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But if it doesn't happen...


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10 replies to this topic

#1
Omali
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I know how much Jagex loves their random number generator, but in the case of mini-games and mini-mini-games, it heavily favors some players over others. How many of you have put hours upon hours since lava flow mine released and haven't found a single nymph, while those around you have full sets? I have. Or killed endless amounts of creatures without a single champions challenge scroll? Missed a week with Shattered Heart because you couldn't get just one...[bleep]ing...rock to drop.

My idea has a guaranteed stop at which you are guaranteed to get a specific event, a little like the random event guarantee after a certain amount of time.

This does NOT apply to weapon/armor drops from bosses.

Examples of what this would apply to:

1. Bones for rag and bone man.
2. Lava flow mine nymphs.
3. Champions scroll drops.
4. Shattered heart stones.
5. Phoenix Lair egg drop.
6. God bird egg drop from trees.

Other mini-games that this would change are Circus tent, where once you obtain all of the rewards in a specific point range, you start receiving rewards from ranges below yours (you'll still run out of rewards eventually until you hit a higher point range).

It's important to note that this system won't be generous. At all. I'm talking, if there is a 1 in 5,000 chance of getting a champion challenge scroll, then the cap for a specific creature before you are guaranteed a scroll is five thousand kills. The cap for the liquid gold nymph would be something like five hours of pure mining (not walking around or idle) without getting a nymph, but if you get a nymph and miss it because you aren't paying attention the timer still resets the five hours. The shattered heart drops could be based on an xp cap in a skill at some high level that is still manageable in a week.

I specifically leave out tradeable drops because having that rare chance of drops is integral to Runescape's economy, but what this does is it changes the random aspect of specific mini-games so that the rewards still require a lot of work for those who the RNG does not favor, but a player will never fall into the pit of never obtaining a specific reward simply because the RNG never rolls in their favor.
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#2
Jaffy1
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Sounds fair. I agree on all of your points except for the god bird eggs one.
They aren't as rare if you do MTK, and a change in the nest drops could affect other nest rewards.. Tree seeds and whatnot.
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#3
Sy_Accursed
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yeah god eggs are insanely common.
You usually get atleast 3 a week from mtk

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#4
Guy
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If what you say about getting the new sets from the lava flow mine is true, then I think fixing the random number/chance generator is the way to go. The whole point of probability is not that if you do something 5000 times with a 1/5000 probability, you will be guaranteed to get it. The probabilities should of course be the same for everyone, but I think guaranteeing people something if they do x things with 1/x chance of getting the something is not the way to go. It is not how probabilities are supposed to work.

They should fix the so-called random chance generator though, it indeed does seem to favour some people above others.

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#5
Sy_Accursed
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If what you say about getting the new sets from the lava flow mine is true, then I think fixing the random number/chance generator is the way to go. The whole point of probability is not that if you do something 5000 times with a 1/5000 probability, you will be guaranteed to get it. The probabilities should of course be the same for everyone, but I think guaranteeing people something if they do x things with 1/x chance of getting the something is not the way to go. It is not how probabilities are supposed to work.

They should fix the so-called random chance generator though, it indeed does seem to favour some people above others.


The trouble with randomness is it inevitably that it randomly favours some over others; that is the nature of random selection.
Say nymph has a 1/5000 chance of showing up and everytime you get xp it generates a number from 1 - 10,000 with 4000 and 8000 being assigned as "wins"

It's not "broken" that someone happens to get nymph 6 times in 300k xp (aka 300 successful mines) while others only get it once in the same time.
Just sheer luck that you generated 4000 or 8000 that many times.

Same as rolling a 100% fair dice as a drinking game and drinking on say a 6.
Its inevitable someone is gonna get more 6s much faster than others.

Or drawing names randomly from a hat to form two teams. It is inevitable one team is gonna be favour and get more suitable ppl for the team.

For two or more parties to come out even close to equal from random selection is the statistically unlikely outcome.

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#6
Omali
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If what you say about getting the new sets from the lava flow mine is true, then I think fixing the random number/chance generator is the way to go. The whole point of probability is not that if you do something 5000 times with a 1/5000 probability, you will be guaranteed to get it. The probabilities should of course be the same for everyone, but I think guaranteeing people something if they do x things with 1/x chance of getting the something is not the way to go. It is not how probabilities are supposed to work.

They should fix the so-called random chance generator though, it indeed does seem to favour some people above others.


The 1 in 5,000 was an example of how the caps would be a high number. I know how probability is supposed to work, don't talk to me like I'm an idiot. Personally, I don't think a player should have to kill five thousand goblins to get a measly champions challenge scroll, but I'm willing to compromise in a manner that would keep these objects rare, but at the same time attainable by players. The caps would be a point where the game says "this isn't just the RNG being inherently unfair."

The problem with random number generators is that for someone, somewhere the number will never hit that 4,000 or 8,000 needed for the 2 in 10,000 random drop. The caps would be outside the estimated time/exp most players would need to obtain the events, and as such maintains the rarity of the events themselves.

In short, it's an update geared toward the outlying few percent. The grand majority would not even be affected by the update.
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#7
Sy_Accursed
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I like this idea (dont think i remembered the mention that)

But it should be sort of an extreme limiter.
Eg if odds of drop are 1 in 5000 it shuldnt guarantee the drop til u get to at least 10,000 if not more; just to ensure it is only catching the really extreme cases of useless luck.

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#8
D. V. Devnull
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Support, including Sy's tweak for it in the post above mine. :thumbsup:

Heck, I would like to link my Random Events to the RNG with a definite minimum of a 7-in-12000 (to 7-in-24000) chance, instead of a fixed exp/time amount. (Yes, Random Events are currently linked to an exp amount, making them not-so-random. Just go check the Dev Blogs and Interviews with Jagex if you don't believe me.) It would probably be a lot more fun (at least for me) once a Random Event did come along. Honestly, I think it could be more hilarious as well. ;)

That, and I've been missing Random Events since their frequency was lowered. :unsure:

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#9
Omali
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I like this idea (dont think i remembered the mention that)

But it should be sort of an extreme limiter.
Eg if odds of drop are 1 in 5000 it shuldnt guarantee the drop til u get to at least 10,000 if not more; just to ensure it is only catching the really extreme cases of useless luck.


Yea, the five thousand was just a number I pulled out as an example.

I'd also like to point out that I don't include myself in this group. I've received two pieces of gold armor since the lava flow mines came out.
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#10
Sir_Squab
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As someone else said, I fully support this except for the eggs because those things are very common from MTK. Have it apply to non-tradeable rewards. I'd personally like it to have it that if it's a 1/X drop, your guaranteed to get it after X tries no matter what, although 2X or 4X would be fair too imo.

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#11
patgangster
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I've thought about this a bit in the past too - I'd say giving a guaranteed drop like that wouldnt really fit runescape.
Maybe just the drop being more likely? (Say, original drop is 1 in 5000, if you don't get any for 5000 kills it will be 1/4000, if you don't get it for those 4000 it will be 3200...)
Of course, it'll reset when you get the drop.




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