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Dat RNG


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7 replies to this topic

#1
Legionwizard
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Legionwizard

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Last three scroll missions in a row, meant to complete Rocktail soup recipe, all failed despite 90%+ success rates.


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#2
Bxpprod
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Last three scroll missions in a row, meant to complete Rocktail soup recipe, all failed despite 90%+ success rates.

Non-100% missions failed what are the odds of that 


 

[bleep] OFF HOW ARE U SO [bleep]ING LUCKY U PIECE OF [bleep]ING SHIT [bleep] [bleep] [wagon] MUNCHER

 

 


#3
Legionwizard
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Last three scroll missions in a row, meant to complete Rocktail soup recipe, all failed despite 90%+ success rates.

Non-100% missions failed what are the odds of that 

 

Around 0.1*0.1*0.1 = 0.001 or 0.1% chance. In other words, not very likely. It's actually even less considering that the success rates were higher than 90% and I'm computing an upper bound.


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#4
Sy_Accursed
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Statistically possible event occurs - world is shocked and appalled.


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#5
Ammako
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Around 0.1*0.1*0.1 = 0.001 or 0.1% chance. In other words, not very likely.


I don't think it works that way.

#6
Sy_Accursed
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Around 0.1*0.1*0.1 = 0.001 or 0.1% chance. In other words, not very likely.


I don't think it works that way.

 

 

That is the way probability works.

 

If each event is independent (ie the outcome of one does not alter the outcome of the other) then you multiply their probabilities to calculate the probability of both outcomes occurring.

 

To give a practical example:

The odds a flipped coin being heads is 50%, tails is 50%

 

If you flip 2 coins there are 4 possible outcomes:

HH

HT

TH

TT

 

The odds of each outcome is equal, just like flipping one coin so the odds of each is 25%

 

50% in decimal is 0.5

0.5*0.5 = 0.25 = 25%

 

In this instance assuming each ship had 90% success rate the fail rate is 10% aka 0.1

So for 3 ships acting independently of each other, with same odds, its 0.1*0.1*0.1=0.001 = 0.1%


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#7
Bxpprod
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Last three scroll missions in a row, meant to complete Rocktail soup recipe, all failed despite 90%+ success rates.

Non-100% missions failed what are the odds of that 

 

Around 0.1*0.1*0.1 = 0.001 or 0.1% chance. In other words, not very likely. It's actually even less considering that the success rates were higher than 90% and I'm computing an upper bound.

 

P>0

 

W0w it occurs w0w


 

[bleep] OFF HOW ARE U SO [bleep]ING LUCKY U PIECE OF [bleep]ING SHIT [bleep] [bleep] [wagon] MUNCHER

 

 


#8
Minergoo
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Dude, I feel you. RNG is  :(

I have been killing cave horrors for a black mask drop and it is not working out.


try to achieve your dreams because one day you might forget how to dream!





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