August 21, 201510 yr Last three scroll missions in a row, meant to complete Rocktail soup recipe, all failed despite 90%+ success rates. Achieved quest (07/08/2009), woodcutting (28/06/2010), attack (21/07/2010), strength + constitution (07/08/2010), defence (26/09/2010), summoning (13/01/2011), herblore (03/03/2011), cook (31/08/2012), firemaking (01/09/2012), magic (08/09/2012), prayer (16/09/2012) and ranged (29/10/2012) capes.
August 22, 201510 yr Last three scroll missions in a row, meant to complete Rocktail soup recipe, all failed despite 90%+ success rates.Non-100% missions failed what are the odds of that [bleep] OFF HOW ARE U SO [bleep]ING LUCKY U PIECE OF [bleep]ING SHIT [bleep] [bleep] [wagon] MUNCHER
August 22, 201510 yr Author Last three scroll missions in a row, meant to complete Rocktail soup recipe, all failed despite 90%+ success rates.Non-100% missions failed what are the odds of that Around 0.1*0.1*0.1 = 0.001 or 0.1% chance. In other words, not very likely. It's actually even less considering that the success rates were higher than 90% and I'm computing an upper bound. Achieved quest (07/08/2009), woodcutting (28/06/2010), attack (21/07/2010), strength + constitution (07/08/2010), defence (26/09/2010), summoning (13/01/2011), herblore (03/03/2011), cook (31/08/2012), firemaking (01/09/2012), magic (08/09/2012), prayer (16/09/2012) and ranged (29/10/2012) capes.
August 22, 201510 yr Statistically possible event occurs - world is shocked and appalled. Operation Gold Sparkles :: Chompy Kills :: Full Profound :: Champions :: Barbarian Notes :: Champions Tackle Box :: MA RewardsDragonkin Journals :: Ports Stories :: Elder Chronicles :: Boss Slayer :: Penance King :: Kal'gerion Titles :: Gold Statue
August 22, 201510 yr Around 0.1*0.1*0.1 = 0.001 or 0.1% chance. In other words, not very likely. I don't think it works that way.
August 22, 201510 yr Around 0.1*0.1*0.1 = 0.001 or 0.1% chance. In other words, not very likely.I don't think it works that way. That is the way probability works. If each event is independent (ie the outcome of one does not alter the outcome of the other) then you multiply their probabilities to calculate the probability of both outcomes occurring. To give a practical example:The odds a flipped coin being heads is 50%, tails is 50% If you flip 2 coins there are 4 possible outcomes:HHHTTHTT The odds of each outcome is equal, just like flipping one coin so the odds of each is 25% 50% in decimal is 0.50.5*0.5 = 0.25 = 25% In this instance assuming each ship had 90% success rate the fail rate is 10% aka 0.1So for 3 ships acting independently of each other, with same odds, its 0.1*0.1*0.1=0.001 = 0.1% Operation Gold Sparkles :: Chompy Kills :: Full Profound :: Champions :: Barbarian Notes :: Champions Tackle Box :: MA RewardsDragonkin Journals :: Ports Stories :: Elder Chronicles :: Boss Slayer :: Penance King :: Kal'gerion Titles :: Gold Statue
August 24, 201510 yr Last three scroll missions in a row, meant to complete Rocktail soup recipe, all failed despite 90%+ success rates.Non-100% missions failed what are the odds of that Around 0.1*0.1*0.1 = 0.001 or 0.1% chance. In other words, not very likely. It's actually even less considering that the success rates were higher than 90% and I'm computing an upper bound. P>0 W0w it occurs w0w [bleep] OFF HOW ARE U SO [bleep]ING LUCKY U PIECE OF [bleep]ING SHIT [bleep] [bleep] [wagon] MUNCHER
September 21, 201510 yr Dude, I feel you. RNG is :(I have been killing cave horrors for a black mask drop and it is not working out. try to achieve your dreams because one day you might forget how to dream!
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