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Smapla
Smapla
Member Since 12 Jul 2005Offline Last Active Aug 14 2011 04:17 PM
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In Topic: Stop making only video guide
05 August 2011  02:26 PM
In Topic: Post all RS Screenshots, Videos, and Sounds here!
31 July 2011  05:12 PM
Without opening any bird nest: around a few gp more than 50m.
How much was that in total?
I can't remember when I filled my coffins for the first time, almost 2 years ago..
I've let the approval rating drop for months to 30% often, but still this is my income today:
Free 99 firemaking ftw?
Or 1k bird nests?
still have to open + crush 1k nests though. I'm a little bit pissed I only gained 1k nests though should've gotten more but apparently there's a hidden cap!
I just emptied my kingdom out after 34 months and also had only 999 nests
In Topic: Drop rate and drop chance
15 July 2011  01:40 PM
Oh dear, i just read this and this confirms that noone can comprehend my posts. This thread can be locked deleted or whatever, I'm done trying to teach people.
If I kill X goblins (X > infinity)
I get X/5 daggers
(I could say "if I kill infinite amount of goblins, I will get infinity/5 daggers, but that'd be wrong)This will settle the confusion
No, this won't.
My low tolerance of ignorance is most likely why I'm not inclined to do teaching @ univeresity.
Your original post makes claims which contradict eachother (or are worded very poorly), so you either do not understand what you are talking about, or you are not good at communicating it.
In Topic: Drop rate and drop chance
12 July 2011  08:45 PM
This thread is filled with idiots who don't understand what the OP is saying.
OP is still wrong. The problem is that barely anyone in this thread understands WHY the OP is wrong.
I registered here just to distinguish the two terms drop "rate" and "chance"
I was appalled at many of users responses to the drop rate of a draconic visage thread[now locked]. There were a handful of people who got the terms correctly, but were attacked by ignorant posters making them look like fools (the irony I know). The ignorant posters reasoning however is correct, it's just the terms they have mixed up.
Drop rate: The definition of drop rate can be put simply as the monsters you have to kill before receiving the desired item. I.e, there is a linear relationship between amount of desired item and amount of monsters killed. So say if the drop rate of a bronze dagger by a goblin is 1/5[example, not real data]. This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger. It can't be the 1st, 3rd,etconly the fifth.
Drop chance: The definition of this is basically probability. This is the most correct term for the item dropping term chance predicament in that thread. Using the goblin example again, say the drop chance is 20%, Then EACH goblin I kill there is a 20% chance of it dropping the dagger. This chance is used every single goblin that I kill. If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger. I could get 5,4,3,2 ,1 even 0. The 5th kill doesn't guarrantee that I'll get the dagger.
So I hope you guys now know the distinction
Besides what I've highlighted in red, the only other big issue I see with the post is the internal inconsistency.
This would mean every 5th goblin i kill I will then receive a bronze dagger.
If I kill 5 goblins, it doesn't mean I will definitely get one dagger.
In Topic: Drop rate and drop chance
12 July 2011  07:06 PM
I've never heard the term drop chance used before.
For every monster with a set of possible drops D1, D2, ... Dn, each drop has a probability P1, P2, ... Pn of being selected upon the death of the monster, of being the drop actually given to the player. The sum of the probabilities, P1 + P2 + ... Pn = 1, because some drop must be chosen (though some monsters can drop nothing, that essentially means one of the drops is a nulldrop).
As you have described it, you are incorrect in your definition of 'drop rate'. There is no number of monsters you can kill to guarantee a certain drop (excluding, obviously, bugs or '100%' drops). The same concept applies to something like a coin, where you might be 'unlucky' and flip tails a great number of times in a row.
However, as you kill more and more of a monster, the chance of never having obtained some particular drop D decreases. This is because if the probability of obtaining a drop D is P, then the probability of not obtaining the drop D, will of course be the sum total of the probabilities of obtaining any other drop, which is 1  P (since the total probabilities is 1). Since 0 < P < 1, we have that 0 < 1P < 1. The chance of not getting the drop D after killing a monster n times will then be (1P)^n. Anyone who has taken algebra will know that repeated multiplication of a number between 0 and 1 results in a smaller number. Essentially, though 1P (the chance of not getting the desired drop) might be very probable, the chance of not getting the drop a large number of times is not very probable.
It is often said that you might kill a monster a million times and never obtain the drop you are looking for. This is true, in fact the probability of not obtaining a drop D with 'droprate' P in a million kills will be (1P)^1000000. Since 1P is not zero, this quantity will never be zero, and thus always has a chance of occurring.
Edited for clarity.
yeah all so good, but since they are indepedent events, not getting the drop will not make you have more chance on next one... it will be the same
it's like an dice, i want to get a 6, if i throw one time and get a 2, that won't make me have more chance to get an 6.... it will stay the same
Yes this is true, it does tend to make people angry though when you say something like 'how many you've killed so far is irrelevant, if you go kill xx more of them you'll have a 90% chance of getting the drop though'.
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