![](https://forum.tip.it/uploads/set_resources_2/84c1e40ea0e759e3f1505eb1788ddf3c_pattern.png)
Celery n Corn
-
Posts
36 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Gallery
Events
Blogs
Posts posted by Celery n Corn
-
-
The bond system as it is right now is destined to fail. It offers players the ability to buy gold (and membership / other Jagex pay-to-win stuff), but it offers no way for players to SELL gold. This means it will be impossible for bonds to find a long-term equilibrium price. They do not satisfy the solution which is provided by gold trading.
The reason websites are able to sell gold to players is because they also buy gold from players. 99% of the RS Gold websites out there do NOT make their own gold. There is a misconception that these websites are gold farms; they are NOT. Gold farming and gold selling are completely separate businesses. It would be like saying Wal-Mart manufactures all of their own products. These websites buy from players at a lower rate and sell at a higher rate.
Jagex states that 45-50% of the community currently partakes in RWT. Who knows how legitimate this number is, and how it was calculated, but the implied statement is that they wish to provide service to this 45-50% of the population. The fact is, the target customer-base for Jagex is the OTHER 50%, the ones who DO NOT currently buy gold. The portion of the community that already partakes on third party websites, etc. is very unlikely to switch over to buying / selling from Jagex unless the prices are competitive.
Currently, the price for 1 bond is $5 USD. Their value on the Grand Exchange will be determined by supply/demand. They have no utility in-game beyond their membership value. They cannot be redeemed for real world cash (within game rules). Membership costs $8 per month on the site, and a bond provides 14 days of membership. If we count a month as 30 days on average, the value of a bond is (14 / 30 * $8) = $3.73. We see that bonds are already overpriced.
So now, we see that a bond carries $3.73 in value in-game. If we consider current gold prices to be about $0.40/M, then we can assume a player will expect the GE price to be approximately 9.3M for a bond. The bond was originally purchased for $5, so this means the person who originally bought the bond has effectively paid ~$0.54/m or 34% extra just by purchasing a bond.
Now, let's consider the assumption we made in this calculation:
Membership $ and Real Life $ are equivalent
REALITY: People certainly value real $ more than store credit on Runescape.com. This means that the GE price should actually be lower than 9.33M in the long run. Furthermore, the marginal value of a membership to one player falls as quantity increases. A player may want 2-3 Bonds for membership, but they likely don't need 10-20 Bonds for membership. With RL $, the first dollar is as useful as the last dollar.
Now, back to the point that Jagex has not offered a way for players to cash out into RL $. This means there is still a massive hole in the economy. These players who wish to sell gold will have no choice but to undercut Jagex's prices on the Black Market. Jagex can cry all they want, but they even admitted this economy exists and is not going away. So they've made a major mistake by neglecting this portion of that market. By not allowing players to cash out Bonds / GP for RL $, they create a market outside the game.
We will see gold prices drop quite quickly once these updates are implemented. The Black Market will find an equilibrium at a much lower rate for gold than the Bond market. The only players that will continue to buy gold with Bonds are the new customers who were afraid of transacting off-site. This update will only increase the amount of people RWT'ing, and will not stop any off-site activity. It's a complete money-grab in every sense of the term. It offers nothing to combat gold-farming, gold selling or RWT in general.
Great read, I just had a question regarding Jagex's statement of knowing who is buying gold and actually being able to see it via the trades. IF Jagex can actually do this and IF jagex starts banning who they believe are RWT won't players just say F it i'll pay a little more for a bond and not get banned. Won't the extra income from these bonds circumvent any money lost ffrom bannings?
-
Sara altar in falador castle
Chaos altar in varrock
Guthix altar south of burthorpe lode stone
-
It's just getting old, just update it already Jagex :mad:
-
Ok so I don't think I will have time to get the 50 farm yard kills... Unless I can find an empty world? I doubt I can even fit ten mins in tomorrow.
There are a lot of available spots just for the challenge, it took me only several hops to find an empty undead farm. Ardy farm is another good one I heard
I found that rellekka worked quite well. There are 4-5 chickens and the first one respawned by the time I was finished with the last.
-
Yea not a huge fan of co-op but we just used the canifis guy and got wall beasts. Was done in about 5 minutes
-
£99 seems kinda excessive price for this kind of event imo. I mean many conventions that are much bigger and have a whole host of different studios/franchises etc there go for the same or less ticket price; some of them even for several days access.
I'm sure it'll be good though.
Yea I was talking to a good friend of mine and she asked me if I lived in London if i would actually go and I said only to people watch. I have no interest in the panels or dressing up, we concluded we could just go to Brighton and people watch and probably have more fun and for a lot cheaper lol
-
Don't think i'll make it, unless they want to fly me from Seattle
-
FYI Sara brew caused this NOT to work for me
lobster
rocktail
swordfish
tuna
bass
monkfish
shark
fish pie
wild pie
summer pie
garden pie
anchovie
shrimp
watermelon
papaya fruit
tomato
cake
chocolate cake
pizza
anchovie pizza
chili potato
apple pie
admiral pie
cooked meat
cooked chicken
idk a couple more i cant remember
-
Just got it in about 30 seconds on 122 while world 2 is a complete cluster f lol
-
Thanks guys
-
anyone know if you can join a game currently in progress? or do you have to start from the beginning
-
I just jumped the wall at GE ran to the gate on the north wall opened it and it said it was completed. Ran back to lvl 26 and tele'd to burthorpe, was surprised more 14 year olds weren't out there trying to show off how big their peeens are
-
Ugh I was expecting being able to use lamps and pendants on Div today :(
-
1
-
-
So this seems faster after the update...anyone else notice?
-
So from what I've gathered reading here and the forums basically I don't have to do old quests to enjoy great new game updates? Why is this a problem?
-
Couple quick questions, sorry if they've already been covered.
Regarding the bar upgrades. Currently I have the refurbished bar which is 5% higher quality captain and 3% adventurer I noticed none of the Jade upgrades offer a higher % morale captain but one does offer another 5% higher quality captain. Is this on top of the 5% cherrywood so 10% in total?
I already have a 10k chime captain for combat, speed and seafaring I need a 10k morale captain :(
-
So annoyed, I switched my focus to bowl and it gave me 8 straight gunpowder and bamboo missions wtf?!
-
ok here's my current crew
I have the morale hull upgrade for jade
Currently I have 2200 jade and 4k cherrywood. I'm thinking before any other upgrades I should get my fourth ship no?
-
I have not seen a chi globe in god knows how long. Is there any particular visitor that gives them more than others?
-
Does anyone know if there's anything we can do to determing whether we get chi globes or lacquer? I had one missoin for chi ages ago and none since only lacquer (sp)
Thanks
-
So I just "came back with the mission partially complete" to unlock the Judge of Dice. I go and use my last crew re-rolls and lo and behold I get a Judge of Dice?
Pretty sure this exact thing happened to me but with the Sea Witch
got a lol out of this
-
Am I carrying too many merchants or beuracrats? Also I have 2 seawith and 2 Feral Chim. Im 57% through Hook should I stick with this crew or look to add more of something else? I have three ships
Thanks
-
Is this why all the worlds are offline?
-
So I'm in the Scythe region here is my current crew and resources.
and im 25% to bowl
I have all the cherrywood deck items and the rudder upgrade. Is it more important for me to finish upgrading my ship first or should I focus more on crew now? Also can anyone advise what are the building upgrades in order of importance? I do have a third ship already and Ive just upgraded my shipwright to boost my stats by 3%. I havent touched my bar yet except the basic upgrade and havent touched my crew house either. Any tips are appreciated
20-Aug-2013 - Divination
in General Discussion
Posted
Glad I already got 99 so it doesnt matter :mad: