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kanrath

Squeal of fortune misleading odds

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So, as gift to myself and as a test I spent all my money from trading in at a game store recently to purchase 600 spins on the squeal of fortune. From that I've come to the conclusion the wheel is actually rigged to avoid giving out lucky items or large lanterns at the same odds as other rares. My data for this? Out of 600 spins, I have received 46 rare prizes, of those 14 were the skill clothes items and the rest were prized amulets. Not one of the rares ever landed on a lucky even though the odds state under normal odds of winning one rare over the other during a spin that I should of won at least half a dozen of the other rare types, that being lucky and lanterns. Mind you this is not even talking about the super rare.

 

 

From this we can assume that jagex has actually rigged it this way to force players to continue to use the wheel even if they win by only giving out items with set durations, which both the pendants and clothse have. Is very underhanded of them.

 

 

Also, after you have won most of the prized amulets and skill clothes, they start replacing more and more of the rares with large recharge gems, though they still only give 5 just like the uncommon large recharge gem wins. They also replace them with the prismatic prized amulets, and not the other items you might be after.

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because just like Gambling, the odds are not in your favour. However Jagex will refuse to admit, it's gambling what thay've creative in justification that "but you always win something", ignoring that the value that you spend, does not balance out with the junk you get as a reward.


Popoto.~<3

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Since the begining I have thought that the SoF has set probabilities for each individual rare/ultra-rare items. So essentially, 200M has a 0.000001 chance, Huge lamp has a 0.001 chance, and so on. Then the SoF would randomly generate say 5 items off a list, rank them according to their predetermined probabilities and then place them accordingly. Then the remaining probability is divied up between the commons.

Now obviously it may not work like this, but this is just my thoughts that have been floating around my head. Regardless, it's naive to believe that 200M and a huge lamp have the same probabilities even though they occupy the same slot.

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There was time when there was no SoF, life go on so enjoy this "content" or use only daily spins plus challenge ones and don't descend into this gambling well.


"Mieć milion i nie mieć miliona to razem dwa miliony" A. Sapkowski

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However Jagex will refuse to admit, it's gambling what thay've creative in justification that "but you always win something", ignoring that the value that you spend, does not balance out with the junk you get as a reward.

 

It's funny, because according to Jagex themselves, it would be considered gambling.

Just look at Soul Wars, Barbarian Assault, The Pit etc. where you can gamble your reward points for random prizes which may or may not be valuable (the most valuable rewards being stupidly rare in BA's case.)

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So, as gift to myself and as a test I spent all my money from trading in at a game store recently to purchase 600 spins on the squeal of fortune. From that I've come to the conclusion the wheel is actually rigged to avoid giving out lucky items or large lanterns at the same odds as other rares. My data for this? Out of 600 spins, I have received 46 rare prizes, of those 14 were the skill clothes items and the rest were prized amulets. Not one of the rares ever landed on a lucky even though the odds state under normal odds of winning one rare over the other during a spin that I should of won at least half a dozen of the other rare types, that being lucky and lanterns. Mind you this is not even talking about the super rare.

 

 

From this we can assume that jagex has actually rigged it this way to force players to continue to use the wheel even if they win by only giving out items with set durations, which both the pendants and clothse have. Is very underhanded of them.

 

 

Also, after you have won most of the prized amulets and skill clothes, they start replacing more and more of the rares with large recharge gems, though they still only give 5 just like the uncommon large recharge gem wins. They also replace them with the prismatic prized amulets, and not the other items you might be after.

 

You can't honestly tell me you thought that the odds for all items in set places (rare/common etc) were the same. Surely you aren't THAT stupid. Of course the wheel is stacked. The likelyhood of a super-rare lamp much higher than a 200m. OF COURSE. THAT'S THE POINT.

 

because just like Gambling, the odds are not in your favour. However Jagex will refuse to admit, it's gambling what thay've creative in justification that "but you always win something", ignoring that the value that you spend, does not balance out with the junk you get as a reward.

 

And yet, it's in the game despite anti-gambling laws. Pretty sure their legal team has the bases covered.


 

[bleep] OFF HOW ARE U SO [bleep]ING LUCKY U PIECE OF [bleep]ING SHIT [bleep] [bleep] [wagon] MUNCHER

 

 

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This is why I don't put to much on SoF. It's to unreliable to be useful for most things. I just take what I can get from free spins and move on.

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I know it's pretty right now but, I'll get there(I hope :P).

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So, as gift to myself and as a test I spent all my money from trading in at a game store recently to purchase 600 spins on the squeal of fortune. From that I've come to the conclusion the wheel is actually rigged to avoid giving out lucky items or large lanterns at the same odds as other rares. My data for this? Out of 600 spins, I have received 46 rare prizes, of those 14 were the skill clothes items and the rest were prized amulets. Not one of the rares ever landed on a lucky even though the odds state under normal odds of winning one rare over the other during a spin that I should of won at least half a dozen of the other rare types, that being lucky and lanterns. Mind you this is not even talking about the super rare.

 

 

From this we can assume that jagex has actually rigged it this way to force players to continue to use the wheel even if they win by only giving out items with set durations, which both the pendants and clothse have. Is very underhanded of them.

 

 

Also, after you have won most of the prized amulets and skill clothes, they start replacing more and more of the rares with large recharge gems, though they still only give 5 just like the uncommon large recharge gem wins. They also replace them with the prismatic prized amulets, and not the other items you might be after.

 

I think it's plainly obvious that "Lucky" items and the super-rare prizes would have much smaller odds, and the "rare" red frame is just a graphic, not a real representation of the odds (in the same way the "spinning" mechanic does not represent how close you came to a certain prize).

 

The last part of your post sounds much like a gambler's fallacy.

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It's funny, because according to Jagex themselves, it would be considered gambling.

Just look at Soul Wars, Barbarian Assault, The Pit etc. where you can gamble your reward points for random prizes which may or may not be valuable (the most valuable rewards being stupidly rare in BA's case.)

 

On the contrary, initially, Jagex adamantly insisted that the SOF was not gambling because "you won something every time!".

 

Indeed, here's the nonsensical and completely douchey response they gave:

 

kdwQd.png

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We all know that the Squeal of Fortune's sole purpose is to increase revenue. Of course your chances of winning the items that are most sought after will be almost non-existent. After all, It is in Jagex's best interest that you buy more spins.


Theskilln00b.png

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So, as gift to myself and as a test I spent all my money from trading in at a game store recently to purchase 600 spins on the squeal of fortune. From that I've come to the conclusion the wheel is actually rigged to avoid giving out lucky items or large lanterns at the same odds as other rares. My data for this? Out of 600 spins, I have received 46 rare prizes, of those 14 were the skill clothes items and the rest were prized amulets. Not one of the rares ever landed on a lucky even though the odds state under normal odds of winning one rare over the other during a spin that I should of won at least half a dozen of the other rare types, that being lucky and lanterns. Mind you this is not even talking about the super rare.

 

 

From this we can assume that jagex has actually rigged it this way to force players to continue to use the wheel even if they win by only giving out items with set durations, which both the pendants and clothse have. Is very underhanded of them.

 

 

Also, after you have won most of the prized amulets and skill clothes, they start replacing more and more of the rares with large recharge gems, though they still only give 5 just like the uncommon large recharge gem wins. They also replace them with the prismatic prized amulets, and not the other items you might be after.

yeah i agree these odds are not what people think :mad: :shame:

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xX MAFIA RANGERS Xx

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So, as gift to myself and as a test I spent all my money from trading in at a game store recently to purchase 600 spins on the squeal of fortune. From that I've come to the conclusion the wheel is actually rigged to avoid giving out lucky items or large lanterns at the same odds as other rares. My data for this? Out of 600 spins, I have received 46 rare prizes, of those 14 were the skill clothes items and the rest were prized amulets. Not one of the rares ever landed on a lucky even though the odds state under normal odds of winning one rare over the other during a spin that I should of won at least half a dozen of the other rare types, that being lucky and lanterns. Mind you this is not even talking about the super rare.

 

 

From this we can assume that jagex has actually rigged it this way to force players to continue to use the wheel even if they win by only giving out items with set durations, which both the pendants and clothse have. Is very underhanded of them.

 

 

Also, after you have won most of the prized amulets and skill clothes, they start replacing more and more of the rares with large recharge gems, though they still only give 5 just like the uncommon large recharge gem wins. They also replace them with the prismatic prized amulets, and not the other items you might be after.

 

You can't honestly tell me you thought that the odds for all items in set places (rare/common etc) were the same. Surely you aren't THAT stupid. Of course the wheel is stacked. The likelyhood of a super-rare lamp much higher than a 200m. OF COURSE. THAT'S THE POINT.

 

because just like Gambling, the odds are not in your favour. However Jagex will refuse to admit, it's gambling what thay've creative in justification that "but you always win something", ignoring that the value that you spend, does not balance out with the junk you get as a reward.

 

And yet, it's in the game despite anti-gambling laws. Pretty sure their legal team has the bases covered.

 

The UK has laws on gambling that are some how supposed to affect what jagex does?

As far as I know, as long as they go through the gambling commission, they'd be cool. And i'm fairly certain this isn't considered gambling even by the UK's standard.

 

Sure maybe by US standards there would be an affect depending on your state, but a state government can't do much about what a UK company does. Maybe make their game illegal in their state, but that would be kind of... pointless to do.

Especially when by US standards this isn't gambling.


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The UK has laws on gambling that are some how supposed to affect what jagex does?

As far as I know, as long as they go through the gambling commission, they'd be cool. And i'm fairly certain this isn't considered gambling even by the UK's standard.

 

 

Evidently next time I post on the topic I have to bold and size 7 "IT'S NOT GAMBLING"


 

[bleep] OFF HOW ARE U SO [bleep]ING LUCKY U PIECE OF [bleep]ING SHIT [bleep] [bleep] [wagon] MUNCHER

 

 

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It isn't gambling because at no opportunity can you hope to gain any return from buying all the spins in the first place. Each spin earns you an in-game item for your character, all of which remain property of Jagex. The only possible way you could "cash in" would be to engage in RWT, which would involve breaking the terms and conditions you signed when you created the account. Any suggesting that this is a form of gambling works on the premise that, once won, the items are now your property, which is utterly untrue and grossly misinformed.

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The UK has laws on gambling that are some how supposed to affect what jagex does?

As far as I know, as long as they go through the gambling commission, they'd be cool. And i'm fairly certain this isn't considered gambling even by the UK's standard.

 

 

Evidently next time I post on the topic I have to bold and size 7 "IT'S NOT GAMBLING"

 

No.

But that wasn't my point.

My point was that UK's laws are pretty loose and that if Jagex wanted to be a gambling website, that could do so with ease.

There's nothing to really stop them either.

 

You said it's in the game despite anti-gambling laws.

I'm pointing out that there are no anti-gambling laws other than Jagex would have to go to the gambling commission and get registered.


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