Designing A Task List

[Xensure]

Some time ago I started work on a spreadsheet that attempts to predict the number of charms you would get from a certain slayer task list. After quite a bit of work and several iterations I have created a model in excel that predicts the outcomes of a particular task list over a certain interval of slayer xp. The model gives the expected number of green, crimson, and blue charms, the number of effigies, the prayer xp, slayer points, and how long it will take over any interval of slayer xp with any task list from Kuradel. I made this model so that a player could make informed decisions about what task list they want to do based on the outcomes they want. I have now updated the model so it looks decent and added an input sheet so you do not have to look at the very confusing model sheet. I am also quite confidant in the way to model works and it being correct so I am now posting this here for the general public and to get some feedback to further develop this tool.

 

The things I need help on:

 

- The way the model predicts all of these outcome values is by using the probability of being assigned any one particular task. The way these probabilities are collected is by doing slayer task with all task UNLOCKED and UNBLOCKED. This way all task have the chance to selected and the frequencies of getting these tasks are written down and then each individual task's probability is found by dividing that tasks frequency over the total number of unblocked tasks logged. So far I have help from two players who were gracious enough to remove all of their blocked tasks and do several hundred tasks. Currently I have 345 unblocked tasks logged. This is a good amount of, but not nearly enough to have statistically accurate probabilities. In order to be 95% confidant that the discovered probabilities are within .02 of the true mean, we would need at least 2400 unblocked tasks logged. So anyone willing help and remove their blocked tasks and gather frequency data would be much appreciated.

 

- Because of the lack of unblocked tasks logged I am left with a 55% statistical error margin in my output data. This will be narrowed quickly with more unblocked tasks logged, but even with this is error I need players to test how accurate my model is by putting in their task list in to the model and seeing if they get around the same amounts of charms, effigies, xp, and time predicted by the model over a specific interval of slayer xp.

 

- At the bottom of the output range you will notice a yellow highlighted cell called "Skilling Hs - Slayer Hs." This is my attempt at a master formula that would provide just one number as to how good a task list is. This would allow a player to just find the task list that maximizes this formula to find the optimal task list for them. This function is a very basic one taking the total hours of skilling saved from all of the effigies, charms, and prayer xp gained over your interval of slayer xp, then it subtracts the total hours slaying for the that xp interval. The task list that maximizes this function should be the optimal task list. I am by no means 100% confidant in my formulas for this function as of now so any and all help on developing this would be greatly appreciated.

 

- If there are any people out there who know how to make excel functions that look up data from a website please let me know because I would like to make it so you could just enter your player name instead of entering your slayer and summoning xp by hand.

 

How to use the model:

 

I tried to make it very user friendly and I put usage instructions on the input sheet, so I am not going to explain how to use it here because I just want to see what errors people come up with so that I can prevent them from happing in future versions. So try and break the model mess around with it, see if you can find any issues and please report any bugs back to me. One thing I will say is that "E(slayer points)" is the expected value of slayer points every time you "roll" for task. If the number is positive you should expect to gain net slayer points over time if it is negative you should expect to lose net slayer points.

 

One warning, none of the cells even in the model tab are locked so if you accidentally the model you will have to redownload it.

 

I used excel2007 and the file is saved as a .xlsm so if you want to use the activeX button in the model you will have to enable macros. I am sorry to anyone who uses open office you will not be able to use the model well, but most of it should still work.

 

Download link: http://www.mediafire.com/?z9m9zcwz172jbt7

[Grimy_Bunyip]

I could rewrite your file in google doc, since that's what I'm more comfortable using.

I'll add in a hiscore extractor and some other code I think you'll find useful.

And of course, it's a google doc so people won't need to download a document to use it.

 

I'll also see if anybody has any relevant data.

I asked a few people to consider logging unblocked task data for me a few months ago.

I'll double check to see if they got anywhere with that.

 

So, we should talk.

 

do you have skype by any chance? I'd prefer that.

[Aten]

accidentally the what?

 

Looks awesome, I'll give it a try this week and see what happens.

[Xensure]

I could rewrite your file in google doc, since that's what I'm more comfortable using.

I'll add in a hiscore extractor and some other code I think you'll find useful.

And of course, it's a google doc so people won't need to download a document to use it.

 

I'll also see if anybody has any relevant data.

I asked a few people to consider logging unblocked task data for me a few months ago.

I'll double check to see if they got anywhere with that.

 

So, we should talk.

 

do you have skype by any chance? I'd prefer that.

 

Awesome. That would be great if you could make it a google spreadsheet, though I use one activeX button I don't think that google has that available so a way around that will have to be found. I'll PM you.

 

accidentally the what?

 

Looks awesome, I'll give it a try this week and see what happens.

 

Just a small internet meme: http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/i-accidentally

 

Thanks for taking a look if you are currently saying in RS if you could put in like 1m slayer xp interval and see if you get anywhere close to the expected numbers charms, and effigies. I would say you could do a smaller interval like 500k, but as the interval of slayer xp gets small more variation comes in to play.

[cruzaar]

I'll happily do 1m of Slaying comparison for you. I get about 100-220k Slayer XP/Day.

Do I have to record all charms? Because I don't pick up golds usually.

 

I'll start tonight.

[Aten]

You were supposed to answer "a whole coke bottle" :(

 

Same question as Cruzaar, do you want people to record all charms, or only crims and blues?

[Xensure]

I'll happily do 1m of Slaying comparison for you. I get about 100-220k Slayer XP/Day.

Do I have to record all charms? Because I don't pick up golds usually.

 

I'll start tonight.

 

Hey thanks. You do not need to record gold charms, My model does not predict them because the gold charm drop rates were hard to come by. I may add them later if I can get reliable data. If you would record green, crimson, and blue, plus effigies and if you think default kills are close to what you get, or you enter your own kills per hour, record the time it takes to do that 1m xp in hours.

[cruzaar]

I'll happily do 1m of Slaying comparison for you. I get about 100-220k Slayer XP/Day.

Do I have to record all charms? Because I don't pick up golds usually.

 

I'll start tonight.

 

Hey thanks. You do not need to record gold charms, My model does not predict them because the gold charm drop rates were hard to come by. I may add them later if I can get reliable data. If you would record green, crimson, and blue, plus effigies and if you think default kills are close to what you get, or you enter your own kills per hour, record the time it takes to do that 1m xp in hours.

 

 

Alright I'll do my best :) Just a note; I'm not the best with kill rates because I have terrible internet. But I'll focus 100% on my tasks while I'm doing this and see what I get.

I have Cannon + Rapier + Turm + Ovls on every task that allows.

[cruzaar]

Is the time taken just the time from when I start killing until the task is complete?

[Xensure]

Is the time taken just the time from when I start killing until the task is complete?

 

Yeah, my model does not take in to account the time form when you finish your current task through getting a new one, banking, and getting to the new spot. Travel time is just assumed 0 because it is not worth calculating. Don't strain your self too hard over the milliseconds of each of your tasks, but any information you can get me would be greatly appreciated. Thanks a lot.

[Gemeos2]

Error: We are currently unable to service your download request, please retry your request in a few minutes or contact support for further assistance. Please report this key to support (z9m9zcwz172jbt7)

 

:(

 

EDIT: It's working now =)