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jdelacroix

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  1. Congrats PaperBag! Glad to see you back on top.
  2. Hi. I'd just like to say that K Ghia is amazing and StarViv is the best dger ever. Oh, and I <3 Capi.
  3. I didn't overanalyze it - it's just simple math. I realize that chances vary very widely, and I quoted my source for the min/max (guide for managing your kingdom). Even with a standard distribution, there is still an average. It may not be exactly the average of min and max but it's going to be pretty darn close. Put it this way - my numbers would have to be off by at least 33% for me to be wrong about herbs being most profitable, and I know they're not THAT off. Saying "gaussian distribution" or "binomial distribution" is meaningless without some variables to go into it. Both of those vary widely depending on their respective inputs. (I certainly hope you're not just throwing big words around, as I have a math degree and know exactly what they are). The only assumption I'm making is that the distribution curve is roughly symmetical around the mean, which is a very good assumption, especially if each herb has a specific % probability.
  4. Good luck. Phoenix feathers aren't tradable so they won't be used extensively for training herblore. Are any of these new potions going to be made extensively for herblore training? Aside from hardcore slayers, campers and charm hunters, I don't see them being used enough for someone to powertrain with them seeing as any potion unused is considered a loss... Until the day of the update, it would have been incredibly cheap xp. Magic potions at 1-1.5k per, plus a mud rune is 1.7k. XP = 250. That's 7 gp/xp - less than half the cost of brews, and 1/3 the cost of premade brews - and 40% faster than premade brews too. So yes, it's definitely worth it. I was going to use premade brews to get 200m XP, but with this update, well, we'll have to see where the market settles. Extreme attack potions were similar - a few weeks ago they were 1k ea, avantoe 1k ea. 2k total cost, 220 xp. That's 10 gp/xp - more than the extreme magic, but still a bargain compared to brews.
  5. Good luck. Phoenix feathers aren't tradable so they won't be used extensively for training herblore.
  6. So, I did a bit of quick math, using a guide that approximates how many herbs per day you get with a fully loaded Miscellania/Etceteria kingdom. Here are the numbers for an average day's yield: Herb----Min-----Max-----Average-Price---Value Tarr.---10------17------13.5----292-----3942 Harr.---8-------20------14------1142----15988 Ranarr--1-------5-------3-------9835----29505 Irit----5-------13------9-------3340----30060 Avantoe-7-------11------9-------1317----11853 Kwuarm--3-------9-------6-------6579----39474 Cad.----2-------5-------3.5-----2411----8438.5 Lant.---1-------4-------2.5-----2859----7147.5 Dwarf.--1-------6-------3.5-----4660----16310 Total value in GP: 162718 With herbs at full, that costs 50k gp per day (the remaining 25k gp per day going elsewhere). That means that herbs, as of today's prices, are an incredible 325% profit, compared to 200% on most other items. Note that this doesn't include herb seeds, which are also skyrocketing lately, and could boost profit upwards of 350%, depending on your luck. The prices above are based on today's GE mid prices - most are still at max, so this is a bit of a conservative effort. It doesn't take much intelligence to figure out what to do with this information :). Thanks Dan for tip about tag.
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