Bell Curvish Model for GE

[Slick_cat]

+cross-posted from my LJ comm about RS to TruthsScape, TipIt, Zybez, HeartUnit & Official forums+

 

 

 

Current Jagex Model

 

initial price set by Jagex's 'research'

 

range +/-5%

 

1 click is +/- 5% in one direction

 

that's it that's all

 

recalculation daily

 

 

 

Qeltar's Detailed Criticisms with what's wrong with it

 

http://www.truthscape.com/html/ts_TheTruth...toSavethePa.htm

 

 

 

My Initial Suggestion

 

initial price set by Jagex's GE pricing mechanism

 

range +/-7.5%

 

1 click is +/- 2.5% in one direction

 

you can set it to automatically float with the market rate; don't have to cancel offer (losing place in line) to reprice

 

recalculation daily

 

loot-share has option to tele directly to GE, non-cancelleable sale, funds split equally by everyone that was eligible for the shared drop, item liquidated for cash if not sold in 7 days & everyone gets their share at that point

 

 

 

Bell-Curvish Suggestion

 

initial price set by Jagex's GE pricing mechanism

 

range +/-7.5%

 

1 click is +/- 2.5% in one direction

 

you can set it to automatically float with the market rate; don't have to cancel offer (losing place in line) to reprice

 

loot-share has option to tele directly to GE, non-cancelleable sale, funds split equally by everyone that was eligible for the shared drop, item liquidated for cash if not sold in 7 days & everyone gets their share at that point

 

 

 

you can leave the price to 'stick' where it is as well

 

 

 

sales at any price in that range have weighting of 1 per titem

 

offers are any offer that stays up for 7 days or more

 

 

 

offers outside the price range but within +/- 10 % have a weighting of 0.5 per item

 

offers outside the previous range but within +/- 15% have a weighting of 0.25 per item

 

offers outside the previous range but withing +/-25% have a weighting of 0.1 item

 

offers outside the previous range but withing +/-100% have a weighting of 0.01 item

 

 

 

Pure Essence Example

 

88 coins

 

83-93 range

 

(data pulled from GE 2:45 am Dec 12 2007)

 

 

 

Percentage - Figure - Number Range - Range Weighting per item

 7.5%		  6.6	  81.4-94.6		   1.0

10.0%		  8.8	  79.2-96.8		   0.5

15.0%		 13.2	  74.8-101.2		  0.25

25.0%		 22.0	  66.0-110.0		  0.10

100.0%		 88.0	   0.0-176.0		  0.01





under bids

100k p ess   @   1.0 @ 0.01 =	1000

100k p ess   @  50   @ 0.01 =   50000

10k p ess   @  66   @ 0.10 =   66000

10k p ess   @  70   @ 0.10 =   70000

 8k p ess   @  75   @ 0.25 =  150000

 7.5k p ess @  78   @ 0.25 =  146250

 6k p ess   @  80   @ 0.5  =  240000

under bid votes				723250



sales

10k p ess   @  81   @ 1.0  =  810000

 5k p ess   @  82   @ 1.0  =  410000

 4k p ess   @  88   @ 1.0  =  352000

 5k p ess   @  93   @ 1.0  =  465000

sales (status quo) votes	= 2037000



over bids

 8k p ess   @  95   @ 0.5  =  380000

10k p ess   @ 100   @ 0.25 =  250000

20k p ess   @ 110   @ 0.10 =  222000

100k p ess   @ 176   @ 0.01 =  176000 

over bid votes			  = 1028000



total votes				 = 3788250 



under bid share			  = 0.1909

sale share					= 0.5377	

over bid share			  = 0.2713

====================================

total					   = 0.9999

 

 

 

Basically what Jagex's NEW GE number crunching algorithms would do is it would count the votes and see which way the trend was going.

 

 

 

Note that I purposefully didn't have many actual sales and also had large racketeer offers at either end trying to budge the prices.

 

 

 

Common items like p ess, runes and ores should also have a 30 day historical as part of the voting.

 

 

 

So each new day counts the votes from past 29 days as well - this would help stabilize price trends.

 

 

 

Luxury items like barrows, whips and godswords should have a 60 day historical as part of the voting.

 

 

 

So each new day counts votes from past 59 days as well.

 

 

 

Rare items like party hats, santas and halloween masks should have a 120 historical as part of the voting.

 

 

 

So each new day counts votes from past 119 days.

 

 

 

New items Jagex plugs in a ball park figure and 'copies' it backwards into the algorithm for 29, 59 or 119 days depending on its class. As time goes by, actual market behaviour (ie voting from sales and offers) replaces the data, day by day