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Drop rate and drop chance


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It's good that you bring up this subject. The most important point is however that you understand that you're never guaranteed a certain drop after a certain amount of kills. Because when talking about drop chance or drop rate, even though drop chance is the correct word, people still think about the same thing. Even though it is wrong, just as you point out in your post.

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I've never heard the term drop chance used before.

 

For every monster with a set of possible drops D1, D2, ... Dn, each drop has a probability P1, P2, ... Pn of being selected upon the death of the monster, of being the drop actually given to the player. The sum of the probabilities, P1 + P2 + ... Pn = 1, because some drop must be chosen (though some monsters can drop nothing, that essentially means one of the drops is a null-drop).

 

As you have described it, you are incorrect in your definition of 'drop rate'. There is no number of monsters you can kill to guarantee a certain drop (excluding, obviously, bugs or '100%' drops). The same concept applies to something like a coin, where you might be 'unlucky' and flip tails a great number of times in a row.

 

However, as you kill more and more of a monster, the chance of never having obtained some particular drop D decreases. This is because if the probability of obtaining a drop D is P, then the probability of not obtaining the drop D, will of course be the sum total of the probabilities of obtaining any other drop, which is 1 - P (since the total probabilities is 1). Since 0 < P < 1, we have that 0 < 1-P < 1. The chance of not getting the drop D after killing a monster n times will then be (1-P)^n. Anyone who has taken algebra will know that repeated multiplication of a number between 0 and 1 results in a smaller number. Essentially, though 1-P (the chance of not getting the desired drop) might be very probable, the chance of not getting the drop a large number of times is not very probable.

 

It is often said that you might kill a monster a million times and never obtain the drop you are looking for. This is true, in fact the probability of not obtaining a drop D with 'droprate' P in a million kills will be (1-P)^1000000. Since 1-P is not zero, this quantity will never be zero, and thus always has a chance of occurring.

 

Edited for clarity.

 

yeah all so good, but since they are indepedent events, not getting the drop will not make you have more chance on next one... it will be the same

 

it's like an dice, i want to get a 6, if i throw one time and get a 2, that won't make me have more chance to get an 6.... it will stay the same

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I've never heard the term drop chance used before.

 

For every monster with a set of possible drops D1, D2, ... Dn, each drop has a probability P1, P2, ... Pn of being selected upon the death of the monster, of being the drop actually given to the player. The sum of the probabilities, P1 + P2 + ... Pn = 1, because some drop must be chosen (though some monsters can drop nothing, that essentially means one of the drops is a null-drop).

 

As you have described it, you are incorrect in your definition of 'drop rate'. There is no number of monsters you can kill to guarantee a certain drop (excluding, obviously, bugs or '100%' drops). The same concept applies to something like a coin, where you might be 'unlucky' and flip tails a great number of times in a row.

 

However, as you kill more and more of a monster, the chance of never having obtained some particular drop D decreases. This is because if the probability of obtaining a drop D is P, then the probability of not obtaining the drop D, will of course be the sum total of the probabilities of obtaining any other drop, which is 1 - P (since the total probabilities is 1). Since 0 < P < 1, we have that 0 < 1-P < 1. The chance of not getting the drop D after killing a monster n times will then be (1-P)^n. Anyone who has taken algebra will know that repeated multiplication of a number between 0 and 1 results in a smaller number. Essentially, though 1-P (the chance of not getting the desired drop) might be very probable, the chance of not getting the drop a large number of times is not very probable.

 

It is often said that you might kill a monster a million times and never obtain the drop you are looking for. This is true, in fact the probability of not obtaining a drop D with 'droprate' P in a million kills will be (1-P)^1000000. Since 1-P is not zero, this quantity will never be zero, and thus always has a chance of occurring.

 

Edited for clarity.

 

yeah all so good, but since they are indepedent events, not getting the drop will not make you have more chance on next one... it will be the same

 

it's like an dice, i want to get a 6, if i throw one time and get a 2, that won't make me have more chance to get an 6.... it will stay the same

 

Yes this is true, it does tend to make people angry though when you say something like 'how many you've killed so far is irrelevant, if you go kill xx more of them you'll have a 90% chance of getting the drop though'.

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This thread is filled with idiots who don't understand what the OP is saying.

 

OP is still wrong. The problem is that barely anyone in this thread understands WHY the OP is wrong.

 

 

I registered here just to distinguish the two terms drop "rate" and "chance"

I was appalled at many of users responses to the drop rate of a draconic visage thread[now locked]. There were a handful of people who got the terms correctly, but were attacked by ignorant posters making them look like fools (the irony I know). The ignorant posters reasoning however is correct, it's just the terms they have mixed up.

 

Drop rate: The definition of drop rate can be put simply as the monsters you have to kill before receiving the desired item. I.e, there is a linear relationship between amount of desired item and amount of monsters killed. So say if the drop rate of a bronze dagger by a goblin is 1/5[example, not real data]. This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger. It can't be the 1st, 3rd,etc-only the fifth.

 

Drop chance: The definition of this is basically probability. This is the most correct term for the item dropping term chance predicament in that thread. Using the goblin example again, say the drop chance is 20%, Then EACH goblin I kill there is a 20% chance of it dropping the dagger. This chance is used every single goblin that I kill. If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger. I could get 5,4,3,2 ,1 even 0. The 5th kill doesn't guarrantee that I'll get the dagger.

 

So I hope you guys now know the distinction

 

Besides what I've highlighted in red, the only other big issue I see with the post is the internal inconsistency.

 

 

This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger.
If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger.
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It's good that you bring up this subject. The most important point is however that you understand that you're never guaranteed a certain drop after a certain amount of kills. Because when talking about drop chance or drop rate, even though drop chance is the correct word, people still think about the same thing. Even though it is wrong, just as you point out in your post.

 

I disagree. Drop rate is just as valid as drop chance. In fact, I'd argue drop rate is better if only because the majority of people use it.

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I registered here just to distinguish the two terms drop "rate" and "chance"

I was appalled at many of users responses to the drop rate of a draconic visage thread[now locked]. There were a handful of people who got the terms correctly, but were attacked by ignorant posters making them look like fools (the irony I know). The ignorant posters reasoning however is correct, it's just the terms they have mixed up.

 

Drop rate: The definition of drop rate can be put simply as the monsters you have to kill before receiving the desired item. I.e, there is a linear relationship between amount of desired item and amount of monsters killed. So say if the drop rate of a bronze dagger by a goblin is 1/5[example, not real data]. This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger. It can't be the 1st, 3rd,etc-only the fifth.

 

Drop chance: The definition of this is basically probability. This is the most correct term for the item dropping term chance predicament in that thread. Using the goblin example again, say the drop chance is 20%, Then EACH goblin I kill there is a 20% chance of it dropping the dagger. This chance is used every single goblin that I kill. If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger. I could get 5,4,3,2 ,1 even 0. The 5th kill doesn't guarrantee that I'll get the dagger.

 

So I hope you guys now know the distinction

 

The problem is your definition of drop rate is, to be blunt, wrong. You are the only person on this thread with that definition of drop-rate. It is a definition of drop rate I have never heard of, because I have never played any video game where there is any monster you can kill that drops a particular item once for every X kills, where X is one single integer greater then one. I am not sure where you got this definition from.

 

In any case, the meaning of a word or phrase is the definition most people (of a community) use for that word or phrase.

 

Two last notes:

 

1. I must apologize in advanced, because this probably constitutes flame-bait, but I think the OP might be trolling. Just might. This thread reminds me of a lot of other dumb threads I've read that were created by trolls. To the OP, I apologize if this is not the case.

 

2. This "drop-rate" idea, which currently does not exist in any game that I am aware of, would be a rather nice addition for certain really rare non-tradeable drops, such as champions scrolls.

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If I kill X goblins (X -> infinity)

I get X/5 daggers

 

(I could say "if I kill infinite amount of goblins, I will get infinity/5 daggers, but that'd be wrong)

 

This will settle the confusion

 

No, this won't.

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This is what I now understand from reading this thread:

 

Nothing.

 

IMO this is a pointless debate/argument.

 

Agreed.

 

This thread is dumb.

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You're really just confusing probability rate with finite rate. The words are NOT interchangable, however the word "rate" can be used in different contextes to mean different things. To say that someone is wrong when they refer to "drop rate" as the probability of receiving a drop is just ignorant. As has been said, when rates are used with probability, the term defines what a person should expect, and not a finite value.

 

So as has been said, this thread is really based on semantics and ignorance of the OP. There are such things as context-sensitive words. Car and automobile are often interchanged, however some people (with similiar mindset as the OP) will get all butthurt over people referring to their pickup truck as a "car".

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I've never heard the term drop chance used before.For every monster with a set of possible drops D1, D2, ... Dn, each drop has a probability P1, P2, ... Pn of being selected upon the death of the monster, of being the drop actually given to the player. The sum of the probabilities, P1 + P2 + ... Pn = 1, because some drop must be chosen (though some monsters can drop nothing, that essentially means one of the drops is a null-drop).As you have described it, you are incorrect in your definition of 'drop rate'. There is no number of monsters you can kill to guarantee a certain drop (excluding, obviously, bugs or '100%' drops). The same concept applies to something like a coin, where you might be 'unlucky' and flip tails a great number of times in a row.However, as you kill more and more of a monster, the chance of never having obtained some particular drop D decreases. This is because if the probability of obtaining a drop D is P, then the probability of not obtaining the drop D, will of course be the sum total of the probabilities of obtaining any other drop, which is 1 - P (since the total probabilities is 1). Since 0 < P < 1, we have that 0 < 1-P < 1. The chance of not getting the drop D after killing a monster n times will then be (1-P)^n. Anyone who has taken algebra will know that repeated multiplication of a number between 0 and 1 results in a smaller number. Essentially, though 1-P (the chance of not getting the desired drop) might be very probable, the chance of not getting the drop a large number of times is not very probable.It is often said that you might kill a monster a million times and never obtain the drop you are looking for. This is true, in fact the probability of not obtaining a drop D with 'droprate' P in a million kills will be (1-P)^1000000. Since 1-P is not zero, this quantity will never be zero, and thus always has a chance of occurring.Edited for clarity.

 

Your mathematics is correct, though it is not what I'm trying to say. Your perspective deals with "what are my chances of getting something in X klills" where mine is what are the chances of getting it in each and every single kill.

you haven't said anything wrong, just it's not valid to my point

This thread is filled with idiots who don't understand what the OP is saying.OP is still wrong. The problem is that barely anyone in this thread understands WHY the OP is wrong.
I registered here just to distinguish the two terms drop "rate" and "chance"I was appalled at many of users responses to the drop rate of a draconic visage thread[now locked]. There were a handful of people who got the terms correctly, but were attacked by ignorant posters making them look like fools (the irony I know). The ignorant posters reasoning however is correct, it's just the terms they have mixed up.Drop rate: The definition of drop rate can be put simply as the monsters you have to kill before receiving the desired item. I.e, there is a linear relationship between amount of desired item and amount of monsters killed. So say if the drop rate of a bronze dagger by a goblin is 1/5[example, not real data]. This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger. It can't be the 1st, 3rd,etc-only the fifth.Drop chance: The definition of this is basically probability. This is the most correct term for the item dropping term chance predicament in that thread. Using the goblin example again, say the drop chance is 20%, Then EACH goblin I kill there is a 20% chance of it dropping the dagger. This chance is used every single goblin that I kill. If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger. I could get 5,4,3,2 ,1 even 0. The 5th kill doesn't guarrantee that I'll get the dagger.So I hope you guys now know the distinction
Besides what I've highlighted in red, the only other big issue I see with the post is the internal inconsistency.
This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger.
If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger.

 

Idiot, that was showing the difference between the two. But nooooo you think im talking about the same concept. If you don't have the capacity to read an understand all of my words, don't post-you'll only be posting ignorant replies.

 

I registered here just to distinguish the two terms drop "rate" and "chance"I was appalled at many of users responses to the drop rate of a draconic visage thread[now locked]. There were a handful of people who got the terms correctly, but were attacked by ignorant posters making them look like fools (the irony I know). The ignorant posters reasoning however is correct, it's just the terms they have mixed up.Drop rate: The definition of drop rate can be put simply as the monsters you have to kill before receiving the desired item. I.e, there is a linear relationship between amount of desired item and amount of monsters killed. So say if the drop rate of a bronze dagger by a goblin is 1/5[example, not real data]. This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger. It can't be the 1st, 3rd,etc-only the fifth.Drop chance: The definition of this is basically probability. This is the most correct term for the item dropping term chance predicament in that thread. Using the goblin example again, say the drop chance is 20%, Then EACH goblin I kill there is a 20% chance of it dropping the dagger. This chance is used every single goblin that I kill. If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger. I could get 5,4,3,2 ,1 even 0. The 5th kill doesn't guarrantee that I'll get the dagger.So I hope you guys now know the distinction
The problem is your definition of drop rate is, to be blunt, wrong. You are the only person on this thread with that definition of drop-rate. It is a definition of drop rate I have never heard of, because I have never played any video game where there is any monster you can kill that drops a particular item once for every X kills, where X is one single integer greater then one. I am not sure where you got this definition from.In any case, the meaning of a word or phrase is the definition most people (of a community) use for that word or phrase.Two last notes:1. I must apologize in advanced, because this probably constitutes flame-bait, but I think the OP might be trolling. Just might. This thread reminds me of a lot of other dumb threads I've read that were created by trolls. To the OP, I apologize if this is not the case.2. This "drop-rate" idea, which currently does not exist in any game that I am aware of, would be a rather nice addition for certain really rare non-tradeable drops, such as champions scrolls.

 

Rates and chance, they are not interchangable "car and automobiles" are interchangable but rates and chance are not like the car analogy. The approx probaility can be derived from stasitics, and then using this probability, they use the probaility to determine the expected rate. The rate is an entirely different thing to probability

 

As someone has posted out, not many people are understanding the ideas i'm expressng. Whether they are too complex or not written in a suitable format or my over use of jargon, I will have no idea. To everyone who says I'm wrong, wait till you learn rates in calculus[rates @ the dot], it will shift your view on rates entirely. Then when you learn probability (or vice-versa, probility first then rates), you will see they are two completely different concepts. One is clearly based on uncertainty and one is based on definite chance (i.e. certain)

 

If you have learnt this in maths and have only recently graduated, shame on you for not understanding such simple ideas. I'm still in my last year of high school and I've basically understood both of them very deeply.

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If I kill X goblins (X -> infinity)

I get X/5 daggers

 

(I could say "if I kill infinite amount of goblins, I will get infinity/5 daggers, but that'd be wrong)

 

This will settle the confusion

 

No, this won't.

Oh dear, i just read this and this confirms that noone can comprehend my posts. This thread can be locked deleted or whatever, I'm done trying to teach people.

 

My low tolerance of ignorance is most likely why I'm not inclined to do teaching @ univeresity.

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If I kill X goblins (X -> infinity)

I get X/5 daggers

 

(I could say "if I kill infinite amount of goblins, I will get infinity/5 daggers, but that'd be wrong)

 

This will settle the confusion

 

No, this won't.

Oh dear, i just read this and this confirms that noone can comprehend my posts. This thread can be locked deleted or whatever, I'm done trying to teach people.

 

My low tolerance of ignorance is most likely why I'm not inclined to do teaching @ univeresity.

I wouldn't want to be taught by an contradicting wrong teacher anyway (Y)

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For the record, I have taken 3 calculus courses as well as statistics in Engineering. Like I said, there is a finite rate at which something occurs and there is the probability at which something can happen, which is often referred to as the rate. You choosing to ignore the context of the word rate when referring to probability shows ignorance.

 

For instance, in Computer Engineering, a common rate for data transmission is known as failure rate, or the rate at which "bad" data is sent/received in a system. This rate is completely based on averages noticed during testing and is not finite. Just because the failure rate is 1 million bits/hour, doesn't mean any any specific hour there has to be 1 million bits that are wrong.

 

There is also failure rate based on the production of integrated circuits, which again, just because the rate is 1% doesn't mean that 1 in ever 100 fail, but rather over millions produced, 1% (roughly) will.

 

So in short, you are partially right in the fact that rate can occur to finite values at which something happen, but you are completely wrong to say that the term rate can only refer to the finite rate at which something happens, because in the context, it is referred to as the probability that the drop occurs. By the way, this is a widely used terms for many many games, so this again just shows your ignorance. Also the fact that you do not have a single person in this thread that completely agrees with what you say should also maybe make you rethink your stance, or maybe do a little research. You seem to stubborn to admit that you are wrong, and would rather just have a mod lock the thread...

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If I kill X goblins (X -> infinity)

I get X/5 daggers

 

(I could say "if I kill infinite amount of goblins, I will get infinity/5 daggers, but that'd be wrong)

 

This will settle the confusion

 

No, this won't.

Oh dear, i just read this and this confirms that noone can comprehend my posts. This thread can be locked deleted or whatever, I'm done trying to teach people.

 

My low tolerance of ignorance is most likely why I'm not inclined to do teaching @ univeresity.

 

 

Your original post makes claims which contradict eachother (or are worded very poorly), so you either do not understand what you are talking about, or you are not good at communicating it.

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Oh dear, i just read this and this confirms that noone can comprehend my posts.

It's not as much a lack of comprehension as it is you contradicting yourself.

 

My low tolerance of ignorance is most likely why I'm not inclined to do teaching @ univeresity.

My low tolerance of ignorance is most likely why I'm inclined to post on this thread. It appears that my attempt to eradicate your ignorance has failed. I'm sorry.

 

Idiot,

Always the best way to start a response.

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Pure semantics, so far as I'm concerned. Every single game I've played that ever had the "X% chance to drop item Y" idea referred to it as drop rate, I've never seen the term drop chance or probability in reference to a video game before.

 

That being said, and slightly more off topic, but quadruple/quintuple posting (and not just using the edit button), plus calling people idiots does not equal a good poster. Use the editor and refrain from insulting people while you try to pound your incorrect comment into our heads, please. Otherwise, you'll just get more flames in return.

 

I don't wish to be insulting, but the fact that he joined 4(?) days ago, and this is the sole topic he's posted in doesn't bode well.

 

Also, definition of semantics (from dictionary.com) :

 

se·man·tics

 

1.

Linguistics .

a.

the study of meaning.

b.

the study of linguistic development by classifying and examining changes in meaning and form.

 

2.

Also called significs. the branch of semiotics dealing with the relations between signs and what they denote.

 

3.

the meaning, or an interpretation of the meaning, of a word, sign, sentence, etc.: Let's not argue about semantics.

 

4.

general semantics.

 

(excuse the butchering of the formatting)

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You people will argue over anything.

 

this

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