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Celery n Corn

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Posts posted by Celery n Corn

    25-September-2013 - Runescape Bonds

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The bond system as it is right now is destined to fail. It offers players the ability to buy gold (and membership / other Jagex pay-to-win stuff), but it offers no way for players to SELL gold. This means it will be impossible for bonds to find a long-term equilibrium price. They do not satisfy the solution which is provided by gold trading.

     

    The reason websites are able to sell gold to players is because they also buy gold from players. 99% of the RS Gold websites out there do NOT make their own gold. There is a misconception that these websites are gold farms; they are NOT. Gold farming and gold selling are completely separate businesses. It would be like saying Wal-Mart manufactures all of their own products. These websites buy from players at a lower rate and sell at a higher rate.

     

    Jagex states that 45-50% of the community currently partakes in RWT. Who knows how legitimate this number is, and how it was calculated, but the implied statement is that they wish to provide service to this 45-50% of the population. The fact is, the target customer-base for Jagex is the OTHER 50%, the ones who DO NOT currently buy gold. The portion of the community that already partakes on third party websites, etc. is very unlikely to switch over to buying / selling from Jagex unless the prices are competitive.

     

    Currently, the price for 1 bond is $5 USD. Their value on the Grand Exchange will be determined by supply/demand. They have no utility in-game beyond their membership value. They cannot be redeemed for real world cash (within game rules). Membership costs $8 per month on the site, and a bond provides 14 days of membership. If we count a month as 30 days on average, the value of a bond is (14 / 30 * $8) = $3.73. We see that bonds are already overpriced.

     

    So now, we see that a bond carries $3.73 in value in-game. If we consider current gold prices to be about $0.40/M, then we can assume a player will expect the GE price to be approximately 9.3M for a bond. The bond was originally purchased for $5, so this means the person who originally bought the bond has effectively paid ~$0.54/m or 34% extra just by purchasing a bond.

     

    Now, let's consider the assumption we made in this calculation:

     

    Membership $ and Real Life $ are equivalent

     

    REALITY: People certainly value real $ more than store credit on Runescape.com. This means that the GE price should actually be lower than 9.33M in the long run. Furthermore, the marginal value of a membership to one player falls as quantity increases. A player may want 2-3 Bonds for membership, but they likely don't need 10-20 Bonds for membership. With RL $, the first dollar is as useful as the last dollar.

     

    Now, back to the point that Jagex has not offered a way for players to cash out into RL $. This means there is still a massive hole in the economy. These players who wish to sell gold will have no choice but to undercut Jagex's prices on the Black Market. Jagex can cry all they want, but they even admitted this economy exists and is not going away. So they've made a major mistake by neglecting this portion of that market. By not allowing players to cash out Bonds / GP for RL $, they create a market outside the game.

     

    We will see gold prices drop quite quickly once these updates are implemented. The Black Market will find an equilibrium at a much lower rate for gold than the Bond market. The only players that will continue to buy gold with Bonds are the new customers who were afraid of transacting off-site. This update will only increase the amount of people RWT'ing, and will not stop any off-site activity. It's a complete money-grab in every sense of the term. It offers nothing to combat gold-farming, gold selling or RWT in general.

    Great read, I just had a question regarding Jagex's statement of knowing who is buying gold and actually being able to see it via the trades. IF Jagex can actually do this and IF jagex starts banning who they believe are RWT won't players just say F it i'll pay a little more for a bond and not get banned. Won't the extra income from these bonds circumvent any money lost ffrom bannings?

    Super September is Coming!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Ok so I don't think I will have time to get the 50 farm yard kills... Unless I can find an empty world? I doubt I can even fit ten mins in tomorrow.

     

     

    There are a lot of available spots just for the challenge, it took me only several hops to find an empty undead farm. Ardy farm is another good one I heard

    I found that rellekka worked quite well. There are 4-5 chickens and the first one respawned by the time I was finished with the last.

    RuneFest 2013 Ticket Announcement

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    £99 seems kinda excessive price for this kind of event imo. I mean many conventions that are much bigger and have a whole host of different studios/franchises etc there go for the same or less ticket price; some of them even for several days access.

     

    I'm sure it'll be good though.

    Yea I was talking to a good friend of mine and she asked me if I lived in London if i would actually go and I said only to people watch. I have no interest in the panels or dressing up, we concluded we could just go to Brighton and people watch and probably have more fun and for a lot cheaper lol

    Super September is Coming!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    FYI Sara brew caused this NOT to work for me

    lobster

    rocktail

    swordfish

    tuna

    bass

    monkfish

    shark

    fish pie

    wild pie

    summer pie

    garden pie

    anchovie

    shrimp

    watermelon

    papaya fruit

    tomato

    cake

    chocolate cake

    pizza

    anchovie pizza

    chili potato

    apple pie

    admiral pie

    cooked meat

    cooked chicken

     

    idk a couple more i cant remember

    11-Dec-2012 - Player-Owned Ports

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Couple quick questions, sorry if they've already been covered.

     

    Regarding the bar upgrades. Currently I have the refurbished bar which is 5% higher quality captain and 3% adventurer I noticed none of the Jade upgrades offer a higher % morale captain but one does offer another 5% higher quality captain. Is this on top of the 5% cherrywood so 10% in total?

     

    I already have a 10k chime captain for combat, speed and seafaring I need a 10k morale captain :(

    11-Dec-2012 - Player-Owned Ports

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    So I'm in the Scythe region here is my current crew and resources.

     

    Untitled2_zps0d76a2cc.jpg

    Untitled_zpsfaa676cc.jpg

    and im 25% to bowl

    Untitled3_zpsa33152e8.jpg

     

    I have all the cherrywood deck items and the rudder upgrade. Is it more important for me to finish upgrading my ship first or should I focus more on crew now? Also can anyone advise what are the building upgrades in order of importance? I do have a third ship already and Ive just upgraded my shipwright to boost my stats by 3%. I havent touched my bar yet except the basic upgrade and havent touched my crew house either. Any tips are appreciated

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