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Runespan Data: Siphon Success Rate

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Data collection complete for now. Questions, comments, suggestions welcome.

 

I recently decided to test out some siphon rates at Runespan. These rates are with 92 Runecrafting, probably applicable from 90-95, and hopefully still interesting otherwise. When siphoning a node, a siphon attempt is made every two ticks. This attempt results in a fail (either 0 or 2.0 xp) or a success (xp depends on node). Undead Souls, Bloody Skulls, and Nebulas (Nebulae?), along with other, lower, nodes, have two possible runes, leading to three possible results (fail, rune 1, rune 2).

 

When collecting data, I did not differentiate between a 0 xp and a 2 xp fail. For this reason, when doing the math, I assumed all fails result in 1 xp, without any data whatsoever to back it up.

 

[spoiler=Data]

Node Name

 

A attempts, F fails, R runes.

F/A% chance of a fail, R/A% chance of an X xp siphon.

(F/A)(1 xp per fail) + (R/A)(X xp per siphon) = Y xp/attempt -> Y(60/1.2) = approximate xp/min

 

Undead Soul

 

Req level 95

 

Living Soul

 

1064 attempts, 868 fails, 196 Soul runes.

81.58% chance of a fail, 18.42% chance of a 213 xp siphon.

40.05 xp/attempt -> ~2002.5 xp/min

 

Bloody Skulls

 

1168 attempts, 873 fails, 164 Death runes, 131 Blood runes.

74.74% chance of a fail, 14.04% chance of a 144 xp siphon, 11.22% chance of a 175.5 xp siphon.

40.66 xp/attempt -> ~2033 xp/min

 

Blood Pool

 

1059 attempts, 832 fails, 227 Blood runes.

78.56% chance of a fail, 21.44% chance of a 146.3 xp siphon.

32.15 xp/attempt -> ~1607.6 xp/min

 

Skulls

 

828 attempts, 597 fails, 231 Death runes.

72.10% chance of a fail, 27.90% chance of a 120 xp siphon.

34.20 xp/attempt -> ~1710.1 xp/min

 

Jumper

 

1200 attempts, 805 fails, 395 Law runes.

67.08% chance of a fail, 32.92% chance of a 107.8 xp siphon.

36.16 xp/attempt -> ~1807.9 xp/min

 

Shifter

 

995 attempts, 606 fails, 389 Nature runes.

60.90% chance of a fail, 39.10% chance of an 86.8 xp siphon.

34.55 xp/attempt -> ~1727.4 xp/min

 

Nebula

 

963 attempts, 450 fails, 277 Cosmic runes, 236 Astral runes.

46.73% chance of a fail, 28.76% chance of a 63.8 xp siphon, 24.51% chance of an 85.6 xp siphon.

39.80 xp/attempt -> ~1989.8 xp/min

 

Chaotic Cloud

 

856 attempts, 453 fails, 403 Chaos runes.

52.92% chance of a fail, 47.08% chance of a 61.6 xp siphon.

29.53 xp/attempt -> ~1476.5 xp/min

 

 

The Lineup (92 Runecrafting):

 

Bloody Skulls: 40.66 xp/attempt

Living Soul: 40.05 xp/attempt

Nebula: 39.80 xp/attempt

Jumper: 36.16 xp/attempt

Shifter: 34.55 xp/attempt

Skulls: 34.20 xp/attempt

Blood Pool: 32.15 xp/attempt

Chaotic Cloud: 29.53 xp/attempt

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I love that warm, fuzzy feeling I get when I see hit/miss data

 

Living Soul

16.5-20.3% Accuracy

Bloody Skull

23.1-27.3% Accuracy
50.8-60.4% Death
39.6-49.1% Blood

Blood Pool

19.4-23.5% Accuracy

Shifter

58.3-63.4% Accuracy

Nebula

50.6-55.9% Accuracy
50.3-57.6% Cosmic
42.4-49.6% Astral

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Seeing as I'm probably gonna live at span for rest of month, I might do some testing for level 80-85 on Nebulae/Shifters. Would it be viable to just type numbers to record data? Nothing or 2xp:1 , 65 xp:2 , and 86xp:3? Same for shifters with 1s and 2s


yqe0mrU.jpg

^^My blog of EoC PvM, lols and Therapy.^^

My livestream- Currently: Offline :(

Offical Harpy Therapist of the Mad

[hide=Lewtations]

Barrows drops: Dharok's helm x2, Guthan's helm, Ahrim's top, Hood and skirt, Torag's hammers, Karils skirt, Karil's top, Torag's helm, Verac's skirt, Verac's Flail, Dharok's Platebody.

Dag kings drops: Lost count! :wall:

4k+ Glacors, 7 Ragefires, 4 Steadfasts, 4 Glaivens, 400+ shards![/hide]

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You can type 1 for a hit and 0 for a miss. If you need a tool to help you record, I can sort you out.

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You can type 1 for a hit and 0 for a miss. If you need a tool to help you record, I can sort you out.

Easy enough to just have a few word files open, can just search the doc for 0s 1s 2s etc when done.


yqe0mrU.jpg

^^My blog of EoC PvM, lols and Therapy.^^

My livestream- Currently: Offline :(

Offical Harpy Therapist of the Mad

[hide=Lewtations]

Barrows drops: Dharok's helm x2, Guthan's helm, Ahrim's top, Hood and skirt, Torag's hammers, Karils skirt, Karil's top, Torag's helm, Verac's skirt, Verac's Flail, Dharok's Platebody.

Dag kings drops: Lost count! :wall:

4k+ Glacors, 7 Ragefires, 4 Steadfasts, 4 Glaivens, 400+ shards![/hide]

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You can type 1 for a hit and 0 for a miss. If you need a tool to help you record, I can sort you out.

Easy enough to just have a few word files open, can just search the doc for 0s 1s 2s etc when done.

That's what I did, it works :smile:

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Updated with Skulls, Jumpers, Chaotic Clouds. That's all the data I'll be collecting for now.

 

And intervals for those, since the skulls and clouds were smaller sample sizes, 90% confidence:

 

Skulls: 25.3-30.5% accuracy

Jumper: 30.7-34.9& accuracy

Chaotic Clouds: 44.2-49.8% accuracy

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I've got some Runespan data lying around, it's miss/rune data based off siphoning individual nodes.

 

undead soul
zero    78
death    13
soul    7

undead soul
zero    115
death    20
soul    10

bloody skulls
zero    78
death    11
blood    17

living soul
zero    85
soul    18

undead soul
zero    57
death    7
soul    4

bloody skulls
zero    78
death    12
blood    15


undead soul
zero    116
death    21
soul    16

bloody skulls
zero    103
death    23
blood    11

bloody skulls
zero    102
death    20
blood    16

bloody skulls
zero    67
death    17
blood    7

blood pool
zero    47
blood    11

undead soul
zero    152
death    21
soul    23

 

Probably not that big enough to be useful, eh, but still a bit.


6Ij0n.jpg

In real life MMO you don't get 99 smithing by making endless bronze daggers.

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Okay, here's some data on Nebula at level 80:

[hide=%ages to come in a sec]

1=Miss/2xp, 2=Cosmic Rune, 3=Astral Rune

2-2-2-1-2-1-2-1-3-1-3-3-1-2-1-1-3-3-2-2-3-3-2-2-3-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-1-2-1-2-2-1-2-3-3-1-3-3-2-1-2-1-1-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-2-1-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-2-3-2-3-1-1-2-1-2-2-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-1-2-2-3-1-2-2-3-3-2-1-2-1-1-2-2-1-3-3-3-3-3-2-1-1-1-2-1-2-2-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-1-3-3-1-3-2-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-3-3-3-2-1-1-3-1-3-2-1-1-2-1-3-3-2-1-1-3-1-2-1-3-1-3-2-2-1-3-1-2-3-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-3-2-1-1-1-1-1-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-3-1-1-1-3-1-1-3-1-2-1-3-3-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-2-3-1-2-1-3-1-2-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-1-3-1-1-3-2-1-1-2-3-2-1-2-1-1-1-1-3-1-3-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-2-1-2-1-1-2-3-1-1-2-3-2-1-1-3-2-1-2-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-2-2-3-3-1-1-3-3-3-1-1-2-1-2-2-3-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-3-3-1-1-1-3-3-2-2-1-2-2-2-2-2-1-1-3-3-2-1-1-1-3-2-2-1-3-2-2-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-2-1-1-1-1-1-3-3-3-1-3-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-1-1-3-2-1-1-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-3-1-3-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-2-1-1-2-2-1-2-2-1-2-1-1-3-2-1-3-2-2-1-3-1-3-1-2-1-1-3-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-2-3-3-1-2-1-2-2-3-3-2-1-3-3-3-2-1-3-2-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-1-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-2-3-1-2-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-3-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-2-1-2-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-3-1-1-3-2-3-3-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-3-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-3-2-2-1-3-2-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-3-1-3-2-1-1-1-1-3-2-1-1-2-1-3-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-3-1-1-1-1-2-3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-3-3-2-2-1-2-2-1-1-3-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-3-1-3-2-3-3-1-3-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-2-1-2-1-1-2-1-3-1-2-2-1-2-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-2-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-2-3-1-1-1-2-3-1-1-3-2-2-2-1-2-2-3-1-3-2-3-3-1-1-1-2-1-2-1-3-3-2-2

[/hide]

 

 

Total Results so far: 426 Misses, 213 Cosmics, 161 Astrals, 800 Total attempts

 

Rates:

Miss- 53.25% (1xp) 1564.27xp/hour

Cosmic- 26.625% (63.8xp) 49,899.76xp/hour

Astral- 20.125% (85.6xp) 50,605.6xp/hour

 

Total/hour on Nebula: 102,070xp/hour at level 80 (102,069.63 not rounded)

 

Pretty sure I've done it right, if I have, I'll draw myself a spreadsheet to put the data in for later use.


yqe0mrU.jpg

^^My blog of EoC PvM, lols and Therapy.^^

My livestream- Currently: Offline :(

Offical Harpy Therapist of the Mad

[hide=Lewtations]

Barrows drops: Dharok's helm x2, Guthan's helm, Ahrim's top, Hood and skirt, Torag's hammers, Karils skirt, Karil's top, Torag's helm, Verac's skirt, Verac's Flail, Dharok's Platebody.

Dag kings drops: Lost count! :wall:

4k+ Glacors, 7 Ragefires, 4 Steadfasts, 4 Glaivens, 400+ shards![/hide]

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When you guys gather hit/miss data, can you put it in this spreadsheet (File->Make a copy) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AheuzHmAkHUNdE04LWNodzB5QjlqU1dJbmgzNlZXdUE ?

 

Only edit the green cells. Tbh, don't mess with the 95% either.

 

Post your hits, misses, lower bound, and upper bound, please.

 

Thanks.

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