Wessan Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 It seems there is a significant change in Charm rate when wearing a Mask of Granite. Typically, according to the 150k+ log on RS Wiki, the rate is as follows: 74% No Charm, 9-10% Gold, 5% Green, 5% Red, and 7% Blue. Wearing a Mask of Granite for a task of 198 Gargoyles yielded the following: 68.7% No Charm (136 kills) 12.6% Gold Charm (25 kills) 11.6% Blue Charm (23 kills) 4% Green Charm (8 kills) 3% Crimson Charm (6 kills) The most significant finding is the increase in Blue Charms. I am going to get another Gargoyle task and update with more findings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sy_Accursed Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Thats hardly a significant change or indicative of anything. It's just a small size size resulting in less accurate findings, the fact that from such a small sample your numbers are still all within ~3% of the main data is actually pretty on course statistically.With a sample size thats 1/1000th of the big data test you'd expect the results to be a lot further out than ~3% If anything all it says is you got lucky with a couple of extra blue charm drops than is statistically average. 1 Operation Gold Sparkles :: Chompy Kills :: Full Profound :: Champions :: Barbarian Notes :: Champions Tackle Box :: MA RewardsDragonkin Journals :: Ports Stories :: Elder Chronicles :: Boss Slayer :: Penance King :: Kal'gerion Titles :: Gold Statue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wessan Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 Well there is certainly no correlation linked to the Mask of Granite for a specific charm based on the following numbers: Task - 284 Gargoyles 70.4% No Charm (200 kills) 12% Gold Charm (34 kills) 4.6% Blue Charm (13 kills) 5.6% Green Charm (16 kills) 7.4% Crimson Charm (21 kills) There may not be a correlation between the mask and getting a certain type of charm, but the numbers in my first sample (be it a small one) were significantly outside 3% of a well established norm (11.6% Blue being 4.6% outside of 7%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sy_Accursed Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I said ~3% not 3% for a reason - that reason being I meant around 3% rather than exactly 3% a statement which is true as a rough average of the deviance from established percentage on your figures is in the 3% ballpark The math process: You were 5% out on no charm, 2% out on gold 4% on blue 1% on green 2% on crimson aka there was about 14% deviance overall. average between 5 categories is 2.8%. Therefore for the simplicity of my statement I rounded off to 3 and used the tilde symbol to indicate it was not an exact figure resulting in ~3% variance in your figures from the statistical norm and none of your variances were 'significantly' outside 3% anyway - they are all within +/-2 which is hardly a huge deviance from 3% for such a tiny sample at 198 kills for the entire sample 1% is basically 2 drops. In the established norm 1% equates to 1500 data points, your entire sample being barely over 0.1% worth of their data - if as a sample it was added to the big study you'd be lucky if it made the averages shift by 0.01 of a % Operation Gold Sparkles :: Chompy Kills :: Full Profound :: Champions :: Barbarian Notes :: Champions Tackle Box :: MA RewardsDragonkin Journals :: Ports Stories :: Elder Chronicles :: Boss Slayer :: Penance King :: Kal'gerion Titles :: Gold Statue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arceus Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 With a sample size of ~200 kills, you have a margin of error that is (from a very rough calculation) around 1/sqrt(198) ~= 1/14 = 6% if my math is correct, so anything within that range shouldn't be too unexpected. That is, blues between 1% and 13% would be regarded as statistically "normal" results. In fact if you average your two samples so far you get 7.46% blues, which is much closer (as you would expect, closer to the average with more samples). It's always fun to test stuff though, so I hope I'm not discouraging you - only trying to provide some insight into margin of error. :) "Fight for what you believe in, and believe in what you're fighting for." Can games be art? --- My blog here if you want to check out my Times articles and other writings! I always appreciate comments/feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
essiw Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 I think, but I am not to certain, to be able to say something about significant results your smallest group needs to have at least a value of 100. In this case, you need to get at least 100 of every charm. Though I am not sure if I say this correctly, as I am basing this on psychology research, in which you want your smallest group to be at least 100 respondents (for a good research). http://sign.tip.it/1/2/79/260/essiw.png Retired item crew I would like to be credited as essiw at the website update & corrections forum. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sy_Accursed Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 I think, but I am not to certain, to be able to say something about significant results your smallest group needs to have at least a value of 100. In this case, you need to get at least 100 of every charm. Though I am not sure if I say this correctly, as I am basing this on psychology research, in which you want your smallest group to be at least 100 respondents (for a good research). Personally for any meaning at all of even a sort of trend to be garnered I'd say 1% needs to equal 10 or more data points aka at least 1000 data points.For the meaning to hold real significance I'd say that'd go to 100+ minimum (aka 10,000+ data points) Operation Gold Sparkles :: Chompy Kills :: Full Profound :: Champions :: Barbarian Notes :: Champions Tackle Box :: MA RewardsDragonkin Journals :: Ports Stories :: Elder Chronicles :: Boss Slayer :: Penance King :: Kal'gerion Titles :: Gold Statue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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