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28-Feb-2012 - Squeal of Fortune


Saradomin_Mage
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I'd argue the yellow stuff has a much higher chance, the white is only slightly above yellow, and rare is far below 4% from what I've heard. (Note that lucky AGS can be a rare item, not super rare.) Super rare is far below 1%, too. Using your own 1,400,000 spins, you'd expect 56000 rares and 14000 super rares in the game by now.

 

If i had to make an educated guess I'd go with something like:

 

White = 60%

Yellow = 39.94%

Rare = 0.05%

Super rare = 0.01%

 

This leaves 70 rares and 14 super rares, which sounds about right from the number we've seen.

 

I think this is the best estimation so far. In my experience I have received white and yellow rewards at about the same ratio with a slight preference for the white. Maybe the rares are rarer than what powerfrog suggests but the non rares seem to be right.

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I'd argue the yellow stuff has a much higher chance, the white is only slightly above yellow, and rare is far below 4% from what I've heard. (Note that lucky AGS can be a rare item, not super rare.) Super rare is far below 1%, too. Using your own 1,400,000 spins, you'd expect 56000 rares and 14000 super rares in the game by now.

 

If i had to make an educated guess I'd go with something like:

 

White = 60%

Yellow = 39.94%

Rare = 0.05%

Super rare = 0.01%

 

This leaves 70 rares and 14 super rares, which sounds about right from the number we've seen.

 

I think this is the best estimation so far. In my experience I have received white and yellow rewards at about the same ratio with a slight preference for the white. Maybe the rares are rarer than what powerfrog suggests but the non rares seem to be right.

 

Given that % has to add up to 100 the white and yellows can't be right but the rares needing to be rarer; that would result in unused percentage.

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How come some items are listed as rare, and then the next day are in super rare. I don't think Jagex did a lot of work on this update... It seems rather slack.

 

You'd think the timing of when the player clicks the button would have something to do with the reward... Nope. The items randomly appearing in the wrong groups... Nope. The 100 bugs that came with it... Nope.

 

I understand the reason for this in F2P (Making them buy memberships then and there if they want their spin), but they seriously could have don this a lot better.

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This is because some items are in both categories. It just depends on what you get listed. Certain items seem to *only* be in the super rare slot while most rare items appear in the rare or super rare slot. Effectively working like a chance to put a super rare into the super rare slot otherwise leaving the rare item there.

 

As for spins having to do with the item.. that *would* be bad game design as it would allow some minor predictability which I believe shouldn't be any part of a random wheel of reward items. Should be 100% random.

 

The bugs that came with are regrettable of course. And Jagex could do a lot of things much better.

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Apparently if you get a skull tattoo then you're in for a chance to win lifetime membership.

 

[qfc]254-255-159-63608827[/qfc]

 

Doesn't look very appealing though:

[hide]Skull20Tattoo20heads.jpg[/hide]

 

I rather win some horns:

 

[hide]493px-Horns.jpg[/hide]

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Updates like these make me feel angry, it got nothing to deal with RS.

Last time I was just walking around with a noobaccount and just by walking around I slowly received money :S?

I meen honoustly, this is not the game I once liked any more, not even close actually...

 

I actually hope Jagex will lose a big bunch of players soon because of trash like this, throw all the bullshit overpowered weapons away and go back to 2004 or something.

 

Completely agree. Just useless things to acquire more money by throwing in some ridiculous flashy update.

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Updates like these make me feel angry, it got nothing to deal with RS.

Last time I was just walking around with a noobaccount and just by walking around I slowly received money :S?

I meen honoustly, this is not the game I once liked any more, not even close actually...

 

I actually hope Jagex will lose a big bunch of players soon because of trash like this, throw all the bullshit overpowered weapons away and go back to 2004 or something.

 

Completely agree. Just useless things to acquire more money by throwing in some ridiculous flashy update.

Yeah what kind of business deliberately makes updates with the intention of making money from it?! Oh... Wait... All of them.

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Tbf I don't think its wrong slots at all

 

The slot we are calling 'super rare' is really just the jackpot slot.

It seems all the rare slots share a common 'drop table' with the jackpot slot only picking from the upper reaches of the table & (from what I've seen) the Squeal of Fortune only cosmetic items only appearing in jackpot.

 

Kind like in the table of rewards:

20 - 30 are the rares

30-40 are the cosmetics.

Normal rare slots pick from 20-30

Jackpot slot picks from 25-40

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I got another medium lamp today, up to 6 total? So far I'm getting ~7k xp per day from this, just not always in useful stats :/.

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As time passes more winners come.

 

This might be a totally random thing.

 

Why?

 

Because if it really mattered when you clicked then people could time it or use some trick to click at the right moment.

I know everyone here is smart enough to recognise patterns.

 

The only pattern I can see is that often it hits jackpot then just skips one more and you get 50gp or cabage.

I am too lazy to record my spins and analyze them but im sure people are doing that.

 

Record and slomo blayback with timers and etc.

 

It doesn't say in the rules it's not allowed.

Me and the wise old man go way back.... he was a foolish boy back then.

 

 

My crystal armour idea.

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I like the fact that the poorest players might get a chance to get an 'aristocrat' item but the whole thing just feels like a giant con to me. Especially the part where f2p players seem rigged to get almost good members items and are pretty much coerced into subbing to get it-only to find out that a medium lamp really wasn't the trouble.

Sigh...even more in game advertisements. This is on top of the video ads on logging in, free membership offers, vanity items, endless level up ads (dwarven army axe..), no hiscores, gold spammers everywhere...Jagex should just kill f2p already. Srly.

 

Also, why do lucky items have to look different? Seeing how the lucky dfh look like the corrupt version, even after quite some luck to win it, I can't help but feel that the wearer feels like second class player, which just totally defeats the purpose of having the wheel in the first place. (unless you like more mindless inflation. Hooray inflation! Who needs skilling/diying)

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I can't help but feel that the wearer feels like second class player

 

If they didn't pay for it, no need to make it look like the same item.

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Scamming that goes on between players isn't allowed yet Jagex scamming their players is a different thing.

 

how are Jagex scamming the players?

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A lot of people think that the thing is rigged for f2p to fall on p2p items.

 

Yes it is marketing to make it possible for them to get the items then making them subscribe to claim the item.

No it is not rigged to fall on members items more often in f2p, on my noob i have not gotten a single members item

 

The chance to get a members item is extremely big on this wheel.

Me and the wise old man go way back.... he was a foolish boy back then.

 

 

My crystal armour idea.

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A lot of people think that the thing is rigged for f2p to fall on p2p items.

 

Yes it is marketing to make it possible for them to get the items then making them subscribe to claim the item.

No it is not rigged to fall on members items more often in f2p, on my noob i have not gotten a single members item

 

The chance to get a members item is extremely big on this wheel.

 

How does your single example prove that it's not rigged? Honestly, I would be pretty surprised if it was NOT rigged.

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He's suggesting that there are simply more members only items than f2p items on the wheel. But I disagree, considering the rate at which we land on 50gp, buckets and so on. I believe f2p accounts have a fairly high chance of landing their 1 spin on a members item.

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I think there's a bias to notice p2p items more on f2p accounts, and although it wouldn't surprise me if it were rigged, we have no proof either way so I'll assume the simplest, that is, the wheel is the same for each account.

Supporter of Zaros | Quest Cape owner since 22 may 2010 | No skills below 99 | Total level 2595 | Completionist Cape owner since 17th June 2013 | Suggestions

99 summoning (18th June 2011, previously untrimmed) | 99 farming (14th July 2011) | 99 prayer (8th September 2011) | 99 constitution (10th September 2011) | 99 dungeoneering (15th November 2011)

99 ranged (28th November 2011) | 99 attack, 99 defence, 99 strength (11th December 2011) | 99 slayer (18th December 2011) | 99 magic (22nd December 2011) | 99 construction (16th March 2012)

99 herblore (22nd March 2012) | 99 firemaking (26th March 2012) | 99 cooking (2nd July 2012) | 99 runecrafting (12th March 2012) | 99 crafting (26th August 2012) | 99 agility (19th November 2012)

99 woodcutting (22nd November 2012) | 99 fletching (31st December 2012) | 99 thieving (3rd January 2013) | 99 hunter (11th January 2013) | 99 mining (21st January 2013) | 99 fishing (21st January 2013)

99 smithing (21st January 2013) | 120 dungeoneering (17th June 2013) | 99 divination (24th November 2013)

Tormented demon drops: twenty effigies, nine pairs of claws, two dragon armour slices and one elite clue | Dagannoth king drops: two dragon hatchets, two elite clues, one archer ring and one warrior ring

Glacor drops: four pairs of ragefire boots, one pair of steadfast boots, six effigies, two hundred lots of Armadyl shards, three elite clues | Nex split: Torva boots | Kalphite King split: off-hand drygore mace

30/30 Shattered Heart statues completed | 16/16 Court Cases completed | 25/25 Choc Chimp Ices delivered | 500/500 Vyrewatch burned | 584/584 tasks completed | 4000/4000 chompies hunted

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Agreed. Selection bias, confirmation bias, where we tend to focus only on positive data that supports our pre-believed conclusions.

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