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A Numeric Glance At Bond


hlpmee
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(For the sake of convenience, this article assume every player is rational)

 

 

Player can buy bond with real world money, current price is $5.

 

Player can trade bond with other player for in game items (e.g. coins).

 

Player can trade bond for benefits such as membership / spins / runecoins, currently,

 

1 Bond = 14 days of membership = 8 spins = 160 runecoins.

 

 

First we can rule out the case which player buy a bond then trade for benefits himself/herself. Because all the benefits worth less than a bond.

 

14 days of membership worth $2.77

 

8 spins worth $1.77 ~ $3.99

 

160 runcoins worth $3.07 ~ $4.00

 

 

Therefore player would only buy bonds so that he/she can trade with other player, say a sum of coins, legitimately.

 

If player can buy coins through illegitimate RWT, according to first 10 results search for "runescape gold" in google, currently,

 

through RWT $5 = 11.5m (coins)

 

on the G.E. bond = 6.6m falling

 

If the G.E. rate is higher than RWT, player would definitely abandon RWT;

 

While G.E. rate is lower than RWT, the difference is the cost of legitimation.

 

 

On the other hand, in game coins are enormous. IMHO, 2m/hr is fairly easy, not to mention high lvl boss rewards.

 

Trade in game coins for bonds is quite a good deal at current rate.

 

Therefore I predict G.E. bond price will rise towards RWT rate.

 

 

When G.E. bond price near the RWT rate, RWT rate will rise to keep alive, but G.E. bond price will rise again because money making is so easy.

 

 

To conclude:

 

I think Jagex's bond idea is clever. Because it turns players who are able to make in game wealth into the enemy of RWT. And the players' power should never be underestimated.

 

 

 

 

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$5 can currently get you over 15M on certain sites.

 

Bonds buy for 5M over time. I believe JJ was buying them yesterday for 5.5M instantly. I think if their price was going to change or rise, it would have by now but they've stayed at 5-6M since release.

 

While G.E. rate is lower than RWT, the difference is the cost of legitimation.

Considering that, according to Jagex, 40-50% of people had previously RWTed, that cost (or need) apparently isn't very high.

 

Bonds were an idea that probably looked good on paper, but I don't see them working. All they're doing is giving the very few who were worried about shady RWT companies the chance to RWT also. I've also not seen a difference in gold prices, by even a penny, on RWT websites yet.

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