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Odds in boxing

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Yet to lose any money from it. :).

 

But meh, I fly out to Australia on the 20th of April and after that I won't be seen on RuneScape again. So unless it's going to happen in the next 10 days, I think I'm safe. ;). Plus, April 19th I go "all-out" and see if I'll win/lose it all; A chance at a double or nothing of the past 8+ years which will just end up be given to friends. :).

 

:o Where abouts in Australia are you going toooo?

I live here, it's bloody fantastic

How come you're coming over?


Main Account - Max cape achieved 10th September 2011
Noob Account - 2300 total and climbing 

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Someone already posted a link... but long story short, betting like that does not work.

You have a very good chance of profiting, yes, but eventually one of those times you will simply keep losing until you can no longer afford to double your stake, and get epically cleaned.

then don't bet all your money.

Use it as an income source when you have excess cash, if it yields a profit on average.

Otherwise stick to your day job.


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Yet to lose any money from it. :).

 

But meh, I fly out to Australia on the 20th of April and after that I won't be seen on RuneScape again. So unless it's going to happen in the next 10 days, I think I'm safe. ;). Plus, April 19th I go "all-out" and see if I'll win/lose it all; A chance at a double or nothing of the past 8+ years which will just end up be given to friends. :).

 

:o Where abouts in Australia are you going toooo?

I live here, it's bloody fantastic

How come you're coming over?

Sydney. My GF is waiting for me there. Not been able to go due to fighting 3 MRSA infections/10 knee surgeries for the past 2.5 years. That's gone now, so I go. :D.


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I lost 17 boxes in a row, and we were both maxed. where as other times i win 10 in a row. its all just luck i dont think there is 50/50 chance. because losing 17 times in a row is like winning the lottery

 

I don't think you understand probabilities.

 

Yep. A particular duel's outcome is not determined by the previous duel's outcomes. Every duel is just as likely to win as any other duel, given that all other factors remain equal.

 

But losing 17 duels in a row has a probability of (.5)^17 = 7.62939453 × 10-6, or 1 in 131702. This is the probability of any particular string of wins and losses after 17 duels, but we tend to notice patterns, so losing 17 in a row can be considered rare.

 

Although that's a terrible lottery to win, really.


In Soviet Russia, glass eats OTers.

 

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Yep, staking someone with equal stats as you is the same as flipping a coin. There really is no way to gain an advantage. High defense seems to be the key to winning non-balance stakes, however you're results prove different, mainly because you don't include Jagex's formula into you're code.

 

If you knew this algorithm, than the answer would be yes, you could simulate duels, however they would be just that, simulations. Plus many people find ways to gain an advantage, mainly via cheating. The key to staking is that it takes capital to earn capital. So even with a max account, there is possiblity of a bad run, which is why so many people get cleaned.

 

End note, staking is not a good way to earn gp. The only way to get ahead is to get lucky, and the best way to get lucky is to do one big stake against someone with equal stats, and then go back to whatever it is that you are doing.

 

Watch NightmareRH's youtube video, he did it right. He was even at a disadvantage(the other player had better stats), and still manage to get lucky. I'm sure he hasn't tried staking since.

 

Staking is the best way to earn gp.

 

Yes it is all luck, and you can be lucky more then once, there is always the one off chance that you can beat a player with better stats then yours.

If you do this once and double your cash, then fight someone with lower stats and double your cash again, your looking at a big profit. So I cannot see how "Staking is not a good way to earn gp" and it dose not take capital to earn capital. You can start with 500k and leave with 20m gp. I have done it numerous times. As you said it is all luck, and ofcourse knowing when to stop.

 

Also, I forgot to add that first hit has a major factor in winning stakes. You wont win everytime but you certaintly have the advantage. Also in boxing your varying your attack style can give you an advantage as each style adds I think 3%, So if your opponent is using strength kick, use defence punch, if using attack punch use kick, If using defence punch use attack punch.

 

If that makes any sense. It seems to work sometimes, mass clicking your opponent after changing styles seems to work also. So yes it is luck but the player can change the outcome.


II30XIIVIIE- training

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Yep, staking someone with equal stats as you is the same as flipping a coin. There really is no way to gain an advantage. High defense seems to be the key to winning non-balance stakes, however you're results prove different, mainly because you don't include Jagex's formula into you're code.

 

If you knew this algorithm, than the answer would be yes, you could simulate duels, however they would be just that, simulations. Plus many people find ways to gain an advantage, mainly via cheating. The key to staking is that it takes capital to earn capital. So even with a max account, there is possiblity of a bad run, which is why so many people get cleaned.

 

End note, staking is not a good way to earn gp. The only way to get ahead is to get lucky, and the best way to get lucky is to do one big stake against someone with equal stats, and then go back to whatever it is that you are doing.

 

Watch NightmareRH's youtube video, he did it right. He was even at a disadvantage(the other player had better stats), and still manage to get lucky. I'm sure he hasn't tried staking since.

 

Staking is the best way to earn gp.

 

Yes it is all luck, and you can be lucky more then once, there is always the one off chance that you can beat a player with better stats then yours.

If you do this once and double your cash, then fight someone with lower stats and double your cash again, your looking at a big profit. So I cannot see how "Staking is not a good way to earn gp" and it dose not take capital to earn capital. You can start with 500k and leave with 20m gp. I have done it numerous times. As you said it is all luck, and ofcourse knowing when to stop.

 

Seems like everyone I talk to who stakes tries to play down the fact that you can lose big too. For every screenshot I see of someone winning billions, one of my friends pms me to tell me he just got cleaned.


From the empty days of hope, deny the darkness
Follow my voice, we'll run far away from here

If only to hide, to escape this life
And live forever, forever in the sun

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You forgot to take into account first hit when you're boxing. Although its almost insignificant.

 

With my statistics and knowledge of how to cls with different delays, rapier staking was around a 57-58% win rate when you have first hit and a cls. I think without a cls it was only about 52-53%.

Boxing and Mage Boxing are less affected by first hit -- almost to the point that its not affected at all. Learned that from personal experience <_<


Started free trade with 1.5m cash. 2 weeks later, have hit max cash 2x.

 

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9 Dragon Full Helms, 3 Dragonfire Shields on the old PvP loot system

 

Brawler guide is being finished!

 

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I lost 17 boxes in a row, and we were both maxed. where as other times i win 10 in a row. its all just luck i dont think there is 50/50 chance. because losing 17 times in a row is like winning the lottery

 

I don't think you understand probabilities.

 

Yep. A particular duel's outcome is not determined by the previous duel's outcomes. Every duel is just as likely to win as any other duel, given that all other factors remain equal.

 

But losing 17 duels in a row has a probability of (.5)^17 = 7.62939453 × 10-6, or 1 in 131702. This is the probability of any particular string of wins and losses after 17 duels, but we tend to notice patterns, so losing 17 in a row can be considered rare.

 

Although that's a terrible lottery to win, really.

 

Albeit I'm not a master of statistics, I could tell you one thing: the probability you've presented is the probability of losing exactly 17 duels consecutively, not accounting for the fact that you could lose 17 or more duels consecutively.

 

Even if the probability of losing big/all is considerably rare, it is less likely that you could earn enough staking that it could repay these unfortunate 'flukes'. The true winners have enough self control to log out and do something else.

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