Dice game

[runescape102]

Dicing is not a scam. ;) 4 days of work

 

Part 5 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b24KYBaqZC8

 

Part 4 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQyoOPEx7o8

 

Part 3 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj72Uh2w51s

 

Part 2- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXRgO5xS7s8

 

Part 1- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQwKdVZ9hNE

 

 

 

 

Total as of February 20, 2011:

 

Total as of February 19, 2011 (thanks Vann for picture):

[Myu]

It's a legal scam. The odds are in your favour. With a capital, there's nothing to lose for the host. It's just about finding players stupid enough to gamble when they have the odds against them. Even if you get lucky, it's still a bad move to play even once.

[Golvellius]

Grats on turning runescape into a casino.

House should pay out 95% though before I would bet. :angry:

[kamil1210]

Dice? Can u explain how it work?

[Frede173]

...Interesting.

[mackenzie14]

40% chance of victory, not good. You have bigger chance playing IRL roulette.

[Krampell]

Only the stupid ones play it, so it's better to host then play.

[Wessan]

What are the dice from?

[Bladewing]

faruq's shop in alkharid

[Wessan]

So they trade after you roll? Or do you just tell them what you got on the roll?

[Giga]

What are the odds if I went and bet 500m that person would actually honor it if I won?

[Wessan]

Not much but I just tried it out for about 30mins and made about 700k. I dont have much cash so thats actually double my money when i started. I am offering one free try for 100k. I do pay out. If any rich Tip.It-ers would like to come play, I will be glad to host on world 2 atm.

[mackenzie14]

What are the odds if I went and bet 500m that person would actually honor it if I won?

Dice rolls random number from 1-100.

He pays winner 2x if rolled number is between 60-100 and he keeps the money when 1-59.

So you have 40 numbers to win with and he has 60 numbers to win qwith. So you have 40% chance to win and he has 60% chance to win.

 

This means that in long run he always makes profit. You have only one chance to win money - hit and run tehnique. Do not stay there and try to win your money back if you lose.

[Bladewing]

do not play at all is the logical conclusion lmfao

[Leyenda]

What if someone keeps on doubling their bet until they win?

[BeNiceOk]

What if someone keeps on doubling their bet until they win?

 

It doesn't matter if you play the game once or 1000 times, the winning ratio is always going to be (4/10). You might get a luck streak and make some money, but the longer you play, the closer your going to get to that 40% win average. Aside from a lucky roll, there is no way to win money playing the game for a long period of time.

 

IF you are going to play, It would be advised to bet small for 3 games, say in 1M amounts. Chances are out of 3 rounds, you are going to win at least 1 of 3, unless your very unlucky. If you lose 2 of 3, you only lose 1M, but if you win 2 of 3 you gain 1M. Any more than 3 rounds and you start putting your average to the 40% mark and you WONT make money. So if you plan to do it, do it in a small amounts and don't keep pushing your luck.

[Bladewing]

What if someone keeps on doubling their bet until they win?

 

It doesn't matter if you play the game once or 1000 times, the winning ratio is always going to be (4/10). You might get a luck streak and make some money, but the longer you play, the closer your going to get to that 40% win average. Aside from a lucky roll, there is no way to win money playing the game for a long period of time.

if you lost 999 games in a row, doubling your bet each time, but won the 1000th game, you would be ahead

[curtis95112]

What if someone keeps on doubling their bet until they win?

 

It doesn't matter if you play the game once or 1000 times, the winning ratio is always going to be (4/10). You might get a luck streak and make some money, but the longer you play, the closer your going to get to that 40% win average. Aside from a lucky roll, there is no way to win money playing the game for a long period of time.

if you lost 999 games in a row, doubling your bet each time, but won the 1000th game, you would be ahead

You would. But since both you and the host has a finite amount of money, you will lose money in the long run.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

Wikipedia has an okay article on it.

[BeNiceOk]

What if someone keeps on doubling their bet until they win?

 

It doesn't matter if you play the game once or 1000 times, the winning ratio is always going to be (4/10). You might get a luck streak and make some money, but the longer you play, the closer your going to get to that 40% win average. Aside from a lucky roll, there is no way to win money playing the game for a long period of time.

if you lost 999 games in a row, doubling your bet each time, but won the 1000th game, you would be ahead

 

Yes, but the last roll is independent of all the previous rolls. Doubling your roll every time wont give you a better chance to win once you risk 50% of your pot at the end of your doubling bets. If you lose, you still lose 50% of your 4/10 winnings. That's not to say you WILL lose money, but the longer your play the more chances you roll 1-6 instead of 7-10. What would really determine if you make or lose money is your last 3 rolls when you risk 25%, 50%, and 100% of your pot.

 

If you risk 1 roll you have a 40% chance to win. If you roll 1000 times you will average out to 40% winnings. Therefore it would be safe to say while 1 or 1000 rolls would have the same average payout, a single (or few) roll would have a better factor of luck in not showing the average rolls. So while they are the same probability of winning or losing, a single roll can mask that probability due to the fact the average percent does not have enough time to even out. If you flip a coin once, its still a 50/50 chance to win, but you have a greater chance to stay ahead if you flip heads once and don't allow another attempt for tails to show.

 

Im even confusing myself :-? , but I hope you get what I mean? :blink:

[Hobgoblinpie]

Yes, but the last roll is independent of all the previous rolls. Doubling your roll every time wont give you a better chance to win once you risk 50% of your pot at the end of your doubling bets. If you lose, you still lose 50% of your 4/10 winnings. That's not to say you WILL lose money, but the longer your play the more chances you roll 1-6 instead of 7-10. What would really determine if you make or lose money is your last 3 rolls when you risk 25%, 50%, and 100% of your pot.

 

If you risk 1 roll you have a 40% chance to win. If you roll 1000 times you will average out to 40% winnings. Therefore it would be safe to say while 1 or 1000 rolls would have the same average payout, a single (or few) roll would have a better factor of luck in not showing the average rolls. So while they are the same probability of winning or losing, a single roll can mask that probability due to the fact the average percent does not have enough time to even out. If you flip a coin once, its still a 50/50 chance to win, but you have a greater chance to stay ahead if you flip heads once and don't allow another attempt for tails to show.

 

Im even confusing myself :-? , but I hope you get what I mean? :blink:

 

 

It's about sample size, really. For instance, I flip a coin once, and it lands on heads. Therefore, the ratio of heads to tails is 1:0. I flip it again, and it's heads, so it's now 2:0. A third time brings up tails, so it's now 2:1.

 

Obviously, there are two sides, and the likelihood of getting either is 50/50, but since I haven't allowed for a decent sample size in my analysis, on a technical basis, heads will come up more.

 

You can't guarantee winning money on any bet. Even at 99%, it's still a chance. Whilst you can make money on any bet you do, it's almost always going to be favoured against you, since the host will need to maintain losses and wins (wins b gamblers are losses for the hosts). 50/50 is the highest chance you'll get in any game (like boxing at maxed melee), and it's here that systems like Martingale can actually work on a realistic level. Even then, the ability to win is based on having an infinite supply of cash, since even though the chance is high, you're not guaranteed to ever win, and if you keep doubling up money, it can quickly accumulate to a ridiculous level (for instance, work out the amount of cash you'd have if your parents gave you pocket money which doubled every day, for a month, accumulating and starting from 1 cent or penny).

[Leyenda]

What if someone keeps on doubling their bet until they win?

 

It doesn't matter if you play the game once or 1000 times, the winning ratio is always going to be (4/10). You might get a luck streak and make some money, but the longer you play, the closer your going to get to that 40% win average. Aside from a lucky roll, there is no way to win money playing the game for a long period of time.

if you lost 999 games in a row, doubling your bet each time, but won the 1000th game, you would be ahead

 

Yes, but the last roll is independent of all the previous rolls. Doubling your roll every time wont give you a better chance to win once you risk 50% of your pot at the end of your doubling bets. If you lose, you still lose 50% of your 4/10 winnings. That's not to say you WILL lose money, but the longer your play the more chances you roll 1-6 instead of 7-10. What would really determine if you make or lose money is your last 3 rolls when you risk 25%, 50%, and 100% of your pot.

 

If you risk 1 roll you have a 40% chance to win. If you roll 1000 times you will average out to 40% winnings. Therefore it would be safe to say while 1 or 1000 rolls would have the same average payout, a single (or few) roll would have a better factor of luck in not showing the average rolls. So while they are the same probability of winning or losing, a single roll can mask that probability due to the fact the average percent does not have enough time to even out. If you flip a coin once, its still a 50/50 chance to win, but you have a greater chance to stay ahead if you flip heads once and don't allow another attempt for tails to show.

 

Im even confusing myself :-? , but I hope you get what I mean? :blink:

No, I meant keep on doubling until you win, then stop (which means take the money and leave)

 

And if you double 8 times and lose all 8 then you should probably just quit

[n64jive]

What if someone keeps on doubling their bet until they win?

 

It doesn't matter if you play the game once or 1000 times, the winning ratio is always going to be (4/10). You might get a luck streak and make some money, but the longer you play, the closer your going to get to that 40% win average. Aside from a lucky roll, there is no way to win money playing the game for a long period of time.

if you lost 999 games in a row, doubling your bet each time, but won the 1000th game, you would be ahead

 

Yes, but the last roll is independent of all the previous rolls. Doubling your roll every time wont give you a better chance to win once you risk 50% of your pot at the end of your doubling bets. If you lose, you still lose 50% of your 4/10 winnings. That's not to say you WILL lose money, but the longer your play the more chances you roll 1-6 instead of 7-10. What would really determine if you make or lose money is your last 3 rolls when you risk 25%, 50%, and 100% of your pot.

 

If you risk 1 roll you have a 40% chance to win. If you roll 1000 times you will average out to 40% winnings. Therefore it would be safe to say while 1 or 1000 rolls would have the same average payout, a single (or few) roll would have a better factor of luck in not showing the average rolls. So while they are the same probability of winning or losing, a single roll can mask that probability due to the fact the average percent does not have enough time to even out. If you flip a coin once, its still a 50/50 chance to win, but you have a greater chance to stay ahead if you flip heads once and don't allow another attempt for tails to show.

 

Im even confusing myself :-? , but I hope you get what I mean? :blink:

No, I meant keep on doubling until you win, then stop (which means take the money and leave)

 

And if you double 8 times and lose all 8 then you should probably just quit

 

 

So if you're starting bet is 1m, and you double til you win( 8 times max) you're going to risk 255m just to win 1m? Asks casino managers, the only way to win when gambling is to own the casino...

[Pinata]

Ok, you know how if you have a certain amount of weed, you can get charged for "intent to sell", whether or not you were going to sell it. I think Jagex should implement "intent to scam," for all of those hosting flower games, trust game, 2x ur money, dice game, etc. Whether or not that person was going to scam they still can get reported, that would discourage a lot of obvious scammers.

[Leyenda]

What if someone keeps on doubling their bet until they win?

 

It doesn't matter if you play the game once or 1000 times, the winning ratio is always going to be (4/10). You might get a luck streak and make some money, but the longer you play, the closer your going to get to that 40% win average. Aside from a lucky roll, there is no way to win money playing the game for a long period of time.

if you lost 999 games in a row, doubling your bet each time, but won the 1000th game, you would be ahead

 

Yes, but the last roll is independent of all the previous rolls. Doubling your roll every time wont give you a better chance to win once you risk 50% of your pot at the end of your doubling bets. If you lose, you still lose 50% of your 4/10 winnings. That's not to say you WILL lose money, but the longer your play the more chances you roll 1-6 instead of 7-10. What would really determine if you make or lose money is your last 3 rolls when you risk 25%, 50%, and 100% of your pot.

 

If you risk 1 roll you have a 40% chance to win. If you roll 1000 times you will average out to 40% winnings. Therefore it would be safe to say while 1 or 1000 rolls would have the same average payout, a single (or few) roll would have a better factor of luck in not showing the average rolls. So while they are the same probability of winning or losing, a single roll can mask that probability due to the fact the average percent does not have enough time to even out. If you flip a coin once, its still a 50/50 chance to win, but you have a greater chance to stay ahead if you flip heads once and don't allow another attempt for tails to show.

 

Im even confusing myself :-? , but I hope you get what I mean? :blink:

No, I meant keep on doubling until you win, then stop (which means take the money and leave)

 

And if you double 8 times and lose all 8 then you should probably just quit

So if you're starting bet is 1m, and you double til you win( 8 times max) you're going to risk 255m just to win 1m? Asks casino managers, the only way to win when gambling is to own the casino...

Yes; as long as you don't do it multiple times you should come out ahead

[BeNiceOk]

Yes; as long as you don't do it multiple times you should come out ahead

 

Ah, I see what you mean now. I suppose that's a loophole to the game. If you continue to double every time, you would make profit the first time you rolled your 40% chance victory. Odds say that you should at least win 4 in 10, so unless you are unlucky you would win by at least your 3rd or 4th try. (See in notes below).

 

[hide=Math Stuffs]

Starting at 1M the first bet and doubling each time.

 

#1 = 1M bet (LOSE = 1M lost ) (WIN = 2-1 = 1M Total Profit)

#2 = 2M bet (LOSE = 3M lost ) (WIN = 4-2-1 = 1M Total Profit)

#3 = 4M bet (LOSE = 7M lost ) (WIN = 8-4-2-1 = 1M Total Profit)

#4 = 8M bet (LOSE = 15M lost ) (WIN = 16-8-4-2-1 = 1M Total Profit)

#5 = 16M bet (LOSE = 31M lost ) (WIN = 32-16-8-4-2-1 = 1M Total Profit)

#6 = 32M bet (LOSE = 63M lost ) (WIN = 64-16-8-4-2-1 = 1M Total Profit)

#7 = 64M bet (LOSE = 127M lost ) (WIN = 128-64...-1 = 1M Total Profit)

#8 = 128M bet (LOSE = 255M lost ) (WIN = 256-128...-1 = 1M Total Profit)

#9 = 256M bet (LOSE = 511M lost ) (WIN = 515-256...-1 = 1M Total Profit)

#10 = 512M bet (LOSE = 1023M lost = Ragequit ) (WIN = 1024-512...-1 = 1M Total Profit)

[/hide]

 

So your right that you can make a "guaranteed" profit on the game (Assuming you don't pull 0/10 odds). You wouldn't even have to stick with the same host as long as you can make sure you bid x2 the amount you bid last. As soon as you hit your victory, you simply restart back at the beginning and repeat the cycle. How much profit you made would depend on what point you rolled your winning score.

 

The only problem is you have to have enough cash that you continue playing until you do win. I would imagine a lot of dice hosts require a high minimum bid or don't allow you to continue rolling to prevent against this method. It works as long as you don't pull a long losing streak.