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Market Discussion


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#1
Socrates
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Socrates

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Due to the existence of a Rares/3a/Spirit Shield topic, yet with no place to discuss general market sentiment it appears only logical to have a topic in where that it is encouraged as opposed to being somewhat off-topic.
Therefore this thread has been created with the purpose of discussing general fluctuations in the market whilst maintaining a certain degree of chivalry, that is by not infringing on manipulation rules and what have you.
The general thread should cover discussion as opposed to instruction which could lead to people trying to manipulate others through bad advice. Please note that any discussion towards Party hats/3a/Spirit Shields should belong on it's appropriate thread although, naturally, there will be some cross-over.

In order to get the ball rolling I will voice my predictions on the effects of returning free-trade/wilderness:

As we all know it doesn't take a degree in economics to work out that there will be an increase in people wishing to PK and as such that will increase demand for many items.
However the first distinction must be made between items that are consumed and those that are not. In the former case I would expect to see an increased equilibrium price in items that are consumed, such as sharks, runes, potions and arrows. This is because of their very nature in that once they are used they are more or less gone (with the slight exception that some arrows are returned).

However, with other items such as whips, barrows sets, amulets, dragon boots, etc, although there will be an initial price increase due to the increased demand, because these items are not lost as they are in the incumbent PvP system, price will gradually fall, note the price of whips before the PvP removal in 2007.

Furthermore, with the reduction of statuettes GP will enter the game at a slower rate, assuming that Jagex don't change/add anything, therefore decreasing inflation, hence making money worth slightly more. As a result I would expect to see raw items that are not directly related to the PvP system gradually falling in price, that said I would not expect it to be drastic, except in the first few days perhaps when a general focus moves towards PvP and away from current daily activities.

Naturally, it is hard to discuss a future update without an awful lot of knowledge over what the update will actually entail, however this isn't to be taken as gospel just my opinion on it.
What are your thoughts and have I got anything wrong or missed anything blatantly obvious?

Feel free to discuss any items in the market, with the aforementioned exception, and perhaps I and any others who wish to join in can help answer your questions.
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