rare items - my solution and ideas

[microtosh]

no, the will nvr do tt. ppl gonna quit rs when they see theres no pt merchantin when prices r fixed man. but who knows, we arent jagex so we dun noe wad those guys r tinking.

[Duke_Freedom]

That being said, I think Jagex should hire an economist. They're making enough money to afford it, and the game is desperately in need of it. I know they won't, but this whole idea is a bit of a theoretical exercise anyway, so I figured I'd throw that out there.

 

 

 

In fact, there have been mmorpg's who did hire economists to help with setting up a stable and healthy game economy.

 

 

 

When all the clever merchants such as yourself see this update, and realize what is going on, what's the smart move for them to make? Convert all (or most) of their rares to gp. Now, what happens when all the big name merchants rush to sell off their rare collection, and the bulk of the rs population sees it happening? Rare prices drop faster than you can blink. Prices may bounce around a bit, but you're going to see them dropping overall by a very significant amount.

 

 

 

O yes, the rares will definately 'crash' on the short term. In the meanwhile materials will probably shoot up quite a lot, depending on how much exp you get from the finished goods.

 

 

 

In addition to all the current players in the rare market selling off, you'll also get those investors who have been sitting on them for years jumping in and selling them off as well. I've seen your estimates on how many rares there are in the game, and I'm pretty sure you've greatly underestimated the number of players that have been holding them since the drop, just selling a few here and there to pay the bills.

 

 

 

My estimates include all rares owned by people who might sell their rare sometime in the future. Anyway, let's not discuss those numbers here.. Even with my estimates the total value of the rares market is ~650bil while I estimate the total amount of gp in the game at ~800-900bil, so if panic hits so heavily that even the "I'm-very-unlikely-to-sell-my-rares" people sell their rares then the prices can definately drop a lot.

 

 

 

As the short term scenario has shown, the relative values of rares will be dropping significantly, as gp will become the new hot commodity. Gp will take on a greater value, and will be able to purchase more rares and more experience relative to current gp values.

 

 

 

The later will probably don't change that much. I think the gp / xp rates won't change that much but, instead, the prices of materials will adjust. Ofcourse it will be slightly cheaper because materials now "yield more exp" though.

 

 

 

Rares are still dropping, so people will, for the most part, steer clear of those and turn to raw materials, as they have become a much better value relative to the other values.

 

 

 

It's pretty funny actually.. I probably made most of my money during a dropping rares market. Admitted, most people aren't very good at merchanting in a dropping rares market though. If this idea is implemented, we might see another rs2 (grand) depression like the one that occured at the start of rs2 and that took 3-4 months to hit rock-bottom in which the prices of rares halved.

 

 

 

Eventually prices will hit a rock-bottom though, and just like during the rs2 grand depression they will probably be oversold (meaning that they are (heavily) undervaluated). After prices dropped 3-4 months at the start of rs2, I knew rock-bottom was hit and started buying up blue phats - oftenly from other merchants who thought I went crazy (I was buying for inflated prices.. bought in a range of 4.5mil - 5mil within one day). A

 

couple of days later they were selling for ~6.3mil, such a rise of 40% in just a matter of days was extreme back then, especially considering that the prices had just dropped for 3-4 months long.

 

What I want to say is that once rock-bottom has been reached, prices will probably jump up a lot again as well.

 

 

 

The point is that once rock-bottom has been reached, people regain trust in rares as well. This will cause a rebirth of rares ever ongoing price increase again.

 

 

 

Most importantly in this period, the raw materials will be in greatest demand; merchants will begin to use their vast gp resources to cash in on the growth in this area and the gp currently in circulation will begin to spread to the raw material gatherers, distributing the current reserves a little more evenly.

 

 

 

Better distribution of money means larger demand for rares in the end, preventing rares from crashing too much. As people will be able to gain more gp for their materials, rares will be easier to get as well.

 

 

 

Finally, once all the values have become relatively stable and the rares stop being dumped into the economy, they will resume their steady upward climb. However this time, itÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s a much slower climb that starts from a point considerably lower than it is today. The climb will be so much slower because the amount of cash available to purchase the rares will remain virtually the same.

 

 

 

Hm depends a lot on how you are going to make it work totally. Also, keep in mind again that inflation is only one of the effects that is responsible for the ever-increasing rise (yes I'm repeating myself :P). Population growth has been an extremely important aspect as well over the past 2 years.

 

 

 

Right now we're looking at ~600K member players

 

One year ago that was ~250K member players

 

The year before that it was ~70K member players

 

 

 

Ofcourse we expect the relative population growth to slow down more and more, but at the current state, if population growth directly translates to an increase in the price of rares, then rares will probably still double within a year.

 

 

 

Furthermore it just came to my mind that this idea will be hard to use on fletching. Fletching is a profitable / neutral skill to level, meaning it doesn't cost exp to level it. That means that few people will be interested to trade their high-alchable yew long (worth ~450gp if we substract nature costs) for exp. And ironically fletching is by far the largest gp creator these days as well.

 

 

 

The only real value in gp is that it can purchase you experience. If you were unable to purchase experience with your gp, it would be worthless.

 

 

 

Perception = not the truth :P. Rares are worth a lot gp because a lot of people are interested to buy it (even at these insane high prices!).

 

 

 

Actually the final truth is that any currency is worthless, no matter what it's used for. It's merely there to make trading easier and because everyone accept it as a way of payment, the currency has a "value".

 

 

 

You also suggest that higher levels will become more common due to all this. I disagree, because of the increased demand for raw materials.

 

 

 

Let's assume one steel plate is going to give ~60xp. Actually make it 62.5xp, that means that every steel bar provides 12.5 more xp. Since steel bars currently give 25xp that means an increase in xp of 50%. Or in other words, you'll only need 2/3rds of the steel bars that you needed before you could trade in steel plates for exp.

 

 

 

Materials will yield more xp due to this update and thus the demand for materials will drop. But also: because materials yield more xp and since the production of materials will stay the same or actually even increases, the total xp produced grows enormously --> thus much more higher leveled players.

 

 

 

You have no idea how eternally slow it is to gather your own materials to 99 in any skill. :P

 

 

 

I trained my firemaking to 99 without buying any logs, I know all about it :).

 

 

 

However, I think the idea will be rejected on other grounds by Jagex. The trend I've seen throughout the years, is that they try to make skills as "un-buyable" as possible. Although you can argue differently as farming is buyable - but keep in mind slayer and runecrafting are not.

 

 

 

I also really doubt whether many players like the idea of "buyable" skills.

[MagicianRS]

This is about the gayest thing ever then aton of santas would come back and be like 5k. Also the others 300 mil for a cracker ripp off just buy it on forums. There called rares for a reason because there rare, we can't bring in more of them. Then they wouldn't be called rares!! :evil: :evil: :evil:

[Raichase]

I also really doubt whether many players like the idea of "buyable" skills.

 

 

 

*Squeezes back in*

 

 

 

On second thoughts, I *don't* like the idea of buyable skills. Why? I want to br lvl 99 smithing one day. Now, thats due to my memories of "the glory days of smithing" which was when I made the leap from lvl 1 to lvl 2 smithing.

 

 

 

Granted, it won't be like the 99 smithing I used to dream about, but it will still be special. Or, at least it will be unless EVERYONE is 99 smithing too. Kinda takes away from the achievement a bit...

[Duke_Freedom]

Granted, it won't be like the 99 smithing I used to dream about, but it will still be special. Or, at least it will be unless EVERYONE is 99 smithing too. Kinda takes away from the achievement a bit...

 

 

 

Well, not everyone will be it. It will still cost ~150mil gp.

[Raichase]

Granted, it won't be like the 99 smithing I used to dream about, but it will still be special. Or, at least it will be unless EVERYONE is 99 smithing too. Kinda takes away from the achievement a bit...

 

 

 

Well, not everyone will be it. It will still cost ~150mil gp.

 

 

 

Well, I think you get what I mean. It won't be as much of an achievement, because it will be more accessable.

[ib2phat4u]

nice idea

 

i would rather rid the game of them totally

[Raichase]

nice idea

 

i would rather rid the game of them totally

 

 

 

Care to provide any reasoning, or would you rather make silly comments?

[X31x3]

Are you not joking with this?

 

 

 

If not then you are stupid...

 

 

 

Nothing personal...But some people ARE stupid.

[ixfd64]

You guys make very good points.

 

 

 

Also, someone has suggested that treasure trails give rare items. Not a bad idea, but this will still upset some merchants.

 

 

 

Maybe we need "level 4" trails (see my topic on "class 4 treasure trails" which I shall post shortly).

[Raichase]

Also, someone has suggested that treasure trails give rare items. Not a bad idea, but this will still upset some merchants.

 

 

 

Again, bad idea. Bringing more rares into the game is a bad idea. It's been said over and over again, but you would prefer to block your ears and only listen to those who agree.

 

 

 

Very sad...

[ixfd64]

Everyone has a right to criticize ideas constructively. However, some of your comments are leaning towards the insulting side.

 

 

 

Per forum guidelines:

 

 

 

Also - if you dislike someone's topic/idea, you should give *constructive* criticism, as the other kind (we all know what I'm referring to), is not appreciated, and nor will it help anything out - if you have nothing positive to contribute, please leave without posting.

[Raichase]

Everyone has a right to criticize ideas constructively. However, some of your comments are leaning towards the insulting side.

 

 

 

Yes, and we've all told you that BRINGING MORE RARES INTO THE GAME WON'T WORK. We also told you that there is NO PROBLEM WITH RARES, CERTAINLY NOT ONE THAT NEEDS FIXING, yet you continue to push that too.

 

 

 

Instead of actually REALISING that there is no problem, you (in lieu of any evidence) would rather ignore the logic and tell us we are flamers.

 

 

 

So, I figure, if you're going to ignore us and call us flamers, we may as well do it properly.

 

 

 

I honestly don't know how I can get more constructive than:

 

 

 

There is NO PROBLEM, and nothing needs to be fixed. Thus, it's a bad idea.

[x_bow80]

Sounds really cool, but they are rare because they dont drop them anymore :roll:

[unknowable]

when certain shops sell them, there will be more rares, if there are more rares, the price go down, at the end rares won't cost more then 100k or so...

[himy_name_is]

HOrrible ide, theres a reason rares were made. for status symbols. thats why they arent tradeable anymore. Plus disk of returning were meant so you could go in to the place banned people went and teleport back, not to be rare.