Request: YOUR Blue Dragon Logs!

[Flying_V]

First let me tell you a bit about myself. I am a college student majoring in Mathematics, and I am fascinated with statistics. I wish to know, for the sake of knowledge, the exact probability of any particular drop for one of the popular runescape monsters, the Blue Dragon.

 

 

 

Therefore I am currently compiling a HUGE amount of data on Blue Dragon drops. The goal is to be able to accurately predict the relative odds of any item being dropped by a Blue Dragon. Here's how you can help.

 

 

 

1. Kill 100 Blue Dragons

 

 

 

2. Log each drop. Dont include d-bones or d-hide, DO include how many coins are dropped each time, not just how many you have at the end. to help, the numbers should be 11, 44, 132, or 200 most of the time.

 

 

 

3. Post your list here.

 

 

 

4. enjoy your hard-earned rewards.

 

 

 

 

 

Also, I would like you to indicate whether or not you were wearing a ring of wealth during training, and as an added bonus, I am going to once and for all determine how much the ring improves the odds of any single drop.

 

 

 

Oh, and also exclude Clue Scrolls from your log, as they drop in addition to another drop and are considered outside the probability of the other drops. (which is why a ring of wealth does not get you more clues)

 

 

 

I will start off with a log of my own to show you exactly what i mean.

 

 

 

Muchas Gracias to the following people for their support:

 

 

 

Pool30295

 

DegenerateX

[Flying_V]

1. Coins-132

 

2. Coins-200

 

3. Herb-Marrentill

 

4. Coins-132

 

5. Coins-44

 

6. Coins-132

 

7. Coins-44

 

8. Coins-44

 

9. Nats-15

 

10. Mith axe

 

11. Coins-11

 

12. Coins-200

 

13. Rune Dagger

 

14. Uncut ruby

 

15. Coins-132

 

16. Coins-200

 

17. Herb-Tarromin

 

18. Coins-11

 

19. Coins-132

 

20. Waters-150

 

21. Rune Dagger

 

22. Coins-200

 

23. Waters-75

 

24. Coins-44

 

25. Coins-132

 

26. Bass

 

27. Steel Legs

 

28. Fires-37

 

29. Coins-132

 

30. Coins-200

 

31. Coins-132

 

32. Coins-44

 

33. Herb-marentill

 

34. Coins-44

 

35. Waters-75

 

36. Coins-200

 

37. Coins-200

 

38. Coins-132

 

39. Uncut Sapphire

 

40. Coins-44

 

41. Herb-marentill

 

42. Coins-132

 

43. Mith axe

 

44. Coins-11

 

45. Coins-44

 

46. Coins-44

 

47. Coins-44

 

48. Herb-Harralander

 

49. Coins-44

 

50. Coins-44

 

51. Nats-15

 

52. Herb-Guam

 

53. Coins-132

 

54. Coins-44

 

55. Coins-44

 

56. Herb-Guam

 

57. Waters-75

 

58. Coins-132

 

59. Coins-11

 

60. Coins-200

 

61. Mith kite

 

62. Coins-44

 

63. Rune Dagger

 

64. Coins-132

 

65. Herb-Guam

 

66. Bass

 

67. Bass

 

68. Coins-44

 

69. Coins-44

 

70. Coins-200

 

71. Fires-37

 

72. Coins-132

 

73. Coins-132

 

74. Coins-132

 

75. Waters-75

 

76. Addy full helm

 

77. Nats-15

 

78. Uncut ruby

 

79. Coins-44

 

80. Steel B Axe

 

81. Waters-75

 

82. Coins-132

 

83. Coins-44

 

84. Fires-37

 

85. Herb-Irit

 

86. Herb-Guam

 

87. Laws-3

 

88. Coins-132

 

89. Waters-75

 

90. Coins-200

 

91. Herb-Marentill

 

92. Herb-Cadantine

 

93. Coins-44

 

94. Laws-3

 

95. Coins-44

 

96. Coins-44

 

97. Coins-200

 

98. Coins-44

 

99. Coins-44

 

100. Coins-132

[DegenerateX]

I currently haven't started training on blue dragons so I can't give you a list yet. I am thinking of however starting in about week and will edit this post once I have the list. Always great seeing people tackle questions like this, but sad seeing them then being stopped because of lack of support.

 

 

 

Anyways hope to have the drop list up soon, and check out my blog O:)

[Berrakus]

One big problem that I see with this is that we don't know what factors influence the drops and one of these factors may be leaving the area and returning (this may "reset" your odds). Since no one is going to kill 100 Blue Dragons without banking, you may want to switch to a monster that people routinely kill at least 100 at a time without leaving the area to help eliminate some variables.

[death_goat2]

One big problem that I see with this is that we don't know what factors influence the drops and one of these factors may be leaving the area and returning (this may "reset" your odds). Since no one is going to kill 100 Blue Dragons without banking, you may want to switch to a monster that people routinely kill at least 100 at a time without leaving the area to help eliminate some variables.

 

 

 

That is a valid point but pures do it all the time just to train (from safe spot), alot will collect bones and hides but some will just bury bones and collect coins and such

[Flying_V]

no no, you guys misunderstand. every item has a certain probability of dropping on any given kill. odds dont "reset," they simply exist. you could kill any number of them, and on the next kill, have exactly the same chance of getting any item as on any other kill.

 

 

 

I want to know what those chances are exactly.

 

 

 

 

 

p.s. any number of Blue Dragons logged is a great help. I put 100 up there just because thats what I started with.

[xlippsx]

just got a slayer task of 129 blue drags :)

 

So far (in order):

 

1. 132 coins

 

2. 44 coins

 

3. Guam

 

4. 200 coins

 

5. 200 coins

 

6. Tarromin

 

7. 132 coins

 

8. 132 coins

 

9. 75 water runes

 

10. 200 coins

 

11. Harlander

 

12. 132 coins

 

13. Bass (un-noted)

 

(will continue to update)

[timeoutsmad]

the drops are random, but have fun anyways :)