agamemnus
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Posts posted by agamemnus
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Interesting thought, Qeltar. (BTW, did you receive the email I sent you?)
I think this high-alching of armor, etc. is probably just temporary though, since people will stop smithing more armor/weapons/etc. now because the price per bar of the armor is under the high alch price of the best item to high alch. (r2h) People'll smith r2h's/plates/etc. much more now to get the most per bar.
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Yes, you're right, it's a vertical curve. You got me there. I guess I need to leave in shame now.
:wall:
Still, I'm not quite sure about your equation... I'll look at it again later. According to the supply/demand curve, you still have a set price and a set quantity with a vertical curve. In reality, a customer willing to buy at ANY price will pay ANY (infinite) price. :-k
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I don't have a source. It's an assumption that's based on (what I think is) a reasonable interpretation of the constant amount of items in apparently all general stores. Where do these items appear? It would be "absurd" that Jagex does a whole bunch of work to create randomly appearing items in the general stores, and it would likewise be "absurd" for so many players to sell directly to the general stores at the current awful prices they give.
But players have been selling directly to the general stores for years now... just to clear bank space usually, sometimes for items like oak and willow longs because there's nothing else to do with them. So why are you calling it absurd that they would continue to do so? "the constant amount of items in apparently all general stores." The amount of items in the player stock of general stores isn't constant... I'm looking at the amount in Varrock general store change as I type this sentence. It's all obviously stuff that people are selling to clear out space in their banks. Not to mention, that post above that mentions Jagex apparently clearly stated they were not taking items from the GE and putting them in stores. So, this assumption is clearly unfounded, and as your entire argument relied upon it, it's invalid.
I have seen WAY more than a small amount in varrock. Bars, stacks of armor, etc. I think it remains to be seen.
A regular supply and demand curve in what is called "perfect competition" in economics is an X: the price is determined by the crossing of the supply and demand curve. Each curve determines how much of the product (X-axis) a buyer/seller buys/sells at the given price (Y-axis).
And what effect would a small number of buyers willing to buy at any price have on that graph? It would translate the entire demand curve a small amount to the right. How exactly is that throwing the regular graph out the window?
I never said it was a small amount of buyers. Basically under my theory, you have two demand and supply curves. The buyers see the seller curve as it is after the general store is done with it. The sellers see two curves... the one I just mentioned, and the seller/GS curve. The GS curve doesn't move with price, so the "buyer's" curve is a horizontal line. You might be able to combine the curves by combining the slope of both -- one is 0, one is X (somehow) to get the equilibrium point. But, that point is surely above the price without a general store taking stock out.
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There are a lot of flaws here basically because it seems you have some problems understanding the "game" variables here that does not exist in real life.
That was uncalled for.
At the very top top top of my head there is one major thing you are not considering.
When a real life person dies, all his belongings and wealth get transfered over to his family or to the government. So everything he does in the world is still in the world after his death. A world that "add's". The empire state building don't just disappear because the workers that built it died.
Now this is not the case in Runescape. You can talk about money sinks such as construction and repairing barrow armor. But that is nothing compared to the money sink of quitting players.
A player who quits in Runescape don't automatically transfer his belongings onto the hands of people that are still active in the game. But everything he have in his bank, everything he have earned his whole RS life is buried with him. Or just deleted if you like that term better.
:boohoo:
Well, if there is a constant stream of quitters and new players then I suppose that could decrease inflation, but we can only speculate as to how much. It would not halt inflation altogether. You are assuming that each player quits/is banned with a hoard of gold and that's it. However, they also quit with tradable items that are removed from the game.
Regardless, even if each person who quit only had gp in his RS bank account, and each person who entered RS had nothing, then nevertheless the selling of items to stores still raises the average price of said items, simply because the general store would act as an extra fraction of a buyer (and one not concerned about his spending) for (real player) buyer in the game.
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Flammacor,
* The general store takes either a constant amount, a percentage of total available goods, or a percentage of the last update's sold goods (any way is fine) from the Grand Exchange at a minimum prices.
Do you have a source for this assumption? Unless Jagex said this was true, there's really no reason at all to make it. This assumption is the linchpin of your entire argument, and it seems rather absurd. If Jagex really did do this, it would be a horrible decision on their part.
I don't have a source. It's an assumption that's based on (what I think is) a reasonable interpretation of the constant amount of items in apparently all general stores. Where do these items appear? It would be "absurd" that Jagex does a whole bunch of work to create randomly appearing items in the general stores, and it would likewise be "absurd" for so many players to sell directly to the general stores at the current awful prices they give.
The regular supply and demand curve is thrown out the window when a buyer who buys X amount of goods irrespective of price is introduced.I'm not sure what you mean, there are already examples of goods with inflexible demand in the real world. Seems to me that adding some inflexibility to the demand in RS might make the curves more similar to the real world demand curves, not less.
A regular supply and demand curve in what is called "perfect competition" in economics is an X: the price is determined by the crossing of the supply and demand curve. Each curve determines how much of the product (X-axis) a buyer/seller buys/sells at the given price (Y-axis).
You have a major flaw in your theory.
Your only taking into account that gold enters the economy from the Buy-X.
It also leaves the economy that way too.
I have yet to sell 1 thing to the NPC stores, however I have bought loads of arrows.
While money is entering the economy through the general stores, money is also leaving the economy the same way.
I suppose that is possible. However, for these items, wouldn't most players actually buy from the GE, where the price is cheaper than the general store price?
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I don't know. Is this recent behavior?
I've never been accused for RWT because I was wealthy. In fact, people loved it when I showed them hordes of items (back in 2005..)
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Thanks for your reply,
Any other item (one that takes a player's time to acquire) will increase in price considerably, simply because there will be more gold available.Major flaw:
Prove to me that gold supply, when above a level at which it can act as a unit of account (i.e., eliminates the need for commodity money), causes inflation in Runescape as it increases.
This isn't RW economics, this is Runescape. When people put money into their RSbanks, it's not the same as putting it into a real bank- it not only does not exponentially increase the money supply, but by being stored away it is essentially taken out of the economy. In real life, banks loan out this money, which gets spent and put into other banks, and loaned out again, and spent, and loaned, etc.... new dollars end up going pretty far in the real world market.
In real life (before banks existed) an increase in the amount of currency increased the money supply. Some players put his gold into their account, but others use it to buy items from other players. This shouldn't change regardless of the money supply of gp.
Basically, in real life there are maybe 250B dollars in circulation, but trillions of dollars are in the economy. How? Simply, the way the banking system works. Does Runescape have this? No. New money doesn't go very far in this game. In fact, there could be a couple 100 trillion gp in the game, but because of savings, people quitting, and losses of gp, there could essentially be only a trillion or two in circulation. The complete opposite of the real world money supply.
I completely agree.
So again, not only prove to me that an increase in GP would increase prices (because I have never seen this happen in this game in my life- people just store away extra cash), but also show to me how your MA in economics can really help you when it comes to understanding such an alien economy as that of Runescape.
:\ Economics is the study of the efficient allocation of scarce resources. It isn't limited to the real world economies or stock markets.
Prices will not infinitely go up because of the construction money sink (and the potential new Summoning money sink), but they will remain at much higher prices than currently due to this extra money source from general stores.The amount of money added to the game by alching and this addition are magnitudes higher than what Construction currently takes out. It's not even worth considering Construction when it comes to inflation, it does so little.
You would still have to agree with me here that construction (like some other things as repairing barrows equipment) is a money sink.
As to your demand that I correlate the gp supply in Runescape to the actual price of items, I have a few arguments off the top of my head:
* All new (non-rare) good/collectible items first have a very high price, steeply decline in price, and then slowly plateau downwards. If you consider the same argument for items as for gold (assume the gold supply is the same throughout), you will see that as more of the item exists in Runescape, the less it costs.
* According to basic economics, (all other things equal) if the amount of money in the system increases, the price of items goes up. (simply because there's more of it)
* It's true that high-alching adds a significant amount of gold to the economy, but that doesn't negate the possibility that this gold is being siphoned off to NPCs for the purchase of rares. It seems that prices have been at an equilibrium for months now even with high alching going on.
* Likewise, this is adding a direct gold source for all markets in the game.
* Throughout the game's history, before money sinks are added to the game (more runes... barrows... construction... infinite runes/other infinite quantities of items from shops) the price of items has always went up. After money sinks are added, the prices went down quickly, and then started going back up, but more slowly than before.
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With the release of the Grand Exchange, Jagex tied Grand Exchange prices to the general store.
To summarize this thread: I believe that Runescape will experience a period of inflation soon, and this inflation will not end until Jagex changes the Grand Exchange mechanics.
My theory is based on a few assumptions:
* The general store prices are tied to the Grand Exchange.
* The general store takes either a constant amount, a percentage of total available goods, or a percentage of the last update's sold goods (any way is fine) from the Grand Exchange at a minimum prices.
* Items that disappear from the general store don't go back to the Grand Exchange but disappear from the game.
* The analysis below does not factor in any changing amount of bots in the game or any intervention by Jagex.
So here is the theory, coming from someone with an M.A. in economics:
The regular supply and demand curve is thrown out the window when a buyer who buys X amount of goods irrespective of price is introduced. That buyer is the general store. This means that, unlike regular buyers, the general store will not reduce its quantity bought if the price goes up. The general store simply buys a portion and that gold is added to the gold surplus of players, adding to a constant inflation of products. The price will keep going up for any good that does not take a fixed gold cost to produce.
The only things that will stop the price from going up above a certain level (excepting Jagex intervention) is the fixed "infinite quantity" price of various items (like runes) and the fixed gold cost of some other items. (like any supplies gained from Miscellania) Any other item (one that takes a player's time to acquire) will increase in price considerably, simply because there will be more gold available.
Prices will not infinitely go up because of the construction money sink (and the potential new Summoning money sink), but they will remain at much higher prices than currently due to this extra money source from general stores.
"But Aga, the prices are low, so your theory is wrong."
After the GE was released, prices have decreased due to a lower spread between buyers buy and producers' selling prices due to the new ease of buying/selling items on the Grand Exchange. Each new day, however, the General Stores across Runescape are adding hundreds of millions, if not billions of GP to the economy. Each item that takes time to produce is slowly being affected by this inflation.
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All you can do is a limited poll, 'cause most Runescapers wouldn't be able to give you even the simplest data, like their weekly income... 'cause it changes depending on time spent and many other variables. A poll is what I did for my paper more than a year ago.
>Inflation (CPI and PPI)
*Can't measure CPI without a basket of essential/average goods.
*Can't measure average price because no auction/"goods" market exists.
*PPI is also very hard to measure because you would need to determine the best method to produce the basket (assuming you had it) and set a production price on it, in terms of time.
>GDP (current and forecast), GDP per capita
* Don't know how many peeps to count, or whether to count doubles etc. Can't figure out total production..
* Money supply
Again you can't figure this out, and also definition of money supply varies on how the "money" is used... there is no interest "bank" in Runescape, except phats....
* Commodity value
Again ....
* Income inequality
Omfg.
>Maybe Jagex could help us out by providing some of the data?
I give it as much chance as a snowball's chance in hell...
What you could consider is focusing on a limited part of the economy and/or describe the economy in terms of how it works and the relevant units of measure... units more relevant than in the "real products and services economy"... For instance, you could describe how peoples' RS wages come about: skill lvl, craftiness, and trading say runecrafting products for mining products.
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This is B.S. How unlucky can you get when C.S. hasn't replied to your last 25 pleas for help?
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Wolfboy, I think that one abandons the whole concept of "Don't believe everything you read" by assuming someone in "power" is trustworthy.
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Can someone explain to me why this is stickied? Fear of Jagex, or what? Is tipit going to regard the first post as mantra from now on or what? The thread poster has some points, but as I explained in my first post here, he is not correct in his assumptions.
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Basically true. I agreed with you until you got to this point.
If youÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ve never, ever in your life made a mistake or a misjudgement, then maybe youÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢re entitled to criticise Jagex, but the rest of us need to take a chill pill, and get on with playing the game by the rules. That way, Jagex can get out from under the deluge of whining and complaining and concentrate on making the game better and dealing with the difficulties so much success so quickly brings to a company.
When a company cheats me of my money, they are not entitled to praise or respect. If Jagex sets up a system that bans paying members and Jagex cannot control this system, then Jagex should either hire enough customer support, not accept more members or change their rules. Because, last time I checked, just saying "I tried really hard not to" doesn't cut it when you're accused of stealing other people's money. Unfair bannings are just that.
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No you are not, Dr_Elephant, the only one who read that tipit didn't remove it because of Jagex's threat. A lot of people cynically assume that it really was because of the thread, though we really can't pry into peoples' minds and know for certain.
With the new 100th quest to write about, why rehash old garbage?
To make a long story short:
As a previous member permanently banned from the Jagex forums due to Jagex's inability to think, I was no longer willing to pay for half the game. With that, I am unable to comment on the 100th quest, however entertaining it might have been. I am sure that it is the same for people who are banned. Let me also add that I was banned from the forums on my last day of membership. (I had already decided to quit because of Jagex's complete stonewalling of any of my customer support messages)
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IF anything, it is the banned players who should sue Jagex.
Also, it's ridiculous and pointless to argue about some supposedly biased or non biased article when most of us haven't even read it. How are we supposed to judge? I'd like to read it and judge for myself.
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If you haven't realized yet, it's all happening because Jagex is focusing on a particular demographic, and shutting out everyone else. Even if Jagex gets .5% of all the 7 year olds in the developed world each year to pay them $5 a month, they are still rich.
another horrible change to the GE: sarcasm comes to life
in General Discussion
Posted
I remember people being sarcastic in the Runescape forums (and perhaps here as well?) about Jagex limiting the amount of trades people can make. Well, it's not just sarcasm now. I don't know if it has been like this from the beginning but it would sure explain a lot of the problems people have been having with the GE:
INCOMPREHENSIBLE. #-o