When will the fish mask be worth over 10m coins?

[Blaze The Movie Fan]

The price seems to have decreased instead of increased which is strange considering the fact it will be discontinued shortly if it isn't already.

 

Now I was gonna sell it in December, but maybe I should wait longer.

 

So my question is in the title.

[stonewall337]

No one knows.

[Kimberly]

It rose to the floor of 4.5 so fast because that's what the convert to coin value was set to in order to keep the quantity in the game low.

 

Like stonewall said though we have no way of knowing when this will happen. Invest according to the GE charts. Since it's a bastardized rare, no one will tell you when to buy low and sell high.

[Lord Slayas]

Has it even been discontinued yet? I saw it on the wheel just a few days ago. Until it's taken off, I can't imagine it's ever going to rise since more of them are being put into the game. Maybe a year, year and a half would be my guess for when it will hit 10m.

[AHappySeeker]

They will be worthless for many, many years. I don't know about 10m but they won't be true rares until the playerbase expands to many times its current size due to the nature of spins.

[Sy_Accursed]

Based on how all the discontinued rares went you are looking at late 2014 before it really starts to rise to much value and even that is dependant on bans alching and quitters thinning out the supply whilst new player influx forms demand.

 

But at the same time this is an entirely new rare, we've never had a rare that we knew would be a rare in advance or that rares could be so valuable, so it's highly unpredictable. The only safe bet is if you want to make any good money off fish mask you need to sit on it for years rather than months.

[country devil]

there is probably going to be a price spike directly

followed by a crash around when it gets taken off the wheel

[Fallstar]

The problem is that everyone had the same idea as you OP. Most people in Runescape bought at least one, and I know some people who bought thousands purely for the purpose of dumping them and crashing them when they are taken off the SoF. Either way, there are several orders of magnitude more fish masks in game than is required for them to behave like a discontinued item. Very few fish masks actually enter the game through SoF now; the difference between a fish mask now and a discontinued fish mask is utterly negligible. If I were you, I'd just sell the thing now and put the cash to better use.

 

Also it looks like absolute shit. Pumpkins are actually relatively rare compared to other lowers and edibles, but they are so cheaply priced because people don't like how they look.

[Blaze The Movie Fan]

If I were you, I'd just sell the thing now and put the cash to better use.

 

Nope, I'm gonna stick to my original plan and sell it in December.

 

I have a feeling it won't be worth over 10m like I thought. But I'm at least hoping it will be worth more than it is now.

 

Also, when the hell will this item be off the squeal of fortune? Jagex said it would be off by the end of the summer. Well, now it's September so clearly it's winter and the summer is over.

[Sy_Accursed]

If I were you, I'd just sell the thing now and put the cash to better use.

 

Nope, I'm gonna stick to my original plan and sell it in December.

 

I have a feeling it won't be worth over 10m like I thought. But I'm at least hoping it will be worth more than it is now.

 

Also, when the hell will this item be off the squeal of fortune? Jagex said it would be off by the end of the summer. Well, now it's September so clearly it's winter and the summer is over.

 

Judging by Jagex's summer promotion their summer is ending the end of september.

 

Also by none of the major season measurements are we in winter.

Astrologically we are in Autumn (which runs 1st September - 30th November) - It's not winter until 1st December in this season system.

Meteorologically we are still in Summer (which runs from the June Solstice to the September Equinox, which this year is 20th June - 22nd September) - This one doesn't reckon it being winter until 21st December

Ecologically we are in Serotinal (Late summer) or possibly Autumnal (Autumn) periods with the switch over being mid-late September - This one enters the Hibernal (winter) season 1st November or 1st December subject to plant type.

[Naive]

Ask for advice, stick to original plan despite replies.

 

Classic.

[Unknown_Warrior]

Ask for advice, stick to original plan despite replies.

 

Classic.

 

Except he wasn't asking for advice but an educated guess when an item will hit an abritrary price.

For my guess: late 2013.

 

Probably won't become a real rare (like the ones we have now) for at least 8 years.

[Dexek]

My latest Fish Mask investment was buying 200 @ 3.0-3.1m and selling all 4.4-4.5m alongside a couple friends who also bought 100+. The price has been down since, and I have since been slowly restocking, however I personally know people with over 1,000 fish masks. It's very hard for the item to rise when the sheer volume of the item is very high (and the desire to own more than one is not so great).

 

I'd imagine you'll see a spike on the discontinued announcement, in which mass holders will either dump a majority or a sizeable amount of masks, causing a strong dip. Thereafter it will likely be an upward trend of the usual dips and spikes a rising item sees.

 

If you only have a small amount of money invested into Fish Masks, you may as well hold it indefinitely, or for a couple years. That's the only other real option aside from riding the dips and rises. It started out as a cheap, relatively high volume item in an age where making the money to buy one takes a couple hours effort on any account type. I don't believe you'll be seeing it get anything close to the value of the current rares for years, if ever. There are simply better investments out there. Ones that not every Runescape player has a sizeable stake in.

[Blaze The Movie Fan]

You know what? I think I'm just gonna sell it right now. What's the point in having it in the bank until December if the price isn't rising? I can see that the price hasn't rised at all for the past couple of days, and it probably will be years until the price really rises.

 

I apologize for not taking the advice on selling it right now earlier, but now I will. Sometimes it's not a good idea to stick to original plans.

[Dexek]

Fish mask is in the latest newspost, so expect a bit of a panic rise within the next 10 days.

[Kimberly]

Fish mask is in the latest newspost, so expect a bit of a panic rise within the next 10 days.

 

They're reissuing the items in a last chance attempt to get them. Wouldn't that lower their value via panicking?

[Lord Slayas]

I imagine that it will drop even more since there is an increased chance to win, and people will be selling like crazy. However, i'm sure soon after it is removed, it will begin it's slow rise.

[Dexek]

Fish mask is in the latest newspost, so expect a bit of a panic rise within the next 10 days.

 

They're reissuing the items in a last chance attempt to get them. Wouldn't that lower their value via panicking?

 

I believe the volume coming in doesn't compare to the number of players with 3.5-4m to invest during the release of the newspost stating an actual discontinued date. Most players with a substantial amount of money to invest knew the discontinued date for over a month now, however there are always large masses who either overlook or are completely unaware of upcoming updates.

 

This newspost caused a spike as predicted, in which I was able to sell all my masks for 5m, which I considered to be the dump period. Within 24hrs the price then fell to low-mid 4m range in which it was time to re-buy. The price is currently 4.7-4.8m and will likely continue to trend upwards until around the discontinued date in which another dump should occur. I personally believe this trend will continue for most of the life of the fish mask (not taking into account any future intervention by Jagex (updates/bans), or player intervention (alching/death)). Basically it's just another little flip item that should see some movement within the next week.

[highlanders]

Just because something is rare doesn't mean people will buy it. Part of the reason people buy stuff like santas, masks, phats is to wear it and show off wealth. Fish masks are ugly. And they don't show wealth, the game would shut down before they ever became rare or worth showing. They'll never be a safe investment like other rares (pumpkin, discs, etc), because jagex could decide to reintroduce them at any time on a whim.

[AHappySeeker]

Just because something is rare doesn't mean people will buy it. Part of the reason people buy stuff like santas, masks, phats is to wear it and show off wealth. Fish masks are ugly. And they don't show wealth, the game would shut down before they ever became rare or worth showing. They'll never be a safe investment like other rares (pumpkin, discs, etc), because jagex could decide to reintroduce them at any time on a whim.

 

They would show wealth if they were actually rare.

[Blaze The Movie Fan]

I'm going off topic a bit, but since we are discussing rares, there is one thing that's bothering me I can't get over.

 

The Santa suit is unobtainable. How the hell was I supposed to get it when I wasn't even playing RuneScape at Christmas of 2008? This just proves that Jagex screws over people who don't participate in every single holiday. I want to make a rant about this, but I have a feeling I will be getting heat like I usually do when making rants, and I don't wanna start another drama.

[Deletion]

Same can be said for every holiday untradeable ever. What would be your solution?

[Platinum_Myr]

If you could still get santa suit, it loses the appeal of being exclusive and becomes less desirable.

 

Also note that by the time Santa hats and Halloween masks were released, the players knew they would be rares.