Over ther last 3 days I've been attacking Otherworldy Beings with a gusto, mainly to train but with a vague hope that maybe I'll get the elusive D'Square left half.

 

 

 

Now I killed over 2k when along comes a random player who kills less that twenty and, guess what he gets a D'Square left half. Super huge groan followed by severe loss of logical thinking, boy was i at first peeved and thats putting it politely.

 

 

 

So I summised that well are Random Drops really all that random? Is being the 1000th customer through a checkout, to win a years supply of loo paper random? Get my drift? Well I believe that when the 1000th, 5000th or even 10,000th monster dies Jagex give out a prize to that LUCKY git with the bronze dagger (lol) who slays the 5000th Fire Giant to recieve his/her D'Medium Helm.

 

 

 

It could also explain why some people do so well at Barrows or getting Dragon Whips etc?

I suppose in a way the "x thousandth" monster killed by whoever method makes sense and is one way to keep stuff rarer than if it was guarenteed that every player got a certain item after they killed so many monsters.

Yes in deed it is from this writers point purely LUCK. One player, told me he'd been to Barrows on at least 100 occasions with zero result (plenty of bolts racks), when a friend asked him to show him the ropes at Barrows he said why not.

 

 

 

After 20 trips, his friend much to his annoyance managed to get several pieces of Barrows armour and weapons. Don't know if they're still friends but it sure as hell must have stretched it some.

 

 

 

So how does Jagex work this drop to "x"th number of kills ? Does this cover every RS world or each world individualy? If say 10 friends got together and started killing Fire Giants together, keeping an accurate record of total kills untill the first drop say a D'Medium. Could they calculate after the second D'Medium drop when the next will occur?

Maybe they use a random number generator to decide whether you get a certain drop. :P

 

 

 

Say, a single digit has to be chosen for you to get a "rare" drop. More "rarer" drops would be alot harder to get (getting a single digit in a possible 200 digits let's say). Even though that's probably not the case, but this might explain the "random-ness".

 

 

 

Don't quote me on this though. I'm just speculating.

umm... that's the point of random drops. It wouldn't be random if they made it that you get a left half every so many you kill. That's why some people get it in 20 drops because it is random.

umm... that's the point of random drops. It wouldn't be random if they made it that you get a left half every so many you kill. That's why some people get it in 20 drops because it is random.

 

i think he meant every 10,000 in all of runescape killed. so if (hypothetically) we two ate the onley two player in all of runescape, and, for example, you kill 9,999 otherworldley beings and i kill 1, then i would get the left half becasue i killed the 10,000th. i think that is what he is geting at

 

 

 

back on topic: i dont think thats how they do it because it would take waaaay too much space to track all those kills. and servers cost money and stuff. i think they just use a random number generator (although sometimes they tend to be a little odd sometimes)

nCr x q^r x p ^(n-r)

 

 

 

Does that formula look familiar to anyone here? It's a probability formula. n is total tries, r is total successful tries, q is probability of success, p is probability of failure.

 

 

 

I was actually going to work this out for you but something does'nt seem right in that formula. I think i might have messed up the formula somehow, but It's been a while since i used it.

umm... that's the point of random drops. It wouldn't be random if they made it that you get a left half every so many you kill. That's why some people get it in 20 drops because it is random.

 

i think he meant every 10,000 in all of runescape killed. so if (hypothetically) we two ate the onley two player in all of runescape, and, for example, you kill 9,999 otherworldley beings and i kill 1, then i would get the left half becasue i killed the 10,000th. i think that is what he is geting at

 

 

 

back on topic: i dont think thats how they do it because it would take waaaay too much space to track all those kills. and servers cost money and stuff. i think they just use a random number generator (although sometimes they tend to be a little odd sometimes)

 

 

 

Yea but that still make's it random on who gets it.

How Random are Random Drops?

 

 

 

Random.

I vaguely recall, not sure if it was just another speculation, the rare drops are on a "second wheel", where the first spin gives you a choice of common drop, or a rare one, then the second spin gives you a rare or not so rare one out of the better drops.

Whether or not there is a second wheel is immaterial in probabalistic terms. If it is assumed that the probability of getting a rare drop on the first wheel is p(rare) and the probability of getting a certain rare drop, e.g. d left half, on the second wheel is given as p(2ndWheel) then the overall probability of getting a d left half on any kill is a fixed value of:

 

 

 

p(d left half) = p(rare)*p(2ndWheel)

 

 

 

This probability can then be used in the binomial probability mass function to calculate the probability of achieving one drop in n kills.

 

 

 

The observation that one d left is dropped per x kills is not unreasonable, the binomial distribution itself shows that the overall probability of a drop occurring in x kills increases as x increases, however the individual results will be independent. THat is to say the fact that the guy next to you got a d left does not in any way affect the likliehood of you getting one on your present or future kills.

 

 

 

Thats just my opinion but there aren't that many ways of doing these things...