Why Dragon Bone prices will keep increasing...

[lordkafei]

If you are planning on training prayer in the next year or two, I recommend that you stock up on dragon bones soon. If you are quitting the game, and are looking to invest in something while you're gone.. and can't quite afford a rare, dragon bones might be something good to look into. Likewise, if you just want to merchant something, dragon bones are a good option too!

 

 

I might merch these, but I would never ever consider these as a long term investment. You never know when Jagex will pull something out that will change the game.

 

This goes for any consumable item, BTW, not just bones.

[sees_all1]

In the long run we're all dead.

 

I'd invest in limpwurt roots before I'd invest in bones.

[Deltaer]

Umm... why do people keep coming up with alternative updates, more servers, or more spawn spots to counter my argument?

Because you're making claims about what prices will do over the long run, and that's what happens over the long run: things change. And in particular, areas of the game that are unbalanced, too expensive or dysfunctional get fixed.

 

All it takes is one update to throw all of your claims out the window. Such as the Living Rock Caverns and what they did to gold ore.

 

You also seem to be ignoring the fact that when prices get too high, demand drops and supply increases.

 

It is simply not feasible the dragon bone prices will continue to just rise indefinitely, and it's far from a sure investment by any means.

 

I'm aware of those factors, but like I said, I don't see a drastic change to the prayer skill. It's been static for years.

 

I also said that it is dependent on updates obviously... So don't think I'm ignoring that... but for the reason above, I would feel comfortable buying up bones if I were quitting for a year.. more than a year might be pushing it, but I don't see any big changes to prayer coming in the next year or two... as long as there are no updates that affect prayer, dragon bone prices will rise.

[qeltar]

I'm aware of those factors, but like I said, I don't see a drastic change to the prayer skill. It's been static for years.

But that's a fallacy. And that's why your advice is dangerous.

[Tact]

DEMAND of dragon bones will keep RISING. As more and more players get to the higher levels, and become richer, they will all aim for the coveted 138 combat...

How can you be certain that Runescape will continue to grow in playership? I'm under the impression that the number of new members has stagnated.

[Troacctid]

Dragon bones will have to fall eventually because once they get too high, people start using substitutes. If dragon bones are 30k each and babydragon bones are 2k each, which are you going to train with? That's an extreme case, but the fact is that as the price difference increases, demand will change, and dragon bones will find an equilibrium with or without an update to prayer.

[Den]

Prayer is simply too valuable a skill to be cheap to train.

 

Agreed.

 

And about prayer being static for 9 years. Thats as far from the truth as you can get. :P

 

Prayer is released.

People bury bones for exp.

Ectofuntus is released.

People move on to that and grind bones/offer them for exp.

Construction is released.

Gilded alters are made.

People move on to offering bones to the alter.

 

Yeah, it hasnt been changed since construction, but thats hardly 9 years.

[Deltaer]

Prayer is simply too valuable a skill to be cheap to train.

 

Agreed.

 

And about prayer being static for 9 years. Thats as far from the truth as you can get. :P

 

Prayer is released.

People bury bones for exp.

Ectofuntus is released.

People move on to that and grind bones/offer them for exp.

Construction is released.

Gilded alters are made.

People move on to offering bones to the alter.

 

Yeah, it hasnt been changed since construction, but thats hardly 9 years.

 

And at the core of all those updates are still reliance on bones to level..

 

Dragon bones will have to fall eventually because once they get too high, people start using substitutes. If dragon bones are 30k each and babydragon bones are 2k each, which are you going to train with? That's an extreme case, but the fact is that as the price difference increases, demand will change, and dragon bones will find an equilibrium with or without an update to prayer.

 

That's never going to happen because the price of dragon and babydragon bones are tied closely together (as they are close to being perfect substitutes, aside from the time element)... and for the reason you just explained.. they will be highly proportional to one another in equilibrium.

[Den]

And at the core of all those updates are still reliance on bones to level..

 

So since you need bones, the skill hasnt been changed since it was released...?

 

Since fishing requires you to catch fish, I guess that hasnt been changed since release either?

If you follow that logic, no skill has ever changed since release.

[Assume Nothing]

I remember when you could sell big bones on w2 for a few 100 each if you were lucky! xD

 

Ah, but you have to remember, the buying power of Gp has changed since the time it cost 2k/bone. When making 1m/h were 'insane' and double nats were 'ossum'

[3PointMan]

This thread is exactly why I bought 95 prayer now, and why I plan on buying 99 asap.

[Aiel]

This thread is exactly why I bought 95 prayer now, and why I plan on buying 99 asap.

because its poorly thought out and possibly incorrect?

[i_D_r]

Sorry if I missed it, but, besides demand, more people will supply more (or even gather themselves to use) to the market the more expensive they get. Hell, it's definitely on par with high level income to camp them even at current prices.

 

I.E. If dragon bones were 10k each, I'd be at green dragons in a heart beat.

 

I guess the problem with that, though, is that resources are very limited and the best spots (green dragons) are already full.

 

I suppose if demand continues to rise, supply is going to be bottlenecked by lack of resources.

 

 

 

Also, dragon bones are consumables in our sense, but really they're not. Whatever amounts you use, you won't ever need again. In other words, demand will be alleviated once a player is done with it.

[Jaded]

It's been 9 years and prayer has pretty much always stayed static, and for that reason I don't buy the alternative methods through new updates idea at all.. not to mention the anger from players if dragon bones were just phased out because some new update completely substituted their use.. Jagex would not be that stupid and they have always been careful to avoid updates that completely make another item's use obsolete..

 

1) Prayer has been static for SO LONG that it is due for an update. Most other skills have evolved more efficient ways to train (eg. ivy, living rock caverns, barbarian fishing).

 

2) D Bones don't have to be phased out in order to affect prices. Dragons could drop more bones on death and that would flood the market (there's a whole skeleton FFS!)

 

3) A new FREE method could come out, such as a prayer D&D. If you think angry d bone collectors outweigh the players that will be glad for a cheaper way to train pray, think again. Penguin hide & seek is a great way to save on dbones already.

 

4) Bots...chaos tunnels are swarming with them.

 

5) Really? Jagex never makes items obsolete through updates? When's the last time you saw a dragon square shield in use? Jagex constantly updates their items with bigger and better items...it's an arms race. And people would pay for an advantage in prayer leveling.

 

In fact, a new prayer bone is just what we need to fix the economy. I have been trying to buy higher bones for altar BUT THEY DON'T BUY. Many people have the money for 99 pray, what we lack is time. If Jagex offers a method that will drain money out of the game while speeding up my levelling, I'll sell my p hats for it.

[Assume Nothing]

This thread is exactly why I bought 95 prayer now, and why I plan on buying 99 asap.

because its poorly thought out and possibly incorrect?

Yes.

[doodlebug86]

On thing that I haven't seen in the thread is the impact of D bones on the economy. We constantly see threads on runaway inflation, crazy prices on items, how much will they rise, etc. D Bones offer Jagex one of the best ways of removing cash from the game. As players get better skills, the accrue cash that can be dumped into prayer. By removing cash from the game, inflation is tamed somewhat - basic economics.

 

Jagex has always tried to remove cash in some form or fashion in the skills, Construction was hailed as a huge money sink. Why did everyone train summoning or herblore on double exp weekend - to save cash cause they are money sinks. Prayer remains one of the constant and best methods of removing significant amounts of cash from the game.

 

So while I disagree with the OP's original premise, I do believe that D bones will remain at a high price, and that Jagex is actually happy and will not encourage new methods of making it cheap.

[i_D_r]

On thing that I haven't seen in the thread is the impact of D bones on the economy. We constantly see threads on runaway inflation, crazy prices on items, how much will they rise, etc. D Bones offer Jagex one of the best ways of removing cash from the game. As players get better skills, the accrue cash that can be dumped into prayer. By removing cash from the game, inflation is tamed somewhat - basic economics.

 

Jagex has always tried to remove cash in some form or fashion in the skills, Construction was hailed as a huge money sink. Why did everyone train summoning or herblore on double exp weekend - to save cash cause they are money sinks. Prayer remains one of the constant and best methods of removing significant amounts of cash from the game.

 

So while I disagree with the OP's original premise, I do believe that D bones will remain at a high price, and that Jagex is actually happy and will not encourage new methods of making it cheap.

 

Cash isn't removed from the game when you buy things such as D bones; wealth is simply redistributed to another player.

[Nifflin]

The assumption that the supply will stay the same is the flaw in your argument. New methods of training prayer could come out, but what I also see is new worlds being introduced. This is something which is needed as many popular bosses and monsters are much too crowded, it would help combat inflation of items if more were coming into the game as well.

 

No, they don't need more world, they need more cotent. There needs to be more training places for dragons and more equal-tier bosses. That would take much less time and much less money.

Add another 150 servers? or just add another two to three dragon spawn?

 

This would solve the dragon bone problem but the fact remains that many other activities are becoming crowded as well. Perhaps you haven't been to the God Wars dungeon in a while but its gotten to the point where there is even competition on soloing worlds. The problem with dragon bones it that there are not enough spawns. Adding more spots would help solve this problem in the short term, but more worlds would solve more problems in the long term.

 

OT: The only reason they are so high is because of the addition of curses. Once more skills are remade and higher levels are put to a use (*cough* smithing *cough*) then the demand for these "elite" levels will be defused over a larger area. Herblore and prayer are only the beginning, if two skills a year are remade then the problem of prayer being so expensive will soon be alleviated.

[yuriqiu]

D bones will only rise so much to the point where training with D bones is no longer the most effective method. If you ask me that isn't so far away.

 

D bones - 24.5gp/xp

Dagganoth - 30.6gp/xp

Ourg - 35.3gp/xp

 

GP/xp on bones is getting very close, and seeing as using Ourg bones is nearly 2x the xp of D bones, perhaps even now D bones are no longer the best way to train Prayer.

 

Training from 70-99 Prayer now costs:

258.7m D bones

290.2m Fayrg Bones

311.6m Raurg bones

376.6m Dagganoth

434.1m Ourg

 

So now the question is, are buying D bones even worth it, or will the Zorge activities actually become more active now (Along with Dks and Bandos Solos, P.S. If you are a bandos/dks hunter, now might be a good time to consider a yak or even start bringing imp boxes with you on trips)

[Bladewing]

D bones will only rise so much to the point where training with D bones is no longer the most effective method. If you ask me that isn't so far away.

 

D bones - 24.5gp/xp

Dagganoth - 30.6gp/xp

Ourg - 35.3gp/xp

 

GP/xp on bones is getting very close, and seeing as using Ourg bones is nearly 2x the xp of D bones, perhaps even now D bones are no longer the best way to train Prayer. I daresay from lvl 70-99 prayer, Ourg bones will be twice as fast with only 10gp/xp extra spent.

 

10gp per xp more i think your right Ourg bones just might be more eficient.

1400 bones/h with pack yak at your own house.

 

10 hours of dragon bones: 3,528k xp, -73,626k gp

5.76 hours of dagannoth bones: 3,528k xp, -104,832k gp

5.14 hours of ourg bones: 3,528k xp, -124,560k gp

 

If you make 7.4m/h, dagannoth bones become most efficient.

If you make 31.8m/h, ourg bones become most efficient.

[Obtaurian]

Glad I just bought 95 prayer. B)

[MerchantInTheDark]

Very good analysis, I agree wholeheartedly. The people using the bonecrusher are most likely just getting the xp for the hell of it, serious trainers will buy and use an altar - thus demand will stay the same while supply drops.

[bedman]

Very good analysis, I agree wholeheartedly. The people using the bonecrusher are most likely just getting the xp for the hell of it, serious trainers will buy and use an altar - thus demand will stay the same while supply drops.

As a merchant I would have thought you would know what supply and demand means. Supply will stay the same, how is it going to drop? If anything, it's growing slightly because of people obtaining yaks, and using it to bank their bones from metal dragons etc. 2ndly, in order for bones to rise, demand should rise, not stay the same.

[yuriqiu]

Very good analysis, I agree wholeheartedly. The people using the bonecrusher are most likely just getting the xp for the hell of it, serious trainers will buy and use an altar - thus demand will stay the same while supply drops.

As a merchant I would have thought you would know what supply and demand means. Supply will stay the same, how is it going to drop? If anything, it's growing slightly because of people obtaining yaks, and using it to bank their bones from metal dragons etc. 2ndly, in order for bones to rise, demand should rise, not stay the same.

I think he meant supply will drop because there are idiots who purchased bonecrusher and will use them on dragons. Demand will only rise though as more and more people become rich and goes after 95/99 prayer.

[I_am_Geed]

People who thought the Bonecrusher would have an effect on Dragon Bones prices are silly.

:thumbup: