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You make some good points, but at the core of your reasoning are the assumptions that the supply of bones won't increase, and that bones will continue to remain the best way to train Prayer. Neither are good bets, IMO.

 

I think it is very likely that Jagex will put new and better ways of training Prayer into the game, likely within the next 12 months. This will be done via a minigame, new ways of processing bones, new types of bones, or new sources of existing bones.

 

Why? Because they have shown in the past that they will do this when training skills starts to get too expensive or one-dimensional. And Prayer qualifies on both counts.

 

ETA: Even at today's prices, the opportunity cost break-even point between using dragon bones and big bones is over 500k/hr. If dragon bones get even more expensive, pretty soon players will switch to big bones, and those being F2P, more demand will lead to more supply.

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Why did prices go down recently then?

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Why did prices go down recently then?

Why do sharks go up and down in price? For the same reason: overall price increase/decrease/stability is rarely a perfect line. It is more of a line that can't hold it's booze.

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and there hasn't been any major fluctuation from the 4-5k price range, besides maybe a special case when the ancient curses bumped it up to the 6-7k area, but it settled down after that.

 

Actually, they were rising at around 2-3k before curses. (Because Jagex announced a prayer update.)

When curses came out, they rose to 4-5k and havent gone under 4.5k since if im not mistaken.

 

Prayer is ridiculous at the moment, and I dont see myself ever spending 150m from 95 to 99.

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and there hasn't been any major fluctuation from the 4-5k price range, besides maybe a special case when the ancient curses bumped it up to the 6-7k area, but it settled down after that.

 

Actually, they were rising at around 2-3k before curses. (Because Jagex announced a prayer update.)

When curses came out, they rose to 4-5k and havent gone under 4.5k since if im not mistaken.

 

Prayer is ridiculous at the moment, and I dont see myself ever spending 150m from 95 to 99.

 

My mistake then. Guess I've been so accustomed to these prices that I forget how cheap they used to be :cool:

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Why did prices go down recently then?
The economy has its ups and downs. The OP is looking long-term.

 

Yes, thank you. Keep in mind I'm not saying that there will never be price decreases. There will be, and short term price fluctuations are perfectly normal. It's how the market works. I just think 6 months and a year from now, dragon bone prices will be higher.

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and there hasn't been any major fluctuation from the 4-5k price range, besides maybe a special case when the ancient curses bumped it up to the 6-7k area, but it settled down after that.

 

Actually, they were rising at around 2-3k before curses. (Because Jagex announced a prayer update.)

When curses came out, they rose to 4-5k and havent gone under 4.5k since if im not mistaken.

 

Prayer is ridiculous at the moment, and I dont see myself ever spending 150m from 95 to 99.

 

My mistake then. Guess I've been so accustomed to these prices that I forget how cheap they used to be :cool:

 

I remember when you could sell big bones on w2 for a few 100 each if you were lucky! xD

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I thought about this myself. I believe bone prices will continue to rise, but not dramatically. I kind of doubt Jagex will put any major prayer changes by the end of 2010. Most of the content has already been planned, and none of it includes changes to prayer.

 

Your conclusion also assumes that the number of people getting higher levels is continually increasing. That's not necessarily true, as RS's user base growth has been (and continues) to slow.

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This post just described the price history of yew/mage logs, D bones, Mith/Addy/Rune bars/ores, and basically every raw material in rs. In the long rune, it's honestly inevitable that raw materials will rise. However, they will not rise at the speed of discontinued or other things simply because people refuse to pay the price now due to low expectations. (Sharks are a small exception due to the release of Saradomin brews, Monks, Rocktails, and Cavefishs over the years)

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This post just described the price history of yew/mage logs, D bones, Mith/Addy/Rune bars/ores, and basically every raw material in rs. In the long rune, it's honestly inevitable that raw materials will rise. However, they will not rise at the speed of discontinued or other things simply because people refuse to pay the price now due to low expectations. (Sharks are a small exception due to the release of Saradomin brews, Monks, Rocktails, and Cavefishs over the years)

 

Other resources haven't risen as much as bones. I'd expect bones still to be in the 2k-3k range if it weren't for the Curse prayerbook.

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Bonecrusher will not revolutionalise prayer training, it will just add marginal prayer XP for some players which will in turn slightly lessen the demand for any types of bones, but not enough to be a gamebreaker.

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I agree with infamous, there are more dragon bones out there than you think. I predict once it reaches a certain price, some hoarders will dump the bones and others will follow suit. It will eventually snowball to a panic.

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The assumption that the supply will stay the same is the flaw in your argument. New methods of training prayer could come out, but what I also see is new worlds being introduced. This is something which is needed as many popular bosses and monsters are much too crowded, it would help combat inflation of items if more were coming into the game as well.

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If dragon bones keep going up we are nearing the limit when it is worth it to take the time to bank your dragon bones from metal dragons (granted, some already do this at the new metal dragon spots)?

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The assumption that the supply will stay the same is the flaw in your argument. New methods of training prayer could come out, but what I also see is new worlds being introduced. This is something which is needed as many popular bosses and monsters are much too crowded, it would help combat inflation of items if more were coming into the game as well.

 

No, they don't need more world, they need more cotent. There needs to be more training places for dragons and more equal-tier bosses. That would take much less time and much less money.

Add another 150 servers? or just add another two to three dragon spawn?

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Your argument is flawed is a lot of ways. The demand may not keep rising. As the price gets higher and higher, people will want to train less and less. Couple that with many people reaching their 'goal' level, there will be a peak and then a fall. The supply could also increase due to new worlds or locations. The prices may continue rising in the short term, but you can in now way guarantee me that they will rise.

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Please explain me how you get 2.4M prayer xp an hour.

 

Besides that, you are somewhat right, as long as:

a) People keep playing, and more and more people reach 99 melees

B) Dragon bone supply stays constant (no updates that change this, which is unlikely). (copy Qeltar's response here).

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I agree with infamous, there are more dragon bones out there than you think. I predict once it reaches a certain price, some hoarders will dump the bones and others will follow suit. It will eventually snowball to a panic.

 

1) Wait for hoarders to panic

2) Buy in the middle of the panic when the price is near its lowest

3) ????

4) PROFIT!

 

Its like you copied those 4 points off the temple of senntisten update thread when it was released.

 

It was assumed dragon bones would plumet when they got to like 4.7k or whatever each.

It kept rising. :P

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You make some good points, but I think it's fair to assume that Jagex will eventually introduce an alternative, and most likely better/faster, way of training prayer, just as they did with a lot of other skills. Or they could make it easier to obtain the bones. Untill then I can't see them crashing anytime soon.

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Umm... why do people keep coming up with alternative updates, more servers, or more spawn spots to counter my argument? It's been 9 years and prayer has pretty much always stayed static, and for that reason I don't buy the alternative methods through new updates idea at all.. not to mention the anger from players if dragon bones were just phased out because some new update completely substituted their use.. Jagex would not be that stupid and they have always been careful to avoid updates that completely make another item's use obsolete..

 

If an alternative is actually introduced, and it does rival dragon bones, then their purpose (to lower the cost) would be defeated, as its cost would also reflect the high costs of dragon bones. i.e. there will not be a cheaper method of leveling prayer, as the price of prayer items is a function of marginal utility of xp and speed.. the cost of all bones are interrelated for this reason.

 

And It seems like people are arguing against what I'm saying just for the sake of arguing.. Yes, my analysis may be simplified but that is the whole point of it. I understand there are other factors at play, but I think their effects are a minimal, and I don't think dragon bones will ever be phased out (like some people are suggesting).

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Umm... why do people keep coming up with alternative updates, more servers, or more spawn spots to counter my argument?

Because you're making claims about what prices will do over the long run, and that's what happens over the long run: things change. And in particular, areas of the game that are unbalanced, too expensive or dysfunctional get fixed.

 

All it takes is one update to throw all of your claims out the window. Such as the Living Rock Caverns and what they did to gold ore.

 

You also seem to be ignoring the fact that when prices get too high, demand drops and supply increases.

 

It is simply not feasible the dragon bone prices will continue to just rise indefinitely, and it's far from a sure investment by any means.

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