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Squeal of Fortune "Updates" was: Spin Results (970 spins)


NukeMarine
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The only concern I would have with this kind of data collection (aside from rate changes occuring frequently) would be the fact that your spin is also dictated by where the wheel is when you push the button.

 

To make the data accurate you would have to press the button at the same spot on the wheel every time, which could be very difficult.

Has this been proven? I thought it was more like monster drops, it just picks one. You do know that the animation is just for show, right? :P

 

[email protected], Red text is annoying to read with the deflection theme on a Kindle. :sad:

It's been confirmed that the spin animation has nothing to do with the result. Else people would figure out how to beat the system and win rares more often.

It has been done in the first few hours of release, actually.

It was possible to click the button a second time and you would win whatever was highlighted when you clicked it a second time.

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I am tired of removing posts from this topic. Adequate warning has been given twice from an administrator to not post if you have nothing constructive to add. Those choosing to persist in ignoring these warnings will have their posting privileges suspended. Grow up.

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True, Muggi, I was actually being sarcastic with one of those... (hint, its the one in quotes :P)

 

TBSH;

I've found that spins on F2P have VERY different results than those on P2P... Much more "rare members-only items" are hit on F2P... Which is why you cannot spin there as a member and have to switch servers...

Bought spins seem to have different results than non bought spins as well, although the margins on that are only a few percent points...

 

Not sure if earned spins are generating different results than daily-free spins...

 

Conclusion: we know the wheel is not only misrepresenting the odds, but is rigged as well... I would just love to see how loaded the dice are on each side and maybe find out the reasoming behind it...

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So 900 spins and one very rare... GF Jagex at increasing the odds. Make 1000gp and useless rewards insanely common and those rare and very rare rewards almost impossible to get. Wish we could send this to every runescape player so they can realize they will probably never get the item they are buying spins for. Thanks for posting this, never realized it was that ridiculously unbalanced. I bought $20 worth of spins just because I wanted the lamps for DG since i despise the skill, got like 120k exp. Never doing that again.

 

They might as well just go ahead and release a cash shop. Thats basically what they are doing. What is the going rate? Like $.50 or something( seems so from others post). If they charged that they would make so much money and wouldn't have to troll us like they are currently doing.

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I'll throw my personal opinion straight out there to begin with, as a maxed player and long time veteran I hate the wheel and much of the whole change Jagex has been experiencing. But never the less I don't mind reading interesting topics on near anything and I enjoyed looking at the data you presented. I usually choose not to post as much of what I could say has already been said before hand, but I think you deserve a "thanks" for the post. Especially since it seems you've gotten heavy flame from the community around here o.o.

 

Data collection, normally on anything, sucks. Especially on the wheel where you can spam click a red button and be done with it. I'm sure there can be a drawn out discussion on motives (but Randox has made it clear twice the conversation is over), but no matter the motives NukeMarine took his time to collect data and post it and a little gratitude for someone's time and effort is important.

 

Honestly I was more interested in seeing the Dragon Ceremonial and Queens Guard you got :P. Been really wanting the ceremonial set from spins straight from skilling and seems you got it pretty easily. I also think it is interesting you didn't get any rare or epic items that weren't "themed" items, such as lucky items, swag items, etc. Seems there rate has been dramatically reduced in place of the new themed items and by your data the reduction is much larger then I would expect.

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I've found that spins on F2P have VERY different results than those on P2P... Much more "rare members-only items" are hit on F2P... Which is why you cannot spin there as a member and have to switch servers...

Bought spins seem to have different results than non bought spins as well, although the margins on that are only a few percent points...

Are you sure that this doesn't have to do with volume? 75 spins is about a month's worth of free spins, and people seem to buy larger 'packs' than that. Also not sure about the F2P one, people have been saying that since the third or fourth day of the update and I'm not sure if it's ever been seriously tested or recorded.

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Why not wait to gather your data when the fish masks didn't have an increased chance of obtaining them. How Jagex initially thought how common these false rares needed to be in order to be successful would have been very intriguing.

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I've found that spins on F2P have VERY different results than those on P2P... Much more "rare members-only items" are hit on F2P... Which is why you cannot spin there as a member and have to switch servers...

Bought spins seem to have different results than non bought spins as well, although the margins on that are only a few percent points...

Are you sure that this doesn't have to do with volume? 75 spins is about a month's worth of free spins, and people seem to buy larger 'packs' than that. Also not sure about the F2P one, people have been saying that since the third or fourth day of the update and I'm not sure if it's ever been seriously tested or recorded.

 

I'd be interested in seeing f2p spin tests as well. I think it could be decently difficult to test though. To begin you'd have to feed the addict, meaning actually purchase spins :P (addict being Jagex to money, incase that left a few people scratching their heads). But furthermore, wouldn't the person have to keep discarding members items to continue the test in f2p? I think that could be a bit heart breaking, and fully equate to a waste of money :P, unless I'm mistaking and you can stockpile items to claim.

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I have something to say. Does anyone else find it strange that you can now use real life money to buy experience point?

 

You don't always get lamps, but they are pretty common. So by using real life money to buy spins, you can buy experience points as well.

 

I know Jagex is denying that buying spins with real money counts as real world trading, but that's exactly what I see it as.

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I have something to say. Does anyone else find it strange that you can now use real life money to buy experience point?

 

You don't always get lamps, but they are pretty common. So by using real life money to buy spins, you can buy experience points as well.

 

I know Jagex is denying that buying spins with real money counts as real world trading, but that's exactly what I see it as.

no i dont find it strange

i feel that rwt is good for the economy and encourages the playerbase to continuing playing, thus keeping the game alive

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Guess I shouldn't make posts like this prior to going to bed. So, on to the main replies.

 

Disposable Time vs Disposable Income This topic could be it's on Tip.It Times article. Most common comment has been how money was wasted. To each reply, it's very easy to say "Well, how many hours did you waste playing a pointless part of the game?", however let's be a bit more reasonable. People will value time and money differently depending on their situation. To a high school or college student with no extra curricular duties or jobs, time might easy to come by while money comes at a premium. Such person seems to have strong opinions on how other people spend their money, but are more forgiving toward a guy that spent hundreds of hours on first person shooter. To an adult in an established career, free time holds much greater value as 40 to 60 hours out of the week has to go to their jobs. So while they consider paying $60 for a copy of StarCraft as an impulse buy, taking a couple hours a night to play the game would be an extravegance they could not afford. Put it this way, I cringe when someone matter of factly says "It only takes a couple of weeks to get 99 in x skill" without even considering the number of hours that actually takes.

 

How valuable is time though? Put it this way, part of my hobby is teaching people how to learn Japanese or get physically fit with limited time. To reach a functional level of Japanese literacy and fluency requires an active time investment of 300 to 500 hours. That's 2 hours a day for 5 to 8 months or 8 hours a day for 2 to 3 months. Similar amount of time investment is required for functional physical fitness such as CrossFit teaches. Knowing this, I could say anyone that built up over 5000 hours on video games has wasted their precious time when they could be learning more functional skills. However, who the hell am I to tell others what quality to put in their lives? About the same as others try to tell me what to do with money.

 

Data Was Already There or Outdate Second most common reply and a reasonable one. I'd argue the data may have been out there, but it was haphazardly submitted and of questionable value. Most I saw on YouTube or RSOF did an item by item list which is tedious to wade through to get useful data. I just did tick marks on the common value, counted up the lamps (in addition if they're free choice), and number of free spins. I then let the items collect in my bank to get the results. It's still time consuming and likely more than most will be willing to do. Now, I could try to herd cats by getting a dozen or so volunteers doing daily tallies, but efforts in the past on other projects show this is limited in success.

 

As for the data being outdated, that's likely the case. On Runescape Wikia, someone posted a 900+ result that showed 12 rare hits. At 600 spins, I had only received 2 rares while the last 300 netted 7 rares. Seems obvious Jagex is rigged the results to get players the Queen outfit (listed as uncommon) when a rare result should have showed. That said, comparing the wiki post means the ratio of Common to Uncommon is consistant. Jagex will rig the Rare and Very Rare. Even then, I'd say it's naive if not moronic to pay for spins for anything that's on the rare or very rare spots. With chances in the 1/7500 or lower range, someone would need to drop $2000+ to even see a reasonable chance appear.

 

Waste of time I could agree here. Then again, I've made lots of submissions to Tip.It about all sorts of activities. Once the data is out there and in an easy to understand format, there's less question on the matter. When you know drop rates or xp rates for a given monster or tactic, then it's just a matter of telling a player "Do X and you'll get Y in Z number of hours". Yes, nobody really needs a map of the maze random event, but I made one anyway way back when. Nobody really needed to know the results of MTK but that turned out to very very useful data once it was put out there.

 

Honestly, I did not like putting extra money toward this event. I've only had this one character since 2003 which in total is maybe $500 in membership fees. There's been no burning desire to bot, buy gp or share the account. This has been the only shift from that. Still, I think it's good data. Hopefully no one looking at this data will call this gambling or try to use it as a chance to win something on the rare slots. The only thing I can reasonably call SoF is XP buying, and lousy XP at that. Just stick to free spins, shake your head at the money grab attempts by the new Jagex, and enjoy the game.

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So 900 spins and one very rare... GF Jagex at increasing the odds. Make 1000gp and useless rewards insanely common and those rare and very rare rewards almost impossible to get. Wish we could send this to every runescape player so they can realize they will probably never get the item they are buying spins for. Thanks for posting this, never realized it was that ridiculously unbalanced. I bought $20 worth of spins just because I wanted the lamps for DG since i despise the skill, got like 120k exp. Never doing that again.

 

They might as well just go ahead and release a cash shop. Thats basically what they are doing. What is the going rate? Like $.50 or something( seems so from others post). If they charged that they would make so much money and wouldn't have to troll us like they are currently doing.

 

They'd have to charge much more. if gold were buyable, EVERYTHING would rocket in value.

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such a waste of money

 

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Ragnos, I have a few quesions for you and to anyone else that only looks at the dollar amount in all this:

 

1. How much is an hour of your time in real life worth in a dollar amount?

2. How many hours of your time in real life have you spent on your character?

3. What is the product of 1 and 2 in US dollars?

4. Do you consider you've wasted that much potential money on your fantasy character?

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^ The problem is, even you want to work as much as you can, you cant find an employer that would have enough work/ bold enough to ignore labour laws to hire you to do so.

Its called under-employment (or at least, part of it).

 

I have something to say. Does anyone else find it strange that you can now use real life money to buy experience point?

 

You don't always get lamps, but they are pretty common. So by using real life money to buy spins, you can buy experience points as well.

 

I know Jagex is denying that buying spins with real money counts as real world trading, but that's exactly what I see it as.

 

A china site would be alot cheaper, given the rate now, but doing in Jagex's way removes the risk of getting banned.

If you have spare money and want to spend it on RS, the SoF is certainly the way to go.

Its just that they are marketing it too aggressively that is not needed and constantly grabs unwanted attention.

 

Anyways, thanks for the $200 worth of data.

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4. Do you consider you've wasted that much potential money on your fantasy character?

We've gone over this question countless times on TIF. The overwhelming response is no. Other than a few people who play RS full-time, Runescape is pretty much solely a 'time filler' that people play when they're bored or have nothing else to do. While working IRL for minimum wage would be a lot more productive, there aren't many jobs that you can do in the times that a lot of people play RS (ie: a little before school, during breaks, late night, etc).

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4. Do you consider you've wasted that much potential money on your fantasy character?

We've gone over this question countless times on TIF. The overwhelming response is no. Other than a few people who play RS full-time, Runescape is pretty much solely a 'time filler' that people play when they're bored or have nothing else to do. While working IRL for minimum wage would be a lot more productive, there aren't many jobs that you can do in the times that a lot of people play RS (ie: a little before school, during breaks, late night, etc).

 

Theoretically. But that doesn't mean the TIME spent couldn't have been used to gain skills that would make you more marketable in the future, thus increasing potential money from an employer. The "potential" money doesn't have to be earned at the same time as the time already spent on RS. For example, learn Arabic, and you become a lot more marketable to intelligence agencies in the U.S. Etc etc. There is still a corollary.

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[hide=Drops]Araxxor Eye x1 Leg pieces x2
GWD: 5000 Addy bar Steam B Staff x3 Z Spear x6 Sara. Hilt x2 Bandos Hilt x2 (LS, Solo)SS x6 (1 LS)
Tormented Demons: Shard x6 Slice x5 Claws x9 Limbs x3
DKS: Archer x21 Warrior x31 Berserker x30 Axe x51[/hide]

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4. Do you consider you've wasted that much potential money on your fantasy character?

We've gone over this question countless times on TIF. The overwhelming response is no. Other than a few people who play RS full-time, Runescape is pretty much solely a 'time filler' that people play when they're bored or have nothing else to do. While working IRL for minimum wage would be a lot more productive, there aren't many jobs that you can do in the times that a lot of people play RS (ie: a little before school, during breaks, late night, etc).

 

Theoretically. But that doesn't mean the TIME spent couldn't have been used to gain skills that would make you more marketable in the future, thus increasing potential money from an employer. The "potential" money doesn't have to be earned at the same time as the time already spent on RS. For example, learn Arabic, and you become a lot more marketable to intelligence agencies in the U.S. Etc etc. There is still a corollary.

 

Yes, but that is the fundamental flaw of the opportunity cost of idle labour.

I dont even know why they still put that on textbooks, so you can find it wrong afterwards.

Besides, even if you can find work, the wage rate would not be the same as your day rate.

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4. Do you consider you've wasted that much potential money on your fantasy character?

We've gone over this question countless times on TIF. The overwhelming response is no. Other than a few people who play RS full-time, Runescape is pretty much solely a 'time filler' that people play when they're bored or have nothing else to do. While working IRL for minimum wage would be a lot more productive, there aren't many jobs that you can do in the times that a lot of people play RS (ie: a little before school, during breaks, late night, etc).

Number four means nothing if you don't provide numbers one through three to put it in perspective. I would don't agree with the 'time filler' nor with the nothing to do. I don't play RS when I'm bored, I play RS because it's fun. I'm limited by how much I can play RS by other commitments in my life. It's not arrogant to expect that of other people. They do have other things they could do, but they're choosing RS for whatever reasons.

 

Now, why did I ask for a dollar amount? Because value of time can be vague. Some don't think it's worth much while others strongly protect their time. With a dollar value, you can put counter arguments on how people spend their time as much as people have posted about how I and others spend money. Have I wasted the thousands of hours I spent on exercise or studying because I didn't earn money during that time? I'd say no as that time was still invested in something that is showing returns even today. I don't consider the thousands of hours spent on RS to be a complete waste as for the most part it's provided cheap entertainment in addition to random things that actually helped how I approached my career (little tip for success, use everything you learn even in games to your advantage).

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4. Do you consider you've wasted that much potential money on your fantasy character?

We've gone over this question countless times on TIF. The overwhelming response is no. Other than a few people who play RS full-time, Runescape is pretty much solely a 'time filler' that people play when they're bored or have nothing else to do. While working IRL for minimum wage would be a lot more productive, there aren't many jobs that you can do in the times that a lot of people play RS (ie: a little before school, during breaks, late night, etc).

Number four means nothing if you don't provide numbers one through three to put it in perspective. I would don't agree with the 'time filler' nor with the nothing to do. I don't play RS when I'm bored, I play RS because it's fun. I'm limited by how much I can play RS by other commitments in my life. It's not arrogant to expect that of other people. They do have other things they could do, but they're choosing RS for whatever reasons.

 

Now, why did I ask for a dollar amount? Because value of time can be vague. Some don't think it's worth much while others strongly protect their time. With a dollar value, you can put counter arguments on how people spend their time as much as people have posted about how I and others spend money. Have I wasted the thousands of hours I spent on exercise or studying because I didn't earn money during that time? I'd say no as that time was still invested in something that is showing returns even today. I don't consider the thousands of hours spent on RS to be a complete waste as for the most part it's provided cheap entertainment in addition to random things that actually helped how I approached my career (little tip for success, use everything you learn even in games to your advantage).

 

Studying (or education in general) and exercise increase your value of labour power, which may (or maynot) increase your future output, so thats technically not a waste.

Playing video game however doesnt seem to do the same, so we can only say it is consumer spending.

Just saying, people can use that argument on almost every luxury, since there is always a more economic alternative. Being worth it has nothing to do with the dollar value.

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You can compare his results to this guy's here. [qfc]15-16-815-63778116[/qfc]

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Never gonna give you up.[/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide][/hide]

"We don't want players to be able to buy their way to success in RuneScape. If we let players start doing this, it devalues RuneScape for others. We feel your status in real-life shouldn't affect your ability to be successful in RuneScape" Jagex 01/04/01 - 02/03/12

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