Will Runescape have its very own Wall Street crash?

 

 

 

Runescape has always had a very strong, consistent economy, and if prices change they will only do so due to new updates, and because of gradual inflation. We all know that if you want to buy some bowstring, you'll have to pay 160-220gp each. We also know that there are few items whose prices are always changing - the party hats, for example, and only a few of us ever dream to buy one of those. But what makes the economy so strong is that it hasn't experienced and radical changes over the last few years. Even the hype after the release of construction - when I managed to sell 600 steel bars for 1k each - died down after a few days. The main reason I play Runescape is because of how easy it is to merchant, and if you want something, there's a good chance you'll find something selling it within 5 minutes of searching.

 

 

 

But that's all about to change.

 

 

 

There are ominous rumblings on the horizon as the release of the Grand Exchange draws ever nearer, and already people are worried for their own trade. The question is becoming clearer every day: 'Will Runescape head into its very own Wall Street crash?'

 

 

 

Of course, it looks like an exciting prospect, and did to me when I first saw the news. A place where you can sell your goods to anyone on any world! That's about 200,000 people at any one time! With the added bonus of being able to find what you want within minutes, and without the hassle of travelling to a meeting place, there are many that are getting excited about this idea. Wondering why this update could spell disaster?

 

 

 

HereÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s how it works.

 

 

 

Much of the Runescape economy is based on the relationship between convenience and price. To clarify, youÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ll see loads of people on the forums saying: ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¹ÃâIf trades to be done at my world, Varrok, IÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ll sell 240gp each. If your world, IÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ll sell 250gp eachÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢, or something to that effect. As you can see, the more convenient it is for the buyer, the higher the price. Likewise, the more convenient for the seller, the lower the price.

 

 

 

The Grand Exchange will destroy this entirely. No longer will people be able to manipulate the prices and raise it higher by travelling to the buyerÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s location, or lower it by travelling to the sellerÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s location. This is one of merchantingÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s great foundations, because people will always pay more if they want it sooner, and many businesses are built around this idea.

 

 

 

Second, as people begin to put items on for sale at the exchange, it will become easy for buyers to compare prices ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Ãâ like with moneysupermarket.com. If a buyer sees 1k flax being sold for 100k, then another 1k flax being sold for 80k, theyÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ll buy the second lot. Because of the ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¹ÃâconvenienceÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ of being able to see about 100 prices at once, 99 of the sellers will lose out. Knowing this, theyÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ll lower prices. And so the Northern Rock shares crisis begins in Runescape. The value of commonly sold things ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Ãâ iron, coal, flax, yew logs ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Ãâ will all drop until people just canÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t afford to sell at these prices, and whoeverÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s buying may get a bargain that will seem a rip off in a week, because the prices will drop like a lead zeppelin. So if anyoneÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s still got a huge load of common items ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Ãâ beware, because your banking days may be numbered.

 

 

 

Finally, the Grand Exchange will see a huge boom in prices for rare items. Previously, many adverts for selling rare items have been hard to notice, and this has played into the hands of buyers who wonÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t pay much because they know that there is little competition. Once the grand exchange unveils these items for all to see, things will take a turn. Sellers can take advantage of the fact that there will be several people who want to buy their item, because it isnÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t easy to come by. So they will raise the prices. As demand increases, prices will rocket through the roof until nobody will want to pay that much, and then prices will dip until they do. But there is no doubt that the prices will never return to normal when they do increase. Only the people that were already in the rars market will survive, as long as they have some rare item to store while prices fluxuate.

 

 

 

With commonly sold items becoming worthless and rarer items becoming priceless, the entire economy will be turned upside-down. People with money will only be able to buy common items, which will sell dirt-cheap. Because the value of common items will fall, anyone in that market will be plunged into poverty, compared to the monye they had before. The rich that have rare items will suddenly become even richer, and far out of reach of anyone who wants to buy any of their items. In short, a gap will form in the money ladder, making it impossible to get to the top but so easy to fall to the bottom. This gap is the Grand Exchange.

 

 

 

Therefore it seems we may be in for a rollercoaster of an economic change, once the Grand Exchange causes an exchange between a stable economy, and our very own 1st and 3rd world countries. It may seem like a grand idea, but with the Runescape economy so finely balanced, we could lose all we have worked for. ThereÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s a reason why other games havenÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢t tried this out.

so many views... so little posts

 

 

 

...so many topics... so little remaining interest

Well, this will without a doubt kill "merching" as you view it now, but bare this in mind.

 

 

 

 

 

Player 1 sells 1k flax for 100k

 

Player 2 sees this puts his for 95k

 

Player 2 sells his first, yes.

 

 

 

But, bareing this in mind, eventually players are going to work up that ladder till they reach the 100k mark.

 

 

 

I've played alot of games both with RS's trade system and other trade systems similiar to what I expect RS's is going to turn into.

 

 

 

What this is doing to do, is stablize prices, some will cheer some will boo but neither will be impacted greatly in the long run, besides those who really really bust their chops to merch. This WILL haver encourage what I call "Lazy Merching" Those will put everything up alil higher, say 1k flax for 105k Waiting till people buy up all the 100k flax sets and just spring the exta 5k for his. And sit back and do this passively.

interesting point, but i don't think there are many 'lazy merchanters'

 

i know jagex's intention, to make it more convenient for players to buy items and sell them, with the added bonus of diluting spammers, but i just don't think the Runescape economy can currently handle it. it's almost as delicately balanced as the shares market.

I honestly look forward to it. I'm sick of the spamming required for selling, and the fact that 60% of RS players are standing around selling stuff all day long, be nice to see people actually playing the game.

 

 

 

I'm not argueing with you that there will be an interesting unbalancing at first, it'll be chaos till the market is saturated and prices are set based on supply/demand and not chaotic fillings of the order.

well there are of course good points to it too, it's just i'm a merchanter and the disruption it will cause isn't worth a few less spammers for me.

The fact that you don't have to be there to sell might do so people don't feel they have to sell their wares fast, so most people will probably sell flax for 100 each, while people who need money in a hurry for whatever reason will put it lower. Just a thought.

There's already a topic on this

 

 

 

Locked.