Drop rate and drop chance

[runetipguy]

I registered here just to distinguish the two terms drop "rate" and "chance"

I was appalled at many of users responses to the drop rate of a draconic visage thread[now locked]. There were a handful of people who got the terms correctly, but were attacked by ignorant posters making them look like fools (the irony I know). The ignorant posters reasoning however is correct, it's just the terms they have mixed up.

 

Drop rate: The definition of drop rate can be put simply as the monsters you have to kill before receiving the desired item. I.e, there is a linear relationship between amount of desired item and amount of monsters killed. So say if the drop rate of a bronze dagger by a goblin is 1/5[example, not real data]. This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger. It can't be the 1st, 3rd,etc-only the fifth.

 

Drop chance: The definition of this is basically probability. This is the most correct term for the item dropping term chance predicament in that thread. Using the goblin example again, say the drop chance is 20%, Then EACH goblin I kill there is a 20% chance of it dropping the dagger. This chance is used every single goblin that I kill. If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger. I could get 5,4,3,2 ,1 even 0. The 5th kill doesn't guarrantee that I'll get the dagger.

 

So I hope you guys now know the distinction

[Lose No Hope]

Actually, they can be used in place of each other. The drop rate is the average rate for obtaining a drop. If the rate is 1/100, there is a 1% chance of the item being dropped.

 

Also, how did you get that the meaning of drop rate is that you can only get the dagger on the fifth kill? In written form, 1/5 is "one of five." Unless specified, it can almost always be assumed that one in that equation can be obtained by any of those 5 kills.

[runetipguy]

Actually, they can be used in place of each other. The drop rate is the average rate for obtaining a drop. If the rate is 1/100, there is a 1% chance of the item being dropped.

 

Also, how did you get that the meaning of drop rate is that you can only get the dagger on the fifth kill? In written form, 1/5 is "one of five." Unless specified, it can almost always be assumed that one in that equation can be obtained by any of those 5 kills.

 

In that perspective, yes it can however your case only consider's the AVERAGE rate. The most accurate chance drop is instantaneous, so @ the time of the kill only. this is what everyone is trying to figure out. Hence drop chance is the correct term.

 

I think everyone needs a maths lesson on "rates". Rate: the change in value with respect to time or any other independent variable. A good example is the amount of water flowing into a bucket. Say the rate of water in is 5mL/s. This means that every second 5mls goes in the bucket. A more relevant example would be 0.2mL entering the bucket every second. Every 5 seconds we have 1mL. For the goblin thing, we can't have 0.2 daggers each kill. If we plot the points on a graph however, we will see that for every 5 monster killed, there is 1 dagger. The gradient = the rate (sorry for being technical), = 0.2 = 1/5 = rate

[Lose No Hope]

Actually, they can be used in place of each other. The drop rate is the average rate for obtaining a drop. If the rate is 1/100, there is a 1% chance of the item being dropped.

 

Also, how did you get that the meaning of drop rate is that you can only get the dagger on the fifth kill? In written form, 1/5 is "one of five." Unless specified, it can almost always be assumed that one in that equation can be obtained by any of those 5 kills.

 

In that perspective, yes it can however your case only consider's the AVERAGE rate. The most accurate chance drop is instantaneous, so @ the time of the kill only. this is what everyone is trying to figure out. Hence drop chance is the correct term.

 

I think everyone needs a maths lesson on "rates". Rate: the change in value with respect to time or any other independent variable. A good example is the amount of water flowing into a bucket. Say the rate of water in is 5mL/s. This means that every second 5mls goes in the bucket. A more relevant example would be 0.2mL entering the bucket every second. Every 5 seconds we have 1mL. For the goblin thing, we can't have 0.2 daggers each kill. If we plot the points on a graph however, we will see that for every monster killed, there is 1 dagger. The gradient = the rate (sorry for being technical), = 0.2 = 1/5 = rate

The average rate is the rate that every drop is based on. After 5000 kills (the larger sample size for finding an average, the better), you would average around 1000 daggers.

 

You're going about this the wrong way. Your bucket example is irrelevant; the drop rate doesn't increase for every kill you get. There are no fractions of an item. You either get the item or you don't, and the chance of getting the item doesn't increase after each kill.

[Dr_Vermin]

The thing about language, especially in mathematics and science, is that it's allowed to be context specific. The accepted meaning of words is usually defined by the way people use them, not the other way round. If the 'official' definiton of a word doesn't match common usage, it's the official definition that will change - that's how language evolves. I'm not suggesting that language is evolving in this case, merely that we have a context specific defition of the phrase 'drop rate'.

 

 

In this case, there are no 'drop rates' in runescape, only 'drop chances'. Hence, we can call them 'drop rates' with no ambiguity. It's context specific; when somebody uses the phrase 'drop rate' in regards to runescape, it can be implicitly assumed that it is a 'one in x chance' being referred to, simply because there are no 'kill monster x times for 100% chance of drop' cases in runescape. If we used the phrase 'drop rate' in a different game where the distinction was important, the phrase might have a different meaning.

 

If somebody has any idea at all how runescape works, they obviously know that every time you kill a monster, you have x chance of getting a certain drop. Saying "Killing x monsters does NOT give you a 100% chance of drop: it's RANDOM!" is just insulting their intelligence.

[Star.]

This is more fitting for General Discussion. Moved.

[xpx]

Well, as in RS any drop that doesn't have 100% drop rate has a drop rate on exactly 0, it's not worth even discussing that term. As this is the case, the two terms can easily be used in place of eachother without causing any confusion.

[la la la]

Wrong.

 

I googled "Rate in statistics"

 

1) Unemployment rate is 9.2%

 

2) Infant Mortality rate is 6.75 in 1000.

 

Percentages and chances out of 1000 that something will occur. Take the infant mortality rate. It's not saying that 6.75 infants WILL DIE in every 1000. It is saying that, over billions of sample cases, we have arrived at a base statistic for the chances of the particular event occurring. They're interchangeable... and we all knew what they meant without having to clarify in the first place.

 

To people saying "average rate," you're just repeating yourselves. "Rate" implies "average."

[Crossed_Body]

You're arguing semantics to feel intelligent? Poor critter...

[tigershelby2]

I dont really see the point of this post at all. You created it to defend the people who got the term "right" but does it really matter? If you say drop rate or drop chance, we all understand that you are asking for the probability of getting a specific drop from a specific monster. Everyone who has gotten past lvl 10 knows that you are never guaranteed a specific drop from a monster except bones/ashes/hides, and that any other drop is random. Anyone who has camped a single monster for that one high priced item knows that they could kill 1 and get the drop, or kill 1000's and never see it once. Im sorry that not everyone uses your "correct" terms, but its the world we live in, so suck it up and deal with it, dont try to correct everyone.

[runetipguy]

Actually, they can be used in place of each other. The drop rate is the average rate for obtaining a drop. If the rate is 1/100, there is a 1% chance of the item being dropped.

 

Also, how did you get that the meaning of drop rate is that you can only get the dagger on the fifth kill? In written form, 1/5 is "one of five." Unless specified, it can almost always be assumed that one in that equation can be obtained by any of those 5 kills.

 

In that perspective, yes it can however your case only consider's the AVERAGE rate. The most accurate chance drop is instantaneous, so @ the time of the kill only. this is what everyone is trying to figure out. Hence drop chance is the correct term.

 

I think everyone needs a maths lesson on "rates". Rate: the change in value with respect to time or any other independent variable. A good example is the amount of water flowing into a bucket. Say the rate of water in is 5mL/s. This means that every second 5mls goes in the bucket. A more relevant example would be 0.2mL entering the bucket every second. Every 5 seconds we have 1mL. For the goblin thing, we can't have 0.2 daggers each kill. If we plot the points on a graph however, we will see that for every monster killed, there is 1 dagger. The gradient = the rate (sorry for being technical), = 0.2 = 1/5 = rate

The average rate is the rate that every drop is based on. After 5000 kills (the larger sample size for finding an average, the better), you would average around 1000 daggers.

 

You're going about this the wrong way. Your bucket example is irrelevant; the drop rate doesn't increase for every kill you get. There are no fractions of an item. You either get the item or you don't, and the chance of getting the item doesn't increase after each kill.

 

The average rate is calculated by using a wide range of scores which are based on the instantaenous rate. Consider this: I go from 0km/h to 60km/h. My average speed is 30km/h but this is a poor measure of my instantaneous speeds on on which I was travelling. Chance of dropping a dagger = 1/5. We WOULD EXPECT to get 1000 after 5000 kills, however this is not always the case. This is junior school probability mate

 

Please read everything, I did say the bucket was not relevant, and hence provided the connection between my scenario to the bucket analogy. AND PLUS I SAID THE GRADIENT IS a fixed number, hence it's constant because it's a straight line. Chance does not increase

[runetipguy]

The thing about language, especially in mathematics and science, is that it's allowed to be context specific. The accepted meaning of words is usually defined by the way people use them, not the other way round. If the 'official' definiton of a word doesn't match common usage, it's the official definition that will change - that's how language evolves. I'm not suggesting that language is evolving in this case, merely that we have a context specific defition of the phrase 'drop rate'.

 

 

In this case, there are no 'drop rates' in runescape, only 'drop chances'. Hence, we can call them 'drop rates' with no ambiguity. It's context specific; when somebody uses the phrase 'drop rate' in regards to runescape, it can be implicitly assumed that it is a 'one in x chance' being referred to, simply because there are no 'kill monster x times for 100% chance of drop' cases in runescape. If we used the phrase 'drop rate' in a different game where the distinction was important, the phrase might have a different meaning.

 

If somebody has any idea at all how runescape works, they obviously know that every time you kill a monster, you have x chance of getting a certain drop. Saying "Killing x monsters does NOT give you a 100% chance of drop: it's RANDOM!" is just insulting their intelligence.

 

You have a good point there. I did take that into account, though I saw many people who understood the distinction between rate and chance were attacked by the people who were ignorant in that draconic viasge thread. I wanted to settle the confusion.

Well, as in RS any drop that doesn't have 100% drop rate has a drop rate on exactly 0, it's not worth even discussing that term. As this is the case, the two terms can easily be used in place of eachother without causing any confusion.

 

Your logic is flawed. Maybe you didn't express your idea correctly, and for now please understand OUTSIDE of runescape, rates and chance are not interchangeable

[runetipguy]

Wrong.

 

I googled "Rate in statistics"

 

1) Unemployment rate is 9.2%

 

2) Infant Mortality rate is 6.75 in 1000.

 

Percentages and chances out of 1000 that something will occur. Take the infant mortality rate. It's not saying that 6.75 infants WILL DIE in every 1000. It is saying that, over billions of sample cases, we have arrived at a base statistic for the chances of the particular event occurring. They're interchangeable... and we all knew what they meant without having to clarify in the first place.

 

To people saying "average rate," you're just repeating yourselves. "Rate" implies "average."

 

In the runescape item context, people are trying to derive the formula for the chance an item will drop. They have not succeeded(obviously as the programming code isn't released by Jagex) and use scores gathered by many people and have used created the AVERAGE chance of dropping the item. Not the actual chance on which the item drops. We can only get a more and more accurate percentage when the number of trials are very large (it's 100% accurate when it approaches infinity)

In summary: We want the ACTUAL chace, not the AVERAGE chance which is dervied from data. The AVERAGE chance is only an estimate of the ACTUAL chance

 

The data you're using is derived from statistics. It's an AVERAGE rate not the instantenous rate. Instantenous rate means the rate of which people get unemployed or die at a time zero event (i.e. at exactly time = 21/4/10 @ 6:21 pm 1 second). This is very difficult to calculate as so many factors influence this rate. Therefore we estimate the rate using the data we(they) have gathered.

[runetipguy]

You're arguing semantics to feel intelligent? Poor critter...

I'm arguing on behalf of all the people who make legitamate opinions who are being put down by the ignorant people(and they're winning). Noone likes ignorant people, yet we're all ignorant...I 'd like to change that because the world would spin around easier if there's less ignorance in our world

 

I dont really see the point of this post at all. You created it to defend the people who got the term "right" but does it really matter? If you say drop rate or drop chance, we all understand that you are asking for the probability of getting a specific drop from a specific monster. Everyone who has gotten past lvl 10 knows that you are never guaranteed a specific drop from a monster except bones/ashes/hides, and that any other drop is random. Anyone who has camped a single monster for that one high priced item knows that they could kill 1 and get the drop, or kill 1000's and never see it once. Im sorry that not everyone uses your "correct" terms, but its the world we live in, so suck it up and deal with it, dont try to correct everyone.

 

Point of thread: Distinguish rate and chance. Less ignorance in this community.

They weren't 100% right, and were claiming they were 100% right. That is never agreeable to any human being.

Not my correct terms, it;'s THE correct terms.

 

I don't know why everyone is making replies filled with anger, I was merely trying to improve everyones knowledge

[runetipguy]

 

Sorry, corrected

 

For some reason I can't get the quote. It's the 3rd post, bolded the change.

I'm a noob in using this forum's interface lol

[Cyon]

This just seems like trolls who were playing semantics on the intelligent posters. Therefore they didn't win until this thread was created I believe.

 

Although the way I take "Drop rate" is how you defined "Drop Chance".

[curtis95112]

I suppose if the mortality rate of ebola is 80% your survival will depend solely on whether the number of people who contracted ebola before you was a multiple of 5?

 

I think you're just wrong.

[runetipguy]

I suppose if the mortality rate of ebola is 80% your survival will depend solely on whether the number of people who contracted ebola before you was a multiple of 5?

 

I think you're just wrong.

 

YES that IS WRONG. Hence why the chances of surviving depends on a more specific probability; which is probabaly incalculatable because of the number of factors that influences your survival.

 

What the hell have you been reading man? You basically said my idea is correct, and now you're saying I'm wrong

[runetipguy]

This just seems like trolls who were playing semantics on the intelligent posters. Therefore they didn't win until this thread was created I believe.

 

Although the way I take "Drop rate" is how you defined "Drop Chance".

 

Someone else said semantics, and I thought they misspelled "schematics"

 

What is semantics, cbf googling

[curtis95112]

I suppose if the mortality rate of ebola is 80% your survival will depend solely on whether the number of people who contracted ebola before you was a multiple of 5?

 

I think you're just wrong.

 

YES that IS WRONG. Hence why the chances of surviving depends on a more specific probability; which is probabaly incalculatable because of the number of factors that influences your survival.

 

What the hell have you been reading man? You basically said my idea is correct, and now you're saying I'm wrong

 

I was pointing to the "rate" in "mortality rate".

[runetipguy]

I suppose if the mortality rate of ebola is 80% your survival will depend solely on whether the number of people who contracted ebola before you was a multiple of 5?

 

I think you're just wrong.

 

YES that IS WRONG. Hence why the chances of surviving depends on a more specific probability; which is probabaly incalculatable because of the number of factors that influences your survival.

 

What the hell have you been reading man? You basically said my idea is correct, and now you're saying I'm wrong

 

I was pointing to the "rate" in "mortality rate".

Your survival is probability. The rate means how many people in total have died and can be used to determine the APPROXIMATE probaility of surviving

[curtis95112]

 

Your survival is probability. The rate means how many people in total have died and can be used to determine the APPROXIMATE probaility of surviving

 

The drops are probability. The rate means how many items in total have dropped and can be used to determine the APPROXIMATE probability of said item dropping.

[Wkw]

You still have a 1 in 5 chance, of 20% chance each kill to get a dagger

 

What is the point of this thread again?

[ho3f3l]

 

Drop rate: The definition of drop rate can be put simply as the monsters you have to kill before receiving the desired item. I.e, there is a linear relationship between amount of desired item and amount of monsters killed. So say if the drop rate of a bronze dagger by a goblin is 1/5[example, not real data]. This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger. It can't be the 1st, 3rd,etc-only the fifth.

 

 

this is so wrong!!! 1/5 doesnt mean, 5th kill is drop, means that in 5 kills one of them is drop, but we can arrange that in different ways and still be 1/5

 

D = Drop

N = No drop

 

DNNNN

NDNNN

NNDNN

NNNDN

NNNND

 

and you can mix up them, to an event of 5k times, to have k D, but not necesseraly they need to be spaced up with 4 N's

 

you could have all D's first then the rest N's, and so on..

[Smapla]

I've never heard the term drop chance used before.

 

For every monster with a set of possible drops D1, D2, ... Dn, each drop has a probability P1, P2, ... Pn of being selected upon the death of the monster, of being the drop actually given to the player. The sum of the probabilities, P1 + P2 + ... Pn = 1, because some drop must be chosen (though some monsters can drop nothing, that essentially means one of the drops is a null-drop).

 

As you have described it, you are incorrect in your definition of 'drop rate'. There is no number of monsters you can kill to guarantee a certain drop (excluding, obviously, bugs or '100%' drops). The same concept applies to something like a coin, where you might be 'unlucky' and flip tails a great number of times in a row.

 

However, as you kill more and more of a monster, the chance of never having obtained some particular drop D decreases. This is because if the probability of obtaining a drop D is P, then the probability of not obtaining the drop D, will of course be the sum total of the probabilities of obtaining any other drop, which is 1 - P (since the total probabilities is 1). Since 0 < P < 1, we have that 0 < 1-P < 1. The chance of not getting the drop D after killing a monster n times will then be (1-P)^n. Anyone who has taken algebra will know that repeated multiplication of a number between 0 and 1 results in a smaller number. Essentially, though 1-P (the chance of not getting the desired drop) might be very probable, the chance of not getting the drop a large number of times is not very probable.

 

It is often said that you might kill a monster a million times and never obtain the drop you are looking for. This is true, in fact the probability of not obtaining a drop D with 'droprate' P in a million kills will be (1-P)^1000000. Since 1-P is not zero, this quantity will never be zero, and thus always has a chance of occurring.

 

Edited for clarity.