Jump to content
Pat_61

Runescape Dying? [Discussion/Observation]

Recommended Posts

 

Mod Marks problem was he couldn't even admit to himself EoC was a wrong move.

I don't really thing you can say EOC was a wrong move with such certainty as it's entirely based on opinion whether or not you like it. I personally had been calling on Jagex to revamp combat for years so I welcomed EOC. Many people wanted to take combat back to "the old days" so they disliked it. The only ones qualified to say whether EOC was positive or negative would be Jagex, basing their judgement on their own internal data of players coming in, leaving, etc. We simply do not have the means to determine just how much of the decline in the past year has been due to EOC related quitters.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Mod Marks problem was he couldn't even admit to himself EoC was a wrong move.

I don't really thing you can say EOC was a wrong move with such certainty as it's entirely based on opinion whether or not you like it. I personally had been calling on Jagex to revamp combat for years so I welcomed EOC. Many people wanted to take combat back to "the old days" so they disliked it. The only ones qualified to say whether EOC was positive or negative would be Jagex, basing their judgement on their own internal data of players coming in, leaving, etc. We simply do not have the means to determine just how much of the decline in the past year has been due to EOC related quitters.

 

 

 

It was wrong because it speed up the decline by years. It was wrong because mass people were against it. EoC does not benifit RuneScapes growth. I also welcomed a revamp. But I did not welcome EoC. It was not for RuneScape. As a consumer, I have the right to say whether >I< felt its wrong. Just like if you felt its right. Evidence and figures point towards wrong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You have a right to say it's wrong. However, I am fairly sure Jagex does market research... While they may have implemented EoC badly in some respects, I do feel that a lot of people dislike it simply because its new and they don't want to learn. Yes, it is not the best implementation of ability based combat (and it needs more abilities that do more interactive things, with a clear-er indication of what is actually happening to both you and your target). But I do feel like it is better than the mindless system we previously had (for people *not* at the pinnacle of combat gameplay) of click and wait. Ofcourse the highest level of play included things like soulsplit flicking, managing familiars and potion timers, as well as lossless picking up loot, etc. Some of those things are not important or effective now. However, the highest level of gameplay is not the only level.


Serena_Sedai.png
Maxed since Sunday, January 9th, 2014
Completionist since Wednesday, June 4th, 2014

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So far as I can tell we only have 2 solid data points. 1m subscribers in 2007 and 575k today. But even those data points are flawed because they fail to describe how many of those are bots. The number of bots has fluctuated wildly for the better part of the games existence and, since jagex really has never given their own internal numbers, we're forced to guess how much of the decline is bot based. Then we're forced to guess what the "background rate of decline" is (jagex has confirmed that there was a noticeable slow and steady decline from 2008-2012).

Essentially, there is far too much suggestive guessing to say whether or not the EOC was a major source of decline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Figures:

 

Active Players Drop and Player Online Drop

Membership Drop

1/3 to 1/4 Being OSRS

 

-

 

ALL decreasing, Thats a bad thing. Speed up by EoC (key word, speed)

 

As for the comment about it being implimented badly, yeah I agree. But they should of changed the core of the system as well as tweaks. Maybe it would be more welcomed then due to the fact players actually built it.

 

Also, if you call ruining, PVP based mini games and PVP its self, destroying players hard work on pures and special accounts, Degrading all weapons and armours unique abilities and reasons of use. Putting most quest rewards useless. And choosing to impliment a system where the best method is use the weakness and spam keys a good choice then if you ever have a game company, hire Mark.

 

-

 

The bots are also a key figure depending how you decide to look at it. The fact people dont even care for botting anymore shows the decline in market for the game. EoC only threw off bots tempory due to the nature of the update.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are weaknesses in EoC, no-one's really disputing that (although, I'd personally argue a caveat that there were even greater weaknesses in the pre-EoC model).

 

What we are disputing is the way you've put the cart in front of the horse when it comes to figures. You've taken two data points across time, drawn a line of averages, found a negative correlation and assumed EoC must have caused it, simply because EoC just happened to take place between those two points. That's circumstantial at the very best, totally insignificant at the very worst.

 

Botting activity is related to player demand, true, but it's an indirect relationship complicated by accompanying factors. That too cannot be used as a yardstick for measuring player attitudes towards EoC. There's nothing to stop me playing Devil's Advocate, and arguing that botting activity would have fallen anyway due to financial factors (for example).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The bots are also a key figure depending how you decide to look at it. The fact people dont even care for botting anymore shows the decline in market for the game. EoC only threw off bots tempory due to the nature of the update.

Bot numbers are down because:

- Massive redistribution of wealth to the top few players through gambling facilitated the need to redistribute that wealth back to the masses. This drove many goldfarming operations to switch from producing and selling gold to becoming gold resellers. Thus, less need for bots.

- Botwatch. If you take a look at botting forums, it's packed with people wanting to bot. It's also packed with people being banned for botting. Many people on a certain bot site now assume the bot client is detectable by Jagex simply because of the astonishing ban rates since botwatch was fully rolled out.

- The EOC actually did nothing to bots because bot developers were in the Beta.

 

Figures:

Active Players Drop and Player Online Drop

Membership Drop

1/3 to 1/4 Being OSRS

-

ALL decreasing, Thats a bad thing. Speed up by EoC (key word, speed)

Yes, no one is debating the fact that active players are lowering (and thus membership and online follows). We know this. Jagex knows this. But you can not claim that it was sped up by EOC without relevant data. That's my entire argument here - that you are drawing conclusions based on at best circumstantial evidence, and at worst no evidence at all.

 

As a consumer, I have the right to say whether >I< felt its wrong.

True, but my problem is when you start saying things like:

Mod Marks problem was he couldn't even admit to himself EoC was a wrong move.

which is essentially claiming that your opinion is the correct one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont have figures but if the slope of the graph of player populations declines increased after EoC then you can mathamatically show a correlation there.

 

Ofc correlation doesn't mean causation, maybe there wouldve been a bigger rate of dropping player populations in 2013 regardless of EoC, but in the abscense of any real changes to the gaming community (like some new WoW-crusher MMO emerging) I am going to have to blame new content within the game whether its EoC, anti-bot updates, microtransactions, etc.

 

Also I don't have a graph of player populations. If someone can post one of 2007-2013 that would be helpful to have real debates about EoC's impact on player populations.

 

Edit: bolded the important parts here

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also I don't have a graph of player populations. If someone can post one of 2007-2013 that would be helpful to have real debates about EoC's impact on player populations.

That's the problem. As far as I know, no one has kept track of population over the long term. Therefore we can't find the background rate of decline, instant decline after bot nukes, and gradual decline after 'bad' updates.

EDIT: On this topic. I know Tipit had a member number counter on the beta website a while back. Is this still running? If so, can a website crew member recover past data (only showed like the past 7 days or something)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EoC was a bad move simply because there was and is so much work left to do. For example, potions, combat styles, interfaces, combat familiars, equipment and abilities have been either unbalanced or broken since the beta[1], and no fixes have really taken place yet. Sure, the pre-EoC system was unbalanced, most obviously heavily in favour of melee for pvm, but at least people understood the system, and it was easy to understand. The numbers in the interface were the numbers used in the calculations, and that's something you could depend on at least.

 

Basically, Jagex does not have the ability to fix things quickly. There is something in the organization of the company that prevents it, otherwise these things would have been picked up on straight away. Before you release an update like EoC, you need to be sure that you have a huge team doing nothing but scouring the forums for issues and fixing them immediately. You need to tell people what your reasoning is when you pick a system like the current one, with no differentiation in attack speed. Why do you think that will make the game more fun? Why do you think it would be best to give monsters no abilities? Why do you choose to change the equipment system, and why this system and not one that has damage reduction?

 

If you want people to help you find bugs, you need to tell them what you want to achieve, because otherwise people will think: "Oh, in this system, ability damage isn't boosted by prayers, well I guess that's for autoattacks only then" or similar (less exaggerated) thoughts.

 


1. As seen by the following:

- Potions provide less of a damage boost if you are using stronger weapons because of the additive system. They used to be broken entirely, boosting damage by only 17 (about 1%). Boosted levels have still not been made clearly useful. If you looked at the interface before and after levelling strength, you would never know that a strength potion could be useful.

- Melee still has a wider selection of abilities than other styles, with effects such as Smash, Kick and Sever. Ranged has the worst abilities overall.

- Autocast spells aren't saved in all situations, most obviously in Dungeoneering. Ability timers are often wrong. The action bar often doesn't respond.

- Steel titans are no longer worth using. They are level 99 weapons, and they are weak, because they die very quickly when attacked. Familiars other than the steel titan weren't really made useful with EoC either.

- Level 90 magic weapons cost over twenty times as much as level 90 melee weapons. Level 80 2h ranged is much cheaper than other level 80 weapons. Tank equipment is worse than power equipment 15 levels lower, whereas hybrid armour is universally not worth using.

- Nine out of ten ability descriptions are incorrect or incomplete. There are not enough special effects, and stuns are overused, perhaps as a result.

  • Like 3

Supporter of Zaros | Quest Cape owner since 22 may 2010 | No skills below 99 | Total level 2595 | Completionist Cape owner since 17th June 2013 | Suggestions

99 summoning (18th June 2011, previously untrimmed) | 99 farming (14th July 2011) | 99 prayer (8th September 2011) | 99 constitution (10th September 2011) | 99 dungeoneering (15th November 2011)

99 ranged (28th November 2011) | 99 attack, 99 defence, 99 strength (11th December 2011) | 99 slayer (18th December 2011) | 99 magic (22nd December 2011) | 99 construction (16th March 2012)

99 herblore (22nd March 2012) | 99 firemaking (26th March 2012) | 99 cooking (2nd July 2012) | 99 runecrafting (12th March 2012) | 99 crafting (26th August 2012) | 99 agility (19th November 2012)

99 woodcutting (22nd November 2012) | 99 fletching (31st December 2012) | 99 thieving (3rd January 2013) | 99 hunter (11th January 2013) | 99 mining (21st January 2013) | 99 fishing (21st January 2013)

99 smithing (21st January 2013) | 120 dungeoneering (17th June 2013) | 99 divination (24th November 2013)

Tormented demon drops: twenty effigies, nine pairs of claws, two dragon armour slices and one elite clue | Dagannoth king drops: two dragon hatchets, two elite clues, one archer ring and one warrior ring

Glacor drops: four pairs of ragefire boots, one pair of steadfast boots, six effigies, two hundred lots of Armadyl shards, three elite clues | Nex split: Torva boots | Kalphite King split: off-hand drygore mace

30/30 Shattered Heart statues completed | 16/16 Court Cases completed | 25/25 Choc Chimp Ices delivered | 500/500 Vyrewatch burned | 584/584 tasks completed | 4000/4000 chompies hunted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^and a ton of minigames weren't updated with eoc in mind, eg barbarian assault where you 1hit everything and tons of minigames whose rewards are completely useless.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Smelly Paws

Also, if you call ruining, PVP based mini games and PVP its self, destroying players hard work on pures and special accounts, Degrading all weapons and armours unique abilities and reasons of use. Putting most quest rewards useless. And choosing to impliment a system where the best method is use the weakness and spam keys a good choice then if you ever have a game company, hire Mark.

 

 

So.....Somethings telling me you've got Mark issues?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with Quyneax: EoC was a fine idea in principle, but Jagex clearly does not have the determination and wherewithal to really realize it in any satisfactory sense.

 

As for the evidence, in addition to a correlation between EoC and players dropping, we have also have other non-quantitative factors: lots of outrage, complaints and dissatisfaction with the EoC (not in the sense that they want to improve it, but in the sense that they don't want it at all), and a lot of support for on obviously inferior version of the game (2007) - a lot of the people did not go to '07 because they actually wanted to play '07, they went there because they were anti-EoC and it was the only alternative available. All of this suggests to me that a lot of people didn't like EoC and Jagex has failed to integrate them into the new system, or replace them with new players and that's a very bad thing.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Also, if you call ruining, PVP based mini games and PVP its self, destroying players hard work on pures and special accounts, Degrading all weapons and armours unique abilities and reasons of use. Putting most quest rewards useless. And choosing to impliment a system where the best method is use the weakness and spam keys a good choice then if you ever have a game company, hire Mark.

 

 

So.....Somethings telling me you've got Mark issues?

 

 

Yes, you could say I dont like him. I admire the passion, thats all I like about him. Hes way too disconnected with the players and when he said trolling in the divination video a shiver went down my spine. I dont know how that guy smiles so much and acts happy. Its creepy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Also, if you call ruining, PVP based mini games and PVP its self, destroying players hard work on pures and special accounts, Degrading all weapons and armours unique abilities and reasons of use. Putting most quest rewards useless. And choosing to impliment a system where the best method is use the weakness and spam keys a good choice then if you ever have a game company, hire Mark.

 

So.....Somethings telling me you've got Mark issues?

 

Yes, you could say I dont like him. I admire the passion, thats all I like about him. Hes way too disconnected with the players and when he said trolling in the divination video a shiver went down my spine. I dont know how that guy smiles so much and acts happy. Its creepy

 

This comment further support what OrTradeMe is saying. Most of what you are saying as facts is heavily bias. And I think you know this...

 

Also, I know EOC was a big update that had everyone flip [cabbage] and it is still very much incomplete...but why are we debating if EOC was the reason for the declines again, when not too many pages back, we established EOC was one of the many updates the has lead to the decline of the RS population. I thought we moved on to the point of discussing how the game can be improved. And no I'm not talking "Get rid of EOC" or "Fire Mod Mark" or "I don't think it can."


29386_s.gif

"Goals dont have a deadline." -xxxgod quoting Lady Shahdie

[slayer "Essentials"][click pic for main blog][click quote for mini blog][Worthwhile Auras]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

Also, if you call ruining, PVP based mini games and PVP its self, destroying players hard work on pures and special accounts, Degrading all weapons and armours unique abilities and reasons of use. Putting most quest rewards useless. And choosing to impliment a system where the best method is use the weakness and spam keys a good choice then if you ever have a game company, hire Mark.

 

So.....Somethings telling me you've got Mark issues?

 

Yes, you could say I dont like him. I admire the passion, thats all I like about him. Hes way too disconnected with the players and when he said trolling in the divination video a shiver went down my spine. I dont know how that guy smiles so much and acts happy. Its creepy

 

This comment further support what OrTradeMe is saying. Most of what you are saying as facts is heavily bias. And I think you know this...

 

Also, I know EOC was a big update that had everyone flip [cabbage] and it is still very much incomplete...but why are we debating if EOC was the reason for the declines again, when not too many pages back, we established EOC was one of the many updates the has lead to the decline of the RS population. I thought we moved on to the point of discussing how the game can be improved. And no I'm not talking "Get rid of EOC" or "Fire Mod Mark" or "I don't think it can."

 

I dont know how it was brought up. I likely responded to someone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/1mfk0d/some_interesting_graphs_of_hiscore_member_count/

 

This has some fairly long term data of hiscore member count. There's clearly an immediate drop after the Evolution of Combat but it's unclear what the actual cause was.

  • Like 1

"It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man."

 

-- Jack Handey

 

Cook_Me_Plox.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for all that info, CookMePlox. There are 2 graphs on that thread, one of players with 99 attack, and total number of players on the hiscores. The first graph isn't too useful for a large scale comparison but the second one is quite useful for this discussion (posted below for ease of access). I'll go through and add a few key points, but it's pretty clear where particular updates took place.

2gww1nm.jpg

 

EDIT: Here is the graph with a few markers of important updates included. Smaller updates indicated by letters to interfere less with the graph itself. It's important to note that Jagex, more often than not, updates Botwatch in secret so it's difficult to tell exactly how many of the smaller declines are based on Botwatch updates. In addition, it takes time for peoples' memberships to lapse and for them to be removed from the HS after quitting. Therefore points indicated are rough estimates of the 'cause' of certain declines based on updates at or just before the decline.

 

Line 1 - Green - Bot nuke

Line 2 - Red - Hiscores become P2P only and graph starts

Line 3 - Yellow - 14 day trial memberships begin

Line 4 - Purple - EOC is released to the live game

Line 5 - Blue - OSRS is released

Line 6 - Yellow - 14 day trial memberships end

Line 7 - Maroon - RS3 goes live

 

Point A - Buyable spins

Point B - Botwatch improvements

Point C - SGS opens. 200M accounts reached (critics accused Jagex of holding off on anti-bot updates until after 200M for the sake of inflating numbers. This is completely unconfirmed rumours)

Point D - Can't find much around this time that would explain the drop. Perhaps hidden bot ban? Also decent amounts of SGS updates.

2iqg9l2.jpg

 

@ Quyneax below: I can't say for P2P, but I've noticed a massive decline (almost 100%) of resource bots since around that time in F2P. Whether that's goldfarmers moving to OSRS for a new market, or if there was significant Botwatch improvements around that time, my money is on goldfarmers making up the bulk of the drop. I find it hard to belive there would be ~1M skillers in RS, much less all move over to OSRS at the same time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A huge number of people not ranked in attack but ranked in overall disappeared after OSRS. Did all the skillers leave EoC or what?


Supporter of Zaros | Quest Cape owner since 22 may 2010 | No skills below 99 | Total level 2595 | Completionist Cape owner since 17th June 2013 | Suggestions

99 summoning (18th June 2011, previously untrimmed) | 99 farming (14th July 2011) | 99 prayer (8th September 2011) | 99 constitution (10th September 2011) | 99 dungeoneering (15th November 2011)

99 ranged (28th November 2011) | 99 attack, 99 defence, 99 strength (11th December 2011) | 99 slayer (18th December 2011) | 99 magic (22nd December 2011) | 99 construction (16th March 2012)

99 herblore (22nd March 2012) | 99 firemaking (26th March 2012) | 99 cooking (2nd July 2012) | 99 runecrafting (12th March 2012) | 99 crafting (26th August 2012) | 99 agility (19th November 2012)

99 woodcutting (22nd November 2012) | 99 fletching (31st December 2012) | 99 thieving (3rd January 2013) | 99 hunter (11th January 2013) | 99 mining (21st January 2013) | 99 fishing (21st January 2013)

99 smithing (21st January 2013) | 120 dungeoneering (17th June 2013) | 99 divination (24th November 2013)

Tormented demon drops: twenty effigies, nine pairs of claws, two dragon armour slices and one elite clue | Dagannoth king drops: two dragon hatchets, two elite clues, one archer ring and one warrior ring

Glacor drops: four pairs of ragefire boots, one pair of steadfast boots, six effigies, two hundred lots of Armadyl shards, three elite clues | Nex split: Torva boots | Kalphite King split: off-hand drygore mace

30/30 Shattered Heart statues completed | 16/16 Court Cases completed | 25/25 Choc Chimp Ices delivered | 500/500 Vyrewatch burned | 584/584 tasks completed | 4000/4000 chompies hunted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A huge number of people not ranked in attack but ranked in overall disappeared after OSRS. Did all the skillers leave EoC or what?

Bots I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think while it's easy with that graph to focus on the big drops around the EOC etc, to me the most notable thing is the difference between the start of the graph just after the first bot nuke, and now now. The difference is what 100-120k over an 18 month period. Thats not that horrific and is reasonably stable. I think all the crazy stuff in the middle shows how big an issue bots have been in the game. I guess the free trial memberships they were doing at that time also contributed to its fluctuation.

 

Its the next 6 months of data that are the most important so we can see if RS3 can bring it back towards that Christmas 2011 value of 600-700k players.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say that RuneScape is past its prime. A long time ago, it was common to have more than 250,000 players online at once, and most of them weren't bots. Sadly, those days are long gone. There's a reason the game isn't billed as the "world's most popular free MMORPG" anymore.


ixfd64.png

 

ARENAscape:

 

Baratus [AS] max hit: 166 with Moon Battle Hammer

ixfd64 [AS] max hit: 116 with (untitled spell #2)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its worth pointing out for that graph and the overall line: Hiscores ONLY run to 2million; the massive spike over 2million and subsequent fall are purely made up by the graph makers 'estimates.'

This estimation, to me, seems highly floored. He basically seems to of continued the exact same steepness of account numbers rising right up to the day of EoC (even though the rest of the graph cleary suggests it's never been so stable) and then plummeted it down for eoc.

That's over a million accounts fictionally invented by 'estimation' that may not actually exist, which means nearly 50% of the supposed eoc drop off shown may not even exist.

  • Like 2

Plv6Dz6.jpg

Operation Gold Sparkles :: Chompy Kills ::  Full Profound :: Champions :: Barbarian Notes :: Champions Tackle Box :: MA Rewards

Dragonkin Journals :: Ports Stories :: Elder Chronicles :: Boss Slayer :: Penance King :: Kal'gerion Titles :: Gold Statue

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say that RuneScape is past its prime. A long time ago, it was common to have more than 250,000 players online at once, and most of them weren't bots. Sadly, those days are long gone. There's a reason the game isn't billed as the "world's most popular free MMORPG" anymore.

 

I don't know when you played, but surely, most were bots.

In the past 9 years, I saw bots at every spot. Now, this is no longer the case, luckily. But we can't deny that most worlds are empty, too empty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.