Thorgmir
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Posts posted by Thorgmir
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Kalphite King should have dropped the kalphite warrior thingy armour form Solomon's as a Lv. 90 set of armour instead of having it be a cosmetic reskin, and Ascension dungeon would have been perfect for Lv. 90 ranged armour, but noooo.
People whined enough when the kalphite king was released that only melee got level 90 weapons. Can you imagine the reaction if melee got level 90 weapons an level 90 armor? No, they picked the right way to do this, with level 90 weapons only until all three combat styles have them, then going back and introducing level 90 armors.
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I do believe the question wasn't PoP vs. Nex. It was assuming that Nex gear is not an option, are there any real uses for PoP armor? (And if yes, how much better is it than elite void at said places.)
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I'm looking to make a final push and collect enough charms for 99 summoning and was wondering what the best way is. I am on a budget, so please nothing expensive like barraging rock lobs. Are chaos tunnel waterfiends still fastest, or have things changed?
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Herb farming still makes a lot of money. That's about it, though.
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Do not get a speed captain. It will be useless in any region after you get the rudder upgrade. Definitely do try and get a second seafaring captain. The last can be morale or combat (it doesn't really matter which), and you can also use it as a rotating spot to try and maximize positive traits. The most important thing is just to try and get a second seafaring captain.
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I've been doing a lot of herb farming lately, and am starting to run low on my juju farming pots. I had a rather painful experience collecting ugune seeds before, so I'm hoping to find a better way to do it this time around. I despise hunting, and hope to do as little of it as possible. I do not mind training firemaking in the Jadinko lair,but if I redeem my favor for seeds, what should I be attracting to get the most ugune seeds? Any tips or advice for how to make this process as painless as possible would be much appreciated.
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I did more or less the same thing a while ago. Here's what you should do:
1. Start farming herbs right away, and I mean right away. It's a great cash cow, and you should try and milk it as much as possible. You can get toadflax seeds for less than 1k each and turn a profit ~150k each herb run (~5 minutes of work). See this guide for more details on how profitable different herbs are. If you haven't already, do My Arm's Big Adventure for the additional herb patch and make lots of juju farming potions.
2. Train to 80+ dungeoneering to get a chaotic maul. Do farm runs every few dungeons.
3. Max slayer and combat skills, while continuing to farm herbs. You should have enough money from herb farming by this point to max prayer and summoning as well.
4. PvM for more cash, if desired. You should be making 2M/day from herbs though, so it may not be necessary.
5. Re-evaluate new stats and bank, and come up with a plan for the next phase of maxing.
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Five bucks says the secret Jagex event on February 21 is a surprise release of the new skill. "Congrats on 200M in all skills... oh wait, you're one short."
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I don't mind discussing this. Not much else to talk about.
Some considerations against merchants:
1) You have limited amounts of crew. Merchants might have a better expected return on resource missions but they are not useful on story/scroll/special/trait missions which make up a large proportion of the missions. Other crew members are helpful on all missions so that slot might be put to better use with one of them.
2) When you're dealing with trade resources like plate and chi, you're only getting 3-5 per mission anyway. Since these resources are rounded down, the expected return with using merchants is greatly reduced. On a 3 plate mission a merchant that gives 30% doesn't actually help does it? 3 x 1.3 = 3.9, rounded down to 3.
3) Failing doesn't feel good. We play this game because we enjoy it on some level and success tastes far sweeter. If I can succeed 4/4 missions and get 12 plates versus succeeding 3/4 missions for 12 plates, I'd feel better about the former option.
That's not to say merchants aren't useful. But it's not a simple expected value calculation.
Some good points. I'm not sure enough to say much about the best number of merchants to have, because there are definitely missions where they aren't useful. Personally, I have three merchants for four ships, as I usually have at least one ship on one of those missions. To me, four seems excessive and two seems not quite enough, but that's quite subjective. A few posts back I mentioned the problem of having a merchant on a three trade good mission, but once you get to the Pincers, you get four trade good missions, and that gives you a bonus plate, which I think merits a merchant.
Failure doesn't feel good, and if all else were equal, I would agree with your third point. But I don't think all else is equal. For trade good missions in the Pincers, the question is more like this: would you rather succeed 9/10 and get 36 plates, or succeed 8/10 and get 40 plates? I would definitely choose the latter.
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So is the consensus that after maul, I should get the shields and staff only?
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Just to add more specifics to my previous post, I modeled this and found that using a sample size of 100 missions (roughly 2/3 of what it takes to advance from the Bowl to the Pincers), an average mission requirement of 16000, and an average loss of 1800 "skill points" from adding a merchant (roughly a level 8 Bowl crew member, and assuming you get no morale boost from the merchant), you will come out ahead in jade 99.7% of the time by using a merchant, by an average of 3085 jade over the course of the hundred missions (assuming 250 jade reward/mission and 90% success rate without a merchant). The 95% CI is from 975 extra jade to 5025 extra jade. You definitely do not need thousands of missions to be sure of improved results.
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To me this probability math has a few flaws in its considerations.
1) It ignores the factor of time - a failed voyage doesn't just mean less resources it comes at a high time cost.
2) It ignores the practical resource cost of failure - ship repair charges and dead crew costs impact on overall outcome, especially when you consider a crew death not only costs resources to replace it has an ongoing negative effect whilst that replacement is levelled up.
3) It is all very well in theory, but as with most complex probability/statistical odds theory and reality rarely conform taking thousands and thousands of interactions to trend towards the expected; so for a singular user this model is unlikely to play out correctly. It could work out much better than someone using no merchant BUT it could also end up much worse.
I'll address these points in reverse order:
3. You vastly underestimate the power of the central limit theorem. The variance of the mean result is extremely small after, say, 100 voyages, which is a rather low proportion of the total you will have to do. I can very confidently say this will work out better for you, and no, you do not need thousands and thousands of trials to "trend toward expected." In any case, there is variance with and without merchants, and you could end up worse than expected without a merchant, too. Please do the math before making bogus claims about probability theory.
2. While it's true, I ignored this, the effects are rather limited. While I have only my own data to rely upon, I have never lost a crew member (and if you have lifeboats, you don't even risk them), and have never been charged what I would consider a significant amount for ship repairs. By assuming my own mediocrity, I can only conclude that such serious costs are rare and not a significant factor. This would then only become a factor when you have no marginal benefit from acquiring more resources (aka, you already have all upgrades and more resources than you know what to do with).
1. The time cost is also irrelevant, and in fact doesn't exist. There are two kinds of time cost to consider: in terms of lost resources, and in terms of lost distance. The cost in resource acquisition, however, is already taken into account in the prior calculation. The cost in distance acquisition, while seemingly important, is in fact, not worth considering, because you gain the same distance regardless of whether a mission succeeds or fails.
So none of these objections have any weight. I concede that if you no longer care about resources, there's no benefit to having a merchant on a resources mission, but that's just common sense. In every other case, which is all the time until you're in the Pincers and maxed all upgrades, you should definitely have a merchant on all your missions.
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How much of an improvement is the chaotic staff over, say, a staff of light?
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I've recently started dungeoneering again and will soon be acquiring a lot of tokens. My question is what chaotics should I get, and in what order? I currently have just a rapier. I know I should get a maul, so no questions there. Is the crossbow still worth getting, and what about offhands, for both the rapier and the crossbow? And what about the shields? I plan on using this gear to alternate between slaying and PvM.
Please, in addition to any specific comments on any items, clearly indicate the priority of each of them (ie., maul > offhand rapier > chaotic kiteshield, etc.).
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I don't think three merchants is necessary at all, you rarely get three missions you want to use one on anyway. That's especially true after you maxed your stainless steel upgrades.
?????
If a merchant wasn't worth having on your boat, you're probably done with the Ports in the first place.
Get 4 merchants, never let them leave any ships.
Thats just no.
If the voyage is sub-100% you don't want a merchant, better to have a different unit for 100%.
I can see Quy's point though I would be of the opinion when you have basically 'finished' ports presumably you'd be able to 100% most trade good missions (which are kinda the only reason to still be there) so surely you would be wanting a merchant on most voyages at that point.
Absolutely not. Let me give you probability 101 right now. Specific lesson: expected value.
Our goal is to maximize the expected return of each mission. There are two factors contributing to the expected value: the probability of success (p) and the amount returned if successful (x). The relationship between them is simple: the expected return on a voyage, E(V), is equal to the probability of success times the amount returned when successful. Thus, E(V) = px.
We have two scenarios to consider: one with a merchant, one without a merchant. Without a merchant, suppose the best success rate we can get is P, and the expected return is X. With a merchant, the return given success increases to 1.3X. How much does p decrease due to the lack of a merchant? Well, suppose you lose 2k of unit stats (conservative overestimate), and the mission has requirements of 16k (roughly typical, though it doesn't matter much if this changes). Then that changes p from P to 0.875P, and thus E(V) = 0.875P(1.3X) = 1.1375PX. This is a roughly 14% increase in expected return by using a merchant.
Note that as mission requirements increase, it actually becomes more beneficial to use a merchant, as the decrease in p becomes smaller while the increase in x becomes larger.
TLDR: ALWAYS use a merchant, on ALL your voyages, except for voyages for 3 or fewer trade goods, where the effect will be rounded down to nothing.
You wouldn't want to use a merchant if it decreased your success by more than 30% (roughly, 1/1.3 to be precise), but there are no such missions.
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Does anyone know a fc or other way to find people to do primal hunts? Yes, I know I could just do floors normally, but there are a few items I'd like to try and get as quickly as possible.
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Here's a tip I found that may be useful to everyone else. Now that we're in the Bowl, and are no longer able to complete all the daily missions, reroll missions with low resource rewards. You will not run out of voyages, but can get a significant amount more jade this way.
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I imagine these are not the last level 90 weapons we'll see. There will be other bosses that drop 2h weapons, don't you worry. Besides, with half the people here complaining that Jagex released too many new melee weapons with this boss, and the other half are complaining that they didn't release enough, you know everybody's just impossible to satisfy, whatever Jagex does.
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If you want to run some calculations, be my guest. But I don't imagine you're going to find many people wanting to help with something that is absolutely useless practically.
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20 isn't a very large set. I used to remember how to calculate the chance of your particular data set showing up but the statistics math for doing that has escaped my memory, and the correct term to google for some information isn't coming to mind.
Basically one can calculate how likely it is (given the known expected probability function) that you will achieve the results you did. 100 sets would be better. In either case two facts:
1) probability of each ship doesn't depend on any previous or future ships
2) it is random. You only achieve the expected result 80% success (if all ships sent at 80% listed) over the long term as a limit of approaching an infinite sample size.
Hence the data set you got sucks, but isn't necessarily improbable yet (sample size has to increase dramatically before you can really make that claim)
A sample size of 20 is much more than sufficient to know there's something funny going on. The appropriate statistical model is called a binomial distribution, and the probability of four or fewer successes in a binomial model with N = 16 (he didn't post results for the latest four) and p = 0.8 (the lowest success rate on any mission) is approximately 0.0000033. This constitutes ample evidence that something is not right.
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Isn't he going for another record?
yes, as far as i know his record goal was to bank 200m farm via vinesweeper and 200m agi, he didn't know that the limit of the agi tickets was 50k (5m xp) back then, i think he still plays vinesweeper for another crazy record
199.5M thieving via summer sq'irk juice, maybe.
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THIS!I don't suppose they could have waited until we unlocked level 85 gear before releasing level 90 items?
PoPs have level 85 armor. This will be level 90 weapons. What's the problem?
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Here's a useful trick that I've found while doing my voyages. Unlock the third ship slot as soon as you can after entering the Scythe. Then, use your first two ships to keep doing Scythe missions, and use the third to do regular Arc/Skull/Hook voyages throughout the day. Your lower-tier voyage will be able to succeed with whatever crew members you aren't using on your Scythe voyages and will get you all the resources you need for port upgrades. Unless you get up in the middle of the night, you can't get through all your voyages in the Scythe each day anyway.
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Is there any difference between the subjugation top and Ahrim's robetop besides the prayer bonus?
Familiarization - best use
in Help and Advice
Posted
What's the best way to use the familiarization triple charm boost? Waterfiends seem to have been buffed significantly in this week's update and don't give charms quite as fast as they used to.