The Rare Market...

[Buddy69]

Ok, I'm just gonig to get right to the point...

 

Anybody know why Rare Prices are going up so fast?

[BloodAngel]

It is most likely because people with them are dying or accidently alching them. Lvl 3s have started to buy them and they often die against low level enemies. So now there is a decline in the amount of rares, which as more people want them, their prices will go up, and with them increasing people can now start merchanting them aswell.

 

 

 

-Bloodangel

[ishepp]

To me the rares market is as unexplainable as it is unpredictable.

 

 

 

The reasons for sudden huge jumps is normally a major event which decreases the number of rares in the game. Take the huge macro ban earlier this year which saw a big price jump.

 

There is also the fluctuation of supply and demand. For the last month, prices have been quite stable, going down slightly even. There were lots of sellers, and not enough buyers. Then something has happened, (possibly the ban of a certain merchant, but not necessarily), and prices went up a little. Suddenly the cries go out that rares are on the up, and everyone wants a bit of it. Now the buyers outnumber the sellers, and prices will therefore be able to rise. I can only guess that is what is happening now, though I am not an economist, and runescape economics are not the same as the real world. At some point in the near future, prices will level out again.

 

 

 

All I know is that in the long term, prices can only increase. And my santa hat just grew in value by almost 3mil :D

[Severation]

It is most likely because people with them are dying or accidently alching them. Lvl 3s have started to buy them and they often die against low level enemies. So now there is a decline in the amount of rares, which as more people want them, their prices will go up, and with them increasing people can now start merchanting them aswell.

 

 

 

-Bloodangel

 

 

 

If they die though, someone else will probably pick it up.

[Laps9]

It is most likely because people with them are dying or accidently alching them. Lvl 3s have started to buy them and they often die against low level enemies. So now there is a decline in the amount of rares, which as more people want them, their prices will go up, and with them increasing people can now start merchanting them aswell.

 

 

 

-Bloodangel

 

 

 

If they die though, someone else will probably pick it up.

 

 

 

And then they try to sell for 100 mil more than it's worth, people don't buy, they try selling for 10 mil more than it's worth, some unlucky punter buys and sells for twice as much and the cycle goes on.

[primadog]

To me the rares market is as unexplainable as it is unpredictable.

 

 

 

 

 

How is it unpredictable?

 

 

 

The price of rares are generally upwards, and overall at a predictable growth rate -- see Duke_freedom's old Tipit Times article and R2pleasant's predictions to see how well they match up.

 

 

 

The essence is: in long term, rares will rise in price. You can buy one, leave it for a half a year, and expect its value to double -- that's long term investment. If your rare does not rise after half a year, I'll pay you the difference.

 

 

 

In the short term, however, rare prices fluctuate. It may rise rapidly in a few days, caused by (1) ban & quit (2) organized price manipulation (3) JaGex (4) increase amount of GP in circulation, or it may drop at a slow rate because (1) returned me chanters (2) me chanterÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s need to drop the goods (3) rapid rise from earlier (2) lack of gp in circulation .

 

 

 

Here's a summary of what happened in the past month. For about 2-3 months, rares have been in a steady, slow decline(1) after the big January hike. All the merchants were worried about the prices will continue decline, leading to a decrease in capital (lost in profit) and continue to sell their goods at lower-and-lower price, which in turn lead to further decline.

 

 

 

OnMay 07th, 2006, Duke_freedom announced his ban (1), and along with him the RS economy lost "200 Santa hats, 200 pumpkins, 20 mask sets, 1 phat set, 3 half wines, 450mil pure gp." This fueled a sudden rise in the value of rares, thus the prices of rares jumped. Furthermore, merchants see that there's profit in rares again, so they all rush to buy rares, doubly increase the price of rares.

 

 

 

What will happen:

 

price of rares will not rise forever. After a week or so, they prices will stabilize again, follow by leveling off, then a slow and steady decline. If you're interested in investing in rares, DO NOT buy now. Wait for a month or two after the prices have to been sluggish and appears to be waiting for another event to pump the prices back up.

 

 

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: Primadog is a old, insane Scaper who has no clue what heÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s talking about. Do not trust a word he says. He does not have a financial interest in the rares market, ie heÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s too poor/ indifferent to own a rare.

[Miner_I]

What will happen:

 

price of rares will not rise forever. After a week or so, they prices will stabilize again, follow by leveling off, then a slow and steady decline. If you're interested in investing in rares, DO NOT buy now. Wait for a month or two after the prices have to been sluggish and appears to be waiting for another event to pump the prices back up.

 

 

 

This about sums it up. Prices always go up often passing their previous rise. However they often take a short time of falling backward. As primedog suggests, wait for a time when prices are "down" if you can afford to do so.