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obfuscator last won the day on June 11 2020

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About obfuscator

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  1. obfuscator


    not any mods to show up lol
  2. obfuscator


    randox is canadian yeah
  3. obfuscator


    were americans ever the majority on tif?
  4. obfuscator


    It's changed a lot lol...US births per woman in 1800 was 7.04 - now it's 1.8. https://eh.net/encyclopedia/fertility-and-mortality-in-the-united-states/ The majority of countries in the world have had significant drops in birthrate over the past 150 years - worldwide the drop has been enormous: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN Even countries with high TFR have declined substantially: India for example went from 5.31 in 1960 to 2.33 in 2016. In fact, the only country on that list that has a higher TFR in 2016 than 1960 is DR Congo - went from 6.001 to 6.112 For this reason, most analysis I've seen predicts worldwide population peaking at around 10 billion somewhere around 2070 and then declining substantially. The main reason population has even kept growing up to this point is increased life expectancy
  5. obfuscator


    Of course...we should always try to do better. Just important to realize that it is possible that attempts to make things better may actually make things worse, and to proceed with caution
  6. obfuscator


    the thing that scares me more is that most people think they're in the top half edit: to both of your points...now, we have thousands of idiots who don't vaccinate, causing a dozen deaths a year. 150 years ago, we just had thousands of deaths a year instead.
  7. obfuscator


    The posts I responded to didn't say anything about income inquality, they were saying salaries were higher when households had a single income. In response, I show that salaries declined in large part because most modern households have dual income, which is highly correlated with increased female participation in the labour force. No, I don't think it's weird, I think it's answering the question that was asked.
  8. obfuscator


    Yes, but competition for those jobs still increases with the size of the labour pool because competition in other fields (where women work more) increases too - there are more men trying to get jobs in male dominated fields because it's harder for them to get jobs in fields that were previously male dominated and aren't anymore. This is one of the "negative" effects of increase female labour force participation, but there have been a ton of positives too - consumer goods are generally much less expensive today than they were fifty years ago. The increased pace of technology and innovation is also due to more women working to a significant extent. My point is just that when it comes to economics, most phenomenon are not *all good* or *all bad* - in most cases, there are pros and cons..these things are all about tradeoffs. What you consider an appropriate tradeoff depends on your personal biases, like most things.
  9. obfuscator


    Why is it weird? It's completely consistent with economic theory that when you increase the supply of something relative to demand it has a depressive effect on prices (salaries when it comes to employement). Here's some info on female labor force participation rate if you doubt that it's increased significantly since the 50s.
  10. obfuscator


    @both of you: I agree, but the single biggest reason for this is likely increased female participation in the labor force. Increased supply of workers = more competition for jobs, salary declining. Unless we want to return to 1950s, where most women didn't work, this is the reality we have now.
  11. obfuscator


    How many people are actually neo-nazis because of alex jones (and other online personalities), though? I think it's probably a miniscule amount. Furthermore, how many neo-nazis actually engage in violent or illegal activity? Again - if you accept that the government has the right to decide what opinions are acceptable and which aren't, that immediately affects *everybody* - and suppression of free speech rarely tends to work out in its proponents favour. My view is basically that isolated violence perpetrated by a few select idiots is much preferable to mass violence perpetrated by the state, which is what you get when you take away free speech rights.
  12. obfuscator


    Agreed (about responsibility, anyway), but you do you do that practically? unless someone nakedly condones violence, you immediately fall into the trap of government essentially having to decide what opinions are acceptable and which aren't, which causes massive problems much worse than anything alex jones does and tbh dealing in misinformation and highly biased viewpoints is just as prevalent in a lot of "mainstream", "respectable" media as it is someone like AJ. I almost think he's better because at least the average person is probably pretty aware he's full of shit
  13. obfuscator


    missed this...what's the alternative, though? There will always be people (lots of them) who do stupid stuff and look to someone influential to provide something that can vaguely justify it. It's not prudent to hold people responsible for the actions of others unless the actions are extremely serious, and it's practically certain that the person of influence is knowingly acting maliciously.
  14. obfuscator


    Actually, a lot of these questions are just hard to answer. Statistics can give you the basic facts, but extrapolating complex trends from that is hard enough that there's an entire profession devoted to doing so. There are a lot of really good economics papers that cover these questions, but there isn't always a consensus, and they aren't necessarily written with the average person in mind. if I had to guess I'd say nepotism is probably *less* prevalent now than ever, if for no other reason than that companies have much larger pools to recruit from and many more means of doing so than they did 30 years ago.
  15. obfuscator


    the problem with anecdotal evidence such as this is that there's no way it can capture a society wide phenomenon. I've heard (and experienced) pretty much the opposite, at least in technical fields. it is true that labor force participation rate has declined over the past 20 years (though it is still much higher than it was in the 50s and 60s), though it does tend to have a moderate inverse relationship to unemployment rate (there's been a recent uptick as unemployment has gone down). There are definitely demographic issues that most western countries have relating to aging populations and increased female participation in the workforce. The implications of all this definitely go beyond the scope of my knowledge though Unemployment in 2016 was at 4.7%, so it's definitely decreased since then...the economy has generally done well over the past 2 years. There was a minor recession in 2015-2016, so some of it is a rebound from that. Still, 4.7% unemployment isn't at all bad. I think a lot of the angst about the job market in 2016 was due to the political angle like you suggest, but also because emotional and anecdotal evidence tends to resonate with people more than statistics do. If a minor recession occurs and 100k people lose their jobs, the natural emotional reaction to that is to freak out, but as previously mentioned it's not nearly as big of a problem as some might think. Anyway - the big takeaway from all this is not that everything is 100% great and definitely going to remain so - more that people like to panic and it isn't always warranted. Though there are some negative indications, there are a lot of positive ones too.
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