I've been reading about using Martingale System for boxing and have come to a conclusion that it's a good system if

 

- You have about a starting pile of 150m+

- Willing to stake 5m and double up to 10m, 20m, 40m and then 80m as all out

- Only going to stay there for an hour or two and plan on making a quick 100m-200m or so and not going back

 

Now the chances of you losing 5 in a row is 1/32 or 6 in a row is 1/64 so I believe Martingale System is a very fast short term money maker but if you stay for long you're going to get cleaned.

 

Would that be a good hypothesis?

Start with a 1m stake, losing 5 times in a row isn't that unlikely....

Start with a 1m stake, losing 5 times in a row isn't that unlikely....

 

That's the problem with starting with just 1m stake, by the time you make more than your current cash pile(150m) doing 1m stakes you're going to lose 7 in a row(1/128 chance) and get cleaned. Say you made 100m with winning 1m each time when you lose 7 in a row you've lost 150m and you're down 50m from when you started.

expected returns are always 0 if you're betting 1:1 odds.

 

All the martingale system does is offset risk and reward.

you have a small chance of losing everything.

and a big chance of winning a small portion of your finite cash stack.

over the course of the martingale betting system.

 

but when you factor both in, expected returns comes out to 0.

use the martingale system enough and you will get cleaned eventually.

 

If you wanna gamble sure, have fun with this system.

It can create the illusion of winning more money than you're losing.

 

but expected profits are still 0. It's a waste of time.

expected returns are always 0 if you're betting 1:1 odds.

 

All the martingale system does is offset risk and reward.

you have a small chance of losing everything.

and a big chance of winning a small portion of your finite cash stack.

over the course of the martingale betting system.

 

but when you factor both in, expected returns comes out to 0.

use the martingale system enough and you will get cleaned eventually.

 

If you wanna gamble sure, have fun with this system.

It can create the illusion of winning more money than you're losing.

 

but expected profits are still 0. It's a waste of time.

Aren't expected profits of staking always zero if you assume a 50% chance to win?

Start with a 1m stake, losing 5 times in a row isn't that unlikely....

 

That's the problem with starting with just 1m stake, by the time you make more than your current cash pile(150m) doing 1m stakes you're going to lose 7 in a row(1/128 chance) and get cleaned. Say you made 100m with winning 1m each time when you lose 7 in a row you've lost 150m and you're down 50m from when you started.

 

That's why staking isnt a reliable moneymaker... Huge risk and huge rewards vs. lower risk and lower rewards, it's up to you;)

Martingale system only works if you have infinite money. And you don't, 150m isn't nearly enough.

Martingale system only works if you have infinite money. And you don't, 150m isn't nearly enough.

 

Even with infinite money its not 100% sure you'll profit. The chance of profiting would be 1-(1/2^x) which is never going to be 1...

Stakings fun and martingales is a reasonable system to use when doing it, however I would strongly recommend against using money you aren't willing to use. Betting 5m with 150m cash pile = you should still be prepared to lose 150m. So basically only stake if you either thinking 'Oh what the heck I may as well' or you have a large amount of spare cash and reasonable good way to make it back. I know a friend on RS who made enough for turmoil, then before buying the bones thought he'd have a go staking see if he could turn his money into turmoil + extremes, basically he got cleaned and now all he does is moan.

Aren't expected profits of staking always zero if you assume a 50% chance to win?

not if you have a 50-50 chance to win but your opponent is staking 2x as much money as you, or something along those lines.