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Death Rune Crash


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#41
RESULTS
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not sure, just thought if deaths become less popular and less profitable, people may start crafting nats again in higher numbers.

Although looking at it, what was said above makes far too much sense to not believe.

#42
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not sure, just thought if deaths become less popular and less profitable, people may start crafting nats again in higher numbers.

Although looking at it, what was said above makes far too much sense to not believe.


That would make Natures go down then if more people start crafting them again.

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#43
ilovecuttingyews
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While all of those previous reasons could be true, they don't really explain the actual crash that many items had on Jan 6/7. Since the anouncement of the free trade vote, price have slowly gone down (most crashes were either manipulated items or due to Nex, not FT) but nothing too bad. But it seems that something on Jan 6 caused the crash of plenty of raw goods. Take a look at the graphs for natures, deaths, gold ore, yews, teak planks, and various other 'basic level goods'. They show that something happened Jan 6th, but what? Was that the day that the vote hit 1M votes? Because that was seen by most players as the point at which the return of FT was as good as confirmed.

#44
Wachtwoord
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Remember the massive inflation when pvp/bh statues were released? They bring tons of pure gp into the game and when new wild comes all this gp is gonna stop entering the game. Meaning gp is worth more relative to items. In other words items go down, gp is worth more. So the smart people are liquidating there banks and building a cash stack while theres still [cabbage]loads of gp entering the game through pvp. Idk if this sounds confusing to you guys I did economics in college lol

If the way the wild works is changed, it doesn't mean all the money gained from it is gone all of a sudden. The money is still there, so after a while, people will buy stuff again. changing the wildy may stop the inflation, but it won't counter it.

When everything's been said and done, more has been said than done.

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#45
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Remember the massive inflation when pvp/bh statues were released? They bring tons of pure gp into the game and when new wild comes all this gp is gonna stop entering the game. Meaning gp is worth more relative to items. In other words items go down, gp is worth more. So the smart people are liquidating there banks and building a cash stack while theres still [cabbage]loads of gp entering the game through pvp. Idk if this sounds confusing to you guys I did economics in college lol

If the way the wild works is changed, it doesn't mean all the money gained from it is gone all of a sudden. The money is still there, so after a while, people will buy stuff again. changing the wildy may stop the inflation, but it won't counter it.

There will come more and more players.. And typically the richer players stop (which is the biggest money sink).. So slowly the average coins/person will reduce.

First they came to fishing
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't fishing

Then they came to the yews
and I didn't speak out because I didn't cut yews

Then they came for the ores
and I didn't speak out because I didn't collect ores

Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.


#46
bedman
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So many [cabbage] being told here.

Inflation/deflation/equilibrum is a dynamic process. Money continuously goes in (alching, pvp statuettes, coin drops), money continuously goes out (construction, reparing chaotics/barrows/zaros, shops, ...). This means the arguement "the money is still there" is not valid. It might take a while to reach the new equilibrum but in the long run, there WILL be an equilibrum with LESS money in game (after the removal of pvp statuettes).

If you actually looked at the graph of some items, you might have noticed that inflation has already ceased more or less. Actually, depending on how and which items you interpret, we can even talk about deflation. I think dungeoneering plays a role here, because more and more people are getting chaotics and recharging it.

Nevertheless, the removal of pvp statuettes will surely switch the equilibrum to deflation (if we weren't already there). Just look back at what happened when they were introduced. Look at the prices we had back then. Look at what they've become. In the long run, we should reach those prices again (in general of course, new updates etc. affected quite a few item's prices). Actually, with dungeoneering items, and now the new Zaros armours, it might be even "worse".

Pulli: the richest players quit. Hmm, you mean the ones that constantly use chaotic and torva? The ones that drain millions of gp out of the economy? The ones that buy phats when they quit? I can state exactly the opposite (richest player out of the game means more inflation), so I wouldn't be too quick to draw conclusions there. Also, who told you the richest players quit the most?

#47
pulli23
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So many [cabbage] being told here.

Inflation/deflation/equilibrum is a dynamic process. Money continuously goes in (alching, pvp statuettes, coin drops), money continuously goes out (construction, reparing chaotics/barrows/zaros, shops, ...). This means the arguement "the money is still there" is not valid. It might take a while to reach the new equilibrum but in the long run, there WILL be an equilibrum with LESS money in game (after the removal of pvp statuettes).

If you actually looked at the graph of some items, you might have noticed that inflation has already ceased more or less. Actually, depending on how and which items you interpret, we can even talk about deflation. I think dungeoneering plays a role here, because more and more people are getting chaotics and recharging it.

Nevertheless, the removal of pvp statuettes will surely switch the equilibrum to deflation (if we weren't already there). Just look back at what happened when they were introduced. Look at the prices we had back then. Look at what they've become. In the long run, we should reach those prices again (in general of course, new updates etc. affected quite a few item's prices). Actually, with dungeoneering items, and now the new Zaros armours, it might be even "worse".

Pulli: the richest players quit. Hmm, you mean the ones that constantly use chaotic and torva? The ones that drain millions of gp out of the economy? The ones that buy phats when they quit? I can state exactly the opposite (richest player out of the game means more inflation), so I wouldn't be too quick to draw conclusions there. Also, who told you the richest players quit the most?

Uhm on average the amount of coins on players who quit is bigger than on those who enter...

And richest I mean of course the ones above average wealth. (so more than 10m).

First they came to fishing
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't fishing

Then they came to the yews
and I didn't speak out because I didn't cut yews

Then they came for the ores
and I didn't speak out because I didn't collect ores

Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.


#48
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Pretty much everything is falling in price.

Yeah, i'm wondering why this is really.

It has to do with the Free Trade and Old Wildy returning, that is for sure. People have been panic selling quite a few items and even though the worst crashes many items are still falling. I don't know exactly why so many items are falling this much, but I think that it all have to do with that people think that RS will become quite much of a new game when Free Trade and the Old Wildy comes back. Especially when Free Trade returns the market will change. None really knows how much and in what way, so people sell off their items to get as much gp as possible.
Why death runes have suddenly dropped this much I don't know, but perhaps rcing deaths have become less popular because of some reason? What that would be I don't know though.

Which is so weird..
Don't everybody remember that the prices actaully crashed when free trade was removed?

Returning should actually strengthen the prices of raws.

Part of it is because people didn't know how trade would work after the removal of free trade.

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#49
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Yep, and most importantly, with free trade comes "no more statuettes", and THAT's the reason prices are crashing.

#50
ilovecuttingyews
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Which is so weird..
Don't everybody remember that the prices actaully crashed when free trade was removed?
Returning should actually strengthen the prices of raws.

Part of it is because people didn't know how trade would work after the removal of free trade.

Also, the goldfarmers sold their massive stocks of items all at the same time in order to liquidate their banks before the trade limit was enforced. I remember seeing gold farmers selling gold for $1/M (was normally 4-5 back then) in a panic sell-off because at the time, everyone assumed it would mean the death of RWT. Oh, how wrong we were....

#51
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Which is so weird..
Don't everybody remember that the prices actaully crashed when free trade was removed?
Returning should actually strengthen the prices of raws.

Part of it is because people didn't know how trade would work after the removal of free trade.

Also, the goldfarmers sold their massive stocks of items all at the same time in order to liquidate their banks before the trade limit was enforced. I remember seeing gold farmers selling gold for $1/M (was normally 4-5 back then) in a panic sell-off because at the time, everyone assumed it would mean the death of RWT. Oh, how wrong we were....

Still the prices kept lowering for the next year or 2 (untill statues in fact)..

First they came to fishing
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't fishing

Then they came to the yews
and I didn't speak out because I didn't cut yews

Then they came for the ores
and I didn't speak out because I didn't collect ores

Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.


#52
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Do you all think death runes will rebound to their full price?

#53
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Do you all think death runes will rebound to they're full price?

To their full price of 300 gp?
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#54
MightyMuddy
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Do you all think death runes will rebound to they're full price?

To their full price of 300 gp?

Sorry original price of 372gp mid.

#55
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Do you all think death runes will rebound to they're full price?

To their full price of 300 gp?

Sorry original price of 372gp mid.


I just looked, and I didn't realise that death runes dipped under 300 gp as of now, but they are up 1 gp though, so maybe this "crash" is over?
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#56
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Do you all think death runes will rebound to they're full price?

To their full price of 300 gp?

Sorry original price of 372gp mid.


I just looked, and I didn't realise that death runes dipped under 300 gp as of now, but they are up 1 gp though, so maybe this "crash" is over?


This is all speculation of course but they'll probably rebound to 330gp or so in the short term at least.
Not sure when they'll recover their original price though, the rise is bound to slow down after a while. All in all, it might take over a year. [/speculation]
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#57
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They've bought real slowly at max all day, similar to cannonballs.


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#58
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+15gp, good for me I just got 150k of em :)

#59
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Any estimates on a stable price post-Feb 1?

#60
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300 ea perhaps. Maybe upwards to 350 ea.

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