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Envy Moi

The luckiest luck to ever be called luck.

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Hey guys. Haven't been on here in years, however, this lucky luck has made me want to show it off.

 

Before I show you the pics, going by average drop rates, the chance of this is 1/562,500.

 

Without further ado:

 

micq3n.png

 

 

4pdso.png

 

 

Of course it's not a sigil, but the extremely low chance of this happening had me shocked.

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Wow. That's impressive.

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More than a pernix body split.

Just saying. Grats!


6Ij0n.jpg

In real life MMO you don't get 99 smithing by making endless bronze daggers.

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Chance of this happening is equal to the drop rate of steads ;). Congratulations :D.


Supporter of Zaros | Quest Cape owner since 22 may 2010 | No skills below 99 | Total level 2595 | Completionist Cape owner since 17th June 2013 | Suggestions

99 summoning (18th June 2011, previously untrimmed) | 99 farming (14th July 2011) | 99 prayer (8th September 2011) | 99 constitution (10th September 2011) | 99 dungeoneering (15th November 2011)

99 ranged (28th November 2011) | 99 attack, 99 defence, 99 strength (11th December 2011) | 99 slayer (18th December 2011) | 99 magic (22nd December 2011) | 99 construction (16th March 2012)

99 herblore (22nd March 2012) | 99 firemaking (26th March 2012) | 99 cooking (2nd July 2012) | 99 runecrafting (12th March 2012) | 99 crafting (26th August 2012) | 99 agility (19th November 2012)

99 woodcutting (22nd November 2012) | 99 fletching (31st December 2012) | 99 thieving (3rd January 2013) | 99 hunter (11th January 2013) | 99 mining (21st January 2013) | 99 fishing (21st January 2013)

99 smithing (21st January 2013) | 120 dungeoneering (17th June 2013) | 99 divination (24th November 2013)

Tormented demon drops: twenty effigies, nine pairs of claws, two dragon armour slices and one elite clue | Dagannoth king drops: two dragon hatchets, two elite clues, one archer ring and one warrior ring

Glacor drops: four pairs of ragefire boots, one pair of steadfast boots, six effigies, two hundred lots of Armadyl shards, three elite clues | Nex split: Torva boots | Kalphite King split: off-hand drygore mace

30/30 Shattered Heart statues completed | 16/16 Court Cases completed | 25/25 Choc Chimp Ices delivered | 500/500 Vyrewatch burned | 584/584 tasks completed | 4000/4000 chompies hunted

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Thanks haha. Definitely lucky.

 

Think I'm gonna try my luck at corp, haven't been there since before gano.

 

It's not quy. To figure out probability of two events happening back to back you have to multiply the chances. Chance of any boot at glacors is 1/250, making the chance of getting steads 1/750. Multiply 750*750 = 562,500.

 

I'm also sure I am one of few who have done this since the release. If not the first, proving that the chance of B2B steads is far from 1/750.

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The chances of getting b2b steads if you kill two glacors now are steadfast drop rate squared, sure. But in general, the chances of getting a second pair of steadfast boots after the first, is equal to the drop rate (e.g. 1/750 using your numbers). 1 in every 750 steadfast boot drops is followed by another steads drop.


Supporter of Zaros | Quest Cape owner since 22 may 2010 | No skills below 99 | Total level 2595 | Completionist Cape owner since 17th June 2013 | Suggestions

99 summoning (18th June 2011, previously untrimmed) | 99 farming (14th July 2011) | 99 prayer (8th September 2011) | 99 constitution (10th September 2011) | 99 dungeoneering (15th November 2011)

99 ranged (28th November 2011) | 99 attack, 99 defence, 99 strength (11th December 2011) | 99 slayer (18th December 2011) | 99 magic (22nd December 2011) | 99 construction (16th March 2012)

99 herblore (22nd March 2012) | 99 firemaking (26th March 2012) | 99 cooking (2nd July 2012) | 99 runecrafting (12th March 2012) | 99 crafting (26th August 2012) | 99 agility (19th November 2012)

99 woodcutting (22nd November 2012) | 99 fletching (31st December 2012) | 99 thieving (3rd January 2013) | 99 hunter (11th January 2013) | 99 mining (21st January 2013) | 99 fishing (21st January 2013)

99 smithing (21st January 2013) | 120 dungeoneering (17th June 2013) | 99 divination (24th November 2013)

Tormented demon drops: twenty effigies, nine pairs of claws, two dragon armour slices and one elite clue | Dagannoth king drops: two dragon hatchets, two elite clues, one archer ring and one warrior ring

Glacor drops: four pairs of ragefire boots, one pair of steadfast boots, six effigies, two hundred lots of Armadyl shards, three elite clues | Nex split: Torva boots | Kalphite King split: off-hand drygore mace

30/30 Shattered Heart statues completed | 16/16 Court Cases completed | 25/25 Choc Chimp Ices delivered | 500/500 Vyrewatch burned | 584/584 tasks completed | 4000/4000 chompies hunted

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We aren't debating the chance of steads here though :P

 

We are debating the chance of back to back steads.

 

Same as flipping a coin. 1/2 chance it'll be heads, 1/2 chance it'll be heads again. Now you have to multiply meaning 1/4 chance of it being heads twice in a row.

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Saw my cousin get b2b visage. its just totally random, and as threadstarter says, the chance is really very small!


My lame drops:
6 Effigys
1 D Med - 1 D Dagger
1 Verac's Helmet - 1 Guthan's Platebody

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Saw my cousin get b2b visage. its just totally random, and as threadstarter says, the chance is really very small!

 

Well I'll be damned if that's true haha. That would be 10x rarer than my b2b steads. About 1/5,625,000

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As true as I am lazy ;)

 

I'm really lazy :s


My lame drops:
6 Effigys
1 D Med - 1 D Dagger
1 Verac's Helmet - 1 Guthan's Platebody

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niceee :thumbsup:

quick question, how do i get to adventurer log center like that?


iOwn.... (kinda)

2 year old account, Hoping to max before 3-year mark.
rilo_kiley.png

Drops - LOTS! =P

1500 total, 2000 total, 2200 total, 2400 total, 2496 total, 2595 total.

99s in order: 99 herblore, 99 firemaking, 99 cooking, 99 strength, 99 Constitution, 99 Attack, 99 ranged, 99 dungeoneering, 99 summoning, 99 fletching,

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Thanks haha. Definitely lucky.

 

Think I'm gonna try my luck at corp, haven't been there since before gano.

 

It's not quy. To figure out probability of two events happening back to back you have to multiply the chances. Chance of any boot at glacors is 1/250, making the chance of getting steads 1/750. Multiply 750*750 = 562,500.

 

I'm also sure I am one of few who have done this since the release. If not the first, proving that the chance of B2B steads is far from 1/750.

 

well it depends on what perspective you look at it, any statistician /applied mathematics professor will tell you its the same chance of getting steads once is same as getting them b2b due to the nature of "TRUE RANDOMNESS." But if you ask another mathematics professor in the discipline of algebra/trigonometry/calculus etc... they will tell you its either [the chances of getting a steadfast boots]^2 or [the chances of getting a steadfast boots]X2,

 

so in a way your both right, it just depends on what perspective you have and which kind of professional you ask :P


iOwn.... (kinda)

2 year old account, Hoping to max before 3-year mark.
rilo_kiley.png

Drops - LOTS! =P

1500 total, 2000 total, 2200 total, 2400 total, 2496 total, 2595 total.

99s in order: 99 herblore, 99 firemaking, 99 cooking, 99 strength, 99 Constitution, 99 Attack, 99 ranged, 99 dungeoneering, 99 summoning, 99 fletching,

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Thanks haha. Definitely lucky.

 

Think I'm gonna try my luck at corp, haven't been there since before gano.

 

It's not quy. To figure out probability of two events happening back to back you have to multiply the chances. Chance of any boot at glacors is 1/250, making the chance of getting steads 1/750. Multiply 750*750 = 562,500.

 

I'm also sure I am one of few who have done this since the release. If not the first, proving that the chance of B2B steads is far from 1/750.

 

well it depends on what perspective you look at it, any statistician /applied mathematics professor will tell you its the same chance of getting steads once is same as getting them b2b due to the nature of "TRUE RANDOMNESS." But if you ask another mathematics professor in the discipline of algebra/trigonometry/calculus etc... they will tell you its either [the chances of getting a steadfast boots]^2 or [the chances of getting a steadfast boots]X2,

 

so in a way your both right, it just depends on what perspective you have and which kind of professional you ask :P

 

Point here is though, if it was chance of steads x2 or just the chance of steads, then I'd have b2b steads 3 times already :P I have not found any evidence/claims of this posted ANYWHERE and I've searched trying to see if anyone has claimed it yet. Leads me to believe I am the first to do it and that it is much more rare than that.

 

By the way, I use swiftkit, that is swiftkit's adventure log center.

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Thanks haha. Definitely lucky.

 

Think I'm gonna try my luck at corp, haven't been there since before gano.

 

It's not quy. To figure out probability of two events happening back to back you have to multiply the chances. Chance of any boot at glacors is 1/250, making the chance of getting steads 1/750. Multiply 750*750 = 562,500.

 

I'm also sure I am one of few who have done this since the release. If not the first, proving that the chance of B2B steads is far from 1/750.

 

well it depends on what perspective you look at it, any statistician /applied mathematics professor will tell you its the same chance of getting steads once is same as getting them b2b due to the nature of "TRUE RANDOMNESS." But if you ask another mathematics professor in the discipline of algebra/trigonometry/calculus etc... they will tell you its either [the chances of getting a steadfast boots]^2 or [the chances of getting a steadfast boots]X2,

 

so in a way your both right, it just depends on what perspective you have and which kind of professional you ask :P

 

Point here is though, if it was chance of steads x2 or just the chance of steads, then I'd have b2b steads 3 times already :P I have not found any evidence/claims of this posted ANYWHERE and I've searched trying to see if anyone has claimed it yet. Leads me to believe I am the first to do it and that it is much more rare than that.

 

By the way, I use swiftkit, that is swiftkit's adventure log center.

 

 

Ehh the chances of getting a pair of steads on kill x+1 GIVEN that you already have gotten one on kill x is the same as chances of getting one on any kill since drops are independent from each other. What quy is saying is that over a large sample on the kills AFTER you already get a pair of steads, roughly 1/750 of the time you will have another pair of steads, and thus, B2B steads.


Stormy_Day.png


atMEj.png

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Thanks haha. Definitely lucky.

 

Think I'm gonna try my luck at corp, haven't been there since before gano.

 

It's not quy. To figure out probability of two events happening back to back you have to multiply the chances. Chance of any boot at glacors is 1/250, making the chance of getting steads 1/750. Multiply 750*750 = 562,500.

 

I'm also sure I am one of few who have done this since the release. If not the first, proving that the chance of B2B steads is far from 1/750.

 

well it depends on what perspective you look at it, any statistician /applied mathematics professor will tell you its the same chance of getting steads once is same as getting them b2b due to the nature of "TRUE RANDOMNESS." But if you ask another mathematics professor in the discipline of algebra/trigonometry/calculus etc... they will tell you its either [the chances of getting a steadfast boots]^2 or [the chances of getting a steadfast boots]X2,

 

so in a way your both right, it just depends on what perspective you have and which kind of professional you ask :P

 

Point here is though, if it was chance of steads x2 or just the chance of steads, then I'd have b2b steads 3 times already :P I have not found any evidence/claims of this posted ANYWHERE and I've searched trying to see if anyone has claimed it yet. Leads me to believe I am the first to do it and that it is much more rare than that.

 

By the way, I use swiftkit, that is swiftkit's adventure log center.

 

 

Ehh the chances of getting a pair of steads on kill x+1 GIVEN that you already have gotten one on kill x is the same as chances of getting one on any kill since drops are independent from each other. What quy is saying is that over a large sample on the kills AFTER you already get a pair of steads, roughly 1/750 of the time you will have another pair of steads, and thus, B2B steads.

 

Okay, cool. The chance is of back to back is still the square of the odds of one pair.

 

Very nice drops.


Mik2thekel.png

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I think it's the definition of the term that is confusing some of you. Some of you take the term "back to back" as a conditional probability such as letting the event A be the glacor dropping a steadfast boost. Now P(A|A) which is the probability that an event A will happen given the event A has already happened is equal to P(A) if A is independent which we assume is. However the other people understand "back to back" as two in a row which is simply P(A)*P(A), it just depends on how you define "back to back". It could be used either way honestly.

 

Anyways I've killed a bit of them myself but gotten really bored of them since they don't want to drop me anything. Nice drops :D


Laplacian.png

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Why are we even debating drop chance and stuff? He got really lucky. That's all there is to it.

 

OT: Congrats dude, that's crazy!

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