Miss Slay xx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just finished my 14th task of abyssal demons and i still haven't gotten a whip. Yes, this is the 14th task with no whip drop. This is really, i mean really weird.. shouldn't i have gotten atleast 1 by now? Am I glitched? Has anyone experienced the same? Most tasks were done with ROW on, the rest with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgehog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lose No Hope Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilityqft I went 17 tasks starting at 85 slayer before I got one. It's not a glitch, it's probability. [hide]unbinding green's kidneys for ltk's heartdo you farm guam like me sir ltk[/hide] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quyneax Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 1/512 for whips.14*200 abyssals killed.511/512^2800If you killed another 2800 abyssals, there's .4% chance you won't get a whip, approximately. Supporter of Zaros | Quest Cape owner since 22 may 2010 | No skills below 99 | Total level 2595 | Completionist Cape owner since 17th June 2013 | Suggestions 99 summoning (18th June 2011, previously untrimmed) | 99 farming (14th July 2011) | 99 prayer (8th September 2011) | 99 constitution (10th September 2011) | 99 dungeoneering (15th November 2011) 99 ranged (28th November 2011) | 99 attack, 99 defence, 99 strength (11th December 2011) | 99 slayer (18th December 2011) | 99 magic (22nd December 2011) | 99 construction (16th March 2012) 99 herblore (22nd March 2012) | 99 firemaking (26th March 2012) | 99 cooking (2nd July 2012) | 99 runecrafting (12th March 2012) | 99 crafting (26th August 2012) | 99 agility (19th November 2012) 99 woodcutting (22nd November 2012) | 99 fletching (31st December 2012) | 99 thieving (3rd January 2013) | 99 hunter (11th January 2013) | 99 mining (21st January 2013) | 99 fishing (21st January 2013) 99 smithing (21st January 2013) | 120 dungeoneering (17th June 2013) | 99 divination (24th November 2013) Tormented demon drops: twenty effigies, nine pairs of claws, two dragon armour slices and one elite clue | Dagannoth king drops: two dragon hatchets, two elite clues, one archer ring and one warrior ring Glacor drops: four pairs of ragefire boots, one pair of steadfast boots, six effigies, two hundred lots of Armadyl shards, three elite clues | Nex split: Torva boots | Kalphite King split: off-hand drygore mace 30/30 Shattered Heart statues completed | 16/16 Court Cases completed | 25/25 Choc Chimp Ices delivered | 500/500 Vyrewatch burned | 584/584 tasks completed | 4000/4000 chompies hunted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaaps1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So I did a little math... Assuming a 1/500 drop rate for whips (which I think is rather reasonable) and an average of 200 demons per task, you have a 67% chance of getting NO whip drops PER TASK. That means you have a ~.4% chance of getting NO whips in 14 tasks. Which is, obviously, very small, but also not impossible. The following isn't mathematically correct, but hey, it's gotta happen to someone, right? Unfortunately, we're all "someone else" to someone else. EDIT: WTF ninja'd DAMNIT ENAID@@@ ~It's Super Effective! (The Zaaps Blog)~My YouTube Channel, where you get to watch me go around and make a fool out of myself and all comp capersGuides:~Yeah I wrote them once~Suggestions:~Yeah I made those once~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgehog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You were ninja'd by 5 minutes lol Good job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lose No Hope Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You were ninja'd by 5 minutes lol Good jobzaaps types at -3wpm so it makes sense trololol [hide]unbinding green's kidneys for ltk's heartdo you farm guam like me sir ltk[/hide] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerfrog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just for a reference point, you are almost 9 times less likely of getting back to back whip drops than a 14 task dry streak, yet that happens to 'someone else' every single damn day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaaps1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 stfu i was looking up how to do binomial distrubtions again cuz i didnt realize k=0 in this case get off my back pls <3 ~It's Super Effective! (The Zaaps Blog)~My YouTube Channel, where you get to watch me go around and make a fool out of myself and all comp capersGuides:~Yeah I wrote them once~Suggestions:~Yeah I made those once~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgehog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You were ninja'd by 5 minutes lol Good jobzaaps types at -3wpm so it makes sense trolololPlease do not troll on these fine forums, Last_to_Kn0w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quyneax Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just for a reference point, you are almost 9 times less likely of getting back to back whip drops than a 14 task dry streak, yet that happens to 'someone else' every single damn day.Chances of getting whips your next two kills is 1/512 squared, or about 0,0004%.Chances of getting b2b whips in your next 500 kills is 1 - (511/512)^499 (getting a first whip not on the last kill) multiplied by 1/512 (chance of getting a whip the kill after) or about 0,12%.Chances of getting a whip after your next whip are 1/512. So 1/512th of all whips is followed by another whip. If we assume there's always at least 100 people in Kuradal's dungeon (spread across worlds) each killing at least 100 demons per hour, there's always at least 240.000 demons dying every day. If we assume around 500 whip drops per day, you'd expect around one b2b whip each day. And I think 10.000/hr is pretty low, considering some worlds have 3-4 people and maxed players kill 200/hr. And then there's the slayer tower... Supporter of Zaros | Quest Cape owner since 22 may 2010 | No skills below 99 | Total level 2595 | Completionist Cape owner since 17th June 2013 | Suggestions 99 summoning (18th June 2011, previously untrimmed) | 99 farming (14th July 2011) | 99 prayer (8th September 2011) | 99 constitution (10th September 2011) | 99 dungeoneering (15th November 2011) 99 ranged (28th November 2011) | 99 attack, 99 defence, 99 strength (11th December 2011) | 99 slayer (18th December 2011) | 99 magic (22nd December 2011) | 99 construction (16th March 2012) 99 herblore (22nd March 2012) | 99 firemaking (26th March 2012) | 99 cooking (2nd July 2012) | 99 runecrafting (12th March 2012) | 99 crafting (26th August 2012) | 99 agility (19th November 2012) 99 woodcutting (22nd November 2012) | 99 fletching (31st December 2012) | 99 thieving (3rd January 2013) | 99 hunter (11th January 2013) | 99 mining (21st January 2013) | 99 fishing (21st January 2013) 99 smithing (21st January 2013) | 120 dungeoneering (17th June 2013) | 99 divination (24th November 2013) Tormented demon drops: twenty effigies, nine pairs of claws, two dragon armour slices and one elite clue | Dagannoth king drops: two dragon hatchets, two elite clues, one archer ring and one warrior ring Glacor drops: four pairs of ragefire boots, one pair of steadfast boots, six effigies, two hundred lots of Armadyl shards, three elite clues | Nex split: Torva boots | Kalphite King split: off-hand drygore mace 30/30 Shattered Heart statues completed | 16/16 Court Cases completed | 25/25 Choc Chimp Ices delivered | 500/500 Vyrewatch burned | 584/584 tasks completed | 4000/4000 chompies hunted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Slay xx Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Thanks for the calculations everyone. :) I now understand. EDIT: Yay ^_^ 16th task whip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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