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11-Dec-2013 - The Bird and the Beast (World Event 2)


Ned

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I wonder if group 3 even makes a difference. If they are all going to flock around one god, then that god was already winning beforehand. The chance of having an event so balanced that the lead changes during the event is slim, I think. So all this group does, if my thinking's right, is make the difference between the losing and winning god bigger.

 

It will be interesting to see future matchups though, Two "evil" or two "good" gods would make it a lot less predictable than the two we've had so far.

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Could withholding the score for say one week help to cut down on those bandwagon jumpers? Sure people can switch, but I personally think it would push people to the side they want to win rather than jumping on the winning team so you get a truer proportion of peoples allegiances.

If after one week Arma is up 60-40 and the revelation of that prompts people to switch gods, would it be any different than if they could switch or pick the leading god on day one? I think it would.

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I wonder if group 3 even makes a difference. If they are all going to flock around one god, then that god was already winning beforehand. The chance of having an event so balanced that the lead changes during the event is slim, I think. So all this group does, if my thinking's right, is make the difference between the losing and winning god bigger.

 

It will be interesting to see future matchups though, Two "evil" or two "good" gods would make it a lot less predictable than the two we've had so far.

That made me realize a big problem with world events: there's no possibility of a god making a comeback; it's essentially determined on the first day. I guess I always knew this, but it never really hit me.

 

I think you could fix this by making the marginal benefit of each person decrease to 0. For example, if it were Armadyl vs Bandos again, they could limit the number of people allowed to work on a site to 5. You'd have to kill someone to take their spot. The more popular side could probably stand around and pile every opposing player, but I don't think that'd be too common due to the lack of xp and if it did, that side probably deserves to win.

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actually, this has been resolved by, of all places, neopets, by just weighing the AVERAGE performance of all of the players in a faction, minus a percentage of the lowest performing players, in addition to players that joined, but didn't actually participate, in order to combat fraud

 

granted, they kind of messed up the system in the following years, but overall the concept is pretty sound

 

they would have to modify the event to force all of the players on every server to compete with each other directly, instead of scattering them like they do now, though

 

however, any way you slice it, it's always going to be a popularity contest

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