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runetipguy

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  1. No, this won't. Oh dear, i just read this and this confirms that noone can comprehend my posts. This thread can be locked deleted or whatever, I'm done trying to teach people. My low tolerance of ignorance is most likely why I'm not inclined to do teaching @ univeresity.
  2. Your mathematics is correct, though it is not what I'm trying to say. Your perspective deals with "what are my chances of getting something in X klills" where mine is what are the chances of getting it in each and every single kill. you haven't said anything wrong, just it's not valid to my point Besides what I've highlighted in red, the only other big issue I see with the post is the internal inconsistency. Idiot, that was showing the difference between the two. But nooooo you think im talking about the same concept. If you don't have the capacity to read an understand all of my words, don't post-you'll only be posting ignorant replies. The problem is your definition of drop rate is, to be blunt, wrong. You are the only person on this thread with that definition of drop-rate. It is a definition of drop rate I have never heard of, because I have never played any video game where there is any monster you can kill that drops a particular item once for every X kills, where X is one single integer greater then one. I am not sure where you got this definition from.In any case, the meaning of a word or phrase is the definition most people (of a community) use for that word or phrase.Two last notes:1. I must apologize in advanced, because this probably constitutes flame-bait, but I think the OP might be trolling. Just might. This thread reminds me of a lot of other dumb threads I've read that were created by trolls. To the OP, I apologize if this is not the case.2. This "drop-rate" idea, which currently does not exist in any game that I am aware of, would be a rather nice addition for certain really rare non-tradeable drops, such as champions scrolls. Rates and chance, they are not interchangable "car and automobiles" are interchangable but rates and chance are not like the car analogy. The approx probaility can be derived from stasitics, and then using this probability, they use the probaility to determine the expected rate. The rate is an entirely different thing to probability As someone has posted out, not many people are understanding the ideas i'm expressng. Whether they are too complex or not written in a suitable format or my over use of jargon, I will have no idea. To everyone who says I'm wrong, wait till you learn rates in calculus[rates @ the dot], it will shift your view on rates entirely. Then when you learn probability (or vice-versa, probility first then rates), you will see they are two completely different concepts. One is clearly based on uncertainty and one is based on definite chance (i.e. certain) If you have learnt this in maths and have only recently graduated, shame on you for not understanding such simple ideas. I'm still in my last year of high school and I've basically understood both of them very deeply.
  3. YES that IS WRONG. Hence why the chances of surviving depends on a more specific probability; which is probabaly incalculatable because of the number of factors that influences your survival. What the hell have you been reading man? You basically said my idea is correct, and now you're saying I'm wrong I was pointing to the "rate" in "mortality rate". Your survival is probability. The rate means how many people in total have died and can be used to determine the APPROXIMATE probaility of surviving
  4. Someone else said semantics, and I thought they misspelled "schematics" What is semantics, cbf googling
  5. YES that IS WRONG. Hence why the chances of surviving depends on a more specific probability; which is probabaly incalculatable because of the number of factors that influences your survival. What the hell have you been reading man? You basically said my idea is correct, and now you're saying I'm wrong
  6. I feel this is relevant to this thread What if you can afk a lot [30mins +] and still train a skill. Would that be considered botting? If so, then a lot of legitamate players who just afk occassionally will be banned. If not, it would be hard to tell if someone is botting or not [using a program]. This is why I think Jagex doesn't take more severe actions.
  7. Sorry, corrected For some reason I can't get the quote. It's the 3rd post, bolded the change. I'm a noob in using this forum's interface lol
  8. I'm arguing on behalf of all the people who make legitamate opinions who are being put down by the ignorant people(and they're winning). Noone likes ignorant people, yet we're all ignorant...I 'd like to change that because the world would spin around easier if there's less ignorance in our world Point of thread: Distinguish rate and chance. Less ignorance in this community. They weren't 100% right, and were claiming they were 100% right. That is never agreeable to any human being. Not my correct terms, it;'s THE correct terms. I don't know why everyone is making replies filled with anger, I was merely trying to improve everyones knowledge
  9. In the runescape item context, people are trying to derive the formula for the chance an item will drop. They have not succeeded(obviously as the programming code isn't released by Jagex) and use scores gathered by many people and have used created the AVERAGE chance of dropping the item. Not the actual chance on which the item drops. We can only get a more and more accurate percentage when the number of trials are very large (it's 100% accurate when it approaches infinity) In summary: We want the ACTUAL chace, not the AVERAGE chance which is dervied from data. The AVERAGE chance is only an estimate of the ACTUAL chance The data you're using is derived from statistics. It's an AVERAGE rate not the instantenous rate. Instantenous rate means the rate of which people get unemployed or die at a time zero event (i.e. at exactly time = 21/4/10 @ 6:21 pm 1 second). This is very difficult to calculate as so many factors influence this rate. Therefore we estimate the rate using the data we(they) have gathered.
  10. You have a good point there. I did take that into account, though I saw many people who understood the distinction between rate and chance were attacked by the people who were ignorant in that draconic viasge thread. I wanted to settle the confusion. Your logic is flawed. Maybe you didn't express your idea correctly, and for now please understand OUTSIDE of runescape, rates and chance are not interchangeable
  11. In that perspective, yes it can however your case only consider's the AVERAGE rate. The most accurate chance drop is instantaneous, so @ the time of the kill only. this is what everyone is trying to figure out. Hence drop chance is the correct term. I think everyone needs a maths lesson on "rates". Rate: the change in value with respect to time or any other independent variable. A good example is the amount of water flowing into a bucket. Say the rate of water in is 5mL/s. This means that every second 5mls goes in the bucket. A more relevant example would be 0.2mL entering the bucket every second. Every 5 seconds we have 1mL. For the goblin thing, we can't have 0.2 daggers each kill. If we plot the points on a graph however, we will see that for every monster killed, there is 1 dagger. The gradient = the rate (sorry for being technical), = 0.2 = 1/5 = rate The average rate is the rate that every drop is based on. After 5000 kills (the larger sample size for finding an average, the better), you would average around 1000 daggers. You're going about this the wrong way. Your bucket example is irrelevant; the drop rate doesn't increase for every kill you get. There are no fractions of an item. You either get the item or you don't, and the chance of getting the item doesn't increase after each kill. The average rate is calculated by using a wide range of scores which are based on the instantaenous rate. Consider this: I go from 0km/h to 60km/h. My average speed is 30km/h but this is a poor measure of my instantaneous speeds on on which I was travelling. Chance of dropping a dagger = 1/5. We WOULD EXPECT to get 1000 after 5000 kills, however this is not always the case. This is junior school probability mate Please read everything, I did say the bucket was not relevant, and hence provided the connection between my scenario to the bucket analogy. AND PLUS I SAID THE GRADIENT IS a fixed number, hence it's constant because it's a straight line. Chance does not increase
  12. In that perspective, yes it can however your case only consider's the AVERAGE rate. The most accurate chance drop is instantaneous, so @ the time of the kill only. this is what everyone is trying to figure out. Hence drop chance is the correct term. I think everyone needs a maths lesson on "rates". Rate: the change in value with respect to time or any other independent variable. A good example is the amount of water flowing into a bucket. Say the rate of water in is 5mL/s. This means that every second 5mls goes in the bucket. A more relevant example would be 0.2mL entering the bucket every second. Every 5 seconds we have 1mL. For the goblin thing, we can't have 0.2 daggers each kill. If we plot the points on a graph however, we will see that for every 5 monster killed, there is 1 dagger. The gradient = the rate (sorry for being technical), = 0.2 = 1/5 = rate
  13. Killing anything but yourself I'm not good @ this topic but the mort myre shrooms are good. Killing abyssal demons is probably better, the whip prices are rising
  14. I registered here just to distinguish the two terms drop "rate" and "chance" I was appalled at many of users responses to the drop rate of a draconic visage thread[now locked]. There were a handful of people who got the terms correctly, but were attacked by ignorant posters making them look like fools (the irony I know). The ignorant posters reasoning however is correct, it's just the terms they have mixed up. Drop rate: The definition of drop rate can be put simply as the monsters you have to kill before receiving the desired item. I.e, there is a linear relationship between amount of desired item and amount of monsters killed. So say if the drop rate of a bronze dagger by a goblin is 1/5[example, not real data]. This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger. It can't be the 1st, 3rd,etc-only the fifth. Drop chance: The definition of this is basically probability. This is the most correct term for the item dropping term chance predicament in that thread. Using the goblin example again, say the drop chance is 20%, Then EACH goblin I kill there is a 20% chance of it dropping the dagger. This chance is used every single goblin that I kill. If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger. I could get 5,4,3,2 ,1 even 0. The 5th kill doesn't guarrantee that I'll get the dagger. So I hope you guys now know the distinction
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