On Merchanting with Free Trade - Predictions & Preparations

 

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As you all know, Jagex has made the decision to return unbalanced trade as well as old-style player killing to Runescape. To all of us here at Rune-Tips and anyone who who engages in Grand Exchange merchanting or investing, this update will have a profound impact on the way we play the game.

 

Some of the players reading this may remember the days before the Grand Exchange was implemented and Free Trade was removed - Merchanting was a completely different animal. Now, with the largest update Runescape has seen in years around the corner, we all want to know how to best prepare ourselves.

 

Will this update kill merchanting as we know it?

 

Quite simply, no. The Grand Exchange will be kept with adjusted price limitations, and older players will remember that the Grand Exchange and free trade co-existed for some time before the eventual removal of free trade.

 

What will happen to the economy once free trade is returned?

 

I will state it very strongly - once free trade is returned, there will be a period of 3-6 weeks during which it will be exceedingly risky to invest. A wide variety of factors will make the market extremly volatile, some items will crash and some will soar. New price baselines will be set for many items, and while there is extreme risk of losing a large amount during this update there is also the chance of a lifetime for the prudent and well-informed merchant to nearly double their wealth.

 

If you are new to investing or have a problem with taking risks, I HIGHLY recommend you liquidate all your assets - sell all your investments and high-value items immediately, and lay low until a month has passed. For the rest of you, I will provide the information you need to take advantage of this opportunity.

 

Effects of the update

 

Right now, the system of regulated trade has resulted in the price of many items "artificially" being raised or lowered based on the dynamics of the Grand Exchange. These items will quickly and immediately become either gold or trash once the update has taken place.

 

Manipulation clans

 

Four words - your time is over.

 

General dynamics of Grand Exchange merchanting

 

Despite the commotion, the truth is that the basics of Grand Exchange merchanting will go unchanged once free trade has returned. New dynamics will mostly effect the newer or higher-value items, while basic investing and flipping will go unchanged.

 

Even with free trade, the vast majority of transactions will be made on the Grand Exchange instead of in person. For more common items and supplies, they will be sold almost exclusively on the Grand Exchange.

 

More expensive, items however, will be sold mainly in the area around the Grand Exchange in worlds 1 and 2. This will provide a distinct profit opportunity for merchants who wish to learn the art of old-style merchanting, in which items are bought and flipped manually. Once they have settled in price, the rares market will be extremely lucrative for the more skilled of these merchants.

 

Immediate advice for the update

 

Immediate investment - PvP supplies

 

The second part of this update, the return of old-style Wilderness PKing, means of course that PvP supplies will be in high demand. Stock up on the following items:

 

• High-level food (Sharks, Lobsters, Swordfish)
  
• Basic weapons and armor (Rune scimitars & platebodies, dragon daggers, etc)
  
• Strength potions and other PKing supplies
  
• Runes and ammunition
  

 

High-level weapons will likely rise or fall depending on Jagex's decision regarding item-protection prayers and the details of the old-style Wilderness. It is likely, however, that most of these items (with the possible exception of insanely-priced weapons such as Godswords) will rise.

 

Effect on Rares

 

For the lucky among us who own any type of rare, prepare for a wild ride. The reason rares have become so overvalued in the last few years is because of the existence of the Grand Exchange's trade limits - the 5%-rise-per-update rule kept the Grand Exchange price of rares well behind the true street value, and as a result rares became exceedingly hard to buy and sell.

 

Once free trade is returned, the price of rares will stabilize, and violently. I predict that the eventual street price will fall somewhere between the current Grand Exchange value and the current street value for each item, but undoubtedly there will be a violent period in price fluctuations before this level-out occurs. To rare owners, I can only suggest that you remain calm and keep your bearings for the first few weeks - thankfully, rares are the only thing that will have a guaranteed value in the future.

 

So what should I do to prepare?

 

In preparation for this update, I will be putting approximately 75% of my money into a variety of mainly PvP-related items that I predict will earn 40% or more on my investment (I will release a full list of these items for RT members only in the merchanting Items section of this forum). In addition, I will be selling several of my rares and most of my high-level items with the intention of repurchasing after the update.

 

Feel free to post your action plans and additional information and speculations on the results of the upcoming changes. This update will provide the opportunity of a lifetime for those with the cleverness and knowledge to take advantage of it.

 

 

This is a very interesting post i read on a site I'm a member of.. basically it sums up all that will happen after the update.

What do you guys thin about this?

Manipulating clans will still be around...

If manipulating clans will be around you can still pay the right price without being forced to use a higher price.

 

However thanks for the great guide!

Manipulation clans will be mostly dead because a dumped item returns immediately to its true price (actually, a bit under it). The reason they were so successful is that when the leaders dumped early, the regular members could use junk trading to turn the inflated GE price into real profit.

Manipulation clans will be mostly dead because a dumped item returns immediately to its true price (actually, a bit under it). The reason they were so successful is that when the leaders dumped early, the regular members could use junk trading to turn the inflated GE price into real profit.

Actually, it seemed like in some clans the ranks were actually the ones who were dumped upon by the members. Those ranks were pro junk traders and that's how they got rid of it.

 

Anyway, don't you guys think that even with the new system,the GE might be a little slow to catch up? Let's imagine some merch clan drives up the price of law talismans. The GE price goes up because the average price its being sold at goes up. When the dump occurs, and people don't sell the stuff very cheap in the GE, it won't fall instantly back to its price. If all members of the manipulation clan keep their items and try to get rid of them manually, they should have plenty of time to get rid of. The hard thing will be to get high street items to get rid of it.

Mostly common sense to be honest.